Bluemour Discussion Thread XIV - Facts Not Welcome

[Wickzki]

IF my GC contact is even close to right and the value of 2 and 3 is truly that high to the Adelaide clubs (now supported by the Port and Freo trade);

#1 + 2019 1st for #2 + #3 + (something)

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

---

List changes

Out: O'Shea, Mullett, Wright, Graham, Kerridge, Rowe, Lamb, (Byrne), (Casboult or Jones, preferably Levi), Silvagni, Shaw, Glass-McCasker

In: Wingard, Crouch, Crouch, #10 (Knightmare has Hately), #16 (KM has Collier-Dawkins), McGovern, Fasolo, (Setterfield), (one more draftee), 3 rookies

FB: Weitering - Jones - Simpson
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Williamson
C: E Curnow - Crouch - Dow
HF: Murphy - C Curnow - Wingard
FF: Fisher - McKay - McGovern
RU: Kreuzer - Kennedy - Cripps
IC: O'Brien - Petrevski-Seton - Crouch - Fasolo

VFL Team

FB: Macreadie - (Plowman) - McDaid
HB: Schumacer - ?? - Thomas
C: Cuningham - Setterfield - Silvagni
HF: Garlett - Kerr - Pickett
FF: LeBois - De Koning - Polson
RU: Phillips - Hately - Collier-Dawkins
IC: Lobbe - Lang

 

[La Dispute]

Smith is better than Walsh

If we can get 2/3 for 1 and a future 1st I’d do it

Grab Smith and Rankine/Rozee and we’ve done very well

 

[Zlatan]

IF my GC contact is even close to right and the value of 2 and 3 is truly that high to the Adelaide clubs (now supported by the Port and Freo trade);

#1 + 2019 1st for #2 + #3 + (something)

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

---

List changes

Out: O'Shea, Mullett, Wright, Graham, Kerridge, Rowe, Lamb, (Byrne), (Casboult or Jones, preferably Levi), Silvagni, Shaw, Glass-McCasker

In: Wingard, Crouch, Crouch, #10 (Knightmare has Hately), #16 (KM has Collier-Dawkins), McGovern, Fasolo, (Setterfield), (one more draftee), 3 rookies

FB: Weitering - Jones - Simpson
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Williamson
C: E Curnow - Crouch - Dow
HF: Murphy - C Curnow - Wingard
FF: Fisher - McKay - McGovern
RU: Kreuzer - Kennedy - Cripps
IC: O'Brien - Petrevski-Seton - Crouch - Fasolo

VFL Team

FB: Macreadie - (Plowman) - McDaid
HB: Schumacer - ?? - Thomas
C: Cuningham - Setterfield - Silvagni
HF: Garlett - Kerr - Pickett
FF: LeBois - De Koning - Polson
RU: Phillips - Hately - Collier-Dawkins
IC: Lobbe - Lang

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

These don't seem to be realistic.

 

[BluesRule]

I wonder if Port keeps trying to ratchet up. Now holding 6 & 10, I think?

If Port want Lukosius, Hately, Rozee, Rankine, they are now likely to get only one of those players, most likely Hately despite their efforts.

They may need to exit want away Chad Wingard? Would we do #1 for #10 and Chad (lets them have two best SA kids)?

Then swap #10 and #43 + Adelaide 2019 3rd (#43ish?) to GWS for Setterfield and #13 and GWS 2019 3rd (#50ish?)?

Then trade #13 and our 2019 3rd (#37 based on current order) to GCS for Brodie and #19 (Original West Coast First Round pick so we still make a first round pick in the 2018 draft).

We are out of the draft at the quality end, but we get 3 guys who are of AFL standard in 2019 (if not injured).

 

[Eiffel 65]

GC want Walsh

If Gold Coast want to trade up the draft for Walsh, it would have to be a compelling offer.

Carlton trade pick #1 and 2019 second rounder for picks #2 & #3.

If not, let GC take the risk on the SA boys. No point in giving up pick #1 and a future first (as some are suggesting) if these guys are flight risks.

I'll give you the tip, if the SA boys request a trade from GC in two years time, they'll be lucky to get a second round pick in return for them.

Generally draftees wanting out of a football club after two years lose significant currency.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Yep another month of live speculation..... great!

Are we going to be sitting here for a month, wondering if we will be trading Pick 43 for Pick 41 & 44?

 

[Matty411]

I would caution against expecting some big deal is about to fall.

Of course SOS would be working on 100 scenarios and something could always drop, but the most likely scenario from here is we land Setterfield and go home (plus maybe some minor shuffles).

It would have been great to grab Shiel, but it was not to be. Usually only 1-2 big fish move each year. And there's a dozen clubs that are interested. Often the players choose to go to premiership contenders or move for family reasons. Bloody hard to entice players after a 2-win season. Despite all this;

We grabbed McGovern - best 22 player (injury permitting) for another 6-8+ years
We will likely grab Setterfield - could easily be top 10 player at club IF he gets fit and fulfills his potential
We have grabbed Fasolo - cheap, experienced talent in an area we need
We will likely grab Walsh - should be a high-end midfielder for 10+ years

That's 2 x almost guaranteed best 22 (Walsh, McGovern), another 2 x best 22 IF fit (Setterfield, Fasolo).

Our backline is mostly set (just needs more experience and missing a small lockdown defender) - We didn't spend any assets there
Our forwardline had twin towers and not much else - we added two medium forwards
Our midfield needed boosting - we are presumably adding two top-end prospects

Trade week so far has not blown me away, but I am more than content.

I knowwww ferris... but

*I'm actually stoked with that potential outcome and it will be a huge tick for SOS and co if this is 'all' we do.

 

[ESKIE]

GC (say) they want Walsh.

Do they really though?

Are you suggesting they’re pressuring us to keep 1

 

[Arr0w]

Lonie only being offered a one year deal by the Saints, interesting

 

[Faz 2000]

Are we going to be sitting here for a month, wondering if we will be trading Pick 43 for Pick 41 & 44?

Yes. I'll be mashing refresh on the AFL website to see which club Pick 43 nominates.

 

[Duigan Alley34]

Smith is better than Walsh

If we can get 2/3 for 1 and a future 1st I’d do it

Grab Smith and Rankine/Rozee and we’ve done very well

Bit of an empty deal imo.
We will improve next year but id say we will still have a top 6 pick.
Would you trade 1 and 6 for 2 and 3?
Doing this while giving us an extra kid now also impairs our ability to package next years pick next year for a star which I think is in sos' plans.

 

[Matty411]

IF my GC contact is even close to right and the value of 2 and 3 is truly that high to the Adelaide clubs (now supported by the Port and Freo trade);

#1 + 2019 1st for #2 + #3 + (something)

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

---

List changes

Out: O'Shea, Mullett, Wright, Graham, Kerridge, Rowe, Lamb, (Byrne), (Casboult or Jones, preferably Levi), Silvagni, Shaw, Glass-McCasker

In: Wingard, Crouch, Crouch, #10 (Knightmare has Hately), #16 (KM has Collier-Dawkins), McGovern, Fasolo, (Setterfield), (one more draftee), 3 rookies

FB: Weitering - Jones - Simpson
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Williamson
C: E Curnow - Crouch - Dow
HF: Murphy - C Curnow - Wingard
FF: Fisher - McKay - McGovern
RU: Kreuzer - Kennedy - Cripps
IC: O'Brien - Petrevski-Seton - Crouch - Fasolo

VFL Team

FB: Macreadie - (Plowman) - McDaid
HB: Schumacer - ?? - Thomas
C: Cuningham - Setterfield - Silvagni
HF: Garlett - Kerr - Pickett
FF: LeBois - De Koning - Polson
RU: Phillips - Hately - Collier-Dawkins
IC: Lobbe - Lang

This would flip Trade Period on its head, Wick. Few things though:

• We've already ruled out Wingard
• Unless there's been heaps of secret ground work on the Crouch bros, I can't see us bringing in any big names like this
• I could be totally wrong and this could happen...
• We want Walsh

 

[ferrisb]

While I am waffling and pretending I know what I am talking about....

Fasolo is 181cm, but plays a lot taller; he plays more like Mark Lecras than he does Eddie Betts.

He is skillful and will kick crumbing goals but is probably best leading and marking and hanging around HFF. He will replace Wright in that role (and I think he is better at it) but I would consider Fasolo more of a medium HFF than that high-end small forward that we badly need.

 

[95blues]

IF my GC contact is even close to right and the value of 2 and 3 is truly that high to the Adelaide clubs (now supported by the Port and Freo trade);

#1 + 2019 1st for #2 + #3 + (something)

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

---

List changes

Out: O'Shea, Mullett, Wright, Graham, Kerridge, Rowe, Lamb, (Byrne), (Casboult or Jones, preferably Levi), Silvagni, Shaw, Glass-McCasker

In: Wingard, Crouch, Crouch, #10 (Knightmare has Hately), #16 (KM has Collier-Dawkins), McGovern, Fasolo, (Setterfield), (one more draftee), 3 rookies

FB: Weitering - Jones - Simpson
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Williamson
C: E Curnow - Crouch - Dow
HF: Murphy - C Curnow - Wingard
FF: Fisher - McKay - McGovern
RU: Kreuzer - Kennedy - Cripps
IC: O'Brien - Petrevski-Seton - Crouch - Fasolo

VFL Team

FB: Macreadie - (Plowman) - McDaid
HB: Schumacer - ?? - Thomas
C: Cuningham - Setterfield - Silvagni
HF: Garlett - Kerr - Pickett
FF: LeBois - De Koning - Polson
RU: Phillips - Hately - Collier-Dawkins
IC: Lobbe - Lang

Some NBA2K19 right there, with trade override switched on.

No way Adelaide guts their midfield like that for 1 player.

Not knocking you personally, just seems an epic pipe dream.

 

[slashin_velvet]

And Port paid a premium of over 1000 points to trade up to #6. There is a lesson there for Adelaide.

The draft is like "who's line is it anyway" - everything is made up and the points don't matter.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Yes. I'll be mashing refresh on the AFL website to see which club Pick 43 nominates.

We must keep Pick 43!

 

[Wickzki]

#2 to Adelaide for Crouch + Crouch + #16

#3 to Port Adelaide for Wingard + #10

These don't seem to be realistic.

I agree with you normally. But Port just played their hand with Fremantle. How much are these clubs willing to overpay for Lukosius and Rankine?

Those ideas came from a GCS staff member rather than a proposed deal I brainstormed. He'd know a lot more than I do so he thinks that there is potentially a massive overpay coming somewhere.

However, if it were on the table and I were GCS I'd make those deals myself and forget about pick #1. Then again, you need to have the individuals involved willing to go to your club and that's always a hurdle for GCS.

 

[Matty411]

Lonie only being offered a one year deal by the Saints, interesting

Pick 77 and a 2 year deal. Done.

 

[Zlatan]

Are you suggesting they’re pressuring us to keep 1

I suggest that if we were trading down, we'd have to assume the worst case scenario that we miss our number 1 target and get choice 2. If our recruiters think there is minimal difference between say Walsh and Smith, then we should back ourselves in and call the (potential) bluff.

 

[Matty411]

The draft is like "who's line is it anyway" - everything is made up and the points don't matter.

Great call - made me laugh out loud. Favourite post of the thread so far. Can I post this on twitter? So great.

 

[BluesRule]

If we ended up trading pick 1 for a number of picks I would love to have a crack at Matt Crouch.... reckon he's untouchable though

Maybe we make him a part of a trade with Adelaide for #1 (if we are considering trading it).

 

[Zlatan]

I agree with you normally. But Port just played their hand with Fremantle. How much are these clubs willing to overpay for Lukosius and Rankine?

Those ideas came from a GCS staff member rather than a proposed deal I brainstormed. He'd know a lot more than I do so he thinks that there is potentially a massive overpay coming somewhere.

However, if it were on the table and I were GCS I'd make those deals myself and forget about pick #1. Then again, you need to have the individuals involved willing to go to your club and that's always a hurdle for GCS.

If that's how much they're overpaying, I can't see how we knock this back.

 

[BluesRule]

GC want Walsh

Then they pay a premium. In my mind #2 and #3 for #1 and #1 in 2019 (#1 based on current draft order) is not enough....

 

[Coona Blues]

GC would need to offer something extremely good for us to give away pick 1.

They are getting spooked with the SA boys?

What would GC offer us ?

If indeed the Gold Coast is desperate for Walsh, there are plenty of options without the SA teams.
Trade radio suggesting some chance of #5 landing at GC for May, via Bris(Neale)>Freo>Melb(Hogan).
How about a complex deal netting us 2(or 3), 5 and their second rounder for 1, Jones and Levi?

Smith/King and satisfy trade for Setterfield without touching next year's first.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Pick 77 and a 2 year deal. Done.

"The Saints are keen to retain Jack Lonie, but are also open to him leaving Moorabbin."

Seems a mixed message.