Preview RND 1 - Carlton v Richmond - Thursday 21st March 7:20PM @ MCG - Team Post #1412

[Love the Drake]

SPS was impressive in both JLT games I watched - because he was a step or two faster into contested and congested areas playing like a genuine mid whilst at the same time maintaining his ability to make quick decisions with disposal to advantage. Walsh actually improved from JLT1 - JLT2 and JLT2 against Collingwood was a much harder workout for all concerned. The other guy who was doing 'little' things in congestion and doing them well was Weitering - impacted contests outside defensive arc on quite a few occasions with deft touches and disposals. Fish was a bit flat in JLT2 - I expect him to lift for round one in more space. Dow has been a tad under rated for his efforts - sometimes he shows clean hands and deft touch but wasn't as consistent as those above. Cuningham's movement in congestion is lightening quick - crossing my fingers we have found a factor X HFF.

For all the criticism that 'fatso' McGovern has copped - he has a way of making his presence 'felt' by opposition - really looking forward to seeing him get better each week - and what a glorious kicking action!.

Not out of this first game by any means - but Richmond will look and play slicker and better drilled and probably score easier if the side falls off in intensity - they have learned how to win - something that has to be on Bolton's agenda in 2019.

They will expect a competitive start from Carlton but they will also 'expect' to run over the side over 4 quarters- that has been their strength.

Agreed re McGovern. Is a solid boy who gets fair momentum when up and about. Will add that bit of hardness we’ve been looking for.
Thought his second half was encouraging. Got to the right spot quite often. Might only be a week or two off finding his touch.
What a bonus if he could find it round 1 in front of 80,000.

 

[juss]

With Respect Juss, the new rule changes certainly levels out the playing field from past seasons.

Do they? How do we know this? We haven't seen anything at all in terms of real games that matter.

Im not sure your back line will hold up against our 3 talls,

Interesting criticism given Richmond have one of the best defensive trios in the league, and best overall defences.
Are there better defensive trios than Rance, Astbury and Grimes, throw in Vlastuin and Broad for support.
Maybe the Eagles? Wouldn't be many others.

I really like Mackay and Curnow for the future, but neither of them are that proven either. If you want to compare forwards, Riewoldt and Lynch (if fit) are still the best two on the ground.

Granted we both have good midfields, and playing Grigg as your back up ruck men won't cut the mustard anymore!!!!

Grigg probably won't be best 22 anymore, he's on the way out. Pretty sure he is injured too.
Carlton's midfield will be great, but apart from Cripps, Richmond have the edge in established proven talent. Martin is still probably the best player out there too.
I'd imagine Balta will play that 2nd ruck/KPF/utility role. Looks promising.

Your run n gun tactics from defence won't stand up this year..

Again how do we know this at all? We have a sample size of 0 AFL season games, and the only JLT games we saw Richmond stormed home to win both.

 

[ParapMarkets]

SPS was impressive in both JLT games I watched - because he was a step or two faster into contested and congested areas playing like a genuine mid whilst at the same time maintaining his ability to make quick decisions with disposal to advantage. Walsh actually improved from JLT1 - JLT2 and JLT2 against Collingwood was a much harder workout for all concerned. The other guy who was doing 'little' things in congestion and doing them well was Weitering - impacted contests outside defensive arc on quite a few occasions with deft touches and disposals. Fish was a bit flat in JLT2 - I expect him to lift for round one in more space. Dow has been a tad under rated for his efforts - sometimes he shows clean hands and deft touch but wasn't as consistent as those above. Cuningham's movement in congestion is lightening quick - crossing my fingers we have found a factor X HFF.

For all the criticism that 'fatso' McGovern has copped - he has a way of making his presence 'felt' by opposition - really looking forward to seeing him get better each week - and what a glorious kicking action!.

Not out of this first game by any means - but Richmond will look and play slicker and better drilled and probably score easier if the side falls off in intensity - they have learned how to win - something that has to be on Bolton's agenda in 2019.

They will expect a competitive start from Carlton but they will also 'expect' to run over the side over 4 quarters- that has been their strength.

“They have learned how to win”, this is spot on and, in my opinion, our biggest obstacle in getting over the line. In both of Richmond’s preseason games they have given up hefty margins in the first half only to overrun Hawthorn and Melbourne. They are just so confident.

The thing that is exciting me is the 3rd and 4th year players are looking primed to step up. Sure, Charlie and Fish have been a bit sketchy in preseason, but I am confident on those 2. If Weitering, SPS, Cuningham, McKay and Setterfield can continue on their trajectory and run out a full 4 quarters we will pose some serious problems for the opposition. Then of course we have Walsh, his game awareness and running ability for a first year player is looking unprecedented.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

At the moment, the biggest difference between ourselves and the Tiggs is age and experience.

JaB hit it on the head, they have learnt how to win football matches, we're still not at that stage....yet. Tiggs got it 100% right in 2017 aligning their game plan with their personnel, which we need to stride for. They had foot soldiers that year, but were given a task, and did what was expected from them....Craig Bellamy does the same thing with the Storm, they're not all A graders, but know what their role is, and execute it...and that is exactly what Bolts and our coaching staff should be emphasising to our players. We're not all going to be a Cripps, or Doc or Charlie....

I anticipate we'll get beaten on Thurs week, but terrified that we'll get blown away. For the first game of the season, that is a massive kick in the guts, and we'll need to spend time to try and crawl our way back up....a huge dent in the confidence.

I'm hoping like hell that we play with the same determination we did during the JLT and practice game against Hawthorn, that's all we can ask....and hopefully eliminate the turnovers, which killed us last year, and again on Sunday in the Woods game.

A win would be against all odds, but would be invaluable in giving the group belief going into the 2019 season. But anything less than total commitment and effort from the 22 should be considered a failure.

 

[Curnivore]

There's a lot of confidence in here, I'm certainly tipping Carlton improvement this season, but I'm not sure there has been enough to close a gap between a team that went 19-5 last year and one that went 2-20 with a percentage of 59.3

That's not disrespectful but I just think realistically it's very hard to justify a tip for Carlton.

I get in a two team game that a team always has a puncher's chance, but I think promoting all the reasons Carlton could win and ignoring all the reasons Richmond should win is a little bit unrealistic. It surely, surely is not based on preseason form?

Is there genuine belief here or just blind hope for a big upset?

Round one is always a bit of a wild card, teams are rusty adjusting to new lineups. It levels the playing field a bit.

 

[Soapy V]

We will win. Will get off to a fast start and they won’t catch us

 

[Blue and Blue]

Tiggs got it 100% right in 2017 aligning their game plan with their personnel, which we need to stride for. They had foot soldiers that year, but were given a task, and did what was expected from them

I really think they had a lot of lucky things happen. Hardwick was gone for all money...had nothing to lose..tried a few new tricks. It worked..... for a time.

 

[Soapy V]

I really think they had a lot of lucky things happen. Hardwick was gone for all money...had nothing to lose..tried a few new tricks. It worked..... for a time.

Yep. He recruited Caracalla

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I really think they had a lot of lucky things happen. Hardwick was gone for all money...had nothing to lose..tried a few new tricks. It worked..... for a time.

One of the 'lucky' things that happened was bringing in new assistant coaches at the start of 2017 like Leppitsch and Caracella to support Hardwick....as well as Balme as GM of footy. Invaluable appointments.
Not sure if it was 'new tricks' rather than getting everything aligned at the club.
We're getting there with the appointments of SOS, Agresta, Lloyd, Russell etc...not sure about our assistant coaches though.

 

[ESKIE]

We will win. Will get off to a fast start and they won’t catch us

**** I hope so

 

[Arr0w]

Tigers stripped back every area of the club, membership, recruiting, drafting, development, then built belief, continuity, cohesion

In the fullness of time

 

[kjr8]

One moment Roos was saying how we expect too much from draffees then the next he was saying SPS had a dissappointing year last year

Yeah haha and followed up with “comes a time when 23-24yo need to stand up” or something to that effect as Charlie was about to take a kick [emoji848]


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

At the moment, the biggest difference between ourselves and the Tiggs is age and experience.

JaB hit it on the head, they have learnt how to win football matches, we're still not at that stage....yet. Tiggs got it 100% right in 2017 aligning their game plan with their personnel, which we need to stride for. They had foot soldiers that year, but were given a task, and did what was expected from them....Craig Bellamy does the same thing with the Storm, they're not all A graders, but know what their role is, and execute it...and that is exactly what Bolts and our coaching staff should be emphasising to our players. We're not all going to be a Cripps, or Doc or Charlie....

I anticipate we'll get beaten on Thurs week, but terrified that we'll get blown away. For the first game of the season, that is a massive kick in the guts, and we'll need to spend time to try and crawl our way back up....a huge dent in the confidence.

I'm hoping like hell that we play with the same determination we did during the JLT and practice game against Hawthorn, that's all we can ask....and hopefully eliminate the turnovers, which killed us last year, and again on Sunday in the Woods game.

A win would be against all odds, but would be invaluable in giving the group belief going into the 2019 season. But anything less than total commitment and effort from the 22 should be considered a failure.

we won't get blown out. Apart from melbourne last year i don't remember many bad performances at the MCG in the bolton era. we'd be a sneaky chance for an upset if richmond weren't out for blood after their choke last year.

the games at marvel are what worry me. Last year we had an average losing margin there of 65 points even though it's our supposed home ground and we only played one finalist there. it's reflective of the lack of running power in the midfield which we're all really hoping is improved by the extra preseason to the group.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Going to be interesting to see the effect of the new rules on different sides based on their recent campaigns.

Often in Formula 1 you get a lag effect between teams when a drastic rule change is introduced. The teams that were vying for the title in the previous season seem to lag in the early part of the following season, as they didn't spend as much time focussing on the next year's rules, as their competitors did. The time they spent focussing on winning the championship the other teams were already testing different aero setups, and doing R&D on new engines, rather than putting the time and money into their current one's.

In the AFL setting, the team that has been focussed on winning premierships in the previous season is Richmond, and the team that has been focussed on the Advent of the new rules, is Carlton.

We have created a team centred around big bodies and key position stocks to win more contested ball and adapt to the 6-6-6 rules. We have three recognised ruckmen, and consistently play with a secondary ruck/forward in excess of 200cm tall and capable of holding his own.

Richmond have a game plan and team that was certainly capable of winning premierships in the last two years, but how is it going to hold up now? This will be the most intriguing part of the first 6 weeks of the season for me, across the competition.

We are definitely capable of coming away with 4 points. We beat one of the best clearance teams in the league, in clearances on Monday, and even had more I50s. The signs are there pointing towards the fact that we will relish this rule change. I just hope we can follow through in the season proper this time

And there you have it … rule changes. The status quo has been unbalanced. Which team will adapt best?

In that simplistic form, I would suggest teams that have:

1. 2x Generals downs back with a shitload of run and gun from the HB line.
2. Big bodied Mids that take advantage of the limitation of players in the centre square.
3. A 3 pronged tall forward line to take adavatage of point 2 … and 3 crumbers.

Reckon we are in with a red hot chance against Bitchmond.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

we won't get blown out. Apart from melbourne last year i don't remember many bad performances at the MCG in the bolton era. we'd be a sneaky chance for an upset if richmond weren't out for blood after their choke last year.

the games at marvel are what worry me. Last year we had an average losing margin there of 65 points even though it's our supposed home ground and we only played one finalist there. it's reflective of the lack of running power in the midfield which we're all really hoping is improved by the extra preseason to the group.

Good point JF90....we've never liked playing at the shit hole at Docklands....even in the 'Juddy era' when we had the 3 amigos running amok...we were always a lot better in the wide spaces of the G.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Do they? How do we know this? We haven't seen anything at all in terms of real games that matter.



Interesting criticism given Richmond have one of the best defensive trios in the league, and best overall defences.
Are there better defensive trios than Rance, Astbury and Grimes, throw in Vlastuin and Broad for support.
Maybe the Eagles? Wouldn't be many others.

I really like Mackay and Curnow for the future, but neither of them are that proven either. If you want to compare forwards, Riewoldt and Lynch (if fit) are still the best two on the ground.


Grigg probably won't be best 22 anymore, he's on the way out. Pretty sure he is injured too.
Carlton's midfield will be great, but apart from Cripps, Richmond have the edge in established proven talent. Martin is still probably the best player out there too.
I'd imagine Balta will play that 2nd ruck/KPF/utility role. Looks promising.


Again how do we know this at all? We have a sample size of 0 AFL season games, and the only JLT games we saw Richmond stormed home to win both.

Bet?

 

[Opine]

This is so true in a standing one on one he is worse than hopeless he will either lose outright or usually gives away a free kick, needs to run and jump to have any chance unfortunately.

Doesn't the 666 enable sides to play forwards deeper thereby allowing a player such as Levi to run and jump at a forward entry from CS bounce?

 

[juss]

Bet?

On what the match?

 

[HyphensBack]

My Round 1 team:
B: Plowman Jones Simpson
HB: Newman Weitering Garlett
C: Walsh Dow SPS
HF: McGovern Charlie Murphy
F: Cuningham McKay Gibbons
Foll: Phillips Cripps Fisher

Int: Silvagni Daisy Ed Setterfield

Emerg: Polson Kennedy O'Brien
Coming back from injury: Kreuzer Marchbank Williamson Pickett

This is a long list of guys who still have to prove themselves (more then I had hoped for)
Plowman - I feel for this guy - someone in the backline is going to be stuck with mismatches having to play tall and small - he will battle all year - will cop a bit from all of us - feel the coaches must take this into consideration
Newman - had a good game and a quiet one - think he will have more good then bad
Garlett - 3 weeks ago I though no chance but without Marcho and Willo I think we have to give him a chance for a few weeks
McGovern - really disappointed he is so under prepared - would prefer to play a midfield/forward like Silvagni or Kennedy if they are 100% and put 3-4 weeks of solid running into McGov - suspect they will play him deep but can he contribute and not be a liability - fear it will be 6 weeks before this happens
Murphy - enough said by others - the season is now here and I am going to back Murph in
Gibbons - 50:50 with Polson - more confident when he has the ball in his hands that he will advantage the Blues
O'Brien - fear that this kid will struggle in the twos but would be handy if given a chance in the Seniors if playing as a wingman but he probably doesn't knock out Walsh, SPS or Murph (??). Might have to play as a flanker??
Daisy - not a big fan due to his lack of line breaking ability, can't knock his effort though so retains his spot
Ed - not sold on the forward role but suspect he will feature in the middle more in season proper, if he plays forward then I suggest Ed probably needs to play more thru the middle when in that role and not get deep forward
Phillips - Game 1 was good, Game 2 so so, prefer a fully fit Kreuz but okay if Phillips starts until Kreuz is right
Silvagni - been pleased with Silvagni building his tank and his rig, I think he should be the utility that takes the bench position - can play forward, back and pinch hit in the middle if an injury
Kennedy - disappointed he has missed JLT opportunities, not sure where he is at
Polson - a guy who has had to learn the craft in the Seniors when he probably should be learning it in the magoos, not confident if he gets the ball that we will be better off, to that end he should work on that at Northern

 

[Thehurdle]

Pickett is 0 chance of playing AFL this season.

Struggled to get a game and was dropped at times last year when we were one of the worst AFL sides fielded in recent history. Wasn't fit then.
Turned up to preseason really unfit.
Got injured and is going through a really long recovery process and will come out of that really really unfit.

Pickett will need to recover, go through rehab and then work on getting himself AFL level fit starting from a fitness base of 0. IMO Pickett will struggle to be fit for round 1 2020 if he doesn't come back early enough this season to training/playing.

We need to rookie list him, give Andrew Russell a crack at him and at getting him properly fit for AFL and see where he ends up and maybe he will be there midway through next season.

Pickett needs to focus on being fit enough for AFL at some stage in 2020 and then keeping that fitness and building on top of that to go to the next level in 2021.

I think some of us are underestimating just how fit you need to be to play AFL and how far back someone like Pickett would be.

Pickett is 0 chance of playing AFL this season.

Struggled to get a game and was dropped at times last year when we were one of the worst AFL sides fielded in recent history. Wasn't fit then.
Turned up to preseason really unfit.
Got injured and is going through a really long recovery process and will come out of that really really unfit.

Pickett will need to recover, go through rehab and then work on getting himself AFL level fit starting from a fitness base of 0. IMO Pickett will struggle to be fit for round 1 2020 if he doesn't come back early enough this season to training/playing.

We need to rookie list him, give Andrew Russell a crack at him and at getting him properly fit for AFL and see where he ends up and maybe he will be there midway through next season.

Pickett needs to focus on being fit enough for AFL at some stage in 2020 and then keeping that fitness and building on top of that to go to the next level in 2021.

I think some of us are underestimating just how fit you need to be to play AFL and how far back someone like Pickett would be.

May be.. let’s see if Mifsud can help. That’s why he’s there. JP is perhaps the 3rd most talented player on the list. You don’t quickly give up on that.

 

[telsor]

Round one is always a bit of a wild card, teams are rusty adjusting to new lineups. It levels the playing field a bit.

This.

Round 4+ when all clubs have settled down and adjusted, you'd think this match would be close to a foregone conclusion (as much as any are), but with the chaos and unknowns of round 1, there is a much greater chance of an upset.

I'd also add that the uncertainty over Richmond's forward line would also be working in your favor. Caddy & Castagna out, Lynch maybe a 50/50 (and never having played for us, so what he'll contribute is a maybe as well) and even Jack being only a probable starter (his Mrs is due around that day). A forward/Ruck contingent of (probably 3 out of) Nankervis, Soldo, Balta & Moore wouldn't exactly strike terror into oppositions, and whatever we do field is unlikely to work as a unit all that well.

That said, the talk in this thread about your forwards dominating seems unlikely to me, given the Richmond back line would be pretty settled has has looked solid enough during the pre season. (basically,the reverse of our forward line issues).

 

[TooBlue14]

We will win. Will get off to a fast start and they won’t catch us

You convinced me.

 

[TooBlue14]

And there you have it … rule changes. The status quo has been unbalanced. Which team will adapt best?

In that simplistic form, I would suggest teams that have:

1. 2x Generals downs back with a shitload of run and gun from the HB line.
2. Big bodied Mids that take advantage of the limitation of players in the centre square.
3. A 3 pronged tall forward line to take adavatage of point 2 … and 3 crumbers.

Reckon we are in with a red hot chance against Premiershipmond.

I give 1.5 out of 3. That probably gives us a chance but I’d say Richmond are a 3/3.

 

[TooBlue14]

This.

Round 4+ when all clubs have settled down and adjusted, you'd think this match would be close to a foregone conclusion (as much as any are), but with the chaos and unknowns of round 1, there is a much greater chance of an upset.

I'd also add that the uncertainty over Richmond's forward line would also be working in your favor. Caddy & Castagna out, Lynch maybe a 50/50 (and never having played for us, so what he'll contribute is a maybe as well) and even Jack being only a probable starter (his Mrs is due around that day). A forward/Ruck contingent of (probably 3 out of) Nankervis, Soldo, Balta & Moore wouldn't exactly strike terror into oppositions, and whatever we do field is unlikely to work as a unit all that well.

That said, the talk in this thread about your forwards dominating seems unlikely to me, given the Richmond back line would be pretty settled has has looked solid enough during the pre season. (basically,the reverse of our forward line issues).

Even when Carlton was smashing your mob round 1 every year and beating you from 9th i never wasted my energy going over to your board to gloat about something you think might happen round 1. Let us enjoy our new improved side and go talk to those in tiger land that are as scared as you are that you may lose. You’ve made excuse after excuse about how your forward line is going. I can tell you we are pretty happy with our forwardline only to add a goal sneak in Fasolo round 1 and have one of the most unpredictable forward set ups in the AFL. Rance can’t stop either Curnow or McKay. He couldn’t stop Weitering. Lol. Curnow kicked a lazy 5 last time. Wright kicked the same. He’s not there this time so expect 6-7 from Fasolo. Lol. McKay is averaging 2 a game since arriving on the scene last year. You e got a backline of interceptors but once we’re jumping on their heads they’ll be second guessing from the first minute. Your half back run came from your intercepts while playing 8-6-4 or 7-7-4 all bloody year. You’re the least prepared for 6-6-6 as you only set up that way a total of 4.3% of the time in 2018. Carlton just had more clearances against arguably the best clearance side in the AFL whereas you just struggled to go past a bunch of kids from hawthorns midfield. We had our third best ruck playing on Grundy and Grundy dominated. Despite this we still had more clearances. Nankervis will look like Caleb Daniel in the ruck as comparison. You’re about to come up against the best clearance player in the AFL in Cripps whose our newly crowned captain. Whereas you have to return Martin to the middle just to get a chance at getting the hall out making your forward line weaker. And don’t get me started on Walsh.

Convinced yet? I bloody well am.

 

[CarlTonLongSleeve]

This.

Round 4+ when all clubs have settled down and adjusted, you'd think this match would be close to a foregone conclusion (as much as any are), but with the chaos and unknowns of round 1, there is a much greater chance of an upset.

I'd also add that the uncertainty over Richmond's forward line would also be working in your favor. Caddy & Castagna out, Lynch maybe a 50/50 (and never having played for us, so what he'll contribute is a maybe as well) and even Jack being only a probable starter (his Mrs is due around that day). A forward/Ruck contingent of (probably 3 out of) Nankervis, Soldo, Balta & Moore wouldn't exactly strike terror into oppositions, and whatever we do field is unlikely to work as a unit all that well.

That said, the talk in this thread about your forwards dominating seems unlikely to me, given the Richmond back line would be pretty settled has has looked solid enough during the pre season. (basically,the reverse of our forward line issues).

It took one American to tear apart tigers backline in their last game of the season last year.. Rance might have to actually play on someone at some stage.
I do like their long sleeve guernseys tho, simple is better. OMG I hope dusty wears a long sleeve.. think it will be hot tho.
Carlton have been competitive in first game of season for quiet a few years now, but have lacked polish and a full 4 quarter effort.. I accept that Richmond are heavy fav, but throwing money on the blue baggers isn’t that stupid.
Whilst I’m talking, how horrendous are the Thor guernseys, but I can’t believe people are putting the m&m carlton guernseys in the same category. I didnt actually mind the m&m guernsey.. They should have made the Carlton logo navy blue...not white...just like Sturt in the sanfl, which I think is the best guernsey in south Australia. Just saying, go blues


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app