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Traded #10: Aaron Francis - Traded to Sydney w. Pick 42 + Future fourth rounder for Pick 37. Thanks Frang!

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Zach Package said:
Everyone who mentions Curnow in this thread is getting kicked.

He missed basically all his draft year with a serious knee injury, had no clear best position or form to go off, got done for drink driving a week before the draft, was never in the frame for the top 5 at any stage and never wanted to be at Essendon.

Apart from that he would have made a ripping Essendon footballer.
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Funny, coz everything he did before he got drafted to Carlton sounds perfectly normal for an Essendon footballer after they're drafted :P
 
PhoenixBonez said:
The justification behind declaring that he cannot be a midfielder due to fitness reasons but can be a defender is outdated.
Any player needs similar levels of fitness to play AFL.
Last year general defenders averaged a distance of 13.36kms/game with 15.2 sprints (1.0 repeat sprints).
KPDs averaged 13.27kms/game with 12.3 sprints (1.6 repeat sprints).
Midfielders averaged 13.11kms/game with 9.5 sprints (0.7 repeat sprints).

Forwards generally covered less ground than either defenders or mids.

Due to the requirements on defenders to continually push up and down the ground and present attacking options while also having to revert to a defensive position ASAP in the event of a turnover, they now have a requirement to have the strongest aerobic capacity.

Thus I don't see that there is a valid argument that he is fit enough to be a defender but not fit enough to be a midfielder. If anything - forwards tend to need the lower aerobic capacity - but I can't see him finding a spot in our forward line at the moment.

I still have a lot of hope for the boy.
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Whilst the fitness gap has closed a lot in recent years between recent years. Midfielders still have the highest fitness requirement.

The assumption that kms covered is a valid reflection of aerobic fitness is poor. A midfielders game is more taxing due to more contested football that is not captured by kms covered.
 
At the time on players likely available I had it rated as 1) Francis 2) Oliver 3) parish ...gap.... 4) weideman 5) curnow.

Saying curnow is the same as saying why didn’t we pick danger back in the day. He wasn’t on the radar.
 

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We can keep the Curnow stuff to the Non-Essendon thread, thanks. The purpose of a player thread isn't to moan about who we could or should have picked instead.
 
This is what Francis was doing at under18s

Meeting Francis using numbers, which shows how exceptional he has been.

Francis vs Vic Metro took 12 marks (11 intercept mark) his courage & great hands backing back into packs was a real feature.
Vs WA Francis had 22 possessions, 4 goals, 5 behinds, total 9 shots & laid 6 tackles, 2 which resulted in shots for goal.
Champion data rated Francis the 6th best player in the championships behind 1. Hooper, 2. Mills, 3. Schache 4. Weitering, 5. Parish.

In a Round 2 victory over Vic Metro, the 190cm youngster took 11 intercept marks playing across half back.
Just a week later and he went forward, kicking 4.5 from 22 disposals in a convincing win over Western Australia.

Given Francis has spent the majority of his year on half back, comparing the South Australian with fellow highly rated defender Weitering makes for interesting reading.
Francis took 14 contested marks across the championships, 27 intercept marks and recorded a tally of eight spoils. Weitering had 16 contested marks, 19 intercepts and 12 spoils.
While the numbers are relatively even, that’s without factoring in the time Francis spent forward.
Remarkably, he also recorded 13 shots on goal in addition to his superb defensive numbers. Only Schache and Ben Ainsworth had more shots in division one.

THERE was a training session at St Kilda's Seaford headquarters late last year when the NAB AFL Academy players were pitted against each other in one-on-one marking battles.
In front of a group of recruiters, the group of taller prospects eligible for this year's draft went head-to-head. Aaron Francis won every contest he was in. "He's going to go very high," said one recruiter who was there watching.

His first four games in the SANFL resulted in 11 contested marks in defence, ranking him fourth in the competition across that period, playing Full Back. His fifth match saw him move forward, where he booted two goals in a narrow win over Central Districts.

Francis may be the first South Australian drafted this year. The jumping and marking tall defender had an excellent game for the NAB AFL Academy last month, when he took nine marks in the back half against Werribee. Francis was awarded the medal for best afield against the older more mature opponents.
BEST
NAB AFL Academy: Francis, Parish, O'Kearney, Weitering, Hopper, Keays
Werribee: Sharp, Wood, Tarrant, Norris, Conway, Daw
 
The Bomb said:
This is what Francis was doing at under18s

Meeting Francis using numbers, which shows how exceptional he has been.

Francis vs Vic Metro took 12 marks (11 intercept mark) his courage & great hands backing back into packs was a real feature.
Vs WA Francis had 22 possessions, 4 goals, 5 behinds, total 9 shots & laid 6 tackles, 2 which resulted in shots for goal.
Champion data rated Francis the 6th best player in the championships behind 1. Hooper, 2. Mills, 3. Schache 4. Weitering, 5. Parish.

In a Round 2 victory over Vic Metro, the 190cm youngster took 11 intercept marks playing across half back.
Just a week later and he went forward, kicking 4.5 from 22 disposals in a convincing win over Western Australia.

Given Francis has spent the majority of his year on half back, comparing the South Australian with fellow highly rated defender Weitering makes for interesting reading.
Francis took 14 contested marks across the championships, 27 intercept marks and recorded a tally of eight spoils. Weitering had 16 contested marks, 19 intercepts and 12 spoils.
While the numbers are relatively even, that’s without factoring in the time Francis spent forward.
Remarkably, he also recorded 13 shots on goal in addition to his superb defensive numbers. Only Schache and Ben Ainsworth had more shots in division one.

THERE was a training session at St Kilda's Seaford headquarters late last year when the NAB AFL Academy players were pitted against each other in one-on-one marking battles.
In front of a group of recruiters, the group of taller prospects eligible for this year's draft went head-to-head. Aaron Francis won every contest he was in. "He's going to go very high," said one recruiter who was there watching.

His first four games in the SANFL resulted in 11 contested marks in defence, ranking him fourth in the competition across that period, playing Full Back. His fifth match saw him move forward, where he booted two goals in a narrow win over Central Districts.

Francis may be the first South Australian drafted this year. The jumping and marking tall defender had an excellent game for the NAB AFL Academy last month, when he took nine marks in the back half against Werribee. Francis was awarded the medal for best afield against the older more mature opponents.
BEST
NAB AFL Academy: Francis, Parish, O'Kearney, Weitering, Hopper, Keays
Werribee: Sharp, Wood, Tarrant, Norris, Conway, Daw
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His success at U18 level increasing appears due to him being physically stronger and developing earlier than his teenage peers (and the confidence associated with that). Unfortunately, he enjoys no physical advantages at VFL or AFL level and his performance reflect that. The peers he once dominated are now his physical superiors and there is high likelihood that he never catches up.

Recruiters and scouts seem to have a genuine blind spot when it comes to man-childs. They see the dominance but overlook the source. They fail to realise that physical development isn't linear and that those who develop earlier have a distinct advantage early on. Man-childs are often close to a finished product physically and they rarely maintain the physical advantage that made them dominant in the first place.
 
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If he was in the right head space and was fit enough now would be the perfect time for him to be getting games. I would have liked him in the team ahead of Brown and Hartley. You look at most teams and they have a few young defenders learning their traits in the seniors where as we have Hartley and Brown who aren't going to get any bettter.
 

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He is a long way from playing AFL. Interrupted pre-season plus low fitness base means that he is facing an uphill battle to play at AFL level this season.

I'd be working on the assumption that he doesn't play this season. It's probably the most reasonable position to take right now.
 
calyam said:
He is a long way from playing AFL. Interrupted pre-season plus low fitness base means that he is facing an uphill battle to play at AFL level this season.

I'd be working on the assumption that he doesn't play this season. It's probably the most reasonable position to take right now.
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Absolutely. The guy has never been fit enough for senior footy and now he’s coming off an interrupted preseason. It’s not hard to assume he’s a mile off it.
 

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calyam said:
His success at U18 level increasing appears due to him being physically stronger and developing earlier than his teenage peers (and the confidence associated with that). Unfortunately, he enjoys no physical advantages at VFL or AFL level and his performance reflect that. The peers he once dominated are now his physical superiors and there is high likelihood that he never catches up.

Recruiters and scouts seem to have a genuine blind spot when it comes to man-childs. They see the dominance but overlook the source. They fail to realise that physical development isn't linear and that those who develop earlier have a distinct advantage early on. Man-childs are often close to a finished product physically and they never maintain the physical advantage that made them dominant in the first place.
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Not convinced of this. Ollie Wines, Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow were also man-children who bullied opposition and continued to do so at senior level. Physical dominance at the junior level very often translates to physical dominance at the senior level.

It wasn't just the fact that Francis is big that meant he dominated opponents; he still enjoys physical advantages over many AFL players. I still find it highly unlikely that he makes it but you've over simplified it. Recruiters do probably underestimate the workrate and competitiveness required to get the best out of oneself and make an elite player.
 
Nice to hear some positive mentions in the training reports over on blitz.

A bit about Francis –
I’m a little biased and have been emotionally invested in this kid for a long time. However – he is just so impressive. He rarely gets beaten, by anyone. He ran well and lightly, he intercepted well, his positioning is elite. He uses his body mass extremely well in contests. He has great bursts of speed. Seriously, if he comes right he will be one of the most valued players we have had of the decade. Hurley+. It was lovely to see the boys get around him, also. Fanta giving him a hug. Hooker purposefully going up to him and having a joke. Begs back slapping him. It was really warming.
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https://discourse.bomberblitz.com/t/training-05-04-18-stand-by/12608/35
 
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