AFL 2017 - AFL Round 19

[free at last]

what if Melbourne kick with the wind first quarter?

Good chance it'll being blowing a gale too.

 

[mookieb]

Good chance it'll being blowing a gale too.

Might keep a close eye on this and bet just before the game. There has been some significant wind advantages in some games ie NM vs Melb last year at Blundstone. It's funny because it was my home ground when I played in Tassie many years ago and don't remember lining up from 55m out with a gale at my back...

If there is a 4 goal wind to one end i'll be betting on both teams for sure.

For the record this is the forecast which does look like it will be:

Areas of morning frost. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

 

[free at last]

Might keep a close eye on this and bet just before the game. There has been some significant wind advantages in some games ie NM vs Melb last year at Blundstone. It's funny because it was my home ground when I played in Tassie many years ago and don't remember lining up from 55m out with a gale at my back...

If there is a 4 goal wind to one end i'll be betting on both teams for sure.

For the record this is the forecast which does look like it will be:

Areas of morning frost. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

I'm going to have the bet ready on both north & Melbourne on different books(speed things up a bit)..If the breeze is really strong I'll bet the team kicking with the breeze.

 

[Spacedog]

Does betfair do first goal scorer? Is it released when teams come out!

 

[hedgedhog]

mega confused by this, why would someone off shore be better at modelling AFL than an Aussie and why would having only pinnacle have any affect on their ability to shape the market?
the market prior to game day is sadly Pinnacle, whatever happens there the market will follow. rightly or wrongly, anyone can move a pinnacle line.

it maybe a mug market but opening lines have shown they are just as good at predicting outcomes as closing lines.

It has nothing to do with being able to model AFL better, it's about having the capital and access to AUS accounts whether it be through bowlers or what not. Being offshore and funding AUS bowler accounts is probably something best not dealt with.

Also the market prior to game day is obviously Pinnacle because no one is able to get anything decent done on any other book. I'd be damned if anyone could get more than 5k on a line at Sportsbet, TAB, CB or bet365 before Friday night unless you're a known losing whale. Why would any of those books move a line if they're getting almost equal action on a mug line? Sooner or later though it will get to a point where the line at Pinnacle and there is midde-able or arbable.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Surely a 9 game multi of all the favorites seems a pretty good bet. Don't see to many upsets in that

 

[DylanR]

Surely a 9 game multi of all the favorites seems a pretty good bet. Don't see to many upsets in that

A 9 game multi is never a good bet

 

[EBUS]

Surely a 9 game multi of all the favorites seems a pretty good bet. Don't see to many upsets in that

Has this season taught you nothing?

 

[X_box_X]

Surely a 9 game multi of all the favorites seems a pretty good bet. Don't see to many upsets in that

******* LOL

You cannot be serious.

How is a 9 game multi a good bet? Are you getting +EV on all nine legs?

How can you be confident of no upsets occurring? Have you followed any footy this season?

 

[Sabbathen]

It has nothing to do with being able to model AFL better, it's about having the capital and access to AUS accounts whether it be through bowlers or what not. Being offshore and funding AUS bowler accounts is probably something best not dealt with.

Also the market prior to game day is obviously Pinnacle because no one is able to get anything decent done on any other book. I'd be damned if anyone could get more than 5k on a line at Sportsbet, TAB, CB or bet365 before Friday night unless you're a known losing whale. Why would any of those books move a line if they're getting almost equal action on a mug line? Sooner or later though it will get to a point where the line at Pinnacle and there is midde-able or arbable.

It would be nice if I had the sort of disposable income to do this, but if you walk into a tab on a Friday what sort of bet size would they accept? And couldn't you go down the road to the next tab or pub tab and do it again and again? The other question is you always see these bookmakers advertising they took a bet for $20,000 on such and such, is this just a marketing strategy or are they regularly taking bets this big because you see it every weekend.

 

[Rocky Straight]

It would be nice if I had the sort of disposable income to do this, but if you walk into a tab on a Friday what sort of bet size would they accept? And couldn't you go down the road to the next tab or pub tab and do it again and again? The other question is you always see these bookmakers advertising they took a bet for $20,000 on such and such, is this just a marketing strategy or are they regularly taking bets this big because you see it every weekend.

They need to make money somehow, a large portion would be from these sort of accounts down millions, they'd happily bet them whatever they want. I doubt any are making bets up.

 

[Rocky Straight]

It has nothing to do with being able to model AFL better, it's about having the capital and access to AUS accounts whether it be through bowlers or what not. Being offshore and funding AUS bowler accounts is probably something best not dealt with.

Also the market prior to game day is obviously Pinnacle because no one is able to get anything decent done on any other book. I'd be damned if anyone could get more than 5k on a line at Sportsbet, TAB, CB or bet365 before Friday night unless you're a known losing whale. Why would any of those books move a line if they're getting almost equal action on a mug line? Sooner or later though it will get to a point where the line at Pinnacle and there is midde-able or arbable.

You aren't making much sense.


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[Sausage Legs]

$2U bet on Roos to beat melbourne

could be a quick payout if they kick with the wind in the first quarter and get 24 points up

worth a go IMO

Just not sure if Kangas winning is in their best interests.

 

[free at last]

Just not sure if Kangas winning is in their best interests.

Demons will break the curse this weekend imo.

 

[wizzard400]

Surely a 9 game multi of all the favorites seems a pretty good bet. Don't see to many upsets in that

Gold Coast aren't as bad at home as what people think. I can see Gold Coast beating Richmond if they come to play. They've beaten both Geelong and West Coast there, and 3 out of their 4 losses at home this season have been by 15 points or less.

 

[targett]

Gold Coast aren't as bad at home as what people think. I can see Gold Coast beating Richmond if they come to play. They've beaten both Geelong and West Coast there, and 3 out of their 4 losses at home this season have been by 15 points or less.

Injury cursed Suns.With May,Thompson and Leslie under injury clouds its a very under manned, under sized , and inexperienced backline.Ablett 50/50.Would like to see teams first but at this stage the HGA will not save the Suns here.

 

[X_box_X]

I encourage anyone and everyone to get on the Bombers this week.

The 2016 premiers are having a premiership hangover. It's really happening.

Much like the Bombers inserted the final dagger into the hearts of the 2009 Hawks' premiership defence, the Bombers will insert the final dagger into the hearts of the 2017 Bulldogs' premiership defence.

It's going to happen and I welcome everyone to join the festivities of a Western Bulldogs choke.

 

[mookieb]

I encourage anyone and everyone to get on the Bombers this week.

The 2016 premiers are having a premiership hangover. It's really happening.

Much like the Bombers inserted the final dagger into the hearts of the 2009 Hawks' premiership defence, the Bombers will insert the final dagger into the hearts of the 2017 Bulldogs' premiership defence.

It's going to happen and I welcome everyone to join the festivities of a Western Bulldogs choke.

Agree. WB form has been horrid running into 2 wins (Carlton with multiple injuries) and GC away (without Ablett and key defenders). I see no real indication that their form has changed against quality opposition.

Ess on the other hand could well have been 5 wins from 6 if they hadn't butchered the last 5 mins against Syd. Complete polar opposites in form.

 

[hedgedhog]

It would be nice if I had the sort of disposable income to do this, but if you walk into a tab on a Friday what sort of bet size would they accept? And couldn't you go down the road to the next tab or pub tab and do it again and again? The other question is you always see these bookmakers advertising they took a bet for $20,000 on such and such, is this just a marketing strategy or are they regularly taking bets this big because you see it every weekend.

If you are a winning bettor it may come down to you being ID banned from all TAB. Large bets are real and agree with Rocky Straight that probably from large losing whales. Also a few of the advertised bets will be right before games where bookies are happy to larger amounts anyway.

 

[Spacedog]

When the fantasy markets come out on crownbet get in and around these:

Sloane under
Levi Greenwood under

They'll tag each other out of it. Greenwood will be at around 65 but will score low 50s if they list him. Dunno what theyll do with sloane but id expect them to put him around 95. Hopefully they actually list them because its free money.

 

[HumanMeatball]

A 9 game multi is never a good bet

Went for the 7 Instead. Dees and swans game to risky

 

[X_box_X]

Went for the 7 Instead. Dees and swans game to risky

Why, man? Why??

 

[HumanMeatball]

Why, man? Why??

It will get up

 

[Sabbathen]

Ablett in Riewoldt out and the line has shifted significantly towards GC's favour.

 

[freebloke]

I got on St Kilda on the margin of +30.5. I think that's a pretty good bet.

Port kicked 2 goals in a half last week. And I am guessing at worst a close win to Port (expecting a close win to saints) which makes the line bet quite attractive.