AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

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Vhaluus said:
Mate please be careful. If this is because of confidence in the result then fine.

If it's to make up for your losses this is one of the major signs of a gambling problem.

Chasing losses like this isn't healthy betting behavior.
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Agreed. Also found that when you're on a bit of a losing streak it's good to take a break. Lost 3u last Saturday then immediately took a break. Would've made 4u this round if the Dee's pulled through. It may be wise to take a bit of a break
 
Oraz said:
It doesn't but glad someone is winning at least.

Anyway

6u Essendon +10.5 @ 1.92
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Can you accept being 12.5u down for the round? If the bet loses?

Good luck, just be careful with your unit sizing. What Vhaluus said is true. You should consider reducing your unit size, if being this far down for the round has made you physically sick.
 
tan0 said:
Agreed. Also found that when you're on a bit of a losing streak it's good to take a break. Lost 3u last Saturday then immediately took a break. Would've made 4u this round if the Dee's pulled through. It may be wise to take a bit of a break
Click to expand...

Thanks for the tip.

Just checked my excel spreadsheet. I've been hit pretty badly but it's not the end of the world:

Highest Profit Level: 16.12u
Current Profit Level: 7.12u


Ouch. Still hurts though.
 

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GROTTO said:
Can you accept being 12.5u down for the round? If the bet loses?

Good luck, just be careful with your unit sizing. What Vhaluus said is true. You should consider reducing your unit size, if being this far down for the round has made you physically sick.
Click to expand...

I just can't stand to see such a massive decline in profits.

I think i'll put 4u on Essendon at the line. I'm not confident. It would usually be a not bet game for me but i want to get back to where i was
 
Oraz said:
Honestly not sure if trolling?
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Easily. Dees had the better of it in the first, 2nd quarter was fairly even, 3rd quarter the same but Tigers wasted opportunities in front of goal while the Tigers blew about half a dozen chances. Last quarter was all Richmond
 
Oraz said:
I just can't stand to see such a massive decline in profits.

I think i'll put 4u on Essendon at the line. I'm not confident. It would usually be a not bet game for me but i want to get back to where i was
Click to expand...

Going down some units is a good start and ultimately it's your decision.

But if you've been profitable so far this season it's as much from knowing when not to bet as it is what side to back in.

There are plenty of rounds left in the season to make up for losses.

Gambling is about the long game.

if you're playing with a statistical advantage due to your knowledge you'll still lose for a week, or a month... but over the long term you come out ahead.

My advice is trust your instinct to not bet on the game if you aren't sure.
 
applaps said:
I'm sorry but if you bet on the Demons that game you deserved to lose. As I mentioned earlier, they had done nothing to show they were worthy of betting on against an undefeated team, and they did exactly what they have done every other game. Start well, then die in the a***.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

What a load of crap

They were 35 to 10 Inside 50's (Just before the half) and completely dominating the game till half time. Then they had no ruck and got smashed as to be expected as a result in the clearances and I50's. Melbourne ran out of legs was the major reason of a loss and that was due to 2 injuries and one being the ruck which changed the whole game in Tigers favour. That along with still being slightly mentally weak is why they lost but due mainly to the limit of 20 men really early on.
 
Oraz said:
I just can't stand to see such a massive decline in profits.

I think i'll put 4u on Essendon at the line. I'm not confident. It would usually be a not bet game for me but i want to get back to where i was
Click to expand...
what yoda said... patience young padawan. There'll be better opportunities down the track :thumbsu:
 
Keystone agony said:
What a load of crap

They were 35 to 10 Inside 50's (Just before the half) and completely dominating the game till half time. Then they had no ruck and got smashed as to be expected as a result in the clearances and I50's. Melbourne ran out of legs was the major reason of a loss and that was due to 2 injuries and one being the ruck which changed the whole game in Tigers favour. That along with still being slightly mentally weak is why they lost but due mainly to the limit of 20 men really early on.
Click to expand...

What do you mean what a load of crap. I said
pre-game that it was bet on Richmond or don't bet for the exact reason that Demons do not have the mental or physical stamina to close out games.

If you bet on Demons you were literally having a punt.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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Vhaluus said:
Getting on at -16.5? Wow how'd you manage that. very nice.

I think the line of about 40 is about right. Carlton don't have a forward line and Swans players will be better for the run.
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Yeah I took it last tuesday after the swans injury news but don't think they should be giving 40 points to anyone with their form... 4 goals is a massive middle too and looks like there's a chance of rain
 
Jugada said:
Easily. Dees had the better of it in the first, 2nd quarter was fairly even, 3rd quarter the same but Tigers wasted opportunities in front of goal while the Tigers blew about half a dozen chances. Last quarter was all Richmond
Click to expand...

Strongly disagree. Melbourne had double I50's in the first half.

The 3rd evened up but Melbourne continue to kick away on the scoreboard

The 4th was all tigers and that was due to the effect of 20 men and 70 interchanges for melbourne pretty hard to win AFL with that. Tigers lifted as they needed to but Melbourne continue to be their worst enemy mentally fragile again, happy for honourable losses and happy to get well ahead and then just think its enough.
 
TheScream said:
Yeah I took it last tuesday after the swans injury news but don't think they should be giving 40 points to anyone with their form... 4 goals is a massive middle too and looks like there's a chance of rain
Click to expand...

If there's rain that middle seems sweet. Carlton have for the most part been decent defensively at the G (though leak like crazy away from home) so it's possible that they can stop Sydney blowing it out too much.
 
applaps said:
What do you mean what a load of crap. I said
pre-game that it was bet on Richmond or don't bet for the exact reason that Demons do not have the mental or physical stamina to close out games.

If you bet on Demons you were literally having a punt.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
Demons win if Spencer doesnt get injured. Simple. Luck.
 
applaps said:
What do you mean what a load of crap. I said
pre-game that it was bet on Richmond or don't bet for the exact reason that Demons do not have the mental or physical stamina to close out games.

If you bet on Demons you were literally having a punt.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

Ok fine dude, you're a genius.

Can you please keep posting your bets so that we can all abuse you when you get one wrong?
 
TheScream said:
What does everyone think will happen with the swans line at 39.5? I have -16.5 but think I really should middle that. Not sure swans should be laying 40 to any team at the moment
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I got on them too earlier in the week, 2.2U -18.5 . Middle is very tempting atm, I might wait and see though. Carlton are pretty average and I feel the swans could bounce back this week. I might even stick 1.1U on the blues +39.5 and middle part of it.
 
Keystone agony said:
Strongly disagree. Melbourne had double I50's in the first half.

The 3rd evened up but Melbourne continue to kick away on the scoreboard

The 4th was all tigers and that was due to the effect of 20 men and 70 interchanges for melbourne pretty hard to win AFL with that. Tigers lifted as they needed to but Melbourne continue to be their worst enemy mentally fragile again, happy for honourable losses and happy to get well ahead and then just think its enough.
Click to expand...

Yeah the Dees were playing better in the first half, but Richmonds second half was easily better than Melbourne's first
 
Oraz said:
I just can't stand to see such a massive decline in profits.

I think i'll put 4u on Essendon at the line. I'm not confident. It would usually be a not bet game for me but i want to get back to where i was
Click to expand...

You are panic betting! DO NOT DO IT!!! You could very well lose another 4U. I wouldn't be betting on Essendon to come within 11 points of Collingwood, esp. on a day that's supposed to be very wet. Take a deep breath and let things sit for a few days. There are better, safer looking bets in the next couple of rounds to start building your balance back up again. Chasing your tail rarely works in your favour. It's a recipe for disaster.
 
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