Teams Team Development (Final Two Weeks)

[enobrien]

Hey all,

Ive made a group just for us BF Forum users. Ive set it to private! I would like it if we could get a little comp going! Details:
BigFooty.com Users (213318)

Hey mate, Jiska makes one every year and it's been up for a while already, in the stickied threads.

http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/group?cic=308844

 

[LeonsSupercoach]

Hey mate, Jiska makes one every year and it's been up for a while already, in the stickied threads.

http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/group?cic=308844

The link doesn't seem to work for me? Can i still keep my BigFooty names one, otherwise ill rename it and set it back to public.

Cheers

Edit: Renamed the group and took away big footy title! I've just named it SuperCoachSlam and now set on public. However everyone is still welcome to join. I'm not the best SC player but I am hoping to improve this year!

 

[enobrien]

The link doesn't seem to work for me? Can i still keep my BigFooty names one, otherwise ill rename it and set it back to public.

Cheers

Yeah my bad, that doesnt work. Just go to the thread name "Official Big Footy Supercoach group"

 

[Zane3003]

Hi guys,

Haven't done supercoach for past couple of years back into it for this season to join a mates league, can i get some views on my team, bit late putting this together....

 

[NinjaSwan]

I've been busy the last couple weeks so hadn't really been able to look at my team until today, this is what I've decided on at the moment:

34k in the bank

Fairly happy with it, tried to avoid mid price players for the most part but couldn't resist O'Meara. No Beams may backfire, I originally had him in over Parker but with over 200k left over I upgraded him, as I don't expect Beams to go 110+.

Any feedback appreciated, thanks.

 

[big bootaaaaah]

I've been busy the last couple weeks so hadn't really been able to look at my team until today, this is what I've decided on at the moment:
View attachment 348747
34k in the bank

Fairly happy with it, tried to avoid mid price players for the most part but couldn't resist O'Meara. No Beams may backfire, I originally had him in over Parker but with over 200k left over I upgraded him, as I don't expect Beams to go 110+.

Any feedback appreciated, thanks.

No sandi? He's in good fitness atm and the no third man up rule suits him, with his height he should dominate.

 

[NinjaSwan]

No sandi? He's in good fitness atm and the no third man up rule suits him, with his height he should dominate.

I saw he said he wants to play the entire season, but I have no faith in him playing anywhere near 22 games at 34 years old. Though Gawn>Sandi and Rookie>Beams is tempting...

 

[big bootaaaaah]

I saw he said he wants to play the entire season, but I have no faith in him playing anywhere near 22 games at 34 years old. Though Gawn>Sandi and Rookie>Beams is tempting...

He wants to play another 2 seasons

 

[Mex13]

Where do I downgrade to get some cash to help with rookies?

 

[peppy la pew]

If Sandi's body holds up he will play most games, he will also spend a lot more time up forward.

 

[PoopingHindi]

Where do I downgrade to get some cash to help with rookies?

Roughead to a WHE, Toranto, Florent, Simpkin, Turner type?
or Gawn to a cheaper ruck?

 

[Ex President]

Hi all, I'm interested in getting feedback on this team. Of course I'm more interested in the assessment of my reasoning than just "Pick/don't pick player x, who is a gun/spud". I've been pretty unsuccessful in my two years of Supercoach so far, so any general strategy/tactics (including whether I've misinterpreted my cited sources) I seem to need will be more than welcome. To that end, I've included my reasons for omitting some of the really popular picks, and would appreciate feedback as to the soundness of such reasoning.

Backs​

Selections ($2,346,100)

• Heath Shaw ($576,500). Has scored really well and played 22 games for the past two years. He therefore strikes me as the player with the highest probability of ending the season as a top 6 back. His average actually dropped slightly last year. Players who do this tend to improve their average the following season [1].
• Rory Laird ($526,800). Similar to Shaw, albeit with a bit more injury risk, and probably a higher likelihood of further increasing his average. Basically just a deliberate cookie-cutter pick.
• Tom McDonald ($488,200). Another player who has scored well and played 22 games the last two years now. Has a very high ceiling and is still young enough that he could improve. His slight decline last year bodes well for his value this year [1].
• Caleb Marchbank ($236,100). Cookie-cutter rookie selection. Seems to be general consensus amongst Carlton supporters that he's a best-22 lock and he scored pretty well in the JLT.
• Curtly Hampton ($160,000). Similar to Marchbank, but thankfully with a significantly lower price.
• Andy Otten ($123,900). Looks likely to get a few games at the start of the year and in a Supercoach friendly role.
• Tom Stewart ($117,300). Really cheap rookie who looks likely to play the first few rounds at least.
• Joel Smith ($117,300). Similar to Stewart. The fact that he's being considered in spite of his prior injury bodes well for his job security.

Omissions

• Sam Docherty ($591,600). Increased his average by 20+ points last year. This historically does not bode well [2].​
• Taylor Adams ($527,800). Highly injury prone, meaning that it's very likely he'd have to be traded out. At his price I would want someone with a lower probability of wasting a trade.​

Midfielders​

Selections ($4,393,400)​

• Patrick Dangerfield ($716,900). Basically just a cookie-cutter pick, I'm not nearly as bullish on him as most people seem to be. For one, I'm expecting his average to drop this year, after he 12 point rise last year after what had already been a PB season in 2015. I'm also not so sure about the argument based upon Geelong's easy start to the year, since he doesn't seem to be much of a flat-track bully scoring wise. But the general consensus seems to be that any average of 120+ would still make him a worthwhile pick, given his ceiling and therefore potential value as captain. I'd certainly back him to do that.
• Adam Treloar ($605,400). A fairly young player who has scored consistently well and missed very few games for the past three years now. Still offers potential to improve, especially given that his preseason this year has been much better than it was last year.
• Nat Fyfe ($573,500). A clear violation of my general rule not to pick injury prone premiums. His ceiling relative to his price however means that I think I have to start with him.
• Tom Mitchell ($565,600). Another reasonably young, consistent player. His move to a now depleted Hawthorn midfield gives him plenty of opportunity to win the ball, as he has demonstrated in the JLT! The usual tagging caveat that would come with such a move seems unlikely given his relatively ineffective disposal.
• Dyson Heppell ($513,300). Yet another young, consistent player, but with the added bonus of a 10% discount courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood injection program. Hasn't left my side all season.
• Dayne Beams ($432,500). Has averaged ~115 since 2012, but is priced to average under 80. He's injury prone, but I'm willing to take that risk on a mid-pricer. Assuming that three mid-pricers are equivalent to one gun and two rookies, and assuming that the latter approach will require an average of two trades, the mid-pricers need only a one-in-three chance of being a keeper to actually save a trade.
• Jaeger O'Meara ($318,900). Similar to Beams, but with lower scores and, thankfully, a lower price. I'm particularly excited about his age: Jaeger is now in his fifth season, albeit only his third playing season. Players going into their third years improve their average by a mean of 7 points [3]. Players in their fifth years will have by an average 16 points compared to their second year [3]. Of course, I would expect something closer to this former in his case, but even that would bring him just under 105, which would be an absolute steal at his price.
• David Swallow ($280,200). Similar to the above, but cheaper still and probably with a lower ceiling. I'm willing to take all three on the basis of the trade saving reasoning explained under Beams.
• Sam Powell-Pepper ($135,300). Don't think I really need to justify him. Would've liked to have started him on the field, and would predict an average of 70-80, but the abundance of mid-pricers has pushed him to the bench.
• Jake Barrett ($127,900). Similar to Powell-Pepper, contingent of course upon Brisbane upgrading him from the rookie list.
• Jarrod Pickett ($123,900). Another cookie-cutter rookie, who thankfully has been selected for round one. Offers my only DPP link.

Omissions​

• Scott Pendlebury ($645,700). Would've liked to have started him but he doesn't really fit with my structure. He's also had some slight injury problems. Will be an upgrade target.

Rucks​

Selections (896,600)

• Todd Goldstein ($588,400). Has been a consistently high scorer for the last few years. Last year he not only continued that trend but also showed a remarkable resilience for playing through injury. As someone whose average dropped by over 20 points last year, he can be expected to at least equal it this year [1].
• Aaron Sandilands ($308,200). Yet another injury prone mid-pricer. His JLT form was very impressive, suggesting that he still has a very high ceiling. Has the potential to offer both significant cash generation and high scoring. If, for instance, he scored 100 in every game until round ten - in fact a significant drop on his past two full seasons - his price would rise by over $170k [4]. And he'd only need to make it to round five to gain $100k [4]. With this value, combined with his ability as a mid-pricer to save a trade, his reward seems to far outweigh his risk.
• Jarrod Witts ($217,600). That being said, Sandilands does still provide a lot of risk, particularly for late withdrawals. The selection of Witts is largely to counterbalance that. Although rather expensive for a rookie, I also like Witts' cash generation potential. As Gold Coast's first-choice ruck I'd say his unlikely to average below 65. At this point he'd already be below even Lobbe 2015 and Leuenberger 2016 - and I'm not sure it's possible to be much worse than them. But even then he'd have gained $94k by round 10, even assuming a standard deviation of zero [4]. In a more optimistic scenario wherein he averages 80 he would have risen over $160k by then [4]. Given the scarcity of quality rookies this his year his price seems worth paying.

Omissions

• Max Gawn ($645,000). Gawn is coming off a 16-point career high. This doesn't quite put him in the CLYP category [2], but still suggests he is likely to be rather overpriced. Rucks in particular have seemed prone to fall off the cliff after massive breakout years (e.g. Minson, Lobbe, Leuenberger, Jacobs). Even without the risk posed by Spencer, I'd be inclined against him.

Forwards​

Selections ($2,121,800)​

• Luke Dahlhaus ($520,700). His average last year was severely affected by games in which he'd gotten injured early on. Given that his previous history of injury is relatively minor, I'd be less worried about him being an injury-risk premium. He's a very popular pick, so I don't think he needs much more justification.
• Jack Macrae ($511,700). Similar to Dahlhaus, with the added bonus of age [3].
• Jarryd Roughead ($367,100). My final mid-pricer, with much of the typical reasoning applying. He's averaged 95+ in every season since 2011, but is at a significantly discounted price. I'm no medical expert, but I'm pretty sure the cancer is unlikely to affect his play this year, and he seemed pretty lively in the JLT. Hawthorn giving him the captaincy shows a real vote of confidence in him. I think I'd be happy with any average above 90, but am more than willing on this area to hear feedback about what I should count as a successful season, as I certainly wouldn't expect him to go any higher than that.
• Tim Taranto ($207,300). Generic rookie pick. Scored well in the JLT and seems to have decent job security.
• Kayne Turner ($171,400). A rookie who will get games, not much more to say. If not selected for round one he will be out.
• Teia Miles ($123,900). Similar to the above, but at a lower price.
• Brandon Parfitt ($117,300). Ditto.
• Brett Eddy ($102,400). One of very few cheap rookies I'm confident with. He will play games early and at his price needs do very little to generate cash.

Team value: $9,975,500.
Sources
1. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2077-Fallen-Premiums-A-Statistical-Viewpoint
2. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/231-Chasing-last-years-points-(MkII)
3. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age
4. https://www.dropbox.com/s/jsur8rpaz6b7bu2/2017SupercoachscoresPlanner.xlsx?dl=0

Nice work. Two questions:

1. As the articles are somewhat dated, wondering if you have used this research in selecting your team over the past couple of seasons? I assume not, given your not so successful results.

2. Are you worried about a slow start for Goldy given Preuss' selection?

Sorry one more thing on the fallen premiums. What it doesn't take into account is how slowly/quickly they start off. For example Swallow might start slowly, averaging 70 early on, but in the back half of the season finish strongly averaging 100. So you would have been better starting a rookie and getting cash generation, and then upgrading to a fallen premium, rather than holding Swallow.

 

[Mex13]

Roughead to a WHE, Toranto, Florent, Simpkin, Turner type?
or Gawn to a cheaper ruck?

Do you think Roughead will be top 10 in the forward line? I would rather keep him if he can be a top 10 forwards.

 

[Ollie1981]

Hi Guys,
I'm think in set on my side but some suggestions would be great.
I'm still not sure about Higgins. Maybe change Higgins> Ryder for some ruck cover also.

Thoughts???

 

[LeonsSupercoach]

Hi Guys,
I'm think in set on my side but some suggestions would be great.
I'm still not sure about Higgins. Maybe change Higgins> Ryder for some ruck cover also.

Thoughts???
View attachment 348800

How much in the kitty?

 

[PoopingHindi]

Do you think Roughead will be top 10 in the forward line? I would rather keep him if he can be a top 10 forwards.

there's a good chance he will. there's a possibility he wont.
im just trying to help you free up some cash not tell you who to pick.

you could also make some coin by downgrading Shaw or Doc to someone closer to the 500k mark

 

[big bootaaaaah]

Do you think Roughead will be top 10 in the forward line? I would rather keep him if he can be a top 10 forwards.

 

[OneEyedHawk]

Got $263k left over and it's burning a hole in my pocket. Wondering if you learned gentleman might see where i could best utilise this.

B: Shaw, Docherty, Adams, Hampton, Otten, Vickery-Wills (Hibberd & Stewart)
M: Danger, GAJ, Gray Martin, Fyfe, Beams, O'Meara, Powell-Pepper (Taranto, Barrett & Parfitt)
R: Gawn, Sandi (Strnadica)
F: Dollhouse, Roughead, Steele, Hoskin-Elliot, Pickett, Begley (Houston & Eddy)

Strengthen up the forwards maybe?

 

[Xhoquelin]

Thoughts? Would really want to get Gawn and Zak Jones in but I'm not sure what trades I can make, and if I should make them.

 

[scullman]

any thoughts on this? This year has me completely buggered

 

[Ollie1981]

How much in the kitty?

only 17.9k

 

[!_Bazinga_!]

Lads, I'm thinking this is my final team going into the weekend, what do we think?




Many thanks in advance.

 

[enobrien]

Lads, I'm thinking this is my final team going into the weekend, what do we think?

View attachment 348821
View attachment 348822

Many thanks in advance.

Like it.

Only issue is four 190-220k rookies. 1-2 too many for me

 

[Pedsy]

Gah! last minute tinkering is doing my head in.
Can anyone see any glaring issues here before I lock it in?

 

[!_Bazinga_!]

Like it.

Only issue is four 190-220k rookies. 1-2 too many for me

Same here, along with Nankervis.
I feel I need to keep Marchbank and WHE, however Taranto and SPS could be traded... I can't find a reliable replacement for them though. If I can free up some money, I would like to upgrade Grundy to Gawn.
Any recommendations?