Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

A bit too early to decide on hits or misses at the comment. We can probably tick off Hollands and Cowan, but plenty to go for the rest to get there.

Durdin is fortunate to be under contract, and Carroll might still be let go.

I did say arguably but considering Carroll and Durdin were taken 41 and 37 and have combined for 69 games it is hard to say they were misses.

I expect, injuries aside, Moir, Binns, Cowan, Hollands, Motlop and Durdin (did you hear Voss rave over how we missed Durdin after the St Kilda game) will all play significant roles in 2025

 

[ferrisb]

Annual ferrisb annoying draft Q: Who are the players that retain possession?

I want the next Gulden. I don't even care about athleticism that much, I'd happily take the next Sidebottom; someone who gets the ball and has the vision, footy IQ and disposal to find and hit a target.

At pick #3 - from the little I have seen... this seems to be Smith. He finds open targets. He kicks to advantage. He handpasses to where his teammate should move to, not to a static spot. Anyone else better than him in the top 5?

At pick #38 - who's the roughie that hits up teammates time after time?

It sounds stupid, but all I want is players that get the ball to teammates....

 

[bigdog43]

Years ago the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA had pick 1 and drafted Anthony Bennet. They needed a stretch 3/4 and reached for him massively at pick 1 because he was what their current list needed. He ended up being a bust in what was a pretty uninspiring draft but I think clubs often get caught up in drafting for specific need in the first round rather than choosing the best player.

I look at Langford and think he'll be the best player but I'm not sure he fits our needs but I'd still take him.

 

[bmaurizio]

Spot on , agree we need a player that has the footy IQ , vision , innate creativity call it what one wants to create positive damaging football and hopefully winning score.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I did say arguably but considering Carroll and Durdin were taken 41 and 37 and have combined for 69 games it is hard to say they were misses.

I expect, injuries aside, Moir, Binns, Cowan, Hollands, Motlop and Durdin (did you hear Voss rave over how we missed Durdin after the St Kilda game) will all play significant roles in 2025

I expect Moir to be a star too, but he isn't yet.

The point with Durdin is you can count on one hand the number of good games he has played. We pumped games into SPS, LOB and Dow too, and nobody is claiming they were recruiting ticks.

The takeaway is that Austin's draft selections are still too young to assess the success rate.

 

[Sector 7G]

People are criminally underselling Smillie. In March he was ranked at #1.

Smith/Ashcroft/Lalor/O’Sullivan/Draper/Smillie then there’s Reid/Langford/Allan.

Will Brodie and Darcy Fogarty were ranked No1 in about March of his draft year. The fact that even as an oversized junior he was disappointing isn't a great sign moving forward.

 

[bmaurizio]

Langford and Lindsay both are not media focus targets, yet quality top 5/6 picks midfielders. Every one has their favorites, at the end, reckon quality all rounders are always going to be bust proof.

 

[Smiley43]

 

[Coops93]

0 picks for Lalor is interesting.

 

[Stamos]

Draft prospects’ verdict on closest Pick 1 race in years as narrow favourite emerges

Draft prospects’ verdict on closest Pick 1 race in years as narrow favourite emerges

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Blue_Fusion]

My order of preference (not that it matters):
Lalor
Jagga
Reid
Langford
FOS
Draper

Top 5 I’d be happy with. Draper I think won’t be picked in the top 3 (outside Ashcroft)

I like Langford, just not sure he's the right fit for us.

Draper won't get past the Crows.

Lalor and Smith are my preferences.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

I expect Moir to be a star too, but he isn't yet.

The point with Durdin is you can count on one hand the number of good games he has played. We pumped games into SPS, LOB and Dow too, and nobody is claiming they were recruiting ticks.

The takeaway is that Austin's draft selections are still too young to assess the success rate.

Again I said “arguably” in response to someone complaining about our record going back to Yarran- a time that has nothing to do with Austin.

Given Voss loves Durdin, perhaps what you are wanting from him and what he is being asked to do are 2 different things?

But let’s just say Cowan, Hollands and Moir are all the “ticks” we get from Austin to date - I would argue getting 3 ticks from 1 pick inside 27 is a pretty decent return and reason to think we could trust him with pick 3 in a super draft.

If, as I expect, Durdin, Motlop and Binns also become ticks in the next 12 months I would say getting 6 ticks from those picks is unbelievable and almost unheard of

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Draft prospects’ verdict on closest Pick 1 race in years as narrow favourite emerges

Draft prospects’ verdict on closest Pick 1 race in years as narrow favourite emerges

www.foxsports.com.au

Lmfao at Smillie.... very confident kid

“I’m just the perfect player to have at a club and that’s not just on the field but off the field as well,” Smillie told foxfooty.com.au.

 

[Kaladin Stormblessed]

I’m not sure what the contingency plan is.

Trade Pick 3 to West Coast for pick 12, Baker and Owies

 

[Bale Dup]

Lmfao at Smillie.... very confident kid

I kinda like that. A kids self belief that he can not only play, but succeed at AFL level goes along way imo.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HarryFlashman]

I kinda like that. A kids self belief that he can not only play, but succeed at AFL level goes along way imo.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

First player to come out with
“Here's the deal, I'm the best there is. Plain and simple. I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence”
Gets my vote for pick 3

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Again I said “arguably” in response to someone complaining about our record going back to Yarran- a time that has nothing to do with Austin.

Given Voss loves Durdin, perhaps what you are wanting from him and what he is being asked to do are 2 different things?

But let’s just say Cowan, Hollands and Moir are all the “ticks” we get from Austin to date - I would argue getting 3 ticks from 1 pick inside 27 is a pretty decent return and reason to think we could trust him with pick 3 in a super draft.

If, as I expect, Durdin, Motlop and Binns also become ticks in the next 12 months I would say getting 6 ticks from those picks is unbelievable and almost unheard of

Yes, you are saying 'arguably'. Thus, I am arguing they aren't evidence of Austin's ability yet.

I'm firmly on the fence here as Austin hasn't been vindicated or not vindicated. However, I always say that we support until given enough reason not to support, so we trust what he does with Pick 3 this year.

On Durdin, it helps to know that we were lacking any sort of forward pressure player for that Saints game, so Durdin was missed. It also probably highlights why Owies is no longer with us.

Statistically though, Durdin is down in goals, tackles, possessions, and arguably pressure acts. What he does have is genuine pace, and that is why we persevere and hope he produces.

All coaches have favourites and not so favourites. I don't think Voss liking him signifies that what we see from him is wrong.

 

[Bale Dup]

First player to come out with
“Here's the deal, I'm the best there is. Plain and simple. I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence”
Gets my vote for pick 3 [emoji23]

Yep. I want whoever we select with 3 to be like that. Even if it's internally. Arrogance & confidence. All top line players have it.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I kinda like that. A kids self belief that he can not only play, but succeed at AFL level goes along way imo.

Can have strong self belief without coming out and stating it publicly though...

Bit of figjam about him

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Reckon the prelude to the draft will be as fascinating as the draft itself.

Norf hold the key if they hold onto pick 2 or trade it. Tiggs the obvious ones so Norf can obtain 2 first round picks. If they're keen on Tauru as reported, they may not risk trading down even if he is a stretch at pick 2.

Interesting post on the Tiggs board from someone who seems to have a good track record, saying that they're keen on Lalor, FOS and Smillie. They'e in a situation if they trade up to get Lalor/FOS using pick 6, they'll have little chance on getting Smillie who the Saints are apparently keen on.

Also says that FOS is the player we're targeting, which is why they're keen on trading up with Norf. I guess we'll be hoping that Norf retain their pick which likely gives us better access to our target - but if the rumour has any legs and the Tiggs trade up to take Lalor and FOS, I'd be more than happy with Jagga.

 

[ctwenty1]

Lmfao at Smillie.... very confident kid

carlton supporter

 

[Bale Dup]

Can have strong self belief without coming out and stating it publicly though...

Bit of figjam about him

Absolutely! Which is why I said "kinda like it"
I would much prefer they held that strong self belief, arrogance etc within themselves, but the main thing is that they have it. Strength of mind and character are key attributes a draftee needs imo.

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Again I said “arguably” in response to someone complaining about our record going back to Yarran- a time that has nothing to do with Austin.

Given Voss loves Durdin, perhaps what you are wanting from him and what he is being asked to do are 2 different things?

But let’s just say Cowan, Hollands and Moir are all the “ticks” we get from Austin to date - I would argue getting 3 ticks from 1 pick inside 27 is a pretty decent return and reason to think we could trust him with pick 3 in a super draft.

If, as I expect, Durdin, Motlop and Binns also become ticks in the next 12 months I would say getting 6 ticks from those picks is unbelievable and almost unheard of

That sounds like an 'ad populum' statement to me.

I have big hopes for Moir and at least some for Cowan but I would have hoped for more from Hollands at this stage. Of the others, I'm too fatigued by the whole thing to know what a pass mark would look like. Binns may not make it, Motlop is inconsistent and Durdin was always a relatively low possession player who is not really an athletic standout at his height and build.

I can imagine the poor draft(s) argument if things continue to be brought up but you create your own opportunities, IMO.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Yes, you are saying 'arguably'. This, I am arguing they aren't evidence of Austin's ability yet.

I'm firmly on the fence here as Austin hasn't been vindicated or not vindicated. However, I always say that we support until given enough reason not to support, so we trust what he does with Pick 3 this year.

On Durdin, it helps to know that we were lacking any sort of forward pressure player for that Saints game, so Durdin was missed. It also probably highlights why Owies is no longer with us.

Statistically though, Durdin is down in goals, tackles, possessions, and arguably pressure acts. What he does have is genuine pace, and that is why we persevere and hope he produces.

All coaches have favourites and not so favourites. I don't think Voss liking him signifies that what we see from him is wrong.

Yep, clearly the coaches opinion of a player and your opinion of the player should be treated equally.

But on Austin I would say 2 things, a player not being a hit does not make them a miss and this will be Austin’s 5 draft and in 2025 there will likely be between 3 and 7 best 23 players in a side expected to make finals from those drafts with just 1 top 10 pick and 2 inside 27 - that is a pretty decent record.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

That sounds like an 'ad populum' statement to me.

I have big hopes for Moir and at least some for Cowan but I would have hoped for more from Hollands at this stage. Of the others, I'm too fatigued by the whole thing to know what a pass mark would look like. Binns may not make it, Motlop is inconsistent and Durdin was always a relatively low possession player who is not really an athletic standout at his height and build.

I can imagine the poor draft(s) argument if things continue to be brought up but you create your own opportunities, IMO.

Going back to where we started, look at the picks Austin has had - regardless of the quality of the draft picks in that range are always going to be speculative