Fixture 2026 Fixture Discussion

[grassman75]

we were shit against the top 8 last year. We will know quickly if we are gonna be shit against the top 8 next year. No big deal.

Also the whinging about GMHBA is funny. We are a western corridor club. The rationale is that for a majority of our regional western members the drive there is shorter or easier than going to the city. It would be nice for competitive balance to play them at marvel every second year but it’s not that bad playing down there.

Isn’t it nigh on impossible for opposition to get a seat at Geel?

 

[BomToydd]

Hawthorn poaching big spanner even less ideal now with two away games against them. Watch them get Butters next year too. Bont might have to get married again and invite him to the wedding next time for us to have a chance

 

[BomToydd]

Two MCG games is a joke. We almost have a bigger disadvantage in finals than interstate teams.
And the AFL just makes high finishes more challenging for us because we have a low supporter base

 

[Proffessor]

Was the same v Brisbane last year. The AFL really haven’t figured out how to fixture around gather round. Carlton playing against the crows three times is horribly unfair.

I was gonna go to gather round, but not with the fixture they’ve got. Dogs v Hawks and Pies v Freo the only games worth seeing. The Sunday in particular is horrible, you’d think cats v gws and tigers v eagles would be much better.

Last year with Brisbane we were listed as the home team, and by playing Brisbane a second time in Brisbane it was clear that we were forced to give up our home game.

Now against Hawthorn next year, apparently, we aren't even entitled to the idea or appearance of a lost home game.

 

[Doggies7]

We do have a few handy rest advantage games in the first half of the season.

Round 5 (Gather round vs Hawks) we come off a 6 day break where as the Hawks are coming off Easter Monday against Geelong and have a 5 day break travelling to SA.

Round 6 (against Geelong) we come off a 6 day break again while Geelong get a 5 day break coming home from Gather round.

Round 8 (against Freo) we have an 8 day break before our Friday night game and Freo travel across country on a 6 day break.

Round 13 and 14 vs Hawks and Crows we are on the wrong end of this rest advantage coming into our round 16 bye, so this could be an issue.

I think getting the second bye is an advantage too over other teams. Play a block of 4-5 games ( including pre season games, then have a bye) then play a block of another 11 games then the round 16 bye before our run home.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Isn’t it nigh on impossible for opposition to get a seat at Geel?

If anything we should be pushing for home games at GMHBA whilst Ballarat is off the cards, offer discount/cheaper seats to Ballarat-members

 

[grassman75]

Two MCG games is a joke. We almost have a bigger disadvantage in finals than interstate teams.
And the AFL just makes high finishes more challenging for us because we have a low supporter base

In 2016, Swans played more MCG games than us that year

 

[Doggy]

We do have a few handy rest advantage games in the first half of the season.

Round 5 (Gather round vs Hawks) we come off a 6 day break where as the Hawks are coming off Easter Monday against Geelong and have a 5 day break travelling to SA.

Round 6 (against Geelong) we come off a 6 day break again while Geelong get a 5 day break coming home from Gather round.

Round 8 (against Freo) we have an 8 day break before our Friday night game and Freo travel across country on a 6 day break.

Round 13 and 14 vs Hawks and Crows we are on the wrong end of this rest advantage coming into our round 16 bye, so this could be an issue.

I think getting the second bye is an advantage too over other teams. Play a block of 4-5 games ( including pre season games, then have a bye) then play a block of another 11 games then the round 16 bye before our run home.

Of course we didn't get the round 1 advantage

 

[BigFloppa]

After having a quick scan of the full fixture, I don't see us losing a game next year as long as Sellwood stays fit

 

[MYOB]

Isn’t it nigh on impossible for opposition to get a seat at Geel?

Since the newest stand opened, if you want to get a ticket, you can

 

[lachy]

The fixture is what it is, a fixture.

This far out it looks difficult compared to others but who knows how that will pan out.

The team with the hardest fixture in reality last season ended up doing ok, Brisbane.

A few posters complaining here are the same who will be potting Bev or the club if we lose a few. Can't have it both ways.

We are either a genuine challenger next season or we are not. We are we finish top 6 preferably top 4 and re load from there for the finals.

We should be improving with another pre season and games in our developing players and adjustments to our game plan. We don't at least make the top 6, with this fixture or any other, and quite frankly we should be looking at changing the top of our football program

 

[Libbaaaa]

Since the newest stand opened, if you want to get a ticket, you can

Yep you can, still more expensive than your regular general admin and most likely behind on the goals though.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscr...ous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE

Channel 7 running the game these days?

HUN suggesting we - and North - have been punished with tough fixtures for banning Korn...

 

[LondonBulldog]

The fixture is what it is, a fixture.

This far out it looks difficult compared to others but who knows how that will pan out.

The team with the hardest fixture in reality last season ended up doing ok, Brisbane.

A few posters complaining here are the same who will be potting Bev or the club if we lose a few. Can't have it both ways.

We are either a genuine challenger next season or we are not. We are we finish top 6 preferably top 4 and re load from there for the finals.

We should be improving with another pre season and games in our developing players and adjustments to our game plan. We don't at least make the top 6, with this fixture or any other, and quite frankly we should be looking at changing the top of our football program

In normal times I would agree with you Lachy yet at the moment there is a big divide between the bottom 5 or 6 and the rest of the competition. Double ups are so important. For example, a double up against West Coast vs Sydney. West Coast most likely 2 wins, Swans could be 2 loses.

The hardest draw based on double up games in Gold Coast, Bulldogs Hawks. Some of the top 4 play west coast twice, or Dons or North, much easier than us.

 

[Sentinel]

We aren't the home team.

Hawthorn are listed as the home team in Gather Round and then again when we play them later in the year at the MCG.

Once again, the designated home/away team for Gather Round is completely irrelevant other than which team might get to wear their home kit and use the home locker rooms. It's a neutral game.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

In normal times I would agree with you Lachy yet at the moment there is a big divide between the bottom 5 or 6 and the rest of the competition. Double ups are so important. For example, a double up against West Coast vs Sydney. West Coast most likely 2 wins, Swans could be 2 loses.

The hardest draw based on double up games in Gold Coast, Bulldogs Hawks. Some of the top 4 play west coast twice, or Dons or North, much easier than us.

Yeah, and on top of that I'm not sure people realise the benefit of playing your home games against other good teams that turn losses into wins, whereas your away games turn wins into slightly worse wins.

Look at who Gold Coast played once last year, away:
Carlton, Geelong, Port, Saints, West Coast. (plus North once gather round).

Then who they played once, at home: Collingwood, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs.

Other than swapping Sydney for Geelong (and Sydney were 10th anyway), given that it's a perfect 9/9 split it's almost a perfect of getting all good teams that you're roughly as good as getting a home ground advantage, but having an away ground disadvantage for matches you win anyway.

Big changes in win probability and therefore overall wins if you turn a possivle 3 point loss into a 9 point win (with the bell curve around the margin), while also turning a 40 point win into a 28 point because its away.

Suns ultimately beat Collingwood by 6 points, Hawks by 8 and us by 10. They ultimately did lose to Port and Richmond away by narrow margins, but they also only beat Saints and Carlton by 19 points each time too - comfortable wins that were made slightly less comfortable by their away ground disadvantage.

Obviously the margins are fine here. Swap around their Darwin game with us and Saints - they beat Saints either way but lose to us and miss finals.

All of this to say that it's not only unfair we play North, Richmond and West Coast once - it's that we play them at home when we play them once. We don't even get the benefit of "locking up" some of the home ground disadvantage guaranteed in 11 away games by turning a guaranteed win into a guaranteed win by a slightly lesser margin, while also using some of our "guaranteed" home ground advantage we get from 11 home games against our top 4 competitors.

Next year when we play almost all of the top 6 fancies for the flag once (or twice Gather round), it's at their home ground.

When you run the numbers and how it impacts expected wins, while it's only a few points here and there, it adds up. It's like saying losing Bont to injury is bad, but when you run the numbers he's only worth 8-10 points per game in expected margin - the same statistical advantage that home games are worth. It adds up over the course of a season.

 

[Distinctive_]

Fixture is a fixture, last year GC and Adelaide were in the bottom 6 grouping so you never really know how easy/hard fixture is until you have hindsight.


Expect Dees will drop off even more without Petracca and Oliver. No guarantees on Swans and Adelaide living to their expectations either. If we are good enough we should have no excuses

 

[The Inbetweener]

Yeah, and on top of that I'm not sure people realise the benefit of playing your home games against other good teams that turn losses into wins, whereas your away games turn wins into slightly worse wins.

Look at who Gold Coast played once last year, away:
Carlton, Geelong, Port, Saints, West Coast. (plus North once gather round).

Then who they played once, at home: Collingwood, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs.

Other than swapping Sydney for Geelong (and Sydney were 10th anyway), given that it's a perfect 9/9 split it's almost a perfect of getting all good teams that you're roughly as good as getting a home ground advantage, but having an away ground disadvantage for matches you win anyway.

Big changes in win probability and therefore overall wins if you turn a possivle 3 point loss into a 9 point win (with the bell curve around the margin), while also turning a 40 point win into a 28 point because its away.

Suns ultimately beat Collingwood by 6 points, Hawks by 8 and us by 10. They ultimately did lose to Port and Richmond away by narrow margins, but they also only beat Saints and Carlton by 19 points each time too - comfortable wins that were made slightly less comfortable by their away ground disadvantage.

Obviously the margins are fine here. Swap around their Darwin game with us and Saints - they beat Saints either way but lose to us and miss finals.

All of this to say that it's not only unfair we play North, Richmond and West Coast once - it's that we play them at home when we play them once. We don't even get the benefit of "locking up" some of the home ground disadvantage guaranteed in 11 away games by turning a guaranteed win into a guaranteed win by a slightly lesser margin, while also using some of our "guaranteed" home ground advantage we get from 11 home games against our top 4 competitors.

Next year when we play almost all of the top 6 fancies for the flag once (or twice Gather round), it's at their home ground.

When you run the numbers and how it impacts expected wins, while it's only a few points here and there, it adds up. It's like saying losing Bont to injury is bad, but when you run the numbers he's only worth 8-10 points per game in expected margin - the same statistical advantage that home games are worth. It adds up over the course of a season.

Great analysis. Copping Brisbane, Cats and Suns all at their home is a massive disadvantage. We probably have a 30% chance in those games. Playing them at Marvel and it’s at least 50/50.

 

[Testekill]

Yeah, and on top of that I'm not sure people realise the benefit of playing your home games against other good teams that turn losses into wins, whereas your away games turn wins into slightly worse wins.

Look at who Gold Coast played once last year, away:
Carlton, Geelong, Port, Saints, West Coast. (plus North once gather round).

Then who they played once, at home: Collingwood, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs.

Other than swapping Sydney for Geelong (and Sydney were 10th anyway), given that it's a perfect 9/9 split it's almost a perfect of getting all good teams that you're roughly as good as getting a home ground advantage, but having an away ground disadvantage for matches you win anyway.

Big changes in win probability and therefore overall wins if you turn a possivle 3 point loss into a 9 point win (with the bell curve around the margin), while also turning a 40 point win into a 28 point because its away.

Suns ultimately beat Collingwood by 6 points, Hawks by 8 and us by 10. They ultimately did lose to Port and Richmond away by narrow margins, but they also only beat Saints and Carlton by 19 points each time too - comfortable wins that were made slightly less comfortable by their away ground disadvantage.

Obviously the margins are fine here. Swap around their Darwin game with us and Saints - they beat Saints either way but lose to us and miss finals.

All of this to say that it's not only unfair we play North, Richmond and West Coast once - it's that we play them at home when we play them once. We don't even get the benefit of "locking up" some of the home ground disadvantage guaranteed in 11 away games by turning a guaranteed win into a guaranteed win by a slightly lesser margin, while also using some of our "guaranteed" home ground advantage we get from 11 home games against our top 4 competitors.

Next year when we play almost all of the top 6 fancies for the flag once (or twice Gather round), it's at their home ground.

When you run the numbers and how it impacts expected wins, while it's only a few points here and there, it adds up. It's like saying losing Bont to injury is bad, but when you run the numbers he's only worth 8-10 points per game in expected margin - the same statistical advantage that home games are worth. It adds up over the course of a season.

It's why it's utter horseshit when the AFL says that Geelong has the hardest draw. They have one of the most blatant home town advantages which lets them lock in a guaranteed 10 wins a year at minimum.

 

[Shacf501]

I get peoples views, however, it is what it is...if you can't beat good sides during the season you don't deserve to play finals anyway.

Bring on 2026, let's stop sooking, aim to beat good times twice if we play them!

 

[Libbaaaa]

Fixture is a fixture, last year GC and Adelaide were in the bottom 6 grouping so you never really know how easy/hard fixture is until you have hindsight.


Expect Dees will drop off even more without Petracca and Oliver. No guarantees on Swans and Adelaide living to their expectations either. If we are good enough we should have no excuses

Melbourne are completely cooked so playing them twice is a gimmie. Of our other double ups Adelaide have done even less than us to improve so shouldn't fear them at all, similarly Carlton without Curnow makes them an even more enticing opponent.

It's why it's utter horseshit when the AFL says that Geelong has the hardest draw. They have one of the most blatant home grown advantages which lets them lock in a guaranteed 10 wins a year at minimum.

To be fair they have lost 3 games in each of the past 3 seasons at home (sorry only 2 last year). It isn't the fortress it once was and they play the Crows, us, Dockers, Swans, Suns, and Lions there next year.

I get peoples views, however, it is what it is...if you can't beat good sides during the season you don't deserve to play finals anyway.

Bring on 2026, let's stop sooking, aim to beat good times twice if we play them!

Here, here. I look forward to the games we have against good sides as it is the true barometer for whether we are any good. Deep down we all knew last year we knew we weren't a legit threat despite spanking all the teams below us.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I get peoples views, however, it is what it is...if you can't beat good sides during the season you don't deserve to play finals anyway.

Bring on 2026, let's stop sooking, aim to beat good times twice if we play them!

I get this logic but there's an argument that we were clearly one of the best 8 teams last year and yet people sooked when we missed finals.

Fremantle were allowed to by a home game off North... and won that game by 6 points, less than the home ground advantage that they bought.

Fans would have absolutely sooked less if we made finals even though nothing about how we as a team performed across the season, because we would have made finals if things were fair (you know, like, not letting a team literally buy an advantage. That's what we have a salary cap for. Giving Fremantle $300,000 extra in salary cap room across the season would have given them less of an advantage that buying another home game).

 

[Shacf501]

I get this logic but there's an argument that we were clearly one of the best 8 teams last year and yet people sooked when we missed finals.

Fremantle were allowed to by a home game off North... and won that game by 6 points, less than the home ground advantage that they bought.

Fans would have absolutely sooked less if we made finals even though nothing about how we as a team performed across the season, because we would have made finals if things were fair (you know, like, not letting a team literally buy an advantage. That's what we have a salary cap for. Giving Fremantle $300,000 extra in salary cap room across the season would have given them less of an advantage that buying another home game).

Knowing us, even if we played North, Richmond and the eagles twice we would probably drop some of those anyway!!

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

‘Crunch month’ start puts Dogs, Beveridge in early-season hot seat

‘Crunch month’ start puts Dogs, Beveridge in early-season hot seat

todayspaper.theaustralian.com.au

 

[BallaratBulldog]

0 5 day breaks at least