AFL 2017 - AFL Round 6

[Sketi]

We haven't got one. Its going to be a bloodbath if they go tall.

Damn.

 

[Vhaluus]

Interesting to see the Sydney line come in.. people are actually loading up on Carlton?

 

[Oraz]

2u St Kilda ML @ 2.05

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I am not getting why the Saints are at $2.00, and the Hawks have no Cyril. I know it is in Tasmania but really.

Greater Western Sydney (-20.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
St Kilda (-0.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Sydney (-37.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Brisbane (+30.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
North Melbourne (-13.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
West Coast (-16.5)@ $1.85 (Win)
Melbourne (-5.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Geelong (-22.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Adelaide (-29.5)@ $1.90 (Win)

Odds 314.19 I put $10 on it

 

[freo_leo29]

Hayden Crozier anytime goal scorer@ $2 on tsbtouch or Sportsbet

Don't know why his odds are going up when he has consistently had plenty of shots and kicked goals in all his games at all levels this year.

And a play at 3goals@19 and small play at 4 goals @101 he lives the big time games and a derby should suit him.

 

[Jugada]

Hayden Crozier anytime goal scorer@ $2 on tsbtouch or Sportsbet

Don't know why his odds are going up when he has consistently had plenty of shots and kicked goals in all his games at all levels this year.

And a play at 3goals@19 and small play at 4 goals @101 he lives the big time games and a derby should suit him.

Based on what?

Derby performances
14 touches / 0 goals
5 touches / 0 goals
3 touches / 0 goals
13 touches / 0 goals

Finals
5 touches / 0 goals
13 touches / 2 goals

Don't hate the bet based on this years form though

 

[Keystone agony]

Jesse Hogan's father passed away yesterday. He won't play on the weekend. With Melbourne's ruck woes, and now Hogan def. out, Essendon should win pretty comfortably if they play the way they did on Anzac Day.

Both Carlton and Collingwood have had 23 more inside 50s against us. Playing that way cant lead to wins.

Our forward line is dangerous so we dont need it in there that much but i dont see many sides winning conceding that many more I50s.

 

[Vhaluus]

I am not getting why the Saints are at $2.00, and the Hawks have no Cyril. I know it is in Tasmania but really.

Greater Western Sydney (-20.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
St Kilda (-0.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Sydney (-37.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Brisbane (+30.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
North Melbourne (-13.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
West Coast (-16.5)@ $1.85 (Win)
Melbourne (-5.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Geelong (-22.5)@ $1.90 (Win)
Adelaide (-29.5)@ $1.90 (Win)

Odds 314.19 I put $10 on it

St kilda are the worst travelling team in the comp statistically. Worse than wce

 

[TheScream]

St kilda are the worst travelling team in the comp statistically. Worse than wce

Just wondering what "stats" you may have done on this considering they've only played one game away from etihad so far and covered...

 

[Vhaluus]

Just wondering what "stats" you may have done on this considering they've only played one game away from etihad so far and covered...

https://thearcfooty.com/2017/04/23/cant-eagles-fly/

 

[targett]

Just wondering what "stats" you may have done on this considering they've only played one game away from etihad so far and covered...

Got me confused too

Fact Stats

Saints from 2015 have a Home percentage win of 36% and an Away percentage win of 45%

The leauge Average over this time is
55% Home
43% Away

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Here's a comparison stat sheet between GWS and WB....Footywire are good for this type of thing. You can select any two teams and they give you the side-by-side stats >http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_comparison?team1_id=25&team2_id=8 - tonight's game total is set for 179.5, which seems a bit low?

 

[DemonZombie_001]

St kilda are the worst travelling team in the comp statistically. Worse than wce

Thanks for going to the effort and presenting that chart.

I do remember last year they played awful away but I did not realize they played that badly !

 

[Vhaluus]

Got me confused too

Fact Stats

Saints from 2015 have a Home percentage win of 36% and an Away percentage win of 45%

The leauge Average over this time is
55% Home
43% Away

2016

Interstate games
Port (lost)
Hawks (lost)
West Coast (lost)
Adelaide (lost)
Gold Coast (lost)

2015
Interstate
Gold Coast (won)
Carlton (lost)
adelaide (lost)
gabba(won)
GWS (lost)
Port (lost)
North Melbourne(lost)
West Coast (lost)

 

[Jugada]

There is a difference between Away and Interstate though

 

[Vhaluus]

There is a difference between Away and Interstate though

Hence why my original argument was they're the worst travelling team in the competition.

 

[targett]

2016

Interstate games
Port (lost)
Hawks (lost)
West Coast (lost)
Adelaide (lost)
Gold Coast (lost)

2015
Interstate
Gold Coast (won)
Carlton (lost)
adelaide (lost)
gabba(won)
GWS (lost)
Port (lost)
North Melbourne(lost)
West Coast (lost)

 

[Vhaluus]

View attachment 363526

That is counting games in Melbourne.

 

[targett]

TGS Brisbane vs Port
O195 WH 1.87
U203 Palmer 1.90

 

[iluvparis]

View attachment 363526

 

[TheScream]

https://thearcfooty.com/2017/04/23/cant-eagles-fly/

Not sure how relevant 2014 results are to the game on saturday considering the saints were last that year in a year they were rebuilding... Last time they played at aurora they got within 3 points of the hawks and probably should've won. 12 months on, the hawks have regressed and are without rioli.

 

[Vhaluus]

Not sure how relevant 2014 results are to the game on saturday considering the saints were last that year in a year they were rebuilding... Last time they played at aurora they got within 3 points of the hawks and probably should've won. 12 months on, the hawks have regressed and are without rioli.

Being last isn't relevant since that chart is comparing win rate at home vs win rate way.

Furthermore the picture gets even bleaker if we exclude 2014 as seen by my list for 2015 and 2016.

They won 0% of their games away from Melbourne in 2016 and only 20% in 2015.

Look if you want to bet on them be my guest. But you asked why the odds were how they were and that is a big part of why.

I am not advocating a bet in either direction. For myself I'm staying well away from that game... just too hard to get a meaningful read on either team currently.

 

[langdon19]

.

Shuey is now -10.5
Johnson over 64.5 is $1.7
Ward not even in market anymore

Ward back up

Very soft markets

 

[targett]

Not sure how relevant 2014 results are to the game on saturday considering the saints were last that year in a year they were rebuilding... Last time they played at aurora they got within 3 points of the hawks and probably should've won. 12 months on, the hawks have regressed and are without rioli.

Im happy to take TGS U187.5 in this game.Hawthorns last 6 games they have averaged 104 with against 52.Obvoiusly the Hawks are not going as well as previus years combined with the Saints noted INTERSTATE travel bug .

 

[Jelly85]

I like Bulldogs at +21.5 @ $2 at TAB for tonight.