Game Day Round 1, 2019 - Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast

[Viceregal]

to make life hell for the evil Weagles and the players to smite the heathens hip and thigh!!

Hopefully that is more like Sampson vs Philistia rather than the Scots Covenanters vs James Graham Marquis de Montrose (where the putative smiters were roundly smote instead)...

 

[M Malice]

Match ups-

Gardiner > Darling.
Andrews > Hickey/Vardy.
Walker > Allen.
Hodge > Hutchings.
Rich/Bailey > Ryan.
Witherden > Petruccelle.

Berry > Shuey.
Robinson > Yeo.

 

[Sausages]

Hopefully that is more like Sampson vs Philistia rather than the Scots Covenanters vs James Graham Marquis de Montrose (where the putative smiters were roundly smote instead)...

Well, in all honesty.....it's more like this image:

"Divisions of battle tanks rampaging across pristine, verdant fields and reducing defenders, emplacements and infrastructure to lifeless rubble, whilst the joyful chorus of GG or Lions club song is broadcast by hull-mounted speakers."

 

[CarterS]

For anyone who knows or follows betting at all - we had a line/head start of 20.5 a week and a half ago and now it's come in to 5.5, this is one of the biggest line moves I've ever seen. The market really likes us.

 

[3KZ is Football]

For anyone who knows or follows betting at all - we had a line/head start of 20.5 a week and a half ago and now it's come in to 5.5, this is one of the biggest line moves I've ever seen. The market really likes us.

We are good things.

 

[Sausages]

For anyone who knows or follows betting at all - we had a line/head start of 20.5 a week and a half ago and now it's come in to 5.5, this is one of the biggest line moves I've ever seen. The market really likes us.

Smart blokes, those bookies

There's always at least one upset of the round - the Blues got done, the Cats/Pies game wasn't ever going to fall into the realm of an upset victory, regardless of who won......other than that, most of the other games could be argued either way. The only clear upset games remaining would be our game and the Dogs-Swans game.

 

[CarterS]

Hate to say it but I think the Eagles are a value bet at +5.5, hope I'm wrong and not going to back it though.

 

[CarterS]

Smart blokes, those bookies

There's always at least one upset of the round - the Blues got done, the Cats/Pies game wasn't ever going to fall into the realm of an upset victory, regardless of who won......other than that, most of the other games could be argued either way. The only clear upset games remaining would be our game and maybe the Dogs-Swans game.

Don't quite get what you mean re: Cats/Pies. The Cats were outsiders according to odds, they won, that's an upset isn't it?

 

[blynd_freddie]

Oh go on take a leap forward, surely you could at least be indecisive?

 

[Sausages]

Don't quite get what you mean re: Cats/Pies. The Cats were outsiders according to odds, they won, that's an upset isn't it?

I guess if you wish to argue it, you could. But as far as the relative ladder positions from last year goes, you've got a bottom 4, 5 win team playing the premier....that, to me, is a slightly different level of possible upset from the 8th placed team defeating the 2nd placed team. A few tipsters picked the Cats (I did, yay me) but the bookies didn't mind them either - Ladbrokes had them for the win in their tipping advice, for example. Ladbrokes also have us for the win - out of those two results happening (Cats win, Lions win), which would be the bigger upset on the scale of upsets ladder? I doubt you could mount much of an argument for it being the Cats.

 

[Haso]

Here we go!

 

[M Malice]

Oh go on take a leap forward, surely you could at least be indecisive?
View attachment 640059

That gif is so bloody sad.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

If we play like we did against the Dees we are a chance. Anything less and we are bird seed.

 

[bato]

Anyone out and about in Brisbane waiting for the game? Flew up early and have no idea what to do to kill some time.

 

[M Malice]

Anyone out and about in Brisbane waiting for the game? Flew up early and have no idea what to do to kill some time.

Go to the German club, The Pineapple or pop down to Giffen Park and watch the reserves play....or you have time to do all 3.

 

[Tom14]

Anyone out and about in Brisbane waiting for the game? Flew up early and have no idea what to do to kill some time.

Second the comment to go to the German Club. If you have a lions membership on you I'm pretty sure you can get in with that - good beer, affordable food and it is across the road from the gabba.

 

[Lions_Insider]

Anyone out and about in Brisbane waiting for the game? Flew up early and have no idea what to do to kill some time.

From 3PM the NEAFL is 5 minutes down the road at Coorparoo.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Like a kid on Christmas eve.

Hoping we don't get hankies & socks

 

[scott_the_man]

Match ups-

Gardiner > Darling.
Andrews > Hickey/Vardy.
Walker > Allen.
Hodge > Hutchings.
Rich/Bailey > Ryan.
Witherden > Petruccelle.

Berry > Shuey.
Robinson > Yeo.

Reckon Bailey will play on Petrucelle. Petrucelle is insanely quick, he ran a 2.85 second 20m sprint at the combine from memory, which puts him as one of the quickest ever recorded. Bailey is the only one who will go close to keeping up with him. Witherden will have no hope.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Reckon Bailey will play on Petrucelle. Petrucelle is insanely quick, he ran a 2.85 second 20m sprint at the combine from memory, which puts him as one of the quickest ever recorded. Bailey is the only one who will go close to keeping up with him. Witherden will have no hope.

But Witherden has tricks.

 

[CarterS]

Smart blokes, those bookies

There's always at least one upset of the round - the Blues got done, the Cats/Pies game wasn't ever going to fall into the realm of an upset victory, regardless of who won......other than that, most of the other games could be argued either way. The only clear upset games remaining would be our game and the Dogs-Swans game.

I guess if you wish to argue it, you could. But as far as the relative ladder positions from last year goes, you've got a bottom 4, 5 win team playing the premier....that, to me, is a slightly different level of possible upset from the 8th placed team defeating the 2nd placed team. A few tipsters picked the Cats (I did, yay me) but the bookies didn't mind them either - Ladbrokes had them for the win in their tipping advice, for example. Ladbrokes also have us for the win - out of those two results happening (Cats win, Lions win), which would be the bigger upset on the scale of upsets ladder? I doubt you could mount much of an argument for it being the Cats.

Here's one - Geelong were paying $2.55 and we are paying $2.15 to win - according to the bookies, Cats (would be) the bigger upset.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Here's one - Geelong were paying $2.55 and we are paying $2.15 to win - according to the bookies, Cats (would be) the bigger upset.

Collingwood money always skews the betting...

 

[Sausages]

Here's one - Geelong were paying $2.55 and we are paying $2.15 to win - according to the bookies, Cats (would be) the bigger upset.

Like I said, you could argue it - SuperBru has the Cats result as an upset, with 29% of tipsters picking the result....they also have 81% of tipsters picking the Weagles tonight, so 19% have picked the Lions. Thus, using that as a guide, the Lions winning would be a bigger upset.

I prefer to simply look at the relative expectation of both sets of supporters in tandem with the industry - you're using the metric of betting to assess it. If you wish to believe that the Cats winning was a bigger upset than the Lions winning, that's cool - I believe differently

 

[iBeng]

What does Neds have us at?

 

[undefined]

What does Neds have us at?

Hahaha.

2.10, WCE @ 1.72