Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

The odds for Biden in the key states keeps shrinking and shrinking, however the odds for Trump to win the presidency have been relatively unmoved... the implied probabilities should have Trump at close to 100 to 1
edit: I suppose there is the possibility of a legal challenge baked into the Trump price, but I would have thought that unlikely

Yes I've noticed that maybe people are laying off to maintain that price.

 

[iluvparis]

The odds for Biden in the key states keeps shrinking and shrinking, however the odds for Trump to win the presidency have been relatively unmoved... the implied probabilities should have Trump at close to 100 to 1
edit: I suppose there is the possibility of a legal challenge baked into the Trump price, but I would have thought that unlikely

The market pays out on the EC vote though so a legal challenge should be irrelevant

 

[maskmcgee]

Got my payout too. Not going to bet again for an extra 200$, who knows how many months it could take to be paid out.
Can you imagine if it's Trump 268, Biden 270? Nebraska's second district costing Trump the presidency.

 

[The_Steadier]

If trump doesn't see out his first term (for whatever reason besides assassination) I'll be up 2 units, having wagered 0.3 units.

I'm not fussed with losing the 0.3 units, but I've just noticed that I think I can basically guarantee myself a win of 1unit all up by placing a lay bet of 1unit @ $17 on trump exit date of 2020?

(Ie a bet on trump NOT finishing as president in 2020).

Given the only way that can occur is by him either winning the election or serving his full term till inauguration day (in 2021)- that seems like a bulletproof hedge right?

Of course I am cutting my potential win at this point in half, but gaining a guaranteed profit of 1u if so unless I'm missing something?

Also by my thinking I also still have the door open to get a double win, (where my initial bet and my hedge payoff) in the event that trump does walk away before the end of his first term... in january 2021.

 

[iluvparis]

If trump doesn't see out his first term (for whatever reason besides assassination) I'll be up 2 units, having wagered 0.3 units.

I'm not fussed with losing the 0.3 units, but I've just noticed that I think I can basically guarantee myself a win of 1unit all up by placing a lay bet of 1unit @ $17 on trump exit date of 2020?

(Ie a bet on trump NOT finishing as president in 2020).

Given the only way that can occur is by him either winning the election or serving his full term till inauguration day (in 2021)- that seems like a bulletproof hedge right?

Of course I am cutting my potential win at this point in half, but gaining a guaranteed profit of 1u if so unless I'm missing something?

Also by my thinking I also still have the door open to get a double win, (where my initial bet and my hedge payoff) in the event that trump does walk away before the end of his first term... in january 2021.

Inauguration day is in 2021

 

[Checkered]

No real markets left on sportsbet - where should I be looking for the others?

 

[iluvparis]

No real markets left on sportsbet - where should I be looking for the others?

Betfair

 

[Unstableme]

Less than 70k votes separates Biden and Trump for Arizona, it's on folks

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Trump has drifted from 6s to 7s in the last hour or so.

The Arizona news not as good as it seems?

 

[Del125763]

I only followed WSJ for one of the EV's but they can't be trusted now as an election source. You must follow the Washington Post .....





Washington Post is quoting that only 86% of the count is done.


Exchange odds are

Democrats $1.36 v $3.10 Republicans


so i take my count back to Biden 253-214 Trump

 

[Del125763]

There are 5 states still up for grabs in my book: Georgia , Pennsylvannia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. You can make a case for any of the 5 states could go either way at the moment. (Numbers and sources from Washington Post) I have denoted the colour of the leading party as I type this now.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

I'm surprised the Arizona count is close as the guy who called it is the best in the business.
Whatever happens I think Biden wins Pennsylvania easily .
I'm surprised you can get $1.18 on Biden still.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Something odd is happenning in Arizona.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Something odd is happenning in Arizona.

Currently about $3 for Trump.

Despite a 70,000 vote (1.4%) lead for Biden with 88% counted.

 

[Del125763]

its neck and neck In Georgia as I speak. Biden coming home like a steam train in Georgia

the gap is around 23,009..............

 

[Del125763]

Smarkets Betting Exchange:

5th-8th November 2020 now the favourite to be the election winner declared. Electoral votes prediction predicted to be : Democrats 300-238 Republican. But there may be a twist or two left in this , despite a relatively quite movement in the last 24 hours or so.

 

[Joe9]

$1.20 for Biden at this stage looks almost too good to be true

 

[NonPhixion]

$1.20 for Biden at this stage looks almost too good to be true

strong name to post content

 

[kickazz]

+1 that Biden is overs. $1.17, when PA alone is paying $1.18 for Dems.


If you could be arsed I'm sure there's guaranteed profits to be made backing Biden and then playing the state markets appropriately

 

[mookieb]

Isn't it interesting that only certain (Democrat winning states) have been 'rigged'?

Surely if 'rigging' and 'fraud' was rampant- it would affect all states, or at very least all the key states?

Why would say texas for instance be immune to this 'rigging'?

That's a pretty special crystal ball the dems have to only rig the states they ended up winning.

Is that the point of rigging? To win the states that you rig?

 

[checkraiseulite]

the core point i made was polls undervalue trump (and other conservative options) in the context of a difference between betting markets and polls. nothing you have posted directly deals with this proposition.

....

my view remains trump will do better than polls currently show for a number of reasons including the silent majority or shy trump effect. this is likely priced into betting markets explaining, to some degree, the difference.

The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy

If public-opinion data are unreliable, we’re all flying blind.

www.theatlantic.com

In every swing state but Arizona, Trump outperformed the FiveThirtyEight polling average. This is not to pick on FiveThirtyEight, which went to unusual lengths to ensure that its averages were accurate, but simply to indicate how far off the polls as a whole were.



The coming days and weeks will see careful analysis and less careful recrimination, but no one seems to know yet exactly what went wrong. But the answer almost doesn’t matter, unless you’re a professional pollster, because after two huge presidential flops, pollsters have lost the confidence of the press and public.

 

[mookieb]

Lol rigged - ok donald

I'm sure the US has absolutely no experience in rigging elections or interfering in politics either in overseas countries or domestically.

 

[checkraiseulite]

everyone knows only russians rig elections

 

[mookieb]

You're right, it doesn't affect me as an Aussie, and I'll share a little secret with you, there are other people in the world other than myself. It doesn't affect me, but it does affect the tens of thousands of people who have been illegally sent back to the countries they were fleeing persecution from by Trump border police, thousands of children who are currently being illegally detained by Trump border police and the tens of thousands of lives that could be potentially saved by having a government that instructs its citizens to wear a mask and go through a lockdown rather than opting to let the most deadly pandemic of the last 100 years run completely unchecked. Plus much like our current PM he's a guy who doesn't believe in global warming which will impact an untold number of lives in the future.

But that's a post better served in the SRP board, I'll refrain from sharing further thoughts on here as it's a betting thread, hence the initial post advising I'm more than happy to lose the money I've wagered on Trump if Biden gets into the white house.

You can have a look at the sanctuary states to see the impact of illegal immigrants. Amazingly considering the shithole's they are turning into they're still staunchly democratic.

 

[mookieb]

Now it's just four years of Joe sniffing women.

He only sniffs young girls doesn't he?