Bluemour Discussion Thread XIV - Facts Not Welcome

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Seems to me that McGovern now done sends the message we will take Walsh and not Lukosius. And that would have all sorts of panic deals coming in for pick 1. Personally I imagine SOS won't even blink for the kind of thing that the GC rumour offers.

More likely the Adelaide clubs will just be chasing pick 2 now

 

[HARKER]

You need to have a strong nucleus of elite players before the bottom 6 can do their role properly.

How many elite players did the The Dogs and Richmond have in their Premiership years and how many did GWS have?
How many elite players did West Coast have this year? Two of their elites didn't even play (Natanui & Gaff)
I know we're all saying it a lot now, but it is sum of the parts business and not the parts alone.

Carlton have more than their fair share of 'potential' elite players already and will soon be adding another one, but I don't want that to become the obsession.
Clearly our fitness department wasn't up to scratch last year and by the sounds of it, neither was our coaching. There are a lot of other areas to fix, than for injecting high-priced A-Graders into the club.....but I think we may be getting there.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I was about to make the same point. Makes no sense to now turn and trade pick 1, when we could have organised this during the Shiel negotiations. As per ITK posters, believe this years pick 1 isn’t going anywhere.

Again, Gold Coast aren’t begging us to do this deal. They’ve probably only just floated it as a possibility. Shiel and gws wanted to know our offer. You can’t offer what you don’t have.

 

[WeninRome]

Seems to me that McGovern now done sends the message we will take Walsh and not Lukosius. And that would have all sorts of panic deals coming in for pick 1. Personally I imagine SOS won't even blink for the kind of thing that the GC rumour offers.

Think Walsh at #1 has been obvious for a while?

 

[Faz 2000]

Neale easily the better of the two for me

I think Neale is a very very good player. Better than he's perhaps given credit for. And yes, better than Dylan Shiel.

Seems like he's off to Brisbane, though, or going nowhere. If he were in some way available and open to the Blues, would be worth going big.

 

[Blue Chip Pass]

'
From 2015

AFL general counsel Andrew Dillon said the following rules would govern trading of future draft picks:


- Clubs must make at least two first-round selections in each four-year period. If they don't, they will face restrictions from trading any further first-round draft picks.

- If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft. But if a club keeps its future first-round selection, it can trade any of its future selections from other rounds.






I am of the view we trade our future 1st round pick for best deal we can get now because at this time next year it will not have same trade value or possible draft value it has now if we do what we hope and expect to do and develop next year and progress up ladder. Trading for Shiel was ready to work probably until Essendon added an extra first rounder for GWS. Now we got to find the next best target. If we find nothing we find worth trading it for to get an A grade mid we either then use it to trade for picks only to upgrade into top 4 picks this draft to get someone like Smith or Rankine to go with Walsh or we keep powder dry on it as last resort for next year. One thing we do not do is split it into bits and pieces of finding multiple B grade players and give up it's pointy end value to access single elite talent players.


Unless it draws out a Jack Steven, Luke Parker or Lachie Neale type player ( A graders or near A graders) in next week we then goto plan C and use it after player trading closed and trade it to upgrade into another pick of top 5 of this draft. But keep in mind we need to do that before Crows or Port try the same thing in regards to Gold Coast picks or Lions or Saints high end pick

GWS know we can trade our future 1st round pick. The precedent has already been set when Hawks traded a future round one pick to Saints and then trade a future second round pick to Gold Coast in same trade period. However keep in mind, Hawks were only allowed to do that after trading with us to get another 2nd round future draft pick. If we had not on-traded the future second round draft pick we got off GWS in Marchbank and Pickett trade the Hawks were not allowed to trade their own 2nd round future draft pick due to their 1st round future round draft pick traded to Saints earlier. We traded Hawks the GWS second rounder future pick which then meant Hawks held two second round future draft picks and traded their own to Gold Coast to get O'Meara deal finalised.

Right now we have our own 2019 first round pick, our own 2019 second round pick, our own 2019 third round pick and Crows 2019 third round pick and our own 2019 fourth round pick. We are free to trade any of those future round picks as of right now. But, if we go ahead and trade the future round one pick, we look restricted from trading our future second round pick ,at present. Of course if we gain another second round future pick from somewhere else we can then trade our own second round future pick too. Just as Hawks did in 2016 trade period.






Due to that would be how the market view our future first round pick, it is exactly why I keen to trade it. I believe we can rise out of bottom four and we have to back ourselves to do that. Trade the future first rounder with that in mind, viewing it as best market value right now, that it will ever be going forward.
Whether that is for a present A grade mid or likely future A grader we simply should trade it if at all possible to get more A graders. The sooner we got more A graders the better.




I believe SOS presently is in no rush and trying to see if he can wing it to trade pick 43 and a future third round pick for him. Having that extra third round future pick from Crows was smart to keep something up sleeve. However I am sure GWS holding out for more at present. We may work on some other minor deals to add more to pick 43 and future third rounder. When push comes to shove GWS will accept our future second rounder and pick 43 if it costs that much. But right now, if we did that it restricts us then trading the 2019 first rounder. We cannot do both. Hence why we not rushing in to hand GWS our future second rounder until we probably work some deal trading a Liam Jones for picks we could use instead.

I'd say that is what we working towards.








Exactly, we certainly not trading our future 1st rounder for Martin and then putting Setterfield deal in jeopardy in any way.



It is, but neither on their own is worth our future first so I would be holding onto it and trying to get Setterfield another way , and then getting us in a situation to also get a genuine A grade talent with that future 1st or at worst trade it for another top 5 pick in this draft coming up as plan C. I'd rather get another top liner from this draft pool that in our system early with other youngsters than wait until end of 2019 to add another 18 year old in. But really plan B should be to get a genuine A grade mid in age range of 23 to 28. (Plan A was Shiel btw) We missed Shiel as it cost more than that single future pick but for next few days we should be testing the market to see if we can shake out another A grader mid instead. Martin is not that, so we got to see what out there.
If we not find anything by early Monday we move onto plan C see if we can trade it for a top 5 pick in next month's draft. Keep in mind though, live trading on draft night even means if Gold Coast, Lions and Saints still hold pointy end picks we could even do it then. That would be plan D though. Not sure we can afford to do that as might be bidding against Crows and Port for same thing and cost goes up.

Great comprehensive summary FF78.
I'm not sure if this is all common knowledge to everyone.
But sounds like you have graduated with a Masters in Trade Strategy Methodologies.
I must admit to feeling a little confused with some of the trade combinations and how they get valued. It's like the bloody stock market & futures market.
Anyway, what you have outlined makes a lot of sense.
I'm sure SOS is working through all his Plans B - Z.
Thanks..

 

[coryne]

Gut feel - were waiting on the Shiel deal to go through to see the picks GWS hold prior to dealing on setters.

Future first into Setterfield and essendons pick 9 (maybe Jones or CAS on our side or Finlayson on their side).

Then 1, 9 & 42 to GC for 2&3.

If GC get 5 for May, then the king brothers at 5&9 seems very achievable.

If on trade night GC take Walsh at 1, then trade 2 to Adelaide for multiple firsts. If they take Lukosius, then we take Walsh and wait on offers on pick 3 before taking Rankine or Smith.

There is little to no incentive for the Suns to do thus unless the see someone as being substantially better than #2. Switch it so we have 3 and 5 and they have 1, 2 and 9 and you may be onto something.

 

[footyfan1978]

We can use next year's equivalent pick

Thought so too, hence it is good we can trade any way we like and not worry how we get young Ben.

 

[LanceRomance]

How many elite players did the The Dogs and Richmond have in their Premiership years and how many did GWS have?
How many elite players did West Coast have this year? Two of their elites didn't even play (Natanui & Gaff)
I know we're all saying it a lot now, but it is sum of the parts business and not the parts alone.

Carlton have more than their fair share of 'potential' elite players already and will soon be adding another one, but I don't want that to become the obsession.
Clearly our fitness department wasn't up to scratch last year and by the sounds of it, neither was our coaching. There are a lot of other areas to fix, than for injecting high-priced A-Graders into the club.....but I think we may be getting there.

It would be nice to be a bit more competitive next year though

 

[Tommy Alvin]

I’m an animal and a little crazy but:

Swap 1 for 2 and 3.
Trade 2 for Ollie Wines and a 2nd rounder
Keep pick 3 and take either Walsh or Smith.

TA

 

[WeninRome]

I think Neale is a very very good player. Better than he's perhaps given credit for. And yes, better than Dylan Shiel.

Seems like he's off to Brisbane, though, or going nowhere. If he were in some way available and open to the Blues, would be worth going big.

If Fyfe wasn't at Freo too Neale would be an AA.

 

[Zlatan]

If Adelaide and Port are looking to trade for pick 1, we'd only do it in the draft window imo. We can then use the picks we get for other players and/or the draft.

Once that closes, pick #1 is as good as our first choice player.

 

[WeninRome]

I’m an animal and a little crazy but:

Swap 1 for 2 and 3.
Trade 2 for Ollie Wines and a 2nd rounder
Keep pick 3 and take either Walsh or Smith.

TA

Wines can't kick. He's not worth that.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I’m an animal and a little crazy but:

Swap 1 for 2 and 3.
Trade 2 for Ollie Wines and a 2nd rounder
Keep pick 3 and take either Walsh or Smith.

TA

I’d give 2 and 3 for Ollie.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If 1 was going, surely it would've been on the table for MM so we could've got picks back what would be used on Shiel and Setterfield

 

[dlb99]

With all these pick swap hypotheticals, any chance of involving Port and getting Wynes?

We draft Bailey Smith with one of the GC picks.
Trade with Port, they get Luk and we get Wynes.

So our trade draft would be: McG, Fas, Bailey Smith, Ollie Wynes, and Setterfield?

 

[Pafloyul]

That last rumour makes no sense.

 

[raymagoo]

I think Neale is a very very good player. Better than he's perhaps given credit for. And yes, better than Dylan Shiel.

Seems like he's off to Brisbane, though, or going nowhere. If he were in some way available and open to the Blues, would be worth going big.

Just got a bit lost in the Fyfe hysteria and he’s a bit vanilla but an out and out gun

 

[Tommy Alvin]

Wines can't kick. He's not worth that.

He one of the best inside kids in the game and fulfills our needs.

TA

 

[LanceRomance]

That last rumour makes no sense.

Either does your user name

 

[ESKIE]

Wines ?

Doubt it

 

[Matty411]

If the May trade gets done then they might also just draft in all 3 SA boys and risk it. Walsh is fairly desperate to get to Carlton so I still think that's our preference.

Cheers for the info tcp. SOS trading down to 2 and 3 surely hinges on how much we want Walsh because by all accounts he's going at 1 to us or them. He's a young leader and future A grader who is on record as saying he'll commit to whichever team that drafts him. HUGE flight risk of the SA boys - especially Rankine.

Dream result
1. SOS trades 1, 2019 first and 43 for 2, 3 and 24
2. Pick 24 to GWS for Setterfield
3. Sell Pick 3 to highest bidder - Port would no doubt pay 10 and 11, Crows 8 + 13, GWS 2 x firsts - would likely be for Rankine
4. Take Lukosius or Bailey Smith at 2, leverage the other pick/s for a pick this year and back into the first round of 2019
4a. Best case would actually be Suns taking Luko at 1 leaving Walsh for us at 2, but can't see them passing him up

 

[Sheephead]

GC one of the clubs interested in 1. Possible trade could be 1 + next years first for 2+3 plus some other swaps. We'd then look at on trading 2+3 to the Adelaide clubs. Will depend on what the other clubs want to offer obviously, GC very interested in Walsh and aren't interested in mass picks from Adelaide due to their current draft hand.

Id be in on this. If they are going to take Walsh, then ADE will come very very hard to get access to both Lukosius and Rankine ahead of PA who will probably sit at 5 after Neale moves. Those 2 picks could net us the Crouch brothers, #8, the MEL pick, and their future 1st. GCS would probably add pick upgrades this year and next, plus Scrimshaw, maybe even some type of access to Martin. This deal could be a ‘mega trade’ and fill our boots with 23-26 yo mids and retain a strong draft position.

I am far from convinced SOS will keep #1. Have no doubt SOS will be playing the SA clubs off against each other if this is true.

BUT - if it doesn’t go well to the West, having Lukosius and Rankine ourselves would be monumental. Lukosius allows Charlie to go full Kouta. Rankine is young and brash, but a gun. We were all speaking out the roof on these two last offseason.

 

[Faz 2000]

One thing I hear on Trade Radio and read on BF all the time is that Gibbs went for two first-rounders. Like a) it sets a price for any other deal, and b) SOS schooled Adelaide and made them overpay or some such.

I think this is an over simplification and misrepresentation of the deal. One of those firsts was a mid/late one, and was actually swapped with our extremely early second rounder. It's not like there's a massive gulf between first round and second round. They're sequential. Pick 18 is a first rounder, pick 19 is a second rounder, and there's virtually no difference. What we really got for Gibbs from memory was a first rounder plus an elaborate swap of picks somewhat in our favour. Not two firsts, free and clear.

Likewise the Tuohy deal. Which was a shit deal, in isolation. We did not get a first for Tuohy, we got a LATE first (teens) for Tuohy and an early second (early 20s or so). Really we moved up in the draft <10 spots. Representing it as "got a first for Tuohy" is not seeing the full deal.

My facts might not be spot on here, but the message is right. The "they got a first rounder for him" analysis is superficial and incomplete.

 

[Smokey_22]

At pick 1, from all reports, Walsh is a no-brainer. Not because he's far and away the best player, but because he's as "can't miss" as any prospect, and I think also the intangibles of leadership, competitiveness that would really stiffen up our midfield group at it grows together. We definitely want him.
.

People forget this. We are potentially drafting our next captain after Cripps/Doc. Also a player with elite fitness which will come into its own if there are further interchange restrictions.