20th AFL Team

[Coolangatta]

If Canberra don’t get the 20th license then there’s no way the Giants will end the partnership. Over 6k members, healthy crowds, and most of all, having Canberra and Southern NSW as an academy zone are way too beneficial for them to give up voluntarily. There’s still time for Canberra to make a charge for the license. The lack of noise around them is a concern though.

Yeah, I expect the Giants to extend their Canberra deal if Canberra doesn't get their own team. Roos back to Victoria, Dees stay in Alice Springs, Dogs stay in Ballarat, Suns stay in Darwin, Hawks to Cairns, maybe Saints take up Auckland.

I'd still like to see top end round no matter if Canberra or WA3 is the 20th team so that it opens up new secondary markets to clubs seeking them. If not, I suspect the setup next decade won't be much different than the current one.

As you said, the Giants could look at Newcastle if Canberra is the next team.

If it is the NT, the Suns could look at playing a game each in Townsville and Mackay, or a game or two at the Sunshine Coast. And if Melbourne was looking to sell a game, perhaps back in regional Victoria or Wellington if the Saints take up Auckland.

But I suspect not a lot changes unless something is done to give the NT and NQ regular games without giving them teams as clearly neither of them are anywhere close to being ready yet.

 

[speedpeck23]

The majority of pre-existing fans would probably follow the new team as well as their own, both to varying degrees, but the number of dual-team supporters would dwindle as the new team becomes more established. Kind of exactly what I'd expect for Tasmania or the NT.

No AFL club is particularly dominant for fandom in Canberra. The big teams are obviously more popular, but it's relatively well spread across all the teams. So it would be quite unifying for everybody to have the one team to support. We can get behind a team rather than just behind a code.

Canberra is interesting. You wonder how many residents stay long term in Canberra when you have a city like Sydney not that far away.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Yeah, I expect the Giants to extend their Canberra deal if Canberra doesn't get their own team. Roos back to Victoria, Dees stay in Alice Springs, Dogs stay in Ballarat, Suns stay in Darwin, Hawks to Cairns, maybe Saints take up Auckland.

I'd still like to see top end round no matter if Canberra or WA3 is the 20th team so that it opens up new secondary markets to clubs seeking them. If not, I suspect the setup next decade won't be much different than the current one.

As you said, the Giants could look at Newcastle if Canberra is the next team.

If it is the NT, the Suns could look at playing a game each in Townsville and Mackay, or a game or two at the Sunshine Coast. And if Melbourne was looking to sell a game, perhaps back in regional Victoria or Wellington if the Saints take up Auckland.

But I suspect not a lot changes unless something is done to give the NT and NQ regular games without giving them teams as clearly neither of them are anywhere close to being ready yet.

Good job. I can definitely see the secondary markets panning out like that.

Do you think that the looming introduction of a national reserves comp could be a driving force for ramped up 20th license bids from WA / SA?

If the national reserves goes ahead then the SANFL and WAFL will essentially become third-teir comps. Therefore, I wonder if avoiding third-tier status will become a major motivator for some of these bigger state league clubs to try and step up.

The most high profile current WA interest involves a joint venture between West Perth and City of Joondalup, while there have been several reports this year about key Norwood figures preparing a bid. These efforts could potentially see the re-emergence of some proposed joint ventures from the past like Norwood-Sturt or West Perth-East Perth.

The AFL might not entertain the idea, although it’s interesting to think about because these clubs have been engaging in these types of conversations for a long time e.g., Norwood-Sturt was first proposed in the 90’s and the article below is from 2010 (interesting that in the article Demetriou predicted 2030 as a suitable time for WA3).

West Perth sound out Royals about being third AFL club

West Perth are preparing an audacious bid to become Perth's third AFL club as support builds for another team to rival West Coast and Fremantle in WA.

thewest.com.au

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Canberra is interesting. You wonder how many residents stay long term in Canberra when you have a city like Sydney not that far away.

I’ve always thought that is an issue with the Gold Coast too. It’s such a transient population that many residents have allegiances to clubs from elsewhere.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra is interesting. You wonder how many residents stay long term in Canberra when you have a city like Sydney not that far away.

If you said that sentence to a Canberran, most would laugh.

I'd say the vast majority of Canberrans prefer living in Canberra over Sydney. Similar house prices, but instead of being crammed into a suburb where it takes you 90 minutes to get to work, you can buy a house less than 15 minutes from work in a leafy suburb.

It's a bit quiet, but any event in Sydney is quick bus ride away.

You could even have a farm 20 minutes from Manuka. Could help us steal away some of the country boys from Geelong.

I’ve always thought that is an issue with the Gold Coast too. It’s such a transient population that many residents have allegiances to clubs from elsewhere.

Any new team is going to have to battle pre-existing allegiances. Same at Tasmania, NT, and especially WA3.

But in terms of transience, I think it's becoming less of a thing. I'd say we'd be less transient than Darwin. I don't know the Gold Coast well enough to comment on.

We have plenty of people coming in, but there seems to be fewer people leaving. Hence our population is growing so quickly.

One indicator of transience is renters. You're much more likely to rent if you're not planning on staying. And in 2022, Canberra had similar rental rates to Victoria, WA and Tasmania.

 

[Coolangatta]

Good job. I can definitely see the secondary markets panning out like that.

Do you think that the looming introduction of a national reserves comp could be a driving force for ramped up 20th license bids from WA / SA?

If the national reserves goes ahead then the SANFL and WAFL will essentially become third-teir comps. Therefore, I wonder if avoiding third-tier status will become a major motivator for some of these bigger state league clubs to try and step up.

The most high profile current WA interest involves a joint venture between West Perth and City of Joondalup, while there have been several reports this year about key Norwood figures preparing a bid. These efforts could potentially see the re-emergence of some proposed joint ventures from the past like Norwood-Sturt or West Perth-East Perth.

The AFL might not entertain the idea, although it’s interesting to think about because these clubs have been engaging in these types of conversations for a long time e.g., Norwood-Sturt was first proposed in the 90’s and the article below is from 2010 (interesting that in the article Demetriou predicted 2030 as a suitable time for WA3).

West Perth sound out Royals about being third AFL club

West Perth are preparing an audacious bid to become Perth's third AFL club as support builds for another team to rival West Coast and Fremantle in WA.

thewest.com.au

I could certainly see that being an incentive for WA and SA to bid for the 20th licence, but it's hard to imagine mergers working.

West Perth and East Perth merging would be like Carlton and Collingwood merging, and I'm not sure what the AFL needs is yet another bird mascot. Also, you'd think any merging between any Perth sides would result in the name of the merged club being 'Perth.'

I can't speak of how a Norwood-Sturt merger would go either. Maybe Norwood and South Adelaide would be better, Norwood's got the $$$ and popularity, southern Adelaide has got all that zoning and area the 3rd club could have for itself.

I actually think a merger between Perth and East Perth would be better, call them the Perth Royals, in blue and black, base them in Lathlain Park and move the Eagles to Arena Joondalup. But I don't know, there's far more knowledgeable people than me on this stuff, I could be way off the mark.

I'd still prefer Canberra, and I can't see team 21 and 22 having nothing to do with NSW/QLD.

But if WA3 was team 20, it could very well be a merged club, and if that's the case, you could see ACT and SA3 being team 21 and 22 if the state clubs do become extra motivated to not become third tier.

 

[neogh]

I have posted this before and will post It again...

If tassie gets the 19th side. Canberra should be the 20th side.

They already have A ground suitable for Aussie rules footy in Manuka oval. Sure, they might need to add a few thousand seats or might as well redevelop it like Adelaide oval in 2012-3.

Canberra team having to travel to Victoria or NSW wont be as bad as travelling to Perth or Northern Territory or even up to North Queensland.

Interstate fans complain about Vic bias, and yet want a team that is located technically in far northern Victoria.

A ground suitable that apparently won't meet AFL standard by the time.

 

[terrybull]

Good job. I can definitely see the secondary markets panning out like that.

Do you think that the looming introduction of a national reserves comp could be a driving force for ramped up 20th license bids from WA / SA?

If the national reserves goes ahead then the SANFL and WAFL will essentially become third-teir comps. Therefore, I wonder if avoiding third-tier status will become a major motivator for some of these bigger state league clubs to try and step up.

The most high profile current WA interest involves a joint venture between West Perth and City of Joondalup, while there have been several reports this year about key Norwood figures preparing a bid. These efforts could potentially see the re-emergence of some proposed joint ventures from the past like Norwood-Sturt or West Perth-East Perth.

The AFL might not entertain the idea, although it’s interesting to think about because these clubs have been engaging in these types of conversations for a long time e.g., Norwood-Sturt was first proposed in the 90’s and the article below is from 2010 (interesting that in the article Demetriou predicted 2030 as a suitable time for WA3).

West Perth sound out Royals about being third AFL club

West Perth are preparing an audacious bid to become Perth's third AFL club as support builds for another team to rival West Coast and Fremantle in WA.

thewest.com.au

Can anyone conjure up how a Royal Falcon logo could look like? Imagine their colours would be red, black and blue

 

[Canberra Pear]

Interstate fans complain about Vic bias, and yet want a team that is located technically in far northern Victoria.

A ground suitable that apparently won't meet AFL standard by the time.

I don't know why you keep calling Canberra "technically" far northern Victoria.

We're literally surrounded by NSW, and we're twice as close to Sydney as we are to Melbourne.

Nobody but you would associate a Canberra team with Vic bias.

 

[neogh]

I don't know why you keep calling Canberra "technically" far northern Victoria.

We're literally surrounded by NSW, and we're twice as close to Sydney as we are to Melbourne.

Nobody but you would associate a Canberra team with Vic bias.

If you consider the football heritage then it's technically far northern Victoria, and it's that one reason I am slightly open for a Canberra team.

Not that I don't know Sydney is closer, it's just that out of the major cities except Victoria, Canberra is the "closest".

Thats why I have a little soft spot for a Queensland team, but hence the term little, that's one step forward, three steps back.

Can we try not bring cities like Townsville or Rockhampton to the table? Unless we build a high speed rail or something like that leave the Barassi Line as it is because growing the game for 15 people with genuine interest is more loss than gain.

 

[Bjo187]

If you consider the football heritage then it's technically far northern Victoria, and it's that one reason I am slightly open for a Canberra team.

Not that I don't know Sydney is closer, it's just that out of the major cities except Victoria, Canberra is the "closest".

Thats why I have a little soft spot for a Queensland team, but hence the term little, that's one step forward, three steps back.

Can we try not bring cities like Townsville or Rockhampton to the table? Unless we build a high speed rail or something like that leave the Barassi Line as it is because growing the game for 15 people with genuine interest is more loss than gain.

I don't get your post at all, clarify, you have a soft spot for a Queensland team? Yet It's one step forward 3 back.

And leave the barrassi line as is because growing the game is more loss than gain?

 

[neogh]

I don't get your post at all, clarify, you have a soft spot for a Queensland team? Yet It's one step forward 3 back.

And leave the barrassi line as is because growing the game is more loss than gain?

Other words: only reason for a soft spot for a Queensland team I have is because its distant from Victoria. That's about it.

Soft spot for Canberra is because of its Australian rules heritage. That's about it.

I don't see the need to grow the game to a market in a city with about 15 people with legitimate interest, when the Gold Coast (that has a decent footy heritage) and Western Sydney market is still a work in progress.

 

[Coolangatta]

Other words: only reason for a soft spot for a Queensland team I have is because its distant from Victoria. That's about it.

Soft spot for Canberra is because of its Australian rules heritage. That's about it.

I don't see the need to grow the game to a market in a city with about 15 people with legitimate interest, when the Gold Coast (that has a decent footy heritage) and Western Sydney market is still a work in progress.

Are you referring to Canberra?

They're easily the largest unrepresented city with decent footy heritage.

I agree with you about the north of Australia, there's just not enough people, but a Canberra team would do quite well.

After that, I'm all for slowing down expansion until Gold Coast, Western Sydney, Tasmania, and Canberra are successful. Given that it may take some time before that happens, I think it's best to make the game as close to being truly nationally representative as possible.

NT just won't happen unless someone is going to fork out over a billion dollars for a stadium and to prop them up for at least 50 years.

 

[Bjo187]

Other words: only reason for a soft spot for a Queensland team I have is because its distant from Victoria. That's about it.

Soft spot for Canberra is because of its Australian rules heritage. That's about it.

I don't see the need to grow the game to a market in a city with about 15 people with legitimate interest, when the Gold Coast (that has a decent footy heritage) and Western Sydney market is still a work in progress.

Ok yeah I agree with that. I don't think you can be expanding into too many non traditional footy markets at the same time, even two was a stretch, they would have been better if they were spaced out a bit I reckon.

 

[Coolangatta]

Ok yeah I agree with that. I don't think you can be expanding into too many non traditional footy markets at the same time, even two was a stretch, they would have been better if they were spaced out a bit I reckon.

This time it will be.

If it's Tassie and Canberra, there's gonna be at least 3-5 years gap between the teams, with Canberra coming in no earlier than 2033.

Even if it's WA3 or NT, the new media rights deal wouldn't begin until 2032, so that's the earliest I can see team 20 coming in. Dangle the 10th game in front of the broadcasters and they'll pay more.

 

[Canberra Pear]

If you consider the football heritage then it's technically far northern Victoria, and it's that one reason I am slightly open for a Canberra team.

Not that I don't know Sydney is closer, it's just that out of the major cities except Victoria, Canberra is the "closest".

It's still a weird classification. SA has footy heritage, too, and they're not considered "technically" western Victoria.

We're the closest sizeable city to Melbourne, but only marginally closer to Melbourne than Adelaide is.

Either way, definitely not Victorian enough for another team to be considered Vic bias.

Other words: only reason for a soft spot for a Queensland team I have is because its distant from Victoria. That's about it.

Soft spot for Canberra is because of its Australian rules heritage. That's about it.

I don't see the need to grow the game to a market in a city with about 15 people with legitimate interest, when the Gold Coast (that has a decent footy heritage) and Western Sydney market is still a work in progress.

That's why Canberra makes so much sense.

We have the footy heritage, so a team won't struggle early as GWS has (and somewhat continues to). But we also have enough of an unaligned population that we have room to grow and to grow the market.

We are also, in no way, Victorian. Canberra with a Tasmanian team will mean half of the league will finally be non-Victorian.

 

[Walshawk]

This time it will be.

If it's Tassie and Canberra, there's gonna be at least 3-5 years gap between the teams, with Canberra coming in no earlier than 2033.

Even if it's WA3 or NT, the new media rights deal wouldn't begin until 2032, so that's the earliest I can see team 20 coming in. Dangle the 10th game in front of the broadcasters and they'll pay more.

The easiest way to get more games and more $ is simply to add another round, like they did with Gather Round. If they add another game when Tas come in, that will be 19 games more than currently and 28 more than 2022. Adding another time slot may appeal less to broadcasters and fans.

Unless a new market is offering something extraordinary (like a $715m waterfront enclosed stadium, and underwriting the club’s finances), I can’t see a 20th team anytime soon.

 

[Warwick]

West Perth and East Perth merging would be like Carlton and Collingwood merging, and I'm not sure what the AFL needs is yet another bird mascot. Also, you'd think any merging between any Perth sides would result in the name of the merged club being 'Perth.'

This would have to be last on the list of potential considerations in terms of the next expansion team.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The easiest way to get more games and more $ is simply to add another round, like they did with Gather Round. If they add another game when Tas come in, that will be 19 games more than currently and 28 more than 2022. Adding another time slot may appeal less to broadcasters and fans.

Unless a new market is offering something extraordinary (like a $715m waterfront enclosed stadium, and underwriting the club’s finances), I can’t see a 20th team anytime soon.

But another round extends the season.

There's only so much of the year the AFL can claim the oval stadiums without bleeding into the cricket season.

A 20th team also adds uniformity.

Fans hate that section of the year when teams have different numbers of games played and you can't tell where your team actually sits on the ladder. It'd be even worse if it was all season long.

 

[Walshawk]

But another round extends the season.

There's only so much of the year the AFL can claim the oval stadiums without bleeding into the cricket season.

A 20th team also adds uniformity.

Fans hate that section of the year when teams have different numbers of games played and you can't tell where your team actually sits on the ladder. It'd be even worse if it was all season long.

But do they really hate it? It is uneven more than half the season now - first seven rounds, four mid season bye rounds, plus every week from Thursday night to Sunday night.

It’s not that hard to work out. I haven’t heard it mentioned in years.

 

[Canberra Pear]

But do they really hate it? It is uneven more than half the season now - first seven rounds, four mid season bye rounds, plus every week from Thursday night to Sunday night.

It’s not that hard to work out. I haven’t heard it mentioned in years.

I hear it every year around the byes and I've already heard it about opening round.

Sure it's not the end of the world, but a rolling bye is just an unnecessary compromise.

 

[PenrithGWS]

Canberra and NZ and NT

 

[Aussie in exile]

Canberra and NZ and NT

NZ

 

[Canberra Pear]

NZ

NZ would probably be more viable than the NT.

 

[Aussie in exile]

NZ would probably be more viable than the NT.

I don't see many Kiwis embracing a sport called Australia football to make it worthwhile, and where will the money come from?