Bluemour Discussion Thread XIV - Facts Not Welcome

[stuballs]

Cleanup on Isle 3 please.

 

[Manhattanite]

We need to hold onto the future first, bigger fish to fry next year.

Setters and Finlayson for Future 2nd + 4th.

Actually it could be our 2019 2nd Round + Adelaide’s 2019 3rd round. May explain why SOS targeted that Crows Pick.

It’s a shame we don’t have too many draft picks this year to take advantage of live trading. SOS would have been good at that.


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[DrZeit]

Actually it could be our 2019 2nd Round + Adelaide’s 2019 3rd round. May explain why SOS targeted that Crows Pick.

It’s a shame we don’t have too many draft picks this year to take advantage of live trading. SOS would have been good at that.


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For Setters + Finlayson or just Setters you reckon? Just Setters is overs, but he's contracted (But did they ask him to explore his options?).

 

[Juddrockz]

Did you not get the memo that GWS are playing hardball??

They're pissed off that we didn't cough up pick #1 for Shiel and now want our future 1st for Setters.

It could be SOS filthy with GWS on the Shiel deal,more like it?.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Rumour Discussion thread not the top thread on the clubs page.. this truly is the twilight zone we have entered

 

[I bleed Blue]

Gees it got a bit melty last night.

Guess not everyone can handle the pressure of trade week.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

That surely can't be the reason.

Pick #1 is pretty much off limits every year. No one trades it because if the player ends up being a star, it's a PR disaster.

I agree it's off limits to an extent. This year, there's no way we'd let it go for Shiel + Setters. If it was Kelly otoh, we probably would have.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

That makes no sense, pick one was never their's to begin with, we were under no obligation to trade for Shiel and they are letting him go. More like they were expecting one of this year's second rounders for Setterfield or the whole story is rubbish.

I know it was never theirs to begin with. Doesn't mean they didn't want it.

 

[Manhattanite]

For Setters + Finlayson or just Setters you reckon? Just Setters is overs, but he's contracted (But did they ask him to explore his options?).

For both. And yes the Giants have asked both to explore options. North almost picked up Finlayson but are now out after they picked up Pittard as part of Polec deal. Newman could also be available at a low draft pick as Swans aren’t picky usually. And we know SOS loves his defenders.


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[Blue_Fusion]

Shiel is a significantly better footballer than Martin.

Not a huge fan of Jack, mainly due to his inconsistency, but there is no denying his talent. He's a beautiful footballer at his best, very damaging.

Have previously suggested I'd pass on him, but there may be an opportunity there worth exploring.

Plenty will argue against giving up our 2019 first, but if we can do that to get Martin, help secure Setterfield AND get back into the 2nd round of this draft, I'm jumping at that opportunity.

Didn't they decline *'s 1st pick this year? If so I doubt they'd part with JM and two 2nd rounders for our 2019 1st anyway.

 

[blue healer]

When has sos shown in the last 3 years he will get pushed over.

He has a good track record of getting fair outcomes.

People should also remember that we have taken a fair amount of crap off the GWS books over the last few years to get those fair outcomes.

IMO GWS have never really dealt fairly with us and screwed us to the max every time we get into negotiations with them and if some of the thoughts on here are somewhere near the truth they have used us, once again, to bring * into the Shiel picture.

I was saying early in the piece that I was very sceptical that a future second would get Setterfield done. I reckon our future first is going to have to feature in some way (perhaps a later pick back) to get this over the line.

My preference would be to never deal with those conniving campaigners again.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It could be SOS filthy with GWS on the Shiel deal,more like it?.

Not sure. Given it's GWS playing hard ball I'd say it's more likely them.

I've mentioned this a few times but can't help to keep thinking back to the Marchbank trade and how they gave us an in principle agreement to trade him for a 2nd rounder then with like 2-3 days left demanded a 1st round pick.

 

[blue healer]

Tell us about the playing games at Princes Park again and again and again.
Peanut .

I have no idea what you guys are arguing about and care less but IMO this kind of rubbish needs to be discouraged in this forum.

 

[GoBlues!]

Help! I need some Bluemours.
Help! Not just any Bluemours.
Help! You know I need some Bluemours.
HELP!

When we were getting Shiel two days before today,
I never needed anybody's help in any way.
But now he's off to * and I'm not so self assured,
Now I find I'm freaking out, even though it's early doors.

Help me ITKs, I'm feeling down
And we do appreciate you being 'round
Help me get my feet back on the ground
Won't you please, please help me?

Let it be.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Kevin Sheahan: “<insert indigenous footballer name here> plays like Andrew McLeod”

 

[blue healer]

You are still missing the main point.

The player makes the decision, which club he wants to join. If anything a FA is easier to sign.

Say we finish 12th next year

2 players, one Coniglio, the other Kelly, both say no, end of story

Same players, both say yes, we sign Coniglio. Kelly wants to join, but GWS want a better deal. Can you see how that could stifle a trade?

The first, most important step, is having a player nominate

And the next most important step should be to have them out of contract. GWS will be able to pull less strings with Kelly than they were and are able to with Shiel and Setterfield.

I like a good conspiracy theory and I think they were involved up to their eyeballs in the Shiel trade. We even had some of our ITK posters state early in the race that we were GWS preferred destination.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

And the next most important step should be to have them out of contract. GWS will be able to pull less strings with Kelly than they were and are able to with Shiel and Setterfield.

I like a good conspiracy theory and I think they were involved up to their eyeballs in the Shiel trade. We even had some of our ITK posters state early in the race that we were GWS preferred destination.

Then ericpascoe also mentioned that Essendon had the pick in this year's draft that they wanted, alluding to that being a factor as well.

 

[davis_756]

Let it be.

Sadly by Shiel dragging it so late and us being the ones who assumed we were getting him I very much doubt we have any other big fish on the line because by now everyone else is committed.

We also don't have the currency to bring in the likes of brodie unless someone wants to overpay for Jones so just hope setterfield gets done asap and move on to the draft, there won't be anymore exciting news to come.

 

[footyfan1978]

This was exactly my take too. 'Sorry, we're not allowed to give you the first pick'. Otherwise I'm not sure why a fifth round pick even had to be included in that trade,
The words just say: 'If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft.' We did the latter already, which to me means we can't do the former. I don't see any mention of it being okay if you 'upgrade'.

But that's the lawyer in me, maybe. The AFL operates in 'makey-uppey' world where it can do what it likes.

'
From 2015

AFL general counsel Andrew Dillon said the following rules would govern trading of future draft picks:


- Clubs must make at least two first-round selections in each four-year period. If they don't, they will face restrictions from trading any further first-round draft picks.

- If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft. But if a club keeps its future first-round selection, it can trade any of its future selections from other rounds.

When did we trade our future first?

I think the point is by trading our future 5th technically, we cannot trade our future first, hence GWS cannot ask for access to our future pick 1 in a trade for Setterfield.

Meanwhile we can approach the AFL once the setterfield deal is done and if a deal for Martin etc is achievable and ask for that permission .

Do we really need 1st round pick next year? We have been vigilant in going to the draft for the last 3 years and got Charlie, Harry, Weiters, LOB, Paddy, SPS, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, TDK, Fisher, Schumacher and likely to add Walsh this year...whilst adding Marchbank McGovern, Kennedy, Plowman, Pickett through trades.

I am of the view we trade our future 1st round pick for best deal we can get now because at this time next year it will not have same trade value or possible draft value it has now if we do what we hope and expect to do and develop next year and progress up ladder. Trading for Shiel was ready to work probably until Essendon added an extra first rounder for GWS. Now we got to find the next best target. If we find nothing we find worth trading it for to get an A grade mid we either then use it to trade for picks only to upgrade into top 4 picks this draft to get someone like Smith or Rankine to go with Walsh or we keep powder dry on it as last resort for next year. One thing we do not do is split it into bits and pieces of finding multiple B grade players and give up it's pointy end value to access single elite talent players.

TheRedPill what do you think next years 1st will go to?

Unless it draws out a Jack Steven, Luke Parker or Lachie Neale type player ( A graders or near A graders) in next week we then goto plan C and use it after player trading closed and trade it to upgrade into another pick of top 5 of this draft. But keep in mind we need to do that before Crows or Port try the same thing in regards to Gold Coast picks or Lions or Saints high end pick

Would be a completely change of tactic to trade off assets for McGovern without an agreement in place with GWS, and just saying to GWS 'you have to take our future second it's all we got left'. Especially since Setterfield is contracted.

GWS know we can trade our future 1st round pick. The precedent has already been set when Hawks traded a future round one pick to Saints and then trade a future second round pick to Gold Coast in same trade period. However keep in mind, Hawks were only allowed to do that after trading with us to get another 2nd round future draft pick. If we had not on-traded the future second round draft pick we got off GWS in Marchbank and Pickett trade the Hawks were not allowed to trade their own 2nd round future draft pick due to their 1st round future round draft pick traded to Saints earlier. We traded Hawks the GWS second rounder future pick which then meant Hawks held two second round future draft picks and traded their own to Gold Coast to get O'Meara deal finalised.

Right now we have our own 2019 first round pick, our own 2019 second round pick, our own 2019 third round pick and Crows 2019 third round pick and our own 2019 fourth round pick. We are free to trade any of those future round picks as of right now. But, if we go ahead and trade the future round one pick, we look restricted from trading our future second round pick ,at present. Of course if we gain another second round future pick from somewhere else we can then trade our own second round future pick too. Just as Hawks did in 2016 trade period.

Don’t forget, picks can still be exchanged beyond Trade Week...

Are you suggesting we might trade it for a high pick this year?

With this year allegedly being a 'super draft' i can't see any club trading out of the top 7 or so for our 2019 1st.

Personally i'd rather keep it than do that, so we have more assets to trade in a mature gun with it next trade period, instead of drafting another kid.

As for next years first, I have a terrible feeling it will be a top 2 pick and therefore I prefer to keep as well.

Due to that would be how the market view our future first round pick, it is exactly why I keen to trade it. I believe we can rise out of bottom four and we have to back ourselves to do that. Trade the future first rounder with that in mind, viewing it as best market value right now, that it will ever be going forward.
Whether that is for a present A grade mid or likely future A grader we simply should trade it if at all possible to get more A graders. The sooner we got more A graders the better.

Our future 1st is a prized possession it may well be top 5 and next year that gets one vclose to Rowell and absolute jet midefieder or Sharp there's a few others I'd want a little more than just to early 2 second rounders 2018.

Genuinely concerned how we’re going to nab setterfield without parting with future first. Hope sos has an ace up his sleeve

I believe SOS presently is in no rush and trying to see if he can wing it to trade pick 43 and a future third round pick for him. Having that extra third round future pick from Crows was smart to keep something up sleeve. However I am sure GWS holding out for more at present. We may work on some other minor deals to add more to pick 43 and future third rounder. When push comes to shove GWS will accept our future second rounder and pick 43 if it costs that much. But right now, if we did that it restricts us then trading the 2019 first rounder. We cannot do both. Hence why we not rushing in to hand GWS our future second rounder until we probably work some deal trading a Liam Jones for picks we could use instead.

I'd say that is what we working towards.

i'd definitely float next year's first and a lucrative contract.... you just never know

Setterfield in no universe is currently worth a first round pick. Don't worry mate.

Next year will be our last top 6 pick for a long while imo. 2020 is when we explode

FMD Martin is not worth our future 1st

Exactly, we certainly not trading our future 1st rounder for Martin and then putting Setterfield deal in jeopardy in any way.

Agree

Is our future first worth Martin and Setterfield if that’s what it nets out as?

It is, but neither on their own is worth our future first so I would be holding onto it and trying to get Setterfield another way , and then getting us in a situation to also get a genuine A grade talent with that future 1st or at worst trade it for another top 5 pick in this draft coming up as plan C. I'd rather get another top liner from this draft pool that in our system early with other youngsters than wait until end of 2019 to add another 18 year old in. But really plan B should be to get a genuine A grade mid in age range of 23 to 28. (Plan A was Shiel btw) We missed Shiel as it cost more than that single future pick but for next few days we should be testing the market to see if we can shake out another A grader mid instead. Martin is not that, so we got to see what out there.
If we not find anything by early Monday we move onto plan C see if we can trade it for a top 5 pick in next month's draft. Keep in mind though, live trading on draft night even means if Gold Coast, Lions and Saints still hold pointy end picks we could even do it then. That would be plan D though. Not sure we can afford to do that as might be bidding against Crows and Port for same thing and cost goes up.

 

[Benaly28]

I’m just curious to see how the Shiel deal gets done and what GWS ask for.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

I don’t understand why GWS are salty with us... i thought if anything considdering the trades in recent years it would be the opposite. Interesting...

We do keep going back to the same well every single year though, they may be getting sick and tired of it. They’re probably not happy having to continuously deal with someone who knows a significant amount of how their books are structured, you’d think that is now starting to be wild guess work now though.

Having said that, I think it’s been mutually beneficial especially if they are 1.5 mill over the cap for next year you can only imagine they’ve been pushing the barrel for quite some time and needed to do it anyway but probably feel they haven’t been able to get maximum value because of SOSs knowledge.

 

[davis_756]

I’m just curious to see how the Shiel deal gets done and what GWS ask for.

Probably 1st round pick 18 & 19 with 19 2nd back, essendon will be arrogantly expecting to finish top 4 next year.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Martin and Fasolo have very similar career stats...why would we spend an early first on Martin again?

Ed Curnow and Shiel have mighty similar stats.

 

[Smokey_22]

'
From 2015

If we not find anything by early Monday we move onto plan C see if we can trade it for a top 5 pick in next month's draft. Keep in mind though, live trading on draft night even means if Gold Coast, Lions and Saints still hold pointy end picks we could even do it then. That would be plan D though. Not sure we can afford to do that as might be bidding against Crows and Port for same thing and cost goes up.

Surely no team with a top 5 pick in this years draft would be willing to give it away for our round 1 pick in 2019...

 

[footyfan1978]

Surely no team with a top 5 pick in this years draft would be willing to give it away for our round 1 pick in 2019...

I would back Gold Coast would do it with one of their picks.
Keep in mind most other clubs would view our 2019 first rounder a top 2 pick next year.