Yep it sucks. Try and minimise the damage as much as we can hey.
Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021
- Thread starter Magpie45
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Yep it sucks. Try and minimise the damage as much as we can hey.
Once we get to ~80% vaccination rates I see no reason why vaccinated travellers should be unable to enter freely.
*assuming data from other countries who do open up remains positive
*assuming data from other countries who do open up remains positive
Shannon M
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Do people seriously believe you are a 2% chance dying of COVID. That's the CFR not the IFR. It's more like 0.2% and that's including all the dry tinder in their 80s and 90s (young fat people as well) that died in these first waves of the novel virus.
Shannon M
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Trials take many years. Many steps in the process were skipped. That's how they didn't pick up on AZ causing clots. Studies testing the safety of the vaccines in pregnant women are only just beginning, but many of your on here would happily strip pregnant women of their rights and autonomy if they refused the vaccine.
From what I've heard on podcasts, 80% is the figure for open borders, no HQ and no lockdowns. There's more here:
https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/
The 50% figure is one scenario they modelled:
Scenario 1: Australia begins to open up with 50 per cent of the population fully vaccinated
In this scenario, the low vaccination levels cannot compete with the transmissibility of the Delta variant, even in the low transmissibility scenario, and infections rise quickly (Figure 2.3).
Each infected person passes the virus onto about 1.6 others at the beginning of the outbreak. The millions of unvaccinated Australians offer the virus plenty of opportunity to spread.
In this scenario, Australia reaches herd immunity level – the point at which the Reff falls below 1 – about four months after reopening, in large part because of natural immunity due to infections. But before then new cases reach more than 120,000 per day at the peak, and more than 7 million Australians are infected.
The widespread infections mean that many unvaccinated and vaccinated people require hospital treatment, including intensive care. The healthcare system becomes overwhelmed; at the peak about 20,000 COVID patients require critical care at the same time, a level well above Australia’s pre-pandemic or surge ICU capacity.
There are 191 ICUs in Australia, with baseline activity capacity of 2,378 beds. Surveyed capacity of 175 ICUs suggest maximal surge would add an additional 4,258 beds, meaning total surge capacity of about 6,600 beds.
https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/
The 50% figure is one scenario they modelled:
Scenario 1: Australia begins to open up with 50 per cent of the population fully vaccinated
In this scenario, the low vaccination levels cannot compete with the transmissibility of the Delta variant, even in the low transmissibility scenario, and infections rise quickly (Figure 2.3).
Each infected person passes the virus onto about 1.6 others at the beginning of the outbreak. The millions of unvaccinated Australians offer the virus plenty of opportunity to spread.
In this scenario, Australia reaches herd immunity level – the point at which the Reff falls below 1 – about four months after reopening, in large part because of natural immunity due to infections. But before then new cases reach more than 120,000 per day at the peak, and more than 7 million Australians are infected.
The widespread infections mean that many unvaccinated and vaccinated people require hospital treatment, including intensive care. The healthcare system becomes overwhelmed; at the peak about 20,000 COVID patients require critical care at the same time, a level well above Australia’s pre-pandemic or surge ICU capacity.
There are 191 ICUs in Australia, with baseline activity capacity of 2,378 beds. Surveyed capacity of 175 ICUs suggest maximal surge would add an additional 4,258 beds, meaning total surge capacity of about 6,600 beds.
Shannon M
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The UK is close to that but having 70 deaths per day in the middle of summer, which might be like us having 30 per day in the middle of summer. No way the hypochondriacs will be able to handle that it would be 100 plus per day in the middle of winter.
They pluck all these figures out of the air.
Trials only take years because studies struggle for funding, and it can be hard to get participants to take part in studies for vaccines.
The COVID-19 vaccines are an example of how much easier science is with a bottomless pit of money and a population willing to do anything to get out of it. The studies took the same amount of time. The steps between the studies took significantly less time.
Shannon M
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Shortcuts were taken. That's why it was authorised specifically for emergency use. Trials take years. We're in phase 4 now where they are assessing long term effects.
Uh oh, we’ve got someone thinking for themselves here.
Phew, that was a close one.
Which shortcut was taken? Which part was skipped?
All you've got out 'it usually takes this long', without taking into account WHY it takes that long.
Shannon M
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The part where it takes years to trial medical treatments. If they were rigorously trialled they wouldn't have been caught by surprise with the blood clots. The vaccines have also caused as many deaths in 6 months as all vaccines combined over the past 31 years.
Blood clots associated with the AstraZeneca are around a 1 in 100,000 event
Phase 3 trials for that vaccine involved 5807 people receiving two doses of the vaccine (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#seccestitle200). This gives about a 5.6% chance of such a rare event occurring in the cohort.
Keep in mind this number of participants is well above the standard for phase 3 trials (3000 - https://www.healthline.com/health/clinical-trial-phases).
It occurs in a timeframe of days to weeks post vaccination. So not sure what a longer trial would've done.
Shannon M
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They say blood clots are 1 in 1000 for women on the pill, but I've never heard of young women on the pill going to hospital for blood clots let alone dying. It should be happening at a rate of 100x more than that of the COVID vaccine if we are to believe the numbers.
Something more is definitely going on.
They went from dismissing anyone who claimed vaccines cause blood clots as conspiracy theorist nutters to banning it for people under 60.
A more thorough trial would have surely picked that up.
Something more is definitely going on.
They went from dismissing anyone who claimed vaccines cause blood clots as conspiracy theorist nutters to banning it for people under 60.
A more thorough trial would have surely picked that up.
Yeah a phase IV trial like everything else.
Did you even read the post where I explained it?
It is a 1 in 100,000 event. Phase 3 trials typically have 3k participants. The AstraZeneca one had 6k, so it was above standard. Onset of the clot is well within the timeframe of the study. It is the type of adverse event that phase IV trials exist for.
Shannon M
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Those are their numbers but I don't really believe that nice round figure. They tried to say women are 100x more likely to get clots taking the pill, but I don't believe that. I've never heard of women being riddled with clots.
These vaccines have killed as many people in 6 months as every other vaccine combined over 31 years which is incredible.
Must be really unlucky because as you say it was trialled properly....
Do you have data to back you up?
Oh yes. I need to search for data to prove your point. And you can’t do it because?
Because you can't be bothered or because it doesn't exist?
