Analysis 2026 - The Way Forward

[Kiama Chris]

We went for the best available FF in Curnow. Bingo.
We went for an experienced KPD. Albeit VFL experienced. Bingo.
Also
Bringing in two experienced small forwards in Cootee and Rosas. Bingo.
suggests to me that we are putting the cream on top of the cake.

We have built almost everything else.
We are contending.

The rest of the draft picks are for the future mainly. We keep on keeping on contending.

I still like that, perhaps fortuitously, our draft picks COULD end up:
Kyle: Athletic hybrid midfielder
King: Athletic medium forward/mid
Philippou: hard nut midfielder
Cootee: Dangerous anywhere between wing and small forward and a possible mid.
Chamberlain: precise marking wing/HHF
Hetherton: KPF
Kyle could be a medium defender which would be OK.
We have four tall defenders yet to be proven at AFL level so I don't think another one (beyond who we have) was a priority in the draft.
We have improved our depth in areas of need. Maybe not the top of the draft that everyone loves but lots of upside in all of them.
So who of the draftees debuts first and when? I think a few had money on Cootee but his hip may have dragged him back to the pack. Philippou?

 

[RubbaDuck]

Surely Serong & Snell push him out of the line up

I can't see Rampe being pushed out easily. He may have lost a touch of speed but he reads the game so well and he gels those around him. He's a wily old scragger with a brilliant footy brain - except for his goal post climb.

 

[S120]

I can't see Rampe being pushed out easily. He may have lost a touch of speed but he reads the game so well and he gels those around him. He's a wily old scragger with a brilliant footy brain - except for his goal post climb.

I strongly agree with this. I think it’s undoubtedly best for the side in the long and short term for someone to convincingly push him out - imo it’s most likely to be Serong - but having watched him for so long I think we all know he will not give up his spot without a fight and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him play a lot this year. Same with Lloyd and Cunningham.

For the sake of our side long term but also in 2026, we need enough competition to be pushing these guys out, but they are true professionals who have lasted this long by using everything at their disposal and will use the competition (and I’m sure the move to the rookie list in the case of Rampe and Lloyd) to motivate themselves for one last crack at it. “You sent me to the rookie list and kept Paddy Snell on the seniors list? I’ll show you” sort of stuff. Not personal but using anything to get themselves up.

 

[Arrr]

If you would treat every player like this we would have a draftee as a captain.
You need to settle down.
Watch the Swans in the top 4 this year.

Mills in the midfield.
Egg on your face.

I would absolutely love to see a healthy Mills in the midfield. I think that's been one of the things we have been missing in there, a two way player who can take control and stem the bleeding when we lose momentum.
I love Rowbottom, he's my favourite player but he just isn't a two way player, he's the one who has been picking up the slack for the other more attacking minded players. He needs help, and the midfield needs balance. Mills fits that role perfectly.

The only problem with this is that we still haven't replaced McCartin (the Paddy variety). Mills has been trying to plug that hole but he's not really that player either. This is the season we really need someone to step up. Serong, Edwards, Snell, heck even if MacDonald ends up back there I don't really care. They just need to get Tom and Melican some help back there.

 

[bedford]

It's sad

 

[The Blue Max]

I would absolutely love to see a healthy Mills in the midfield. I think that's been one of the things we have been missing in there, a two way player who can take control and stem the bleeding when we lose momentum.
I love Rowbottom, he's my favourite player but he just isn't a two way player, he's the one who has been picking up the slack for the other more attacking minded players. He needs help, and the midfield needs balance. Mills fits that role perfectly.

The only problem with this is that we still haven't replaced McCartin (the Paddy variety). Mills has been trying to plug that hole but he's not really that player either. This is the season we really need someone to step up. Serong, Edwards, Snell, heck even if MacDonald ends up back there I don't really care. They just need to get Tom and Melican some help back there.

Good point. The game hasn’t changed so much you can run an undersized backline.

Ramps can’t cover the talls anymore - it’s why Francis and Hamling have been filling the gap.

Neither showed they are up to it, sadly.

We still have a serious hole back there - our recruits MAY starburst - but I worry about our resilience - Oldies and Repats.

 

[dosser]

Good point. The game hasn’t changed so much you can run an undersized backline.

Ramps can’t cover the talls anymore - it’s why Francis and Hamling have been filling the gap.

Neither showed they are up to it, sadly.

We still have a serious hole back there - our recruits MAY starburst - but I worry about our resilience - Oldies and Repats.

Hamling has been an adequate replacement without being a star.

 

[RubbaDuck]

I strongly agree with this. I think it’s undoubtedly best for the side in the long and short term for someone to convincingly push him out - imo it’s most likely to be Serong - but having watched him for so long I think we all know he will not give up his spot without a fight and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him play a lot this year. Same with Lloyd and Cunningham.

For the sake of our side long term but also in 2026, we need enough competition to be pushing these guys out, but they are true professionals who have lasted this long by using everything at their disposal and will use the competition (and I’m sure the move to the rookie list in the case of Rampe and Lloyd) to motivate themselves for one last crack at it. “You sent me to the rookie list and kept Paddy Snell on the seniors list? I’ll show you” sort of stuff. Not personal but using anything to get themselves up.

You're right, of course.

We need to make it clear to all of our players that any spot if up for grabs, if they can better an incumbent player (or players) they should feel confident to put up their hand for a senior game.

An older but experienced list is not so much of a risk if there are genuine understudies ready to step into a role. The "overnight miracles" that Geelong seem to unearth every year are mostly just very good players waiting behind someone better. Some of them have had to wait a long time but those understudies allow them to manage older stars. It gives them true depth across virtually every position.

In both 2022 and 2024 our lack of depth came to bite us in finals. We risked playing Sam Reid because we didn't have anyone ready to step into his role. McDonald was a huge loss to our 2024GF team, as was Mills.

Last year's run of injuries presented countless opportunities for our less experienced players to show their abilities, push their claims or at the very least, to grab some experience and confidence at senior level.

Injuries aside, the VFL is the development arena for young or returning players who need game time, experience or just to work on their craft. So our VFL team and development coaching must align with the gameplan of the senior team to offer a clear pathway to seniors.

The best teams are bloody hard to crack into, but the challenge to get there will probably do more for a player's career than, say, getting a few easy games at Norf.

Serong could turn out to be a bloody wonderful pickup, but we won't know until he genuinely earns a spot in the seniors

 

[Callipygian]

Good point. The game hasn’t changed so much you can run an undersized backline.

Ramps can’t cover the talls anymore - it’s why Francis and Hamling have been filling the gap.

Neither showed they are up to it, sadly.

We still have a serious hole back there - our recruits MAY starburst - but I worry about our resilience - Oldies and Repats.

It could be that Tom can be Paddy's replacement provided Will Edwards could step up to fill Tom's shoes. Will hasn't debuted so we don't know how close or far off he is, but Keane has tipped him for a big year. He has the body to play seniors. Hopefully Will gets to play a fair bit with Rampe and/or Hamling next to him (whether at AFL or VFL level) and mentoring him in the role so he can really accelerate his development this year.

 

[Callipygian]

I think this is exactly what the club has had in mind before Will's injuries. To take place as Rampe exits stage left. Not to take Rampe's place per se but to rebalance. Serong adds another possibility.

I think Serong is more similar to Snell (and hence they could be in competition with each other, at least to start off with before they can both win senior spots). Edwards however is a proper KPD who will have to deal with the really tall KPFs. He is competing for the roles filled by Melican and McCartin currently. McCartin is a little bit more versatile, like Paddy but sadly not quite in Paddy's league as an interceptor.

Thanks to a helpful reminder, I just realised we should probably take this discussion somewhere else. Maybe a mod could help us move this chat?

 

[Kiama Chris]

I think Serong is more similar to Snell (and hence they could be in competition with each other, at least to start off with before they can both win senior spots). Edwards however is a proper KPD who will have to deal with the really tall KPFs. He is competing for the roles filled by Melican and McCartin currently. McCartin is a little bit more versatile, like Paddy but sadly not quite in Paddy's league as an interceptor.

Thanks to a helpful reminder, I just realised we should probably take this discussion somewhere else. Maybe a mod could help us move this chat?

Perhaps to The Way Forward?
Problem is when someone does an interesting post you can't resist.

 

[Nuggetz]

I think Serong is more similar to Snell (and hence they could be in competition with each other, at least to start off with before they can both win senior spots). Edwards however is a proper KPD who will have to deal with the really tall KPFs. He is competing for the roles filled by Melican and McCartin currently. McCartin is a little bit more versatile, like Paddy but sadly not quite in Paddy's league as an interceptor.

Thanks to a helpful reminder, I just realised we should probably take this discussion somewhere else. Maybe a mod could help us move this chat?

Paddy had good kicking skills while Tom is shocking. No point intercepting if you're going to turn it over. I honestly think we should free up blakey to be that interceptor. He's got elite speed, great leap, height & elite kicking skills. I hated seeing blakey as a key defender.

 

[dosser]

Paddy had good kicking skills while Tom is shocking. No point intercepting if you're going to turn it over. I honestly think we should free up blakey to be that interceptor. He's got elite speed, great leap, height & elite kicking skills. I hated seeing blakey as a key defender.

Tom is a better mark than Blakey, hence more suited to interceptor, however I can see your argument.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Picking up from Callipygian post in media thread I think we have:
Tall Defenders:
McCartin, Melican, Edwards, Snell and now Serong. How we use them is the thing. McCartin is probably the only one who could fill an interceptor role (Serong?) so then who gets to be the second lockdown beside Melican? It was Rampe when Paddy did the role but he should no longer be considered a tall. Out of those Serong probably has the best pedigree but Edwards the best body. Maybe Serong starts.
Small Defenders:
Wicks, Cunningham easy and play both as they can cover reasonable sized mediums as well.
Medium Defenders:
Rampe, Serong? Snell? Bice, Roberts.
This is a puzzle. Do we start with Rampe? Serong? Bice? Probably not Snell yet. Somewhat depends on what we do with the talls. Personally at some stage I'd like it to be Serong and Bice (for his exit value) but Rampe has still got a lot of value.
I feel as if I can see next year more clearly than this:
McCartin
Melican Edwards
Serong Bice Kyle
Wicks
Back up Snell, Andrew, Roberts, Cunningham maybe even Rampe.

 

[The Blue Max]

It could be that Tom can be Paddy's replacement provided Will Edwards could step up to fill Tom's shoes. Will hasn't debuted so we don't know how close or far off he is, but Keane has tipped him for a big year. He has the body to play seniors. Hopefully Will gets to play a fair bit with Rampe and/or Hamling next to him (whether at AFL or VFL level) and mentoring him in the role so he can really accelerate his development this year.

Edwards is one of the possible starbursts I mentioned.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Tom is a better mark than Blakey, hence more suited to interceptor, however I can see your argument.

The interceptor doesn't have to be a great kick, just good enough to hit the next target. Tom is good enough. He's solid at ground level too.

 

[Nuggetz]

Tom is a better mark than Blakey, hence more suited to interceptor, however I can see your argument.

That's fair, 1000x better contested mark but I hope the interceptor role means we don't have that player taking contested marks, or being in a position where that occurs often. You could argue that Tom has better judgment than Blakey too which is important for the interceptor role.

I'm of the mindset the interceptor player has to have good kicking skills to launch quick transition. Intercept then transition quickly while oppo defence isn't set, that's my idea anyway. I get worried when Tom kicks lol. I thought Paddy had the perfect skillset for that role.

 

[Kiama Chris]

That's fair, 1000x better contested mark but I hope the interceptor role means we don't have that player taking contested marks, or being in a position where that occurs often. You could argue that Tom has better judgment than Blakey too which is important for the interceptor role.

I'm of the mindset the interceptor player has to have good kicking skills to launch quick transition. Intercept then transition quickly while oppo defence isn't set, that's my idea anyway. I get worried when Tom kicks lol. I thought Paddy had the perfect skillset for that role.

He did but beggars can't be choosers. Tom is the best we have. If we give him good outlets and simple decisions he'll be fine.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Picking up from Callipygian post in media thread I think we have:
Tall Defenders:
McCartin, Melican, Edwards, Snell and now Serong. How we use them is the thing. McCartin is probably the only one who could fill an interceptor role (Serong?) so then who gets to be the second lockdown beside Melican? It was Rampe when Paddy did the role but he should no longer be considered a tall. Out of those Serong probably has the best pedigree but Edwards the best body. Maybe Serong starts.
Small Defenders:
Wicks, Cunningham easy and play both as they can cover reasonable sized mediums as well.
Medium Defenders:
Rampe, Serong? Snell? Bice, Roberts.
This is a puzzle. Do we start with Rampe? Serong? Bice? Probably not Snell yet. Somewhat depends on what we do with the talls. Personally at some stage I'd like it to be Serong and Bice (for his exit value) but Rampe has still got a lot of value.
I feel as if I can see next year more clearly than this:
McCartin
Melican Edwards
Serong Bice Kyle
Wicks
Back up Snell, Andrew, Roberts, Cunningham maybe even Rampe.

Holy gumnuts, I can't see for looking. Looks like I've traded Blakey! Instead of Bice or Kyle.

 

[Bandicoot]

It would be close, but I have 2014 up there for raw talent.

Franklin, Goodes, Hannebery, Smith, Richards, Grundy, Jack, Kennedy, Jetta, McVeigh, Parker, Tippet and Malceski were all AA quality players still at that point in time (Maybe Goodes had dropped a little).

In hindsight was a massive opportunity lost.

Hawthorn felt the same about 2012.

 

[Bandicoot]

I actually think 2014 we lost to a generational Hawthorn side.

2016 was the one we botched.

Fair to say there were three others who had a fair say in that too.

 

[Bandicoot]

Been doing more of that dangerous thinking stuff. How will having 23 vs 22 change how teams operate? Theoretically, average ToG should drop from 80.9% (sub plays one quarter) to 78.3%. Not huge but needs to be managed.
At all times we need 6 defenders (600% ToG) which is 7.66 players. If we just use 7 they average 85.7%. IMO there's a good case there for one or two players to drop back from their main roles (say a midfielder and a winger, not at the same time) to keep the average ToG down around 80%. Pretty sure McInerney and Lloyd have done this. Mills could. Others? Kyle in the future? Of course it won't be as neat as that but something like.
So we must carry a third winger who can drop back (Lloyd) or replace McInerney (?).
Similarly in the forwards. Always 6 means the same as above but now you have Heeney, Warner, Sheldrick and Rowbottom. Forget Jordon, whatever the team sheet says as he has just one job. Depends who he is tagging. Let's imagine it's a mid.
So 6 forwards at all times but only 6 picked means we need 130% topped up by say 4 mids. Possible. Add in 40% from the second ruck and it's a doddle.
So team composition:
Defenders 7
Rucks 2
Wings 3
Tagger 1
Midfielders 4 (5)
Forwards 6 (5)
Almost certainly one of those forwards will be an extra midfielder.
So, will your forwards be 3 talls and 2 smalls or 2 talls and 3 smalls, though the additional midfielder is most likely a small?
Hopefully the logic holds but I'm sure I'll be told if it doesn't.

I believe that the gun players will still have the same ToG as they had in 2025. The likes of Heeney, Warner, Blakey etc will spend no more time on the bench when having a break than in the past meaning the fringe players will spend less time on the ground.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I believe that the gun players will still have the same ToG as they had in 2025. The likes of Heeney, Warner, Blakey etc will spend no more time on the bench when having a break than in the past meaning the fringe players will spend less time on the ground.

It will be very interesting to see how it pans out.
rustycrate pointed out that generally the talls at either end had higher ToG than the midfielders some of whom got into the 60s, and then you have players like Gulden who like to have high ToG.
For one I would like to see Grundy getting significant relief rather than running at 85%. Early last season he was 70-75%, then his minutes increased.
Without an increase in rotations it will mean longer bench stints for some.

 

[Bandicoot]

It will be very interesting to see how it pans out.
rustycrate pointed out that generally the talls at either end had higher ToG than the midfielders some of whom got into the 60s, and then you have players like Gulden who like to have high ToG.
For one I would like to see Grundy getting significant relief rather than running at 85%. Early last season he was 70-75%, then his minutes increased.
Without an increase in rotations it will mean longer bench stints for some.

That is most certainly true however it won't be our guns, such as Heeney & co, who have the longer bench stints.

 

[Kiama Chris]

That is most certainly true however it won't be our guns, such as Heeney & co, who have the longer bench stints.

Probably, but I think the medicos might have a say in that.