Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[LordLucifer]

It's hard to compare a pea heart with Phar Lap

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People on this very forum were in raptures when Menzel re-signed with the club, its all too easy with the value of hindsight isn't it ??

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

People on this very forum were in raptures when Menzel re-signed with the club, its all too easy with the value of hindsight isn't it ??

2 year grace period for a talented young player. Had shown some skill and we were all hoping he would build a tank and play midfield, as he declared he wanted to do. Come 2015, his efforts decreased and the annoyance began.

Can't see how being happy that a young player with potential re-signed in 2014 correlates with being okay with him leaving after his efforts fell away in 2015.

 

[Cringle]

People on this very forum were in raptures when Menzel re-signed with the club, its all too easy with the value of hindsight isn't it ??

Reckon Sumner will be better than him.

 

[LordLucifer]

Can't see how being happy that a young player with potential re-signed in 2014 correlates with being okay with him leaving after his efforts fell away in 2015.

His efforts had started to fall away before he signed the new contract.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

His efforts had started to fall away before he signed the new contract.

He was better in 2014 than he was in 2015 and he hadn't even turned 20 in his second season. If you aren't improving in your third season and actually get dropped for not meeting on field standards, I dare say there is a reason other than hindsight when supporters are fine for you to be traded.

 

[djw1952]

Why is curnow gone by 2018?? He would be top 5 in our bnf

plus he is a good minder for his little brother............no he deserves to be there on form.

 

[DangerousD]

Thomas may well get an extension beyond next year.........just not on the same money though.

If that is the case then keeping him is fine, the list management team will know if this is likely come seasons end. If at this stage they don't see him getting an extension then he should be moved on if a club will offer a third/fourth, a future third/fourth or packaged with another player to get us a second.

If no one will offer anything then he stays, i am not for him being delisted.

 

[ODNBlue]

Reckon Sumner will be better than him.

Reckon Sumner already is.

 

[DangerousD]

On this year's form, he stays.

Deciding someone will get an extension for 2018 and beyond on 2016 is a bit dangerous.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Deciding someone will get an extension for 2018 and beyond on 2016 is a bit dangerous.

Well, that's why we use disclaimers citing this year's form. Remember you are suggesting that if we aren't going to keep him beyond 2017, we should offload him this year which would necessitate paying some of his salary.

I am suggesting he is playing well enough to see out his contract then assess things. No way the club are looking at whether he will be gone after the next 18 months.

Your username may have you seeing danger where a simple risk assessment would suffice. That's my bag.

 

[DangerousD]

Well, that's why we use disclaimers citing this year's form. Remember you are suggesting that if we aren't going to keep him beyond 2017, we should offload him this year which would necessitate paying some of his salary.

I am suggesting he is playing well enough to see out his contract then assess things. No way the club are looking at whether he will be gone after the next 18 months.

Your username may have you seeing danger where a simple risk assessment would suffice. That's my bag.

Hahahaha. He is playing ok footy and i like him. Our club and every other club for that matter should be looking forward to 2018 with their list management. Not being able to look ahead more than 12 months is what cost the Cats a high pick for Johnson, it is what cost the Giants a first round pick for Tomlinson, cost the Pies possibly a first round pick for Cloke. SOS and co should know by the end of this year at least whether they think Daisy has more than 1 season left in him.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Hahahaha. He is playing ok footy and i like him. Our club and every other club for that matter should be looking forward to 2018 with their list management. Not being able to look ahead more than 12 months is what cost the Cats a high pick for Johnson, it is what cost the Giants a first round pick for Tomlinson, cost the Pies possibly a first round pick for Cloke. SOS and co should know by the end of this year at least whether they think Daisy has more than 1 season left in him.

What you are mostly looking at this far out is what sort of players you need. Part of that might be whether you need to start looking at replacing an aging player. Usually that applies to KPPs and ruckmen as you don't carry a lot of those on the list. You probably don't start looking at whether you need to replace a flanker.

Just can't see them thinking that Thomas will turn 30 next year, that we can't tell if he will still be playing well or not, so we might offload him a year earlier just in case. His trade value will be minimal and his desire to be traded will be too.

Giants also held firm on Tomlinson because they stood firm on McCarthy and didn't want to be seen to be hypocritical. We don't know what that decision has cost them yet because they have not accepted an offer for him.

As for Johnson, the Cats mistake was thinking he didn't have anything left and cutting him loose, not holding on to him too long. You wouldn't see Hawthorn offloading Hodge or Mitchell because they were on their last legs. They will retire graciously as one club champions, and rightly so.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

A lot of people said the same thing about Menzel yet Bolton & SOS had no hesitation in moving him on.

If Menzel had shown the same hunger and determination of Curnow then he would not have been moved on.

 

[DangerousD]

His trade value will be minimal and his desire to be traded will be too.

If i was Thomas and at the end of the 2016 season was told by the club that they thought it was unlikely that i would be offered a contract beyond 2017 i would look elsewhere, if another club was willing to offer me two years it would be an easy decision. Yes his value may be low on his own but added to a trade with Everitt or Graham or White or Buckley might appeal to some. If there are no offers then he stays and who knows he might play for another 2-3 seasons.

We are one of the oldest teams in the league, at the end of the year i think something will be done about this. Me wanting to replace Thomas only applies if we can get a draft pick for him or a higher pick for him and another player.

 

[DangerousD]

Giants also held firm on Tomlinson because they stood firm on McCarthy and didn't want to be seen to be hypocritical. We don't know what that decision has cost them yet because they have not accepted an offer for him.

As for Johnson, the Cats mistake was thinking he didn't have anything left and cutting him loose, not holding on to him too long. You wouldn't see Hawthorn offloading Hodge or Mitchell because they were on their last legs. They will retire graciously as one club champions, and rightly so.

All of this is easy in hindsight of course, i can't help but think though if the Cats would have been more open with Johnson at the end of 2014 say and said we only see you having 1 more year before we think we need to go with youth, or Collingwood at the end of last year telling Cloke they didn't see him as part of their long term plans, or they possibly might of thought he was going to be.

But i think it is clear that a club that can accurately foresee these things before their opponents will have an advantage going forward.

 

[Big Sim is Back]

All of this is easy in hindsight of course, i can't help but think though if the Cats would have been more open with Johnson at the end of 2014 say and said we only see you having 1 more year before we think we need to go with youth, or Collingwood at the end of last year telling Cloke they didn't see him as part of their long term plans, or they possibly might of thought he was going to be.

But i think it is clear that a club that can accurately foresee these things before their opponents will have an advantage going forward.

I think with the Cats and Johnson they had to choose between veterans and decided Enright and Bartel were the keepers for reasons of reliability. Johnson is a great player but he is a maverick on the field and can do the silly as well as the sublime. GWS has enough youthful guns to have a spot for someone with his character. Cats obviously thought that they could fill any hole he left with Motlop being a younger maverick.

 

[ParapMarkets]

If i was Thomas and at the end of the 2016 season was told by the club that they thought it was unlikely that i would be offered a contract beyond 2017 i would look elsewhere, if another club was willing to offer me two years it would be an easy decision. Yes his value may be low on his own but added to a trade with Everitt or Graham or White or Buckley might appeal to some. If there are no offers then he stays and who knows he might play for another 2-3 seasons.

We are one of the oldest teams in the league, at the end of the year i think something will be done about this. Me wanting to replace Thomas only applies if we can get a draft pick for him or a higher pick for him and another player.

We have the equal 9th oldest list and really when you look at the age profile there is not much difference between us and the 3rd youngest list (Gold Coast). Our age profile will get younger over the coming years as the mediocre older players get replaced by youth.

Whilst many in the media are obsessed by the age profile, there is no need to panic and just dump players who can contribute positively. If Daisy is still contributing what he currently is then he will likely get another contract (on much less money). There will be a lot of older players moved on over the next two pre-seasons, our average age will reduce naturally without getting rid of good players that have very little trade value.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

All of this is easy in hindsight of course, i can't help but think though if the Cats would have been more open with Johnson at the end of 2014 say and said we only see you having 1 more year before we think we need to go with youth, or Collingwood at the end of last year telling Cloke they didn't see him as part of their long term plans, or they possibly might of thought he was going to be.

But i think it is clear that a club that can accurately foresee these things before their opponents will have an advantage going forward.

In 2014, Geelong finished 3rd after the home and away season with a 17-5 record. Johnson averaged nearly 26 disposals and 5 I50s per game from 18 games. He tallied 19 Brownlow votes.

In 2015, they tumbled down the ladder. Johnson played up forward more and only averaged 20 disposals per game. It was the fall down the ladder that had Geelong deciding to embrace youth. They had no reason to go earlier on Johnson.

 

[BlueJet]

In 2014, Geelong finished 3rd after the home and away season with a 17-5 record. Johnson averaged nearly 26 disposals and 5 I50s per game from 18 games. He tallied 19 Brownlow votes.

In 2015, they tumbled down the ladder. Johnson played up forward more and only averaged 20 disposals per game. It was the fall down the ladder that had Geelong deciding to embrace youth. They had no reason to go earlier on Johnson.

Once they turned down what was a pretty good offer from GWS there was no real reason to trade him - unless they felt he was having a negative impact.

 

[Soapy V]

Yes, all true. But let's not forget that Brad Sewell ended up a two-time premiership player in the 'greatest' side since Brisbane of the 2000s (before injuries got him). Not all players have to be superstars for a team to succeed.

i understand your theory but i would rate sewell a long way ahead of curnow

 

[Soapy V]

If Menzel had shown the same hunger and determination of Curnow then he would not have been moved on.

i think that was only part of the issue. i dont think he is that good

 

[Mezzoculo]

i understand your theory but i would rate sewell a long way ahead of curnow

Compare their stats, they're pretty evenly matched. Its easy to remember Sewell as the 'better' player as he was a member of a champion team, while Ed has often not had the same amount of talent around him.

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/B/Brad_Sewell.html
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/E/Ed_Curnow.html#teamp

 

[Soapy V]

Compare their stats, they're pretty evenly matched. Its easy to remember Sewell as the 'better' player as he was a member of a champion team, while Ed has often not had the same amount of talent around him.

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/B/Brad_Sewell.html
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/E/Ed_Curnow.html#teamp

i dont look at stats. i just make my opinion on what i see and being part of and doing well in a winning side is huge in my opinion. he was so important in that period. i just rate sewell very highly.

 

[1981]

Curnow is 110% blood and guts effort. That type of person will likely continue to produce for a few years yet. I cannot see Carlton and Curnow parting ways in the next few years. At worst he is a great tagger.

Thomas I feel has lost so much zip, pace, and I feel his days are fairly numbered. In saying that, he is a proud footballer, and IF he can stay injury free his rennaisance of sorts could continue (be a surprise but stranger things have happened).

 

[Soapy V]

the more i think about it the more i would be very happy getting marchbank tomlinson & steele. could we then add Brad Crouch as well? it would make a big difference to our list. all talented and still young. add another 4-5 draft picks inside top 50 and that would be another great trade period. I could then see us finishing bottom 3 next year where we can add another 4-5 gun players through the draft.