Resource 2019 Draft Watch (we have picks 6 24 25 39 46)

[Crow till I die]

Agree there are win/win scenarios that could play out on draft night. I laugh at those on here who get all shirty because we will have struck a win/win deal. They only want a win/lose deal - which is effectively a no deal.

the other idea floating around in my head is that we might be in the same position as GWS next year with Edwards. He’s a potential top 10 pick. Why not swap our 2020 first for pick 6 with GWS. We give them 37, 45 and 49 this year so they have the points needed to match a Green bid but get their top 10 pick next year. They give us their 2020 2nd, 3rd and 4th so we have the points we need next year but we walk away with two top 10 picks this year. Gives us picks 4, 6, 23 and 28 this year but no 2020 first.

I think it would be nice to get a win/lose every now and again. We had a lose / win with greenwood, at best a draw with keath but bulldogs i think got the better deal and we effectively gave other away players for nothing. If gws are over a barrel and melbourne don't bite then we should fleece them. Hell if the shoe was on the other foot do you think gws or whoever would do awin win trade to let us get a top 5 pick before our top 5 rated a ademy player??..like hell they would

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I think it would be nice to get a win/lose every now and again. We had a lose / win with greenwood, at best a draw with keath but bulldogs i think got the better deal and we effectively gave other away players for nothing. If gws are over a barrel and melbourne don't bite then we should fleece them. Hell if the shoe was on the other foot do you think gws or whoever would do awin win trade to let us get a top 5 pick before our top 5 rated a ademy player??..like hell they would

There will be other clubs prepared to deal with GWS pre draft night to help them trade down if it looks like we will bid on Green. We won’t be able to completely fleece them, it’s not like they currently have no alternative and they won’t leave themselves wide open come draft night. To think that we will have them completely over a barrel come draft night is naive. We are in a good position to strike a reasonable deal with them but they will only accept win/win. But win win could still work in our favour.

they may even jump at a swap of 2020 1sts with us giving them 37, 45 and 49 for points this year and we get pick 6. Effectively this means we swap our top 10 pick next year to this year, and upgrade 37, 45 and 49 for GWS first next year (say pick 20). that looks win win to me. They get their two top 10 draftees (but have to wait 12 months) and we get an upgrade.

 

[Crow till I die]

There will be other clubs prepared to deal with GWS pre draft night to help them trade down if it looks like we will bid on Green. We won’t be able to completely fleece them, it’s not like they currently have no alternative and they won’t leave themselves wide open come draft night. To think that we will have them completely over a barrel come draft night is naive. We are in a good position to strike a reasonable deal with them but they will only accept win/win. But win win could still work in our favour.

they may even jump at a swap of 2020 1sts with us giving them 37, 45 and 49 for points this year and we get pick 6. Effectively this means we swap our top 10 pick next year to this year, and upgrade 37, 45 and 49 for GWS first next year (say pick 20). that looks win win to me. They get their two top 10 draftees (but have to wait 12 months) and we get an upgrade.

it ultimately depends if they want another player inside the top 5 to go with green enough. If not, then yeah, they can deal to trade back down, match a green bid and get a mid ranged player (40's pick or something like that) with the points left over

 

[Thetrader15]

Correct, effectively picks 4 & 5 for 6 & a late first. I don’t think so.


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And the 6 becomes 7 when the Green bid comes

 

[Mismatched]

Correct, effectively picks 4 & 5 for 6 & a late first. I don’t think so.


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Except we don’t own 4 and 5, we own 4. We would effectively be sliding 2 spots and picking up a mid-late teens pick in next years draft.

It’s 4 for 6 + Pick 15-20 let’s say(Could be earlier too). It’s a good deal for us, it’s a good deal for GWS.

Sliding 4-6 with Ogilvy’s history of having a slightly abstract view on things means we potentially still get the same player, at worst it’s a slide of 2 spots on our draft order.

 

[Elite Crow]

Except we don’t own 4 and 5, we own 4. We would effectively be sliding 2 spots and picking up a mid-late teens pick in next years draft.

It’s 4 for 6 + Pick 15-20 let’s say(Could be earlier too). It’s a good deal for us, it’s a good deal for GWS.

Sliding 4-6 with Ogilvy’s history of having a slightly abstract view on things means we potentially still get the same player, at worst it’s a slide of 2 spots on our draft order.

And we’ve given GWS a massive helping hand.
The pick won’t be 15 next year, it will be over 20 with all academy picks plus it could get eaten up in Edwards pick.

 

[Mismatched]

There will be other clubs prepared to deal with GWS pre draft night to help them trade down if it looks like we will bid on Green. We won’t be able to completely fleece them, it’s not like they currently have no alternative and they won’t leave themselves wide open come draft night. To think that we will have them completely over a barrel come draft night is naive. We are in a good position to strike a reasonable deal with them but they will only accept win/win. But win win could still work in our favour.

You do realise GWS gave up 300~ points when they traded picks 12 and 18 for 6 and 59. 6 simply wont be getting 5em ahead of a Green bid givenAdelaide and Sydney hold picks 4 and 5. The 2 clubs most likely to bid on Green. If they plan to trade back down, they should have just kept 12 and 18.

Personally I think they’ve made an in principle deal with either Melbourne or Adelaide to trade for 3 or 4, but pick 6 was required to get the deal done, with neither club interested in 12 and 18.

 

[Mismatched]

And we’ve given GWS a massive helping hand.
The pick won’t be 15 next year, it will be over 20 with all academy picks plus it could get eaten up in Edwards pick.

GWS are just as likely to capitulate next as they are to make the finals. It’s what teams seemingly do after capitulating in a GF.

We potentially give up nothing, or a slide of 2 spots down our draft order for an extra pick in the top 20 at a time where we are rebuilding our list. We can’t be petty about what happens at other clubs. I’m sorry, but that’s a big win for us, what you’re basically suggesting is giving up a top 20 pick for what could very well be equivalent to a packet of chips just to spite another club.

 

[Elite Crow]

GWS are just as likely to capitulate next as they are to make the finals. It’s what teams seemingly do after capitulating in a GF.

We potentially give up nothing, or a slide of 2 spots down our draft order for an extra pick in the top 20 at a time where we are rebuilding our list. We can’t be petty about what happens at other clubs. I’m sorry, but that’s a big win for us, what you’re basically suggesting is giving up a top 20 pick for what could very well be equivalent to a packet of chips just to spite another club.

GWS have way too much talent to capitulate. Of course you’ve got to assess how much you strengthen sides when trading, you are in competition with them.

It won’t be a top 20 pick, next years draft is too compromised and that pick could get eaten up in points for Edwards so what have we gained?

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

GWS are just as likely to capitulate next as they are to make the finals. It’s what teams seemingly do after capitulating in a GF.

We potentially give up nothing, or a slide of 2 spots down our draft order for an extra pick in the top 20 at a time where we are rebuilding our list. We can’t be petty about what happens at other clubs. I’m sorry, but that’s a big win for us, what you’re basically suggesting is giving up a top 20 pick for what could very well be equivalent to a packet of chips just to spite another club.

Yeah, Adelaide have to be in this for themselves. Look at what is best for US, who cares about other clubs. Let GWS work out what to do when their 2019/2020 draftees are demanding pay rises and they have Taranto, Perryman, Himmelberg, Hopper, Whitfield, Coggs and Kelly all asking to be paid.

 

[70lethal]

GWS have way too much talent to capitulate. Of course you’ve got to assess how much you strengthen sides when trading, you are in competition with them.

It won’t be a top 20 pick, next years draft is too compromised and that pick could get eaten up in points for Edwards so what have we gained?

You can't say it won't be a top 20 pick.
If it's used for points for Edwards it means we used our 1st or traded it to GC and we have 2 x 2nd rounders.
Don't get to caught up with the compromised draft.
Not many are rated 1st round and the ones that are are going to force clubs to use multiple picks.

The key is who do Adelaide.want from this draft and are they available @ 6

 

[Mismatched]

GWS have way too much talent to capitulate.

Most reasonable, level headed judges had us premiership favorites for 2018 after we lost the 2017 grand final.

GWS have had the most talented side for about the past 4-5 years yet have consistently shown themselves to be flaky under pressure. They consistently struggle to play team orientated footy, instead relying on pure talent to get them by.

Their last 2 home and away seasons have yielded them 13 wins a piece and had them 7th and 6th on the ladder at the end of round 23. They were able to defy the odds to make the GF this year, but were utterly woeful on the day.

GWS likely make the finals next year yes, but IMO they're just as likely to bow out in the 1st week as they are to make the Grand Final. Pick 20/21 after academy picks is worse case scenario IMO, more likely is 15-19 range. Not a pick to be sneezed at I'm sorry.

Of course you’ve got to assess how much you strengthen sides when trading, you are in competition with them.

Yes, of course you do, but that doesn't mean that you shoot yourself in the foot just to spite another team.

It won’t be a top 20 pick, next years draft is too compromised and that pick could get eaten up in points for Edwards so what have we gained?

So what if it gets eaten up by Edwards, it means our next pick isn’t, which may very likely be a pick in the 20’s as well. Or we use the pick in a trade for Lukoscious.

From what I’ve seen and from the vibe from most reasonable judges, you can essentially throw a blanket over picks 3-9 this year.

Personally I think the trade would look like:
Adelaide in: Pick 6(likely pick 7 after Green bid from Sydney), Pick 40, GWS 2020 1st Rounder (Pick 20 for arguments sake)
GWS in: Pick 4, Pick 45, Pick 49

I'm sorry, but that's a big win for us. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

Remember that if GWS do this deal, they still go into massive deficit next year and likely wipe out their 2nd rounded, and possibly their 3rd, leaving their 1st pick potentially in the late 40's/50's or later. There's still a significant cost for them.

 

[Mismatched]

Take out our pick 45 from the deal and you’d have to consider it.

Gives us 6, 23, 28, 37, 40, 45.

we could then potentially use 40 & 45 to move up again.

It would be nice, but I doubt the deal gets done otherwise and I think our team would be far more worried about what's happening at the pointy end, than what's happening in the 40's.

 

[Mutineer]

From what I’ve seen and from the vibe from most reasonable judges, you can essentially throw a blanket over picks 3-9 this year.

4 - 9 maybe.....Green is absolutely in the same discussion as Anderson and Rowell, quite a few keen draft followers believe if Green wasn't aligned to the GWS Academy he'd be every chance to go Pick 1 . Also the fact the AFL clearly gave the GCS the priority pick was so they could take best buddies Rowell and Anderson at 1 & 2....if that wasn't the case and Green not a GWS aligned player my money would have been on the Suns taking Green with either pick 1 or 2. Personally I'd take Green before Rowell and he'd be a toss up with Anderson for me. Green offers absolutely everything Rowell does....plus size.

 

[Mismatched]

4 - 9 maybe.....Green is absolutely in the same discussion as Anderson and Rowell, quite a few keen draft followers believe if Green wasn't aligned to the GWS Academy he'd be every chance to go Pick 1 . Also the fact the AFL clearly gave the GCS the priority pick was so they could take best buddies Rowell and Anderson at 1 & 2....if that wasn't the case and Green not a GWS aligned player my money would have been on the Suns taking Green with either pick 1 or 2. Personally I'd take Green before Rowell and he'd be a toss up with Anderson for me. Green offers absolutely everything Rowell does....plus size.

Fair enough, doesn't really alter my point though, whether we're picking at 4 or 6, is a minimal drop at best.

End of the day, you back Ogilvy in. If, for example, he see's Dylan Stephens as who he'd pick at 4, and thinks he'd still be there with GWS' pick at 6, we're effectively gaining a pick ~15-20 next year for nothing. Or if, like many, he's splitting hairs between Serong, Flanders, Ash, Young and Kemp, then again a drop from 4-6 is of no consequence.

If, on the other hand, Ogilvy's dead set on say Lachie Ash or Sam Flanders above all other, then you're saying thanks, but no thanks to GWS.

 

[jirkago]

Seems the draft is destined to be made by Melbourne and us. If we play it right, gWS trade with us and we get pick 6 and first next year. I hope we can trade it for a pick inside 20 in this year and pick up a Gould or someone else.

Melbourne need to bid on Henry at 8, Freo match.
If GWS doesn’t trade and we bid on Green, then GWS is out of the first round. Freo only get pick 7 and they are pushed bad as well. All our picks are moved up by 2.

Ideal scenario is we bid on Green and Melbourne bid on Henry, we all win


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[Mismatched]

Agree there are win/win scenarios that could play out on draft night. I laugh at those on here who get all shirty because we will have struck a win/win deal. They only want a win/lose deal - which is effectively a no deal.

Yep, a win/win deal is still a win. Too many other clubs, to many other factors go into success than to get too worried about the other club getting a "win" as well.

the other idea floating around in my head is that we might be in the same position as GWS next year with Edwards. He’s a potential top 10 pick. Why not swap our 2020 first for pick 6 with GWS. We give them 37, 45 and 49 this year so they have the points needed to match a Green bid but get their top 10 pick next year. They give us their 2020 2nd, 3rd and 4th so we have the points we need next year but we walk away with two top 10 picks this year. Gives us picks 4, 6, 23 and 28 this year but no 2020 first.

I like where your head's at

Would need a little balancing I suspect, ie each pick out in the 2019 draft would need to have a pick coming in for the 2019 draft, assuming trade done on draft night. Can't suddenly have more or less picks than list spots.

Could essentially end up balancing something like:
GWS in: Pick 37, 45, 49 + Adel 2020 1st + 4th (we have 3 of them currently and I think probably balances nicer for GWS)
Adel in: Pick 6, 80, 94 + GWS 2020 2nd, 3rd

Leaves clubs with:
Adel 2019: Pick 4, 6, 23, 28, 80, 94
Adel 2020: Adel 2nd, WB 2nd, GWS 2nd, GWS 3rd, Plus 2x 4th rounders

GWS: 2019: Pick 37, 40, 45, 49, 59, 60
GWS 2020: Adel 1st, GWS 1st, Adel 4th, GWS 4th

Very interesting idea, we may end up with a reasonable pick next year, but allows us to cash in now in case we see a resurgence like we've done under our last few coaches in their 1st year. We may be matching reasonable picks on Edwards/Borlase anyway. I like it.

 

[StonesThrow]

4 - 9 maybe.....Green is absolutely in the same discussion as Anderson and Rowell, quite a few keen draft followers believe if Green wasn't aligned to the GWS Academy he'd be every chance to go Pick 1 . Also the fact the AFL clearly gave the GCS the priority pick was so they could take best buddies Rowell and Anderson at 1 & 2....if that wasn't the case and Green not a GWS aligned player my money would have been on the Suns taking Green with either pick 1 or 2. Personally I'd take Green before Rowell and he'd be a toss up with Anderson for me. Green offers absolutely everything Rowell does....plus size.

Rowell with the better disposal from what I've seen. But yeah, not too far apart.

 

[Crowked]

Agree there are win/win scenarios that could play out on draft night. I laugh at those on here who get all shirty because we will have struck a win/win deal. They only want a win/lose deal - which is effectively a no deal.

the other idea floating around in my head is that we might be in the same position as GWS next year with Edwards. He’s a potential top 10 pick. Why not swap our 2020 first for pick 6 with GWS. We give them 37, 45 and 49 this year so they have the points needed to match a Green bid but get their top 10 pick next year. They give us their 2020 2nd, 3rd and 4th so we have the points we need next year but we walk away with two top 10 picks this year. Gives us picks 4, 6, 23 and 28 this year but no 2020 first.

If we allow a competitor who is advantaged to gain greater advantage, it is not a win at all.
Giving GWS pick 4 and dibs on the 3rd. rated player, effectively picks 3 & 5, in exchange for picks 7 and pick 15+ in 2020 is an absolute and outright loss IMO. We’re just getting further behind the pace setters.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

If we allow a competitor who is advantaged to gain greater advantage, it is not a win at all.
Giving GWS pick 4 and dibs on the 3rd. rated player, effectively picks 3 & 5, in exchange for picks 6 and pick 15+ in 2020 is an absolute and outright loss IMO. We’re just getting further behind the pace setters.

So you would rather us not advance our hand to spite 1 of the other 17 clubs? GWS have the talent now and we dont. In 4-6 years time when we MAY be challenging again, a lot of GWS guns will be retired or there abouts. Let them have the salary cap problems, Adelaide should just worry about making our own team better throughout the rebuild

 

[Cockwomble]

I’m loving Will Gould, are we a chance to pick him up?

 

[SGBeach]

Im hoping you guys and Melbourne dont trade with GWS.. and dont bid on Green.
The results for the swans could be..
We (The Swans) trade p5 for p6 + p40 + future 1st
We still get the same player at p6 as we would at p5
We trade up p32 + p40 for Freos p22 (They'll want the points)
We gain an extra 2020 1st rounder
and we all watch GWS match the bid for Green and use up all of their 2019 and 2020 picks to do so

 

[Crowked]

So you would rather us not advance our hand to spite 1 of the other 17 clubs? GWS have the talent now and we dont. In 4-6 years time when we MAY be challenging again, a lot of GWS guns will be retired or there abouts. Let them have the salary cap problems, Adelaide should just worry about making our own team better throughout the rebuild

If they keep getting given top 5 players, we will never catch up.

If it was GC, no problem. Part of closing the gap has to be bringing them back to the pack too.

what are we going to get with pick 15+ in 2020? Just another B grader. Meanwhile we gift them Flanders or
Ash to go with Green.

IMO, we need more than 6 and their 2020 first rounder for the trade to be anything like even.

GC should bid on Green with pick 1. GWS will match and the whole competition bar GWS would benefit.

 

[fuic08]

My ideal scenario would be the Crows bid on Green at 4 and GWS don't match.

 

[Mutineer]

My ideal scenario would be the Crows bid on Green at 4 and GWS don't match.

Then you've got a month to start preparing yourself to be very disappointed...