Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Johnny Bananas]

That’s a shame. If that’s the case then how did it become the preferred option for the Lions temporary home ground during the proposed Gabba redevelopment?

Was it a case of the government announcing the Showgrounds and then later discovering that it wasn’t feasible?

Oh it's feasible with a reconstruction, it just required $150 million (probably in part due to the heritage protection on the stands) and the state government was only willing to contribute $50 million. They expected the AFL and Cricket Australia to cough up $100 million together to turn it into a temporary home. Both bodies told the government to bugger off. So yes the government made the announcement prematurely.

I'm sure the cost has gone up since then, and I haven't seen anything to suggest the Olympic upgrade will make it AFL-compatible. Until there's confirmation of it, I remain doubtful it will be.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's important to keep in mind that we're talking about a decision that will likely be made in 5 years from now when the broadcasting rights deal ends in 2031.

I would expect the 20th team to be pretty well in train by 2031, if not having already entered.

It'll take three or so years from announcement to inaugural season. If Tasmania enters in 2028, I think it's unlikely the AFL will go six or so seasons with odd teams.

For context, if you had told me in 2003 that the Gold Coast would be approved to enter the league 5 years later then I wouldn't have believed it and we're in a similar situation now to the one we were back in 2003 when the Lions went back-to-back. The flow on effects of Brisbane's triple premiership era really became obvious in the following 5 years when we saw a dramatic increase in junior participation numbers and Queenslanders being drafted into the league (2006 in particular).

We're already seeing big increases in participation numbers, crowds, memberships and Queenslanders getting drafted into the league and I think that's only going to keep growing over the next 5 years because we have two teams based in Queensland that should continue to qualify for the finals each year for the foreseeable future. However, I do think one of the biggest factors here is whether the NRL decides to triple down on the Brisbane market and grant them a third NRL licence in 2030 when they enter a 20th team into their competition. Weekly AFL games in the Brisbane market become crucial at that stage IMO.

There's no doubt the outlook looks good for Queensland footy, but that still doesn't change basic supply and demand.

If we were stuck with 35k-seat Gabba, a second Brisbane side would make a lot of sense for the 20th team.

But you're going to want to give the Lions at least the majority of a decade ensuring they can continue to fill the new 60k-seat stadium before thrusting another team into the market.

I know footy's going great in Queensland, but it just doesn't make sense to add a new team so close to such an extreme jump in capacity. Hopefully the Lions continue to go strong and make a good case for Team 21.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The current ground can't hold an AFL sized field, and I doubt the upgrade will fix that. It would be a good idea otherwise and enable a bid for Gather Round.

That could make it a good AFLW ground though. Better capacity and more central than Springfield. Could make a good finals option.

 

[GC2015]

Does this mean taking academy zones away from the Lions and giving them to the new Brisbane team? I'm not sure the Lions would be happy with that I mean my club was unhappy about losing our Riverina zone.

I'd guess there would be a restribution of zones if it were to happen. The same would occur if Canberra entered the league because it would almost definitely result in the Giants losing zone access to all of the ACT + southern NSW. Does the AFL want to put GWS in that situation? It would significantly weaken the Giants academy as well as their fanbase from Canberra (approx 1/3 of their membership base from memory). No more Tom Greens or Harry Himmelbergs and a potentially a 30ish per cent drop in members. I'm not sure that sounds so appealing for the AFL.

West Coast and/or Fremantle would probably also have their NGA zones changed if a third WA entered the league. No matter where the AFL chooses to base the 20th AFL team, it's going to affect someone's academy zone.

I would expect the 20th team to be pretty well in train by 2031, if not having already entered.

It'll take three or so years from announcement to inaugural season. If Tasmania enters in 2028, I think it's unlikely the AFL will go six or so seasons with odd teams.

Don't the AFL tend to base the timing of these decisions around the broadcasting rights deals? They use it as a negotiating tactic, which is another point to consider. Which market would the broadcasters (DAZN/CH7) be most interested in expanding into out of Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Darwin? Brisbane has the largest population of those four cities and likely the most room for growth IMO.

There's no doubt the outlook looks good for Queensland footy, but that still doesn't change basic supply and demand.

If we were stuck with 35k-seat Gabba, a second Brisbane side would make a lot of sense for the 20th team.

But you're going to want to give the Lions at least the majority of a decade ensuring they can continue to fill the new 60k-seat stadium before thrusting another team into the market.

I know footy's going great in Queensland, but it just doesn't make sense to add a new team so close to such an extreme jump in capacity. Hopefully the Lions continue to go strong and make a good case for Team 21.

If it's based on supply and demand then surely 75k current members for the Lions (it's going to be even higher next year) is an indication that there's significant demand for AFL footy in Brisbane right now. The same can be said about 9 of their 11 home games at the Gabba selling out.

What's the tipping point in terms of supply and demand in the Brisbane market? Realistically, Brisbane are probably going to hit 85-90k members next year and I'm sure they'll continue to sell out most of their home games.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I'd guess there would be a restribution of zones if it were to happen. The same would occur if Canberra entered the league because it would almost definitely result in the Giants losing zone access to all of the ACT + southern NSW. Does the AFL want to put GWS in that situation? It would significantly weaken the Giants academy

Only about a quarter of the Giants academy actually stays with the Giants. The Riverina is too far for them to actually feel connected to the Giants.

But they took away the Albury region back in 2017, if you were splitting up the academy, you'd just give that back to the Giants.

as well as their fanbase from Canberra (approx 1/3 of their membership base from memory).

Poor memory. It hovers around less than a fifth.

And the vast majority of those aren't actually fans, so a Canberra team doesn't actually cut that much of the fanbase away from them.

A potentially a 30ish per cent drop in members.

Completely ignoring the members they'd gain from actually playing 11 games at home. And the value of actually being able to sell 11-game memberships.

Don't the AFL tend to base the timing of these decisions around the broadcasting rights deals?

They'll absolutely factor in the next broadcast deal, but it doesn't mean they'll wait for it.

They use it as a negotiating tactic, which is another point to consider. Which market would the broadcasters (DAZN/CH7) be most interested in expanding into out of Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Darwin? Brisbane has the largest population of those four cities and likely the most room for growth IMO.

All of that would be great, if it weren't for the new stadium. That's the factor you're conveniently missing.

If we were upgrading Optus to 100k, people wouldn't be looking to add a third Perth team at the same time.

If it's based on supply and demand then surely 75k current members for the Lions (it's going to be even higher next year) is an indication that there's significant demand for AFL footy in Brisbane right now. The same can be said about 9 of their 11 home games at the Gabba selling out.

What's the tipping point in terms of supply and demand in the Brisbane market? Realistically, Brisbane are probably going to hit 85-90k members next year and I'm sure they'll continue to sell out most of their home games.

The Lions are flying. They're in back-to-back grand finals, probably a third next year. This has to be factored into how they're looking off-field, too.

Members also don't like-for-like equal seats.

Carlton has 100k, they average 50k crowds (including a bunch of derbies). They Lions will be fine in a 60k stadium.

I want AFL to do well in Queensland, but adding the new team and new stadium at the same time is counting your chickens before they've hatched.

All of what you say is true, if you don't factor in the stadium.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If we were stuck with 35k-seat Gabba, a second Brisbane side would make a lot of sense for the 20th team.

But you're going to want to give the Lions at least the majority of a decade ensuring they can continue to fill the new 60k-seat stadium before thrusting another team into the market.

I mean doesn't this cut both ways though?

There's going to be an afterglow for the olympics and people will be impressed by the facilities on offer by the brand new stadium. People will want to go to as many AFL games as they can.

On the other hand 10 years into it, the stadium is no longer new, and Brisbane as a city will have had the benefit of hosting the Olympics died off - people won't want to go to an AFL game any more simply by virtue of the appeal of the stadium that just hosted the Olympics.

You miss out on an opportunity to have the Olympics benefit the interest in the new team.

 

[Section 5]

Personally, i hope the Tasmania team does not go ahead.
If that happens there is no need for a 20th team. 18 teams are enough anyhow in my opinion.
A big no for a 3rd Brisbane (SEQ) team from me.

A 63k stadium shared by 2 Brisbane teams could easily be a disaster attendance wise.
I doubt the Queensland Government would be as silly as the Tasmanian government and commit to a $1billion + stadium say north of Brisbane when a new stadium is being built for the Olympics. So, it would be shared if it happens.

The Lions would have enough trouble getting near full houses at the new stadium even using their recent successful years as a guide.
We were crap for many years and there is no guarantee we won't fall back into that category by 2033
And what sort of attendance would a new team get in a NRL dominant state.
The Suns first year home crowd average was 10,260 in 2011
14 years later they made the finals for the first time in 2025, and their average home crowd was 15,680

The NRL Broncos have been a very successful team mostly because they are the only Brisbane NRL team. And that's in a Rugby League town.
The Cowboys are that far away it has no bearing on the SEQ NRL teams.
NRL teams on the Gold Coast have come and gone over the years, the newest being Titans (2nd last in 2025) are still struggling.
Titans now have new owners being ex NRL players and i see that ending badly.
Redcliffe entered the NRL in 2023 so the latest SEQ team.
Redcliffe is about 42km from Brisbane CBD. They play the bigger clubs at Suncorp.

Queensland is still a rugby League state with AFL making inroads, and they really only have 1 Brisbane NRL team.
The Broncos average crowd for the 2025 premiers was 41,185 with a capacity of 52,500. It was 39,873 the previous year

Sponsorship is also hard to get in Queensland for AFL unless you are successful.
Adding another sporting team into the mix won't make that any easier

NRL Brisbane: Broncos
NRL South of Brisbane 82km on Gold Coast: Titans
NRL North of Brisbane 42km Redcliffe: Dolphins

AFL Brisbane: Brisbane Lions
AFL South of Brisbane 73km on Gold Coast: Gold Coast Suns
AFL North of Brisbane: No team

 

[Canberra Pear]

I mean doesn't this cut both ways though?

There's going to be an afterglow for the olympics and people will be impressed by the facilities on offer by the brand new stadium. People will want to go to as many AFL games as they can.

On the other hand 10 years into it, the stadium is no longer new, and Brisbane as a city will have had the benefit of hosting the Olympics died off - people won't want to go to an AFL game any more simply by virtue of the appeal of the stadium that just hosted the Olympics.

You miss out on an opportunity to have the Olympics benefit the interest in the new team.

The afterglow will absolutely give a boost. That's what the 25-30k extra seats are for.

Expecting the afterglow to fill three times as many seats is asking a bit much of it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The afterglow will absolutely give a boost. That's what the 25-30k extra seats are for.

Expecting the afterglow to fill three times as many seats is asking a bit much of it.

But they're going to have to fill three times as many seats at some point in the future for a second Brisbane team anyway. You're asking 'of it' the same question in the future in any case.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Personally, i hope the Tasmania team does not go ahead.
If that happens there is no need for a 20th team. 18 teams are enough anyhow in my opinion.
A big no for a 3rd Brisbane (SEQ) team from me.

A 63k stadium shared by 2 Brisbane teams could easily be a disaster attendance wise.
I doubt the Queensland Government would be as silly as the Tasmanian government and commit to a $1billion + stadium say north of Brisbane when a new stadium is being built for the Olympics. So, it would be shared if it happens.

The Lions would have enough trouble getting near full houses at the new stadium even using their recent successful years as a guide.
We were crap for many years and there is no guarantee we won't fall back into that category by 2033
And what sort of attendance would a new team get in a NRL dominant state.
The Suns first year home crowd average was 10,260 in 2011
14 years later they made the finals for the first time in 2025, and their average home crowd was 15,680

The NRL Broncos have been a very successful team mostly because they are the only Brisbane NRL team. And that's in a Rugby League town.
The Cowboys are that far away it has no bearing on the SEQ NRL teams.
NRL teams on the Gold Coast have come and gone over the years, the newest being Titans (2nd last in 2025) are still struggling.
Titans now have new owners being ex NRL players and i see that ending badly.
Redcliffe entered the NRL in 2023 so the latest SEQ team.
Redcliffe is about 42km from Brisbane CBD. They play the bigger clubs at Suncorp.

Queensland is still a rugby League state with AFL making inroads, and they really only have 1 Brisbane NRL team.
The Broncos average crowd for the 2025 premiers was 41,185 with a capacity of 52,500. It was 39,873 the previous year

Sponsorship is also hard to get in Queensland for AFL unless you are successful.
Adding another sporting team into the mix won't make that any easier

NRL Brisbane: Broncos
NRL South of Brisbane 82km on Gold Coast: Titans
NRL North of Brisbane 42km Redcliffe: Dolphins

AFL Brisbane: Brisbane Lions
AFL South of Brisbane 73km on Gold Coast: Gold Coast Suns
AFL North of Brisbane: No team

What is the population and density between Gold Coast and Sydney though? Feel like there is more in that Central coast to Newcastle zone, than North Queensland. When the AFL talk about growing the game in the north, its about NSW and QLD. Surprised all the talk is only of QLD or WA3.

 

[Xtreme]

They'd have to make ANOTHER QLD academy which would piss off other states even more.

I say go for it.

 

[LeBronco]

I'd guess there would be a restribution of zones if it were to happen. The same would occur if Canberra entered the league because it would almost definitely result in the Giants losing zone access to all of the ACT + southern NSW. Does the AFL want to put GWS in that situation? It would significantly weaken the Giants academy as well as their fanbase from Canberra (approx 1/3 of their membership base from memory). No more Tom Greens or Harry Himmelbergs and a potentially a 30ish per cent drop in members. I'm not sure that sounds so appealing for the AFL.

I seriously doubt the AFL would take academy zones off the Suns and give them to a new Brisbane team, after all they want the Suns to succeed at all costs and the fruits of the Suns academies aren't far off from being cherry ripe.

The new Brisbane team would have to be given academy zones from the Lions and I can't see the Lions being happy about that. I'm still annoyed about the AFL taking academy zones off my club so much for growing the game in NSW they'd rather keep Victorians happy.

West Coast and/or Fremantle would probably also have their NGA zones changed if a third WA entered the league. No matter where the AFL chooses to base the 20th AFL team, it's going to affect someone's academy zone.

WA academies are not really comparable to the gold mines that are the Queensland academies. Besides nearly all players from WA have to nominate for the draft and therefore are available to be drafted by any club.

 

[Purple Suit]

I seriously doubt the AFL would take academy zones off the Suns and give them to a new Brisbane team, after all they want the Suns to succeed at all costs and the fruits of the Suns academies aren't far off from being cherry ripe.

The new Brisbane team would have to be given academy zones from the Lions and I can't see the Lions being happy about that. I'm still annoyed about the AFL taking academy zones off my club so much for growing the game in NSW they'd rather keep Victorians happy.

WA academies are not really comparable to the gold mines that are the Queensland academies. Besides nearly all players from WA have to nominate for the draft and therefore are available to be drafted by any club.

That’s because there are different rules. If WA teams had access to all kids in our zones we could do a lot more and there would be more kids drafted from WA. It really is sad that equal opportunity isn’t there for all clubs and kids.

 

[Canberra Pear]

But they're going to have to fill three times as many seats at some point in the future for a second Brisbane team anyway. You're asking 'of it' the same question in the future in any case.

Yeah, some point in the future. When the demand is there.

Demand isn’t going to triple overnight.

You put it in too early - especially as the more embedded, more popular team playing oit of the exact same stadium gets significantly greater capacity - you end up having a team averaging 10k. Which will look sad in a 63k stadium.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

What is the population and density between Gold Coast and Sydney though? Feel like there is more in that Central coast to Newcastle zone, than North Queensland. When the AFL talk about growing the game in the north, its about NSW and QLD. Surprised all the talk is only of QLD or WA3.

Newcastle and Hunter region combine to roughly 1 mil I think. However, its not a wealthy area like a capital city, and there isn't even the slightest chance of a venue being made AFL ready.
Cairns at least has a decent scattering of footy fans, but fer too small apopulation. The AFL is a victim of its own success in some ways. At over 50m a year to run a bare-bones club places like North Queensland, the Hunter, Northern Territory, Bunbury/Busselton region, Tasmania and, yes, Sunshione Coast are simply not viable from a commercial standpoint.

 

[hampton]

If the game keeps growing at its current trajectory in qld the late 2030s make sense for a 2nd Brisbane team.

Dependencies for a 2nd Brisbane team for mine would be:
Lions averaging 45k+
Suns averaging 20k+
Tv viewership of afl games in Brisbane 100k+ regularly
25% increase in elite players from qld pathways

I think this is doable by 2038.

 

[Canberra Pear]

If the game keeps growing at its current trajectory in qld the late 2030s make sense for a 2nd Brisbane team.

Dependencies for a 2nd Brisbane team for mine would be:
Lions averaging 45k+
Suns averaging 20k+
Tv viewership of afl games in Brisbane 100k+ regularly
25% increase in elite players from qld pathways

I think this is doable by 2038.

You'd want the Lions to be averaging more than 45k before adding a second team. That's barely 70% capacity.

You don't want to add a team while there's still another 18k seats available for the Lions every fortnight.

 

[hampton]

You'd want the Lions to be averaging more than 45k before adding a second team. That's barely 70% capacity.

You don't want to add a team while there's still another 18k seats available for the Lions every fortnight.

I dunno I think a 45k average would be plenty. A 50k+ average would take a long time. Though I think by 2038 it could be more like 47/48k average for the lions. They should average 42-44k immediately upon moving to the new stadium in 2032/33

At 45k I’d expect a 5-8k hit in averages with a second team brought in. So maybe a 38k average for the lions and a 15-20k average for Bris2 in its first years.

I think the qld market is too hot for the afl to wait 2 more decades to bring in the next qld team.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I dunno I think a 45k average would be plenty. A 50k+ average would take a long time.

At 45k I’d expect a 5-8k hit in averages with a second team brought in. So maybe a 38k average for the lions and a 15-20k average for Bris2 in its first years.

I think the qld market is too hot for the afl to wait 2 more decades to bring in the next qld team.

The Queensland market is too hot, but 50k+ would take a long time?

45k is plenty, but not an impetus for expansion.

If both teams can collectively fit their crowds in the same stadium, there's not a need for a second team.

 

[Purple Suit]

I dunno I think a 45k average would be plenty. A 50k+ average would take a long time. Though I think by 2038 it could be more like 47/48k average for the lions. They should average 42-44k immediately upon moving to the new stadium in 2032/33

At 45k I’d expect a 5-8k hit in averages with a second team brought in. So maybe a 38k average for the lions and a 15-20k average for Bris2 in its first years.

I think the qld market is too hot for the afl to wait 2 more decades to bring in the next qld team.

WA is already ready averaging 45k & 42k which is 3rd & 5th in the league. WC also had the worse AFL season on record and sell out the stadium so the money is basically 60k worth.

Why would you possibly want QLD3 over WA3? Both current QLD teams have plenty of capacity coming up and if we’re waiting 10 years we will have run out of all spare tickets in WA.

 

[hampton]

WA is already ready averaging 45k & 42k which is 3rd & 5th in the league. WC also had the worse AFL season on record and sell out the stadium so the money is basically 60k worth.

Why would you possibly want QLD3 over WA3? Both current QLD teams have plenty of capacity coming up and if we’re waiting 10 years we will have run out of all spare tickets in WA.

I do think WA3 makes more sense than QLD2 as team 20, I was more thinking for team 21.

 

[oak79]

I do think WA3 makes more sense than QLD2 as team 20, I was more thinking for team 21.

WA3 makes more sense than anything if they continue to expand.

But I'd rather see less teams, consolidate Victoria back to more reasonable number for a national comp.

20 teams dilutes talent even further, further compromises fixture, plus makes the chance of winning a premiership even lower. I'd expect to see more teams with 60+ year droughts.

I'd be working towards 16 teams if I was running the show.

 

[loco3]

WA is already ready averaging 45k & 42k which is 3rd & 5th in the league. WC also had the worse AFL season on record and sell out the stadium so the money is basically 60k worth.

Why would you possibly want QLD3 over WA3? Both current QLD teams have plenty of capacity coming up and if we’re waiting 10 years we will have run out of all spare tickets in WA.

The comparison should be Perth 3 vs Brisbane 2. It’s wild to think that you’d go to 3 teams in Perth and settle at 1 in Brisbane, which is projected for approximately 4 million people by 2050.

A single team cannot service a city that big. And I’m not talking about attendances number. 2 teams allows for better grassroots engagement and tv viewership across the city. It’s difficult for the Lions (who are located in the southern suburbs) to speak to the growing northern part of Brisbane.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Perth and Brisbane are both big cities that could eventually accommodate another team.

No need to debate who comes in first. Just compromise and bring them in together as Teams 21 and 22.

 

[NorthernBastard]

22 teams would be a massive stretch of talent

You'd need to chop of some dead woof - maybe Saints and North could make way