Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Unknown Origin]

Stuff that priority pick, we just can't finish last again. It'll kill all of our good work over the last 2 years.

We'll also likely lose Gibbs and Casboult as well so chance of being last again next year meaning 3 out of past 4 years finishing last! **** that.

We need another ready made mid to avoid that and Kelly is the answer. Don't sell the farm for him but trading our 1st pick this year and change (maybe Casboult compo) and I'd do it in a heartbeat.

LOL tell us what you really think.

It is what it is. We are a poor footy team with shallow depth. We have a lot of VFL quality players running around currently due to injuries.

If there isn't quality backups to replace them, of course we are going to fall off the wagon.

Finishing last should not come as a shock to anyone.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Sumner
KJ (possible trade bait)
Galluci ?
Gorrange
Bucks
Army
Sheehan (either delist or upgrade?)
JGM (hope not)

Trade/FA
Gibbs
Cas

Could be up to 8 -10 list changes

Graham would be a no brainer

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

This will be our last year of a clean out.

Clean outs always continue
People you think would make it won't
It's how it's always been, how it always will be

 

[Arr0w]

Stuff that priority pick, we just can't finish last again. It'll kill all of our good work over the last 2 years.

We'll also likely lose Gibbs and Casboult as well so chance of being last again next year meaning 3 out of past 4 years finishing last! **** that.

We need another ready made mid to avoid that and Kelly is the answer. Don't sell the farm for him but trading our 1st pick this year and change (maybe Casboult compo) and I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Perhaps you need to start considering another option rather than the "Casboult Compo Pick", you have a better chance of winning lotto than Levi getting over $650K a year from any club that needs him

 

[I bleed Blue]

Finish last or 2nd last and we should apply for a priority pick again.

Wont get one due to all rising star nominations etc... But ey no harm trying our luck. All they can say is no.

 

[Bic]

Clean outs always continue
People you think would make it won't
It's how it's always been, how it always will be

I understand that.

By clean out, I mean double digit player changes like we have had the past 2 seasons.

I think this will be our last year of that with obvious delistings that have been listen in this thread. 10+ easy.

Moving forward though, I think we will be moving towards the minimum amount of changes as our list gets younger. The changes to our list over this 3 year period is unprecedented in comparison to other clubs over the last 10-15 years.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We have plenty of players who have been weighed, measured and found wanting, there has to be changes made if we are to improve. There were plenty of supporters gnashing their teeth yesterday against the team on the bottom of the ladder, you cannot expect a number of those players to magically transform into superstars if they have hardly fired a shot previously (Jones being the only exception I've ever seen).

With potential retirements and contracts running out over the next two years, there is a heap of work for SOS & Co to do :

PAST
Buckley
Casboult
Galluci
Graham
Jaksch
Sumner
Lamb
Rowe
Sheehan
Thomas
White
Armfield
Boekhorst
LeBois
Korchek
Glass-McCasker
Gorringe


PRESENT
E. Curnow
Kerridge
Murphy
Simpson
Wright
Gibbs
Kreuzer
A. Silvagni
Palmer
Pickett
Smedts


FUTURE
Byrne
C.Curnow
Cripps
Cuningham
Docherty
Fisher
Jones
Kerr
MacCreadie
McKay
Petrevski-Seton
Phillips
Plowman
Polson
Silvagni
Weitering
Williamson
Marchbank

Yep, good list.

Go through a few other teams though and you'll find just about everyone has 10 or so players who fall into the "past" grouping. A big cleanout this year gets us back to parity with the majority of the competition (dependent of course on the players we bring in being any good).

Cut 10 this year, we're down to 8-10 who we'd like to move on, but we can afford to cull them over a couple of years to improve the quality of replacement.

Gone in 2017
Buckley (del)
Galluci (del)
Jaksch (del)
Sheehan (del)
White (del/ret)
Armfield (ret)
Korchek (del)
Glass-McCasker (del)
Gorringe (del)
Casboult (FA)?
Gibbs (Trd)?

10 or 11 players, going to struggle to replace any more than that unless we have another 4-for-1 deal on the boil. I think we can probably agree that continuing to do those trades isn't realistic or sustainable though. Replacing this many will mean getting good return for Gibbs (assume 15 + 17 at best) and compo for Casboult (Band 3 for Pick 21). Even then, on current ladder position, we're bringing in Picks 3, 15, 17, 21, 39, 57 in the National Draft, 4 rookies (including one Cat B) and a free agent. I reckon that's about the limit, unless we get super creative with trading down for multiple picks or trading out future picks, or somehow find someone who wants to pay for a player we're happy to move on.

Gone in 2018
Palmer (del)
Smedts (del)
Graham (del)
Boekhorst (del)
Sumner (del)
Thomas (ret)
Rowe (ret)
Simpson (ret)

Smedts and Palmer are, I believe, contracted for next season. Graham and Boekhorst, unless we find a trade suitor (ie. Boek for Balic), will probably get a minimum wage one-year deal, otherwise we're going to Pick 70+ to replace them. Sumner could surprise and stick around for a while yet, but I'm thinking he'd need to have a blinder to move ahead of Fisher, Pickett and Polson on our list of priority signings. Rowe and Simmo probably have a year left each, but they'll be phased out during 2018 and will pull up stumps by year's end. Assuming we push up the ladder a bit next year (10-12th), we replace this lot with Picks 7, 25 (used for BSOS), 43 and 61 in the National Draft, a few rookies (and associated rookie upgrades), and a big Free Agency signing (come on Tommy Lynch!). This represents a return to the expected list turnover of most AFL clubs (4 draftees, a couple of rookies, Free Agent/Trade)

Gone in 2019
Kerridge (del)
Murphy (ret)

Murphy may well play on past this point, but personally I'd expect injuries to take their toll over the next two seasons and it's more likely he retains the captaincy in 2018, hands it over but plays on in 2019, then retires at the end of that year. Kerridge will be valuable depth for a few years to come, but he'll be pushed out the bottom of the list at some point. This list will grow based on what we see from guys like Pickett, Polson, Kerr, Phillips and the 2017 Rookie Crop. By this stage we're hopefully pushing into the bottom end of the Top 8. Bring in players with Picks 10, 28, 46 in the National Draft, some more rookie turnover, and another big Free Agent (Dylan Shiel, you're up).


That's my theory, anyway. Heavy cleanout, followed by expected turnover, followed by who-knows-what based on how good our recruiting turns out to be.

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Has Cuningham resigned yet?

 

[Space Cadet]

This is a big issue atm since it's affecting our team balance.

Currently all those guys are good talented players who we see as best 22...however in trying to fit them all in our team we are too top heavy.
No space in the forward line either as we have McKay, Charlie & SOSOS even if Casboult leaves.

SOS did the right thing recruiting heavily on KPP's when he first got here as they take longer to develop...but the form of Jones as a defender and being able to pick up Macreadie who was a GWS academy player was probably unforeseen - leading to the surplus.

Objectively speaking, yes we should trade one of them to help us get a talented midfielder to help our list balance...problem is as good as they've been i'm not sure guys like Macreadie, Jones or Plowman would net us much in a trade. We wouldn't trade Marchbank after just trading him in. Weitering is the only one with any real currency.

I'm confident Weitering will become an A grader and that we won't trade him but if we're honest with ourselves, it would have really helped our list if the no.1 pick in the 2015 draft was a gun midfielder like a Kelly or Shiel type. I'd even prefer a Petracca type at this stage who is a half forward who can pinch hit in the midfield and is dynamic in the F50.

Alternatively, I still think Weitering can be a solid CHF. I still have that image of him kicking two goals in a quarter on one leg towards the end of last year. Three pronged forward line?
SOS is developed as a defender or general utility in this scenario.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Yep, good list.

Go through a few other teams though and you'll find just about everyone has 10 or so players who fall into the "past" grouping. A big cleanout this year gets us back to parity with the majority of the competition (dependent of course on the players we bring in being any good).

Cut 10 this year, we're down to 8-10 who we'd like to move on, but we can afford to cull them over a couple of years to improve the quality of replacement.

Gone in 2017
Buckley (del)
Galluci (del)
Jaksch (del)
Sheehan (del)
White (del/ret)
Armfield (ret)
Korchek (del)
Glass-McCasker (del)
Gorringe (del)
Casboult (FA)?
Gibbs (Trd)?

10 or 11 players, going to struggle to replace any more than that unless we have another 4-for-1 deal on the boil. I think we can probably agree that continuing to do those trades isn't realistic or sustainable though. Replacing this many will mean getting good return for Gibbs (assume 15 + 17 at best) and compo for Casboult (Band 3 for Pick 21). Even then, on current ladder position, we're bringing in Picks 3, 15, 17, 21, 39, 57 in the National Draft, 4 rookies (including one Cat B) and a free agent. I reckon that's about the limit, unless we get super creative with trading down for multiple picks or trading out future picks, or somehow find someone who wants to pay for a player we're happy to move on.

I dont know that Daisy Thomas is a lock for a new contract either, compare his output to other 30+yo players who are likely to retire Hodge, Riewolt, Watson etc

Picks 3, 15, 17, 21, 39, 57 in the National Draft - Does 3 & 21 get us Josh Kelly?? ... Would be nice to go to the ND still with 2 first round picks and seems like will be plenty of decent mids around at that time, James Worpel or Lochie Obrien sound like they would be good mix of inside & outside.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I dont know that Daisy Thomas is a lock for a new contract either, compare his output to other 30+yo players who are likely to retire Hodge, Riewolt, Watson etc

Picks 3, 15, 17, 21, 39, 57 in the National Draft - Does 3 & 21 get us Josh Kelly?? ... Would be nice to go to the ND still with 2 first round picks and seems like will be plenty of decent mids around at that time, James Worpel or Lochie Obrien sound like they would be good mix of inside & outside.

I reckon Daisy stays on. He's still getting picked in the seniors, has been injury free for a while now, and only a couple of weeks ago the general vibe was that he was performing at an acceptable level to get a reduced salary deal for next year. That doesn't mean he'll play 22 senior games next year, he could (and probably should) end up in Armfield territory sometime next season.

3 & 21 probably gets us Kelly if he nominates us. The trick there is getting something else thrown our way, otherwise we're giving up two of our more valuable resources for a single player. Using those two picks just on Kelly potentially means we're forced to keep someone like Buckley, or take an extra player in the draft at Pick 75.

Pay big for Kelly = Josh Kelly + Dylan Buckley (or Pick 75)
Get something extra for Kelly = Josh Kelly + Matthew Flynn (20yo ruckman)
Go to the draft = Lucas Davies-Uniacke + Lochie O'Brien

Option 1 should be avoided.
Option 2 is a really good result.
Option 3 still works well long-term.

 

[LordLucifer]

Yep, good list.

Go through a few other teams though and you'll find just about everyone has 10 or so players who fall into the "past" grouping. A big cleanout this year gets us back to parity with the majority of the competition (dependent of course on the players we bring in being any good).

Cut 10 this year, we're down to 8-10 who we'd like to move on, but we can afford to cull them over a couple of years to improve the quality of replacement.

Gone in 2017
Buckley (del)
Galluci (del)
Jaksch (del)
Sheehan (del)
White (del/ret)
Armfield (ret)
Korchek (del)
Glass-McCasker (del)
Gorringe (del)
Casboult (FA)?
Gibbs (Trd)?

10 or 11 players, going to struggle to replace any more than that unless we have another 4-for-1 deal on the boil. I think we can probably agree that continuing to do those trades isn't realistic or sustainable though. Replacing this many will mean getting good return for Gibbs (assume 15 + 17 at best) and compo for Casboult (Band 3 for Pick 21). Even then, on current ladder position, we're bringing in Picks 3, 15, 17, 21, 39, 57 in the National Draft, 4 rookies (including one Cat B) and a free agent. I reckon that's about the limit, unless we get super creative with trading down for multiple picks or trading out future picks, or somehow find someone who wants to pay for a player we're happy to move on.

Gone in 2018
Palmer (del)
Smedts (del)
Graham (del)
Boekhorst (del)
Sumner (del)
Thomas (ret)
Rowe (ret)
Simpson (ret)

Smedts and Palmer are, I believe, contracted for next season. Graham and Boekhorst, unless we find a trade suitor (ie. Boek for Balic), will probably get a minimum wage one-year deal, otherwise we're going to Pick 70+ to replace them. Sumner could surprise and stick around for a while yet, but I'm thinking he'd need to have a blinder to move ahead of Fisher, Pickett and Polson on our list of priority signings. Rowe and Simmo probably have a year left each, but they'll be phased out during 2018 and will pull up stumps by year's end. Assuming we push up the ladder a bit next year (10-12th), we replace this lot with Picks 7, 25 (used for BSOS), 43 and 61 in the National Draft, a few rookies (and associated rookie upgrades), and a big Free Agency signing (come on Tommy Lynch!). This represents a return to the expected list turnover of most AFL clubs (4 draftees, a couple of rookies, Free Agent/Trade)

Gone in 2019
Kerridge (del)
Murphy (ret)

Murphy may well play on past this point, but personally I'd expect injuries to take their toll over the next two seasons and it's more likely he retains the captaincy in 2018, hands it over but plays on in 2019, then retires at the end of that year. Kerridge will be valuable depth for a few years to come, but he'll be pushed out the bottom of the list at some point. This list will grow based on what we see from guys like Pickett, Polson, Kerr, Phillips and the 2017 Rookie Crop. By this stage we're hopefully pushing into the bottom end of the Top 8. Bring in players with Picks 10, 28, 46 in the National Draft, some more rookie turnover, and another big Free Agent (Dylan Shiel, you're up).


That's my theory, anyway. Heavy cleanout, followed by expected turnover, followed by who-knows-what based on how good our recruiting turns out to be.

Pretty close to where my head is at, existing contracts to be honoured coupled with a couple of retirements on the horizon still leaves the club with a lot of players out of contract and quite vulnerable.

FA & trade outs are thin but that will eat into our list as well.

Its going to be very interesting to see how they go about it even though I'm still convinced there will be no shortcuts embarked upon (ie. no Kelly, Martin etc).

 

[Bell Ringer]

No, they won't.

They may well finish last, but they're clearly no longer the basket case they were under Leppitsch.

Fagan has them finally headed in the right direction - it'd take something spectacular for them to regress to the point where the AFL would contemplate giving them one.

3-4 of their young stars requesting trades to hometown clubs would probably do it.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

I reckon Daisy stays on. He's still getting picked in the seniors, has been injury free for a while now, and only a couple of weeks ago the general vibe was that he was performing at an acceptable level to get a reduced salary deal for next year. That doesn't mean he'll play 22 senior games next year, he could (and probably should) end up in Armfield territory sometime next season.

3 & 21 probably gets us Kelly if he nominates us. The trick there is getting something else thrown our way, otherwise we're giving up two of our more valuable resources for a single player. Using those two picks just on Kelly potentially means we're forced to keep someone like Buckley, or take an extra player in the draft at Pick 75.

Pay big for Kelly = Josh Kelly + Dylan Buckley (or Pick 75)
Get something extra for Kelly = Josh Kelly + Matthew Flynn (20yo ruckman)
Go to the draft = Lucas Davies-Uniacke + Lochie O'Brien

Option 1 should be avoided.
Option 2 is a really good result.
Option 3 still works well long-term.

We have used the delisted free agent well in the past, someone like Harley Balic might be available and worth a shot so i dont think the first option neccesary means we have to go to the draft with 75 or keep Buckley.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

LOL tell us what you really think.

It is what it is. We are a poor footy team with shallow depth. We have a lot of VFL quality players running around currently due to injuries.

If there isn't quality backups to replace them, of course we are going to fall off the wagon.

Finishing last should not come as a shock to anyone.

As if we don't already realise that.

Do you really expect us to just say "ahh well, it is what it is"? 3 spoons in 4 years would be disastrous for the club. We need to make sure it doesn't happen.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Got no problems with our lot asking for a Priority Pick.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Perhaps you need to start considering another option rather than the "Casboult Compo Pick", you have a better chance of winning lotto than Levi getting over $650K a year from any club that needs him

There's always an idiot out there. Last year proved it. Other options would be one of the picks we get for Gibbs.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We have used the delisted free agent well in the past, someone like Harley Balic might be available and worth a shot so i dont think the first option neccesary means we have to go to the draft with 75 or keep Buckley.

I'd already factored in a free agent signing to the original list (6x ND, 4x RD, 1x FA). Maybe we get more than one....but we'd wanna be careful about it or we risk losing the Casboult compensation, whatever it ends up being. Also, can't see Balic being delisted - he'll request a trade and one will get done for a late third round pick or player.

 

[Doro]

Finish last or 2nd last and we should apply for a priority pick again.

Wont get one due to all rising star nominations etc... But ey no harm trying our luck. All they can say is no.

Got no problems with our lot asking for a Priority Pick.

I don't like the message of it personally. Selling the future and green shoots/ reset on the one hand and holding out the begging bowl with the other. Not for mine.

 

[Wickzki]

Gone in 2017
Casboult (FA)

Casboult is the only one that I strongly disagree with. Unless someone is willing to offer him crazy money and we get band one then we need to go close enough to the offer that Levi re-signs.

Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have shown me enough to determine that they are going to be 2 of the 3 cornerstones of our forward line for the next decade or so. However, to continue their development we cannot possibly afford to Darcy Moore either of them. That means we either retain Levi or we go elsewhere.

If you can tell me where we're going to get that veteran KPF protector for Curnow and McKay that isn't going to cost us an arm and a leg and isn't Levi Casboult then I'm all ears. But I think you'll find that the reality of the situation isn't as hopeful as what we'd like to think that it is.

There are no free agents that would be cheap enough to pick up and do the same type of job close to the level that Levi is capable of. Would be a waste of money and resources.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

I don't like the message of it personally. Selling the future and green shoots/ reset on the one hand and holding out the begging bowl with the other. Not for mine.

We dont need to know whether it's been done or not, it's just due diligence.

I'd be pissed if we didn't ask, do I want to know if we do or not...we'll yeah but I don't need to know

 

[Blue__Balls]

Casboult is the only one that I strongly disagree with. Unless someone is willing to offer him crazy money and we get band one then we need to go close enough to the offer that Levi re-signs.

Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have shown me enough to determine that they are going to be 2 of the 3 cornerstones of our forward line for the next decade or so. However, to continue their development we cannot possibly afford to Darcy Moore either of them. That means we either retain Levi or we go elsewhere.

If you can tell me where we're going to get that veteran KPF protector for Curnow and McKay that isn't going to cost us an arm and a leg and isn't Levi Casboult then I'm all ears. But I think you'll find that the reality of the situation isn't as hopeful as what we'd like to think that it is.

There are no free agents that would be cheap enough to pick up and do the same type of job close to the level that Levi is capable of. Would be a waste of money and resources.

Happy to keep Levi if he wants to stay and we can work out a deal that suits. If he goes though, it's a straight one-for-one in list management terms though (lose a player, gain a pick).

If he left, as much as I know he's not a glamourous recruitment I'd be expecting us to have a look at Tippett for a token late pick (80+). Does the job for the one year we'd need him, then he's done. An extra pre-season for Weiters could see him play a more prominent role up forward as well. I'd also be interested to see what happens at the end of the season with Cam Pederson at Melbourne - he could be a good short-term option on modest coin if he's getting squeezed out of their side.

The thing to remember with Levi is that we don't have the final say in whether he stays or goes. He's an unrestricted free agent, so if a team like Richmond offer him 3 years at $500k, along with a chance to play in finals, he may leave even if we can match the salary. We need to be prepared for that possibility.

 

[DangerousD]

Gone in 2017
Buckley (del)
Galluci (del)
Jaksch (del)
Sheehan (del)
White (del/ret)
Armfield (ret)
Korchek (del)
Glass-McCasker (del)
Gorringe (del)
Casboult (FA)?
Gibbs (Trd)?

I agree with your list but can you give some opinions on how we replace these guys?

Currently we have picks: 3-38-56-74-92

Now i can see us being able to draft a good player at 3 and 38 but with all the talk of weak drafts i am not confident beyond that. The list you have is long and even with picks coming in for Gibbs and Cas i don't see how we can cut that deep.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We dont need to know whether it's been done or not, it's just due diligence.

I'd be pissed if we didn't ask, do I want to know if we do or not...we'll yeah but I don't need to know

You're dreaming if you think that it wouldn't be made public. Those sorts of moves always get leaked to the media and end up splashed over the TV, radio, internet and papers.

 

[Doro]

We dont need to know whether it's been done or not, it's just due diligence.

I'd be pissed if we didn't ask, do I want to know if we do or not...we'll yeah but I don't need to know

Well I don't mind a little informal dialogue between the club and the AFL about the topic, but I'd prefer priority picks get given out to clubs only when they are in strife. The lions got a little nudge last year and some help in getting a football department together. We are managing well enough on our own, I don't think we need or deserve an extra pick.