Preview RND 1 - Carlton v Richmond - Thursday 21st March 7:20PM @ MCG - Team Post #1412

[thylacine60]

Preview piece completed. It ain't perfect and it took a bit of time, but I am satisfied. It may still have a few changes along the way, but that depends on what happens from here onward.

GO BLUES!!!

sets the bar pretty high......

 

[Soapy V]

I like Plow as a defender and have not seen him at training as you have. One thing (albeit minute) is his big, looping hand passes that seem to take forever for him to get his hand to the ball and the ball to the man. Is it just me seeing that or am I dreaming?

Just reiterating that I am a fan of Plow and I struggle to split he and Marchbank as far as team structure goes. With our improved depth can we play both in the same team? I’m not so sure we can as JW and Jones are mainstays for mine. Plow is the 3rd tall variable. Is fighting JSOS, Marchy and once he is back from injury Willo for a spot in our defensive squad.

Agree. I like Plow but he is 25 this year and has played 73 games. This is the time to start standing up. Last week I thought he was good but average yesterday. Big year for him. He is the type we need to step up now

 

[Soapy V]

Just reiterating that I am a fan of Plow and I struggle to split he and Marchbank as far as team structure goes. With our improved depth can we play both in the same team? I’m not so sure we can as JW and Jones are mainstays for mine. Plow is the 3rd tall variable. Is fighting JSOS, Marchy and once he is back from injury Willo for a spot in our defensive squad.

and Macreadie Schumacher & Goddard. Players will need to earn their spots

 

[VainGlorious]

McGovern will play. Even though he has showed very little in the 2 JLT games, I think a tall forward line stretches the Tigers.

Setterfield classy enough to play without peak match fitness and Kreuz should be given time to build into the season through the VFL.

Fasolo needs at least a handful of games in the VFL to prove he is worthy.

I like what McGovern brings to the forward line. I must say he is quicker and more agile than I thought he would be. Be interesting to see him at 100%

 

[cookie monster]

Polson OUT
JSos IN

Jack on a HFF and add him to the midfield rotation.

McGovern stays. Big body who's a big game player gets to show his wares.

 

[bigm386]

I see our forward line as being

HF Cuningham - C Curnow - Polson

F Gibbons - McKay - McGovern

In all honesty I would consider Kerr over the current McGovern, I really rate Kerr and liked what he showed in patches last year. McGovern is running around at 70% at best. Would even consider Levi over McGovern which would leave McKay forward and let Levi take the overflow ruck work. I just struggle to see how we justify a round 1 spot for McGovern with his JLT performances and fitness base seeming very wanting at the moment.

Polson for me gives something that very few players on or list can bring and that is forward pressure. Gibbons keeps his spot for me off game in JLT 2 but I have faith. Fasolo would be the only question mark but honestly he needed game time to get a round 1 gig in the JLT. A bit odd he didn't get a run.....

Midfield I see as

Walsh - SPS - Dow

(Fol) Kruzer - Cripps - Fish

Pretty self explanatory I don't think Kennedy will be fit and to be honest I saw Kruze down at the beach I don't think he is injured, just resting.

Defence:

HB Simpson - Weiters - Thomas

B Garlett - Jones - Plowman

Probably our most stable line at the moment, to me Garlett is showing he can do the role and needs time. Stupid to call for his head unless Willo is ready to go. Only other player would be LOB but to me he is more of a Winger. Plowman would make way for Marchy for me but he isn't ready either.

Interchange:

Setterfield - Murphy - E Curnow - Newman

JLT 1 Setterfield showed why he plays every week body permitting. Murphy to me is going to really struggle to fit into the best 22, I know people don't agree which is fine. E Curnow needs to play midfield.

Personally I would lose someone for JSOS but think it is very unlikely to happen. The reason JSOS comes in for me is he can play more as a utility also, could be a matchup for some of Richmond medium size stronger bodies for example Caddy. Plowman would likely make way for me for JSOS to come in.

 

[CJMB]

I'm thinking something like this:

FB: Plowman, Jones, Simpson
HB: Thomas, Weitering, Newman
C: Murphy, Setterfield, Walsh
HF: Cuningham, Curnow, Fisher
FF: Fasolo, McKay, McGovern
FOL: Phillips, Cripps, Petrevski-Seton
INT: Curnow, Dow, Garlett, Silvagni
EMG: Gibbons, Polson, O'Brien, Lobbe/Casboult/De Koning

(Not sure if Fasolo or Jack get the call up from the NBs, if not then it's probably Gibbons & Polson who play, also understand they're not like-for-like replacements)

If that were the case, these would be our 12 changes from round 23 last year:

Rowe > Jones
Byrne > Newman
Mullett > Setterfield
Lamb > Garlett
Wright > Fasolo
Kerridge > Cuningham
Marchbank > Plowman
O'Brien > Walsh
Lang > Dow
Polson > Fisher
Lobbe > Phillips
De Koning > McGovern

With potential additions through the course of the season including Kreuzer, Marchbank, Kennedy, O'Brien, Williamson, Macreadie, Lang, Kerr, etc

 

[Iamcarlton]

Polson OUT
JSos IN

Jack on a HFF and add him to the midfield rotation.

McGovern stays. Big body who's a big game player gets to show his wares.

So you want the 3 talls and Jack on a flank could we make it any easier for Richmond to exit our forwardline unopposed ?
If Mcgovern stays for Rd1 clearly means we are playing favourites over fitness and form .

 

[raymagoo]

Would love to see Simpson on a wing - he looked so good with ball in hand and in some space - his kicking from a running wing position is a real weapon.

Think his one on one defence is too good to miss. So good in tight yesterday

 

[bigm386]

Polson OUT
JSos IN

Jack on a HFF and add him to the midfield rotation.

McGovern stays. Big body who's a big game player gets to show his wares.

McGovern is 100% a big body at the moment. That is half the problem

 

[Soapy V]

Bring it on!

Think we will be extremely competitive in this game(year), anything can happen

Yep. Going to be ups and downs but nowhere near like last year. Still important to get games into younger players but a stronger VFL side will really help. Will surprise a few sides. Want to see continued growth of younger players and improving cohesion of the group

 

[bigm386]

Yep. Going to be ups and downs but nowhere near like last year. Still important to get games into younger players but a stronger VFL side will really help. Will surprise a few sides. Want to see continued growth of younger players and improving cohesion of the group

Feeling the same way honestly if we can finish 10-12 I will be happy after last year!

 

[RAPPA]

I like Polson’s pressure but he is far too sloppy at the moment. Reminds me of Mendoza from Mighty Ducks 2 - has all the speed but can’t control it. He needs to balance his speed with effective disposal of the ball.

We are not going to get the luck like yesterday where he was brilliant in winning the ball but kicked a scrubber straight to Moore who fumbled it and by chance it rolled to Charlie who strolled in to the open goal.

Work on your craft son and then you’ll be knocking the door down for selection

 

[Soapy V]

Feeling the same way honestly if we can finish 10-12 I will be happy after last year!

That would be amazing. A few surprise wins, no thrashings and a percentage above 85 is a big step forward IMO

 

[bigm386]

I like Polson’s pressure but he is far too sloppy at the moment. Reminds me of Mendoza from Mighty Ducks 2 - has all the speed but can’t control it. He needs to balance his speed with effective disposal of the ball.

We are not going to get the luck like yesterday where he was brilliant in winning the ball but kicked a scrubber straight to Moore who fumbled it and by chance it rolled to Charlie who strolled in to the open goal.

Work on your craft son and then you’ll be knocking the door down for selection

I laughed out loud when you mentioned Mendoza!!!!

 

[JustaBattler]

Collingwood's midfield group will be a formidable outfit - they are well drilled play in combination and give each other options for disposal - I was impressed by their running game more than their keepings off game. The big question for Collingwood will be their ability to stop better developed forward lines - their defensive structure is not as convincing as their midfield and their forward line structure built around a very tall target is probably not as scary as some other sides can put together.

Richmond wont present the midfield challenge that Collingwood did in the practice match but their defensive structure is I think a class above Collingwood and their forward line capability based on speed and smarts will challenge Carlton much more than Collingwood or EssenDone did in JLT. We dont know who will be fit to play for Richmond yet so Carlton is unlikely to face the best on paper side Richmond can put out.

I think the best half of football played by Carlton in a while was the first half against Richmond in last season's opener and this was because Carlton dominated center bounce and contested possession during this time- depriving Richmond of first use and putting them on the back foot with forward momentum - capped off by amazing kicking from Charlie a surprising entry from Cripps and some favourable 50 meter penalties.

It was obvious that this was driven largely by Kreuzer/Kennedy/Cripps/Ed literally forcing Richmond to play a physical contested game. As soon as Kreuzer and Kennedy went down it was game over as Richmond started winning clearances and contested ball and their superior levels of fitness combined with more rotations saw an exhausted Carlton side overrun through lack of possession.

This year we already know that the average level of fitness at Carlton has improved markedly - this is a great positive - removing aflood of 'red time' goals each quarter is worth 4-5 goals a game to Carlton.

That said Carlton will be going into this match with a less than best (on paper) on ball contingent. Cripps probably wont have the bigger bodied Kreuzer and Kennedy to get support and instead will have a much improved SPS and a second year Dow as his main on ball support- weak in comparison to Richmond. Add Setterfield, Fisher and Walsh to on ball rotations and all you get is another two smaller bodied kids and a bigger bloke who cant run for 4 quarters ( yet) - mismatched against Richmond's potential on ball brigade.

The bright spot for Carlton in 2019 V 2018 is the theoretical difference that McGovern/Harry add to the forward line potential - as well as some indications that Cuningham is finally showing flashes of A grade X factor. I am unconvinced about Gibbons and Polson apart from clear evidence that they are willing if not able runners - the Ed to forward line experiment in JLT robs the on ball brigade of a bigger body and run with player - again not convinced. Charlie is going to get the best defender very week - he better get used to it - some evidence of big headed nuff nuffery from him has emerged in JLT - lazy kicking and ineffective running - Carlton can't afford for him to waste himself. Charlie has to learn to make himself a decoy abnd make space for McGovern and Harry - until later in quarters when opposition might tire - and then use his superior aerobic capacity - like all real champion do. I think Fasolo is an absolute MUST inclusion for Carlton in forward line - he is a clear class above all of Polson/Gibbons and Cuningham - however he is one of those who might not be yet fit enough to play 4 quarters - add Kennedy/Setterfield/Kreuzer/Marchbank/Lang etc to the list...

Down back Weitering and Jones are looking fit and definitely AFL standard in terms of movement and size - I was impressed with Weitering's lateral movement against Collingwood - he actually ran away from opponents a few times- very pleasing. Much as Jones can disappoint - I am a big fan of his presence on field and his ability to take a contested rather than an intercepted (easy) mark. Carlton's weakness is the lack of ability to use overlapping run to exit a blocked up defensive press - that was on display for all to see yesterday against Collingwood and previously against Essendone. What Newman adds in terms of ability to cover mids and smalls - Carlton loses in the absence of Docherty /Byrne types who have the ability to run away from opponents. I think Bolton has got it right with Garlett back there for his creative ability - but he will need time to settle and looks flaky with ball in hand a 50/50 capability has to grow into 80/20 as far as execution goes - and quickly. Notice I am ignoring Thomas ( no disrespect ) and Simpson ( better on a wing ) as rebound kicks or runners - they are underlining the spots that need to be covered in future.

Plowman is criticized by many - but to me the standout disappointment as far as positive indications go from expected on field leaders - has been Murphy in JLT. Murph has to take his team mates more seriously - his tendency to call for the ball on every occasion irrespective of whether he is in an advantaged position is getting tiresome - for opposition he is predictable. His execution by hand and foot is way below AFL standards for a running link man and playmaker - Walsh is already in my books the more dangerous wing man.

I say this because for Carlton to win games - individual exceptional effort and execution is going to be as important as team play, as team play and game style is still in early days development phase - continuity and purpose whilst boring is the most important KPI to be met in 2019.

In simple terms Cripps/Charlie/SPS/Murphy have to perform at very high levels in order to give a little bit of space time and room for Fisher/Walsh/Dow/Cuningham to contribute here and there at high levels. Carlton has to learn how to score a bit more easily - just a tad and put the opposition into some doubt. I guess that is why Bolton is emphasizing the importance of forward pressure.

Richmond will 'look' smoother/faster and do things easier in this game - it will take a fair bit of magic to get a win irrespective of their outs - but anything can happen if Carlton's key players have a day out an the bounce of the ball favours Carlton more than not.

 

[footyfan1978]

Team for round one way from set in my mind. Even Setterfield that done some nice things I still wonder whether has match fitness for such an intense rise from practice matches to real thing. Challange is no VFL games to get him match fit for first few rounds. Mitch McGovern doing nothing to convince me he should be a lock. Garlett not sold on down back, need a stiffer backline. Jones is enough random iffy stuff for mine in back six. Two of them always worry me. Newman a lock, Walsh a lock, ruck situation a matter of if Kruezer ready. more than happy if he not, Phillips plays. Cuningham a lock. Gibbons and Polson likely but not locks. Jack Silvagni and Lochie O'Brien very much in mix but not playing yesterday shows they borderline depending on horses for courses.
did not see Kerr get a run yesterday which frustrated considering I thought someone said he named. McGovern would want to do more on track in coming weeks to keep Jack Silvagni or Kerr out. Marchbank and Kennedy sound like bodies won't be ready in opening round or two.


Simpson
Jones
Plowman
Newman
Wetering
Thomas seem most likely back six

Midfield assume Cripps, Petreski-Seton and Murphy
Walsh and Fisher starting wings.

Ruckman -Kreuzer if fit to go or Phillips

Forward Six seems Cuningham, Harry McKay, Ed Curnow, Charlie Curnow plus two more from Gibbons, Polson, McGovern, Silvagni

Dow bench starter for midfield rotations and probably Garlett starts on bench and option for forward or back in their coaching minds.
Which probably leaves me thinking all the guys named as options for starting forward six probably get nod.

Lochie O'Brien, Fasolo, Setterfield and Phillips emergencies.

 

[HaydossJ]

McGovern will play round one, and should.

This is JLT - he gained match fitness, and continued working alongside H and Charlie. The increase in synergy was obvious in the last quarter.

He's done everything that's been required.

 

[cookie monster]

So you want the 3 talls and Jack on a flank could we make it any easier for Richmond to exit our forwardline unopposed ?
If Mcgovern stays for Rd1 clearly means we are playing favourites over fitness and form .

Jack Silvagni and his 13 tackles on Saturday, say hi

 

[Blue__Balls]

Garlett gives us something we don’t have a lot of. Can make something happen from nothing, but given the way he plays some of it can be heart in mouth. He’s definitely in my round 1 team.

Being completely honest - I don't see that.

He's a fairly straight line player, has a nice turn of speed without being exceptional, decent jump, OK hands, generally pretty good by foot.

And I know he's relatively inexperienced due to his injury history, but there are first year players who I think have shown more creativity and X-factor. Daniel Rioli, Higgins, Stephenson, Papley - those are young players who I see as being able to create something from nothing. With a deft little knock-on, or a soccer kick, or a shimmy, or a spin - they can turn a contested situation against a more experienced player into a goal they have absolutely no right to kick.

Like Garlett, like what he does add to the side. But there's a fair distance between what he does and what some of the real excitement machines can do.

High on my wishlist for next year - find a young player with silly levels of confidence who brings some flair to the side, in particular our forward line.

 

[bigm386]

Jack Silvagni and his 13 tackles on Saturday, say hi

The thing that drives me absolutely nuts is he plays VFL as a midfielder and does well. The 13 tackles are a result of position as well as effort. Then he gets a run in the AFL as a forward pocket.....

Frustrating

 

[Blue__Balls]

Collingwood's midfield group will be a formidable outfit - they are well drilled play in combination and give each other options for disposal - I was impressed by their running game more than their keepings off game. The big question for Collingwood will be their ability to stop better developed forward lines - their defensive structure is not as convincing as their midfield and their forward line structure built around a very tall target is probably not as scary as some other sides can put together.

Richmond wont present the midfield challenge that Collingwood did in the practice match but their defensive structure is I think a class above Collingwood and their forward line capability based on speed and smarts will challenge Carlton much more than Collingwood or EssenDone did in JLT. We dont know who will be fit to play for Richmond yet so Carlton is unlikely to face the best on paper side Richmond can put out.

I think the best half of football played by Carlton in a while was the first half against Richmond in last season's opener and this was because Carlton dominated center bounce and contested possession during this time- depriving Richmond of first use and putting them on the back foot with forward momentum - capped off by amazing kicking from Charlie a surprising entry from Cripps and some favourable 50 meter penalties.

It was obvious that this was driven largely by Kreuzer/Kennedy/Cripps/Ed literally forcing Richmond to play a physical contested game. As soon as Kreuzer and Kennedy went down it was game over as Richmond started winning clearances and contested ball and their superior levels of fitness combined with more rotations saw an exhausted Carlton side overrun through lack of possession.

This year we already know that the average level of fitness at Carlton has improved markedly - this is a great positive - removing aflood of 'red time' goals each quarter is worth 4-5 goals a game to Carlton.

That said Carlton will be going into this match with a less than best (on paper) on ball contingent. Cripps probably wont have the bigger bodied Kreuzer and Kennedy to get support and instead will have a much improved SPS and a second year Dow as his main on ball support- weak in comparison to Richmond. Add Setterfield, Fisher and Walsh to on ball rotations and all you get is another two smaller bodied kids and a bigger bloke who cant run for 4 quarters ( yet) - mismatched against Richmond's potential on ball brigade.

The bright spot for Carlton in 2019 V 2018 is the theoretical difference that McGovern/Harry add to the forward line potential - as well as some indications that Cuningham is finally showing flashes of A grade X factor. I am unconvinced about Gibbons and Polson apart from clear evidence that they are willing if not able runners - the Ed to forward line experiment in JLT robs the on ball brigade of a bigger body and run with player - again not convinced. Charlie is going to get the best defender very week - he better get used to it - some evidence of big headed nuff nuffery from him has emerged in JLT - lazy kicking and ineffective running - Carlton can't afford for him to waste himself. Charlie has to learn to make himself a decoy abnd make space for McGovern and Harry - until later in quarters when opposition might tire - and then use his superior aerobic capacity - like all real champion do. I think Fasolo is an absolute MUST inclusion for Carlton in forward line - he is a clear class above all of Polson/Gibbons and Cuningham - however he is one of those who might not be yet fit enough to play 4 quarters - add Kennedy/Setterfield/Kreuzer/Marchbank/Lang etc to the list...

Down back Weitering and Jones are looking fit and definitely AFL standard in terms of movement and size - I was impressed with Weitering's lateral movement against Collingwood - he actually ran away from opponents a few times- very pleasing. Much as Jones can disappoint - I am a big fan of his presence on field and his ability to take a contested rather than an intercepted (easy) mark. Carlton's weakness is the lack of ability to use overlapping run to exit a blocked up defensive press - that was on display for all to see yesterday against Collingwood and previously against Essendone. What Newman adds in terms of ability to cover mids and smalls - Carlton loses in the absence of Docherty /Byrne types who have the ability to run away from opponents. I think Bolton has got it right with Garlett back there for his creative ability - but he will need time to settle and looks flaky with ball in hand a 50/50 capability has to grow into 80/20 as far as execution goes - and quickly. Notice I am ignoring Thomas ( no disrespect ) and Simpson ( better on a wing ) as rebound kicks or runners - they are underlining the spots that need to be covered in future.

Plowman is criticized by many - but to me the standout disappointment as far as positive indications go from expected on field leaders - has been Murphy in JLT. Murph has to take his team mates more seriously - his tendency to call for the ball on every occasion irrespective of whether he is in an advantaged position is getting tiresome - for opposition he is predictable. His execution by hand and foot is way below AFL standards for a running link man and playmaker - Walsh is already in my books the more dangerous wing man.

I say this because for Carlton to win games - individual exceptional effort and execution is going to be as important as team play, as team play and game style is still in early days development phase - continuity and purpose whilst boring is the most important KPI to be met in 2019.

In simple terms Cripps/Charlie/SPS/Murphy have to perform at very high levels in order to give a little bit of space time and room for Fisher/Walsh/Dow/Cuningham to contribute here and there at high levels. Carlton has to learn how to score a bit more easily - just a tad and put the opposition into some doubt. I guess that is why Bolton is emphasizing the importance of forward pressure.

Richmond will 'look' smoother/faster and do things easier in this game - it will take a fair bit of magic to get a win irrespective of their outs - but anything can happen if Carlton's key players have a day out an the bounce of the ball favours Carlton more than not.

Quietly hoping that all our long, high forward 50 entries in the JLT series have been a smokescreen, and come round one it's going to be pinpoint passes to leading forwards.

Not unrealistic is it...?

 

[cookie monster]

The thing that drives me absolutely nuts is he plays VFL as a midfielder and does well. The 13 tackles are a result of position as well as effort. Then he gets a run in the AFL as a forward pocket.....

Frustrating

You and me both. Coaches not helping him at all

 

[Iamcarlton]

Jack Silvagni and his 13 tackles on Saturday, say hi

Think you know as well as i do thats to do with him playing as a mid in RESERVES big tempo difference .
Lets see if he can replicate that as a FF in the seniors .
Richmond would be laughing if they saw a team sheet of 3 talls and Jack in our forwardline .
FYI atm id prefer Jack in on a flank rotating mid than Mcgovern in the side .

 

[Brighton_Diggins]

Fitnes, fitness, fitness. The BIG difference in this game. And this is RD 1 not RD 18. So the young legs will be raring and ready to run all night. IMO our biggest worry is our forward 50 entries. Seem a bit scattered in this department. I'm hoping some eye lowering and decent presentation from the three lads up front. That's been missing from the 2 JLT games for mine. We can win the ball no worries and we've been defending fairly well. I just want to see a bit more space and structure going forward. It's going to be a tough ask no doubt. But if we can run all night, get some luck and see the tall timber showing a bit we may just pinch this one. I actually think we can win.....just. Blues by 4 points in a nail biter.