Syria 2012 - the year of blood

[smokingjacket]

Because energy independence is a first tier security concern. The last labour govt disregarded it and now the tories are having to suck up to the Chinese to build very expensive nuclear power plants (not to mention seeing the steel industry crippled)

Obama mightn't give a stuff about big oil but what about blue collar unions? Shale gas have given the US a big cost advantage and protected a huge number of union jobs.

Yeah this is purely oil though. As you say natural gas fracking is still going well to power the steel industry and manufacturing. There's no way that shale oil would have the same effect until it became much cheaper.

Obama has said it himself a number of times, one of the main planks of his energy independence strategy is reduced energy use through efficiency standards and on the other side substitution through renewables and electric cars. Fracking is part of the mix.

 

[blackcat]

I put one too many u's in Zbigniew Brzezinski.

and it is not my fault, how the heck did his parents expect to spell his freekin name.

Chief, he of unmatched wisdom need you to enter Zbigniew Bzrezinski into spell correction brah

ta

 

[smokingjacket]

yes
yes they do

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halford_Mackinder
Halford Mackinder's geopolitics and Heartland Theory
this is where Zbignieuw Zbrezinski got his Grand Chessboard from

lilly-pads, world as lilly-pad bases for Pentagon and DC. The fact that Da'esh or Da'aesh or however you spell it, and IS and ISIS and whichever damn acronym they wish to go by today, is merely a convenient confluence of justification. Like KONY and Africa.

if you have a base, the Sinos and the Russo's cant have a base. If you have a base, you can have a pipeline. The Sinos and the Russo's cant have a pipeline. If you have Syria, the Russo's cant have their only port in the Mediterranean in Tartus can they

they dont have their thousand plus bases dotted across the world just for convenience you dont think? or just in stable zones?

thats alot of bases for them merely being in stable zones. thats a shitload of bases for stable zones. About 30 in each stable zone country. Thats alot of bases to put in a country in a stable zone.

I understand the concept but why pull out in the first place? Either a gross tactical blunder or they come back in just to prove a point.

EDIT: as in dishing out a smack was the point of the thing. You need us etc.

 

[blackcat]

I understand the concept but why pull out in the first place? Either a gross tactical blunder or they come back in just to prove a point.

they had their embassy(small city like Vatican, its own religion too)

they "pulled out" just like they "surged".

they did nothing of the kind. they did neither.

it was all about messaging and massaging and managing the domestic populace. ie. politics.

and Academi/Xe/Blackwater and Triple Canopy are still their army. Just private not public.

 

[smokingjacket]

they had their embassy(small city like Vatican, its own religion too)

they "pulled out" just like they "surged".

they did nothing of the kind. they did neither.

it was all about messaging and massaging and managing the domestic populace. ie. politics.

and Academi/Xe/Blackwater and Triple Canopy are still their army. Just private not public.

Bloody expensive messaging exercise. I guess here is the point. Are the Russians/Chinese or anyone else for that matter, really under the impression that Iraq is up for grabs? Does the US need those bases if they already control that region. I'll be honest, I don't have any good anecdotes or recent illuminating articles from ex-State cranks but it just seems, unnecessary? Not sure.

I think it's feasible for motive which is why I pulled it out. Need some convincing though.

P.S. are you watching the cricket?

I reckon medusala could bowl better offies than this pie merchant.

 

[blackcat]

Bloody expensive messaging exercise. I guess here is the point. Are the Russians/Chinese or anyone else for that matter, really under the impression that Iraq is up for grabs? Does the US need those bases if they already control that region. I'll be honest, I don't have any good anecdotes or recent illuminating articles from ex-State cranks but it just seems, unnecessary? Not sure.

I think it's feasible for motive which is why I pulled it out. Need some convincing though.

P.S. are you watching the cricket?

I reckon medusala could bowl better offies than this pie merchant.

well, dick Cheney did say that Deficits dont matter, didnt he meds

medusala


funny that line, the ALP should have got hold of that in their political campaigns. and that is not the ALP political campaigners Chief, he of unmatched wisdom swear filter neither

#hawkerbrittonfail

 

[little graham]

You do know where Da'esh get US weapons from don't you?

Straight from America,its a matter of public record,.

And you do know why these Iraqis are pushing this bullshit line?

What about your bullshit? It can be smelt a thousand miles away. You still haven't proved that jimmy carters defense secretary was lying when he admitted created Al Queida to drag Russia into a war in Afghanistan.

(Hint - it is because they ran away from Da'esh like cowards last year, now they have to come up with an excuse why)

Are you calling our air force cowards? they failed against ISIS as well

 

[MaddAdam]

Straight from America,its a matter of public record,.



What about your bullshit? It can be smelt a thousand miles away. You still haven't proved that jimmy carters defense secretary was lying when he admitted created Al Queida to drag Russia into a war in Afghanistan.



Are you calling our air force cowards? they failed against ISIS as well

"Public record" lol.

They captured vast quantities of US weapons when they took Mosul and Ramadi. Enough to outfit an entire US armoured division.

The US and its allies are also supplying this stuff to a range of Syrian groups. Da'esh is simply capturing it from them, or buying it.

Did you see what happened to the first group of "moderates" the US trained and sent into Syria? They promptly handed their stuff over to Jabhat Al Nusra.

Jabhat are Al Qaeda, but they're also blood enemies of Da'esh.

Your misunderstanding of what happened in Afghanistan is mind boggling. The US certainly did provide huge amounts of cash and weapons to Islamist resistance there, but it was distributed by the ISI. It went to groups led by people like the Haqqanis and Gulbuddin Hekmatyr.

I posted Jason Burke's stuff to you regarding the lies about US links to Bin Laden and Qaeda a few weeks back.

The Americans love to claim credit for what happened in Afghanistan after the event. But the role of the Afghan Arabs in the Soviet defeat is massively overplayed.

What actually happened is the Soviets withdrew in good order. And Najibullah hung on for three years afterwards and only lost when the Soviet Union broke apart and stopped funding him.

If you talked about US involvement with Al Qaeda linked/type jihadis in Bosnia in the early 90s, I'd agree with you.

I suspect you just conflate any Muslim armed groups with "Al Qaeda". Ffs, "Al Qaeda" wasn't even formed until 1988.

I'm amazed you buy CIA spin hook, line and sinker. I'm also amazed that you seem to believe a bunch of brown people couldn't beat a major power without white man's help.

I think it was smokingjacket who very clearly tore your s**t about the CIA giving Da'esh all their Toyotas apart.

Every single source on the ground in Syria, you know, the people living and breathing that horror every day, points out that Da'esh and Assad work together.

Da'esh have existed for over a decade. When the revolution began in 2011 Assad let all the jihadis out of his jails to turn the revolution jihadist.

Assad's mukhabarat were the key interlocutor for foreign jihadis travelling to Iraq to fight the Americans in the Iraq War. They worked hand in glove with Da'esh (in its previous incarnations).

Our air force haven't "failed" against Da'esh. They just haven't been given the task of really hurting them. The missions they fly are for show more than anything.

Also, the US and Australia are way too risky averse. Did you see what Da'esh did to the Jordanian pilot they captured?

We are taking no risk of that happening. That's why our missions are high altitude hit and run affairs conducted from well above the range of MANPADS.

The Russians however are not afraid of taking casualties and they are also there to win. They need to save Assad. That's why they have the Hinds and the Frogfoots flying treetop close air support.

They are using the old Eastern Front Shturmovik tactics.

I honestly can't believe that you are taking that bullshit spun by those Iraqi officers at face value.

And for someone who says the US military/intelligence operation is full of lies, which it largely is, you do pick and choose certain bits that you then hold as an article of faith.

The US did not "create" Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The ISI used money and arms the Americans gave them to build up jihadist type groups there. Same with the Taliban.

ISI created the Taliban as strategic depth as part of the one game that matters to Pakistan - the ongoing war with India.

If you honestly think the US is running direct arms flights to Da'esh you're plain stupid.

Especially when they actually ARE arming Al-Qaeda in Syria ... that is Jabhat Al Nusra ... via their Gulf proxies.

It amazes me tv at just the other day you posted an article (I'm presuming you didn't read past the top line) that demonstrated just how cosy the relationship between Da'esh and Assad is. They run freaking' power plants together.

Notice now how in Aleppo now Da'esh is happily working hand in glove with Assad to encircle the other forces like Jabhat and Ahrar Al Sham and Jaish Al Fatah so they can be incinerated by the Russian fuel air explosives?

 

[awaremind]

So lets just see how honest the USA are being about Russia's actions in Syria.
My bullshit detector actually exploded

The feeling is Assad and Russia want peace and stability, The USA does not, which makes me wonder if how EU is affected is an important part of this strategy.

 

[MaddAdam]

So lets just see how honest the USA are being about Russia's actions in Syria.
My bullshit detector actually exploded

The feeling is Assad and Russia want peace and stability, The USA does not, which makes me wonder if how EU is affected is an important part of this strategy.

Assad and the Russians don't want peace. They want peace talks that "freeze" the situation on the ground and give the SAA some breathing space.

 

[smokingjacket]

Great summary post before MA.

 

[blackcat]

Its RT tho. soft power tv channel just a wolf in sheep's clothing... tv softpower by other word(s) propaganda

 

[blackcat]

My bullshit detector actually exploded

pretty easy to cut the footage and have an experienced journalist asking beggingquestions that indict

not that this presumes the scenario is not correct. And they are giving RT access to the press conferences and the ability for questions... land of free and all that

 

[awaremind]

pretty easy to cut the footage and have an experienced journalist asking beggingquestions that indict

not that this presumes the scenario is not correct. And they are giving RT access to the press conferences and the ability for questions... land of free and all that

Well they'd have to give up that slogan and go for land of the exceptional if they were allowed to go full Goebbels.

 

[awaremind]

Assad and the Russians don't want peace. They want peace talks that "freeze" the situation on the ground and give the SAA some breathing space.

Huh?The myth of the moderate rebel has been laughed at and rejected, There is no realistic alternative to Assad he most likely wants full control of the country back.
They are trying to knock them out as fast as they can too, Russia wants to do it as quickly as possible. That's the only good strategy. I'm sure they will attempt to surge against rebel groups as long as they can afford to. They are fighting for the lives of the millions of people in Damascus who fled the crazy headchopping snackbars. They need to drive them to Saudi Arabia where their philosophy comes from.

 

[medusala]

The Americans love to claim credit for what happened in Afghanistan after the event. But the role of the Afghan Arabs in the Soviet defeat is massively overplayed.

What actually happened is the Soviets withdrew in good order.

IIRC the Soviets didn't suffer the loss of a single outpost. No idea how much there is to the theory that the stinger missiles dramatically changed things.

 

[medusala]

Isn't there an argument that the rise of fracking was linked to the burst of invented easy QE money in the States? That is, it was viable at record oil prices and when the start up costs where literally negligible in interest terms on the borrowing?

Yes I think that's true. Banks certainly threw a heap of cash at it. Now even before rates have risen much they are in trouble with oil at $50/bbl or less. Meanwhile the Saudis have destroyed their own wheat industry. US, Saudi, Russia all hurting to one extent.

From Zero Hedge

Despite torrid weather and virtually no rain, the world’s largest oil producer once grew so much of the grain that its exports could feed Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Yemen. The circular wheat farms, half a mile across with a central sprinkler system, spread across the desert in the 1980s and 1990s, visible in spring to anyone overflying the Arabian peninsula as green spots amid a dun sea of sand.

The oilfields remain, but the last wheat farms have just disappeared to save the aquifers supplying them. For the first time, Saudi Arabia will rely almost completely on wheat imports in 2016, a reversal from its policy of self-sufficiency. It will become a full member of the club of Middle Eastern nations that, according to the commodity-trade adage, "sell hydrocarbons to buy carbohydrates."




Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Al-Fares, managing director of the Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization, the state agency in charge of cereal imports, told an industry conference in Riyadh last month that Saudi Arabia will import 3.5 million metric tons in 2016. That’s a 10-fold increase from about 300,000 tons in 2008, the first year local crops were curtailed. An agency presentation says the kingdom will rely on imports for "100 percent" of its wheat in 2016 for the first time.

Saudi Arabia became a net exporter of wheat in 1984 from producing almost none in the 1970s. The self-sufficiency program became a victim of its own success, however, as it quickly depleted aquifers that haven’t been filled since the last Ice Age. In an unexpected U-turn, the government said in 2008 it was phasing out the policy, reducing purchases of domestic wheat each year by 12.5 percent and bridging the gap progressively with imports

 

[little graham]

[

So lets just see how honest the USA are being about Russia's actions in Syria.
My bullshit detector actually exploded

The feeling is Assad and Russia want peace and stability, The USA does not, which makes me wonder if how EU is affected is an important part of this strategy.

The west is losing Germany slowly but surely. I would not be surprised if their into this somehow so they can slip away quicker and safer. They have been propping up Europe for awhile now, and transforming their economy towards a carbon neutral one, ending nuclear power. It's only a matter of time, they see everything differently to our right wing extremism.

 

[evo]

What are the Ruskies up to?

Should I be restocking my fall out shelter?

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Assad and the Russians don't want peace. They want peace talks that "freeze" the situation on the ground and give the SAA some breathing space.

They DO want peace. The same peace that the United States wants from its own point of view.

Peace on terms favourable to THEM.

 

[little graham]

What are the Ruskies up to?

Changing the whole face of the middle east by destroying Americas Arab militias, ironic that Obama doesn't mind. He didn't like them either, look at his stand against the Iraq war.

 

[little graham]

Make no mistake, this has gone beyond absurd and is now bordering on the bizarre. It’s apparently not enough that the US is supplying anti-tank missiles to rebels shooting at the very same Iran-backed militias that the US implicitly supports across the border in Iraq so now, the CIA and Saudi Arabia will give these rebels the firepower to shoot down planes, meaning that in the “best” case scenario they’ll be firing at Russian fighter jets, and in the worst case scenario these weapons will end up in the “wrong” hands and be used to down commercial flights.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...-weapons-capable-downing-commercial-airliners

 

[MaddAdam]

Huh?The myth of the moderate rebel has been laughed at and rejected, There is no realistic alternative to Assad he most likely wants full control of the country back.
They are trying to knock them out as fast as they can too, Russia wants to do it as quickly as possible. That's the only good strategy. I'm sure they will attempt to surge against rebel groups as long as they can afford to. They are fighting for the lives of the millions of people in Damascus who fled the crazy headchopping snackbars. They need to drive them to Saudi Arabia where their philosophy comes from.

I think they want to win a big fight in Aleppo then dash to the border and cut the supply lines. Then go for peace talks in a magnanimous fashion.

But Assad is struggling for manpower and moralee. They need a break.

 

[MaddAdam]

IIRC the Soviets didn't suffer the loss of a single outpost. No idea how much there is to the theory that the stinger missiles dramatically changed things.

The Soviets were far more effective in Afghanistan than the US

 

[Lebbo73]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...-weapons-capable-downing-commercial-airliners

I saw something a couple of years ago about this maybe happening in Europe not long from now. Plenty of SAM's apparently disappeared from Libya after Gaddafi's execution style murder!