Poll - Who would you rate as the weakest premiership side in the AFL era?

[kranky al]

AN

away game.

 

[The Dice Man]

AN

away game.

Have you met Snake Baker? Reckon you guys could get along just fine at a BBQ.

BYW tin foil.

 

[Monkey King]

I’ve not seen as many “neutral” posters ruffled by another team winning the flag as some are with Richmond.

 

[SCRAY72]

I’ve not seen as many “neutral” posters ruffled by another team winning the flag as some are with Richmond.

Envy. Pure and simple.

 

[kranky al]

Envy. Pure and simple.

Envy?

We wernt even in the race

I actually prefer richmond as a club to adelaide.

I put money on richmond to win - a lot of money.

But yeah - whatevs

 

[Final Siren]

| West Coast 2006 | Richmond 2017 \Grand Final Margin|1 pt|48 pts\Preliminary Final Margin|10 pts|36 pts\Qualifying Final Margin|Lost by 1 pt|51 pts\Drug scandals|1|0

 

[bh90210fan]

| West Coast 2006 | Richmond 2017 \Grand Final Margin|1 pt|48 pts\Preliminary Final Margin|10 pts|36 pts\Qualifying Final Margin|Lost by 1 pt|51 pts\Drug scandals|1|0

You forgot one column

Home finals gifted not earned
West Coast - 0
Richmond - 2

 

[Final Siren]

You forgot one column

Home finals gifted not earned
West Coast - 0
Richmond - 2

Didn't West Coast 2006 lose their home final? Then beat the same team at the 'G? Where was that mystical home ground advantage that's suddenly now worth 50 points?

 

[bh90210fan]

Didn't West Coast 2006 lose their home final? Then beat the same team at the 'G? Where was that mystical home ground advantage that's suddenly now worth 50 points?

The only mystical thing about home ground advantage is the fact that there are some out there who deny the simple truth that you’re more likely to win at home

 

[Holy Rioli]

For those that voted 2008 take a moment to look at these results in the finals series:

Hawthorn 18.19 (127) Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76) (51 point win to Hawthorn)
Hawthorn 18.10 (118) St Kilda 9.10 (64) (54 point win to Hawthorn)
Geelong 11.23 (89) Hawthorn 18.7 (115) (26 point win to Hawthorn)

This was in a year where the top 3 sides were dominant compared to the rest of the competition, including a team that had the most dominant home and away season of all time in Geelong.

If you have voted for a team that has dominated a finals series after and solid home and away season, you are clearly showing your bias. Teams like North in 1996 & 1999, Essendon in 2000, Lions 2001, Hawthorn 2008, Geelong 2011 and Richmond in 2017 shouldn't even be a poll option IMO.

 

[Tony Harrison]

For those that voted 2008 take a moment to look at these results in the finals series:

Hawthorn 18.19 (127) Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76) (51 point win to Hawthorn)
Hawthorn 18.10 (118) St Kilda 9.10 (64) (54 point win to Hawthorn)
Geelong 11.23 (89) Hawthorn 18.7 (115) (26 point win to Hawthorn)

This was in a year where the top 3 sides were dominant compared to the rest of the competition, including a team that had the most dominant home and away season of all time in Geelong.

If you have voted for a team that has dominated a finals series after and solid home and away season, you are clearly showing your bias. Teams like North in 1996 & 1999, Essendon in 2000, Lions 2001, Hawthorn 2008, Geelong 2011 and Richmond in 2017 shouldn't even be a poll option IMO.

A flag's a flag IMO.

 

[TJASTA]

For those that voted 2008 take a moment to look at these results in the finals series:

Hawthorn 18.19 (127) Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76) (51 point win to Hawthorn)
Hawthorn 18.10 (118) St Kilda 9.10 (64) (54 point win to Hawthorn)
Geelong 11.23 (89) Hawthorn 18.7 (115) (26 point win to Hawthorn)

This was in a year where the top 3 sides were dominant compared to the rest of the competition, including a team that had the most dominant home and away season of all time in Geelong.

If you have voted for a team that has dominated a finals series after and solid home and away season, you are clearly showing your bias. Teams like North in 1996 & 1999, Essendon in 2000, Lions 2001, Hawthorn 2008, Geelong 2011 and Richmond in 2017 shouldn't even be a poll option IMO.

Don't worry. People are just memeing.

 

[Final Siren]

The only mystical thing about home ground advantage is the fact that there are some out there who deny the simple truth that you’re more likely to win at home

But no-one thinks home ground advantage is worth 50 points. If that were true, the home side would win every game.

 

[Final Siren]

You lot are mcg queens

Behold Richmond's fearsome home-ground advantage:

 

[bh90210fan]

Behold Richmond's fearsome home-ground advantage:

So Geelong go from 80% games won at home to 50% wins away

Richmond go from 50% wins away to 60% wins at home

The result of being gifted home games against Geelong is a 40% greater chance of winning for Richmond

You have to add the advantage for one team and the disadvantage for the other

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

A flag's a flag IMO.

Controversial.

Are you sure a flag isn't a chair?

 

[Final Siren]

So Geelong go from 80% games won at home to 50% wins away

Richmond go from 50% wins away to 60% wins at home

The result of being gifted home games against Geelong is a 40% greater chance of winning for Richmond

You have to add the advantage for one team and the disadvantage for the other

Oh boy! No, that's not how the maths works. You have managed to combine misreading the graph with double counting.

First, the difference between Richmond's home & away win performance is 5.5%, not 10%:

That's one of the smallest in the league, and why the "MCG queens" argument is a weird one.

Geelong does have a big advantage at the Cattery! (Although they are 0-1 for finals.) That is 28.6%. So you could reasonably conclude that they'd be a significantly better shot if they got to play all their finals there.

But you are double counting if you take the Richmond difference and add it to the Geelong difference, because those numbers already account for the opposition. You should average +28.6 and -5.5, since the fact that Geelong is (much) stronger than average at home is somewhat countered by the fact that Richmond isn't as weak as average away.

Still, let's take a generous interpretation! We'll use Geelong's number, i.e. one of the most extreme in the league.

Now when viewed retrospectively, margin matters. If a game was close, a lot of things could have made a crucial difference. But if it was a thrashing, it's less likely that any single factor could have changed the outcome.

In fact, there's already a lot of statistical work on this, and you can very roughly translate a 1% win likelihood into about 0.5 pts of margin. That is, if you think a team has a 60/40 chance, that's equivalent to expecting a 10-point win. If you think it's 80/20, that's roughly a 30-pt win. Here is a pictorial representation:

Richmond defeated Geelong by 51 points, which is a lot: about 0.92 on the chart above. So what happens if you pull the result back by 0.286? You're at 0.64, which is still a comfortable Richmond victory.

Even with the most favourable interpretation, and ignoring things like how Geelong's actual finals record at Kardinia is 0%, or that home ground advantage is far less statistically significant in finals than home & away games, you can't get close to the conclusion that it was the difference, because Richmond simply won by too much.

 

[Tony Harrison]

Behold Richmond's fearsome home-ground advantage:

We're better at Etihad than the G?

 

[Final Siren]

We're better at Etihad than the G?

I guess? Probably a pretty small sample size. That article is here.

 

[bh90210fan]

Oh boy! No, that's not how the maths works. You have managed to combine misreading the graph with double counting.

First, the difference between Richmond's home & away win performance is 5.5%, not 10%:

That's one of the smallest in the league, and why the "MCG queens" argument is a weird one.

Geelong does have a big advantage at the Cattery! (Although they are 0-1 for finals.) That is 28.6%. So you could reasonably conclude that they'd be a significantly better shot if they got to play all their finals there.

But you are double counting if you take the Richmond difference and add it to the Geelong difference, because those numbers already account for the opposition. You should average +28.6 and -5.5, since the fact that Geelong is (much) stronger than average at home is somewhat countered by the fact that Richmond isn't as weak as average away.

Still, let's take a generous interpretation! We'll use Geelong's number, i.e. one of the most extreme in the league.

Now when viewed retrospectively, margin matters. If a game was close, a lot of things could have made a crucial difference. But if it was a thrashing, it's less likely that any single factor could have changed the outcome.

In fact, there's already a lot of statistical work on this, and you can very roughly translate a 1% win likelihood into about 0.5 pts of margin. That is, if you think a team has a 60/40 chance, that's equivalent to expecting a 10-point win. If you think it's 80/20, that's roughly a 30-pt win. Here is a pictorial representation:

Richmond defeated Geelong by 51 points, which is a lot: about 0.92 on the chart above. So what happens if you pull the result back by 0.286? You're at 0.64, which is still a comfortable Richmond victory.

Even with the most favourable interpretation, and ignoring things like how Geelong's actual finals record at Kardinia is 0%, or that home ground advantage is far less statistically significant in finals than home & away games, you can't get close to the conclusion that it was the difference, because Richmond simply won by too much.

Wow. Looks like a lot of work to try and somehow disprove the simple fact that Geelong lose a 30% winning home ground advantage that they have earned in finals or deserve during the regular season while Richmond are gifted a 6% better chance of winning.

It’s a swing of 36% in Richmond’s favour

 

[Tony Harrison]

Wow. Looks like a lot of work to try and somehow disprove the simple fact that Geelong lose a 30% winning home ground advantage that they have earned in finals or deserve during the regular season while Richmond are gifted a 6% better chance of winning.

It’s a swing of 36% in Richmond’s favour

Explains why Geelong make the finals nearly every year you mean?

 

[bh90210fan]

Explains why Geelong make the finals nearly every year you mean?

Everything they have got they have EARNED

 

[Tony Harrison]

Everything they have got they have EARNED

It's all swings and roundabouts in the AFL.

 

[Rich01]

Wow. Looks like a lot of work to try and somehow disprove the simple fact that Geelong lose a 30% winning home ground advantage that they have earned in finals or deserve during the regular season while Richmond are gifted a 6% better chance of winning.

It’s a swing of 36% in Richmond’s favour

He knows how to maths.

He’s just explained why you are incorrect in your thinking and you go back to the well again.

Your thinking is simplistic and incorrect.

 

[Heisenberg_]

Wow. Looks like a lot of work to try and somehow disprove the simple fact that Geelong lose a 30% winning home ground advantage that they have earned in finals or deserve during the regular season while Richmond are gifted a 6% better chance of winning.

It’s a swing of 36% in Richmond’s favour

Leave the not so complicated math to the adults.
You're clearly out of your depth here, you've been completely schooled.