Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2020

[Knightmare]

The sadness of that list is why I'm always very skeptical of those KPFs being talked up before they have a fair few runs on the board - even the high profile top 5 draft picks. We've seen a lot of next big things come and go over these new KPF barren years. I hope you're right with Riccardi and most others are right with the Kings and Logan, because a gun KPF is a sight to behold. But I wouldn't be inking any of them in as becoming top line players yet - unless it's in another role, such as Moore and Lukosius in defence.

We've had some unfortunate stories of key forwards particularly early draft. Boyd - mental health. McCartin - concussion (also has diabetes and was picked too early). Patton - injuries and more recently mental health. Schache - was drafted too high and really didn't have the game a pick 2 should have.

We have though since seen a transformation in what key forwards look like and play like. They're taller, but they also have small man capabilities where I'd be as bold as to say a number of them could either play through the midfield or on a wing if you ask them. eg. Balta could go into stoppages and be a beast if you asked him to be. Lukosius could be either used in defence and be the premier kick from defence in the competition or on a wing could be a 200+ mark per year machine who in addition to that creates historic number of scoring opportunities directly from his kick. We really have some entirely unique and new models of what a tall can do which is relatively the component I like about this new generation drafted over the last few years. They're not big, bodied, lumbering types who can't move and were early bloomers. We've really got an incredible diversity and you can draft guys 195cm+ and not even draft them as KPPs. It's been a big change really these past 5 years where I'm seeing a distinct improvement in the calibre of tall talent drafted which we haven't seen in a long time.

What I'm not seeing with this new generation of key forwards on the other hand though is anyone who can be that 70+ goal every year key forward. Maybe a Jamarra or Logan McDonald if they fulfil their upside could get close, but with how defences are today and how key defenders today are by average standard by position greater than they have been during any time in AFL history, it's really hard for key forwards today to be that kind of guy, and really if they can play 20+ games, kick 40+ goals, get your 120+ marks, take 30+ contested marks and bring it to ground enough, you're on a winner and you've really got someone.

Remember the year. 2017. That's the draft where we've seen this transformation in what a KPP is and can be. And it was as an unrelated aside an unbelievable year for key defenders.

 

[Apples]

You have to admit our midfield is no where near good enough Jmac. Losing Treloar and Phillips are significant blows, De Goey is a part time midfielder, Pendlebury and Sidebotton are close to retiring and aren't what they use to be.

We also have a concerning lack of young elite miss coming through that many other teams have. Guys like Sier Rantall Brown Brown have shown very little.

That's pretty dismissive of Scott Pendlebury. Did you see his 2020? If you'd said they were closer to retirement, nobody would argue. Pendles is good for a few more years, and if Sidebottom can get off the beers and show some leadership, he may be good for a few more as well. Sidebottom owes us.

 

[Kappa]

That's pretty dismissive of Scott Pendlebury. Did you see his 2020? If you'd said they were closer to retirement, nobody would argue. Pendles is good for a few more years, and if Sidebottom can get off the beers and show some leadership, he may be good for a few more as well. Sidebottom owes us.

Its easy to say Pendles still has a lot of good footy left, but history says otherwise. He's 33 now and every year is slowing down more and more, still a good player but no where near as damaging as he was at 26.

 

[sr36]

You have to admit our midfield is no where near good enough Jmac. Losing Treloar and Phillips are significant blows, De Goey is a part time midfielder, Pendlebury and Sidebotton are close to retiring and aren't what they use to be.

We also have a concerning lack of young elite miss coming through that many other teams have. Guys like Sier Rantall Brown Brown have shown very little.

We need a bit to go right, but I'm more bullish about our midfield for 2021. Hopefully Adams stays fit - he's become very good. Hopefully Pendles can produce more of the same. Hopefully they play Sidey in the centre square and he can provide more class than Treloar gave us. JDGs time in midfield should be better than what Elliott gave us. Hopefully, Sier comes good and provides us with a quality rotation. Throw in the best bigman around regaining his mojo. A lot of hope, but it's got the potential to be a bloody good group again.

I wouldn't be expecting from the younguns in terms of stoppage in 2021, but who knows what Reef, Macrae, Poulter and Rantall can become over the next few years, so I don't think we can call that group grim/slim pickings yet.

 

[jackcass]

You have to admit our midfield is no where near good enough Jmac. Losing Treloar and Phillips are significant blows, De Goey is a part time midfielder, Pendlebury and Sidebotton are close to retiring and aren't what they use to be.

We also have a concerning lack of young elite miss coming through that many other teams have. Guys like Sier Rantall Brown Brown have shown very little.

Phillips was out of the midfield in 2020. Doubt he was ever getting back in there.

Treloar is a great accumulator, averages about 27 possessions of which 14-15 are handballs. His kicking efficiency though is below 50% and only about 16 of his disposals are considered "effective". Big if but if Sier can recapture his 2018 form and get his numbers up into the 20's then that would offset the loss of Treloar's raw possession numbers given Sier's better disposal efficiency and the closeness of their respective clearance numbers of vastly different TOG%.

I think you're under-selling JDG's midfield potential. Our issue is we don't have 2 of him.

 

[jackcass]

Its easy to say Pendles still has a lot of good footy left, but history says otherwise. He's 33 now and every year is slowing down more and more, still a good player but no where near as damaging as he was at 26.

Yeah, you can see his game waning....

2020 AA squad: Scott Pendlebury, Collingwood
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019 All Australian.
Nominated for squad member also in 2009, 2015, 2016, 2018.
13/17 games in 2020.
323 disposals. 159 kicks, 38 marks, 164 handballs averaging 24.8 disposals, 12.2 kicks, 2.9 marks, 12.6 handballs. 56 Inside 50m. 42 tackles. 59 clearances. 225 effective disposals.

 

[Apex36]

Interesting re Bianco... I like him but wonder if there is a spot for him in defence considering we have simile players in Noble already and now Chugg, who is impressing down back

Hopefully Bianco can learn to play a small half forward role he could deliver it inside 50 with aplomb

Given his foot skills we should be doing all we can to fit him in the lineup

He’s being groomed for the wing according to training reports.

 

[Apex36]

Wasn't he playing predominantly wing-HHF before we drafted him.

Wing/hb/midfield as a junior.

 

[pies 4 ever]

He’s being groomed for the wing according to training reports.

If that's true, I wonder if we are looking to move Daicos forward or into the mids. It would make sense, rather than have 2 small wingers, albeit very good users of the ball.

 

[Apex36]

Thinking we will finish between 6 and 16 is not a very confident prediction.

Who were the 'kids' in the 2010 flag side?

Beams and Sidey would probably be the only ones who were young enough to be classed as kids, they were second years iirc.

 

[Kappa]

Yeah, you can see his game waning....

2020 AA squad: Scott Pendlebury, Collingwood
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019 All Australian.
Nominated for squad member also in 2009, 2015, 2016, 2018.
13/17 games in 2020.
323 disposals. 159 kicks, 38 marks, 164 handballs averaging 24.8 disposals, 12.2 kicks, 2.9 marks, 12.6 handballs. 56 Inside 50m. 42 tackles. 59 clearances. 225 effective disposals.

Ah, you're right. Pendles is not human and will play elite footy till hes 45

Age doesn't matter for elite sportsmen... Right?

 

[TradeDraft]

My view isn't any different.
Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide and Brisbane in some order should be better.

Adelaide and North Melbourne should be clearly worse, I don't like the shape of Essendon's list. They're among the least balanced lists in the competition and with such poor defences don't inspire any confidence in me. Hawthorn with their age demographics don't inspire me with any confidence, so they should be worse also.

Collingwood really fit in with that middle bunch of everyone else the way I'm seeing 2020 going ahead. St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne should be stronger than Collingwood - hence probable outcome is outside top-8. While on the other side of the spectrum, Sydney and Gold Coast you'd hope don't catch up to Collingwood this year.

Which leaves Collingwood in that 9-12 range in some order with GWS, Carlton and Fremantle and on that edge, contending for the top-8 if something goes wrong with one of those other 8, and really pushing their cases, as with Collingwood.

We are Worse off for this Season after the Terrible Trade Period but I think we have made our Medium/Long Term Future lot better with our Very Good Draft.

Could say take a Few Steps Backwards to get Forward.

The Teams around us on the Ladder got Better so they go pass us

 

[sr36]

Yeah, you can see his game waning....

2020 AA squad: Scott Pendlebury, Collingwood
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019 All Australian.
Nominated for squad member also in 2009, 2015, 2016, 2018.
13/17 games in 2020.
323 disposals. 159 kicks, 38 marks, 164 handballs averaging 24.8 disposals, 12.2 kicks, 2.9 marks, 12.6 handballs. 56 Inside 50m. 42 tackles. 59 clearances. 225 effective disposals.

What the hell happened in 2017?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

We are Worse off for this Season after the Terrible Trade Period but I think we have made our Medium/Long Term Future lot better with our Very Good Draft.

Could say take a Few Steps Backwards to get Forward.

The Teams around us on the Ladder got Better so they go pass us

How do we know it is a very good draft? Other clubs did not seem to regard it as highly as us, and let's face facts, we had to regard it highly given the situation we were in because of our poor financial management of the list. We really won't know if our draftees are any good for a year or so. Personally I agree with Knightmare in terms of assessing where we stand in relation to other teams. I doubt that any of our recruits are going to be as talented or productive as Treloar or Stephenson, though I will be more than happy to be proved wrong.

 

[TradeDraft]

How do we know it is a very good draft? Other clubs did not seem to regard it as highly as us, and let's face facts, we had to regard it highly given the situation we were in because of our poor financial management of the list. We really won't know if our draftees are any good for a year or so. Personally I agree with Knightmare in terms of assessing where we stand in relation to other teams. I doubt that any of our recruits are going to be as talented or productive as Treloar or Stephenson, though I will be more than happy to be proved wrong.

Geelong Rated as they also Traded there 1st Round Pick for just 1 Pick and Not 2 and they took a Roughy.

Some Experts say they don't Rate this Draft but they also could be Wrong.

So none will play more then 1 Good Season?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Geelong Rated as they also Traded there 1st Round Pick for just 1 Pick and Not 2 and they took a Roughy.

Some Experts say they don't Rate this Draft but they also could be Wrong.

So none will play more then 1 Good Season?

I am not suggesting our draftees are no good but rather that only time will tell if the players we have drafted are going to be good players. We did not have a top 10 pick so can't expect players of the quality of Treloar or Stephenson who were high draft picks.

 

[Billys Back]

I am not suggesting our draftees are no good but rather that only time will tell if the players we have drafted are going to be good players. We did not have a top 10 pick so can't expect players of the quality of Treloar or Stephenson who were high draft picks.

Run that draft again and Stephenson would be lucky to make top 10. You’re only as good as your last year and Stephensen was nothing short of awful. No injuries, no excuses just putrid. Can you imagine him dishing that up in the remaining years of his inflated contract?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Run that draft again and Stephenson would be lucky to make top 10. You’re only as good as your last year and Stephensen was nothing short of awful. No injuries, no excuses just putrid. Can you imagine him dishing that up in the remaining years of his inflated contract?

I can imagine him dishing up the form he produced in 2018 which was nothing short of brilliant for a first year player.

 

[BEEG]

He’s being groomed for the wing according to training reports.

Does that mean Daicos gets moved to a HFF like Phillips?

 

[Apex36]

Does that mean Daicos gets moved to a HFF like Phillips?

No, it probably means they’re planning for life without Sidey. They’ll end up putting Steele on a HFF eventually to try to prolong his career imo and we’ll need a replacement.

 

[jackcass]

Ah, you're right. Pendles is not human and will play elite footy till hes 45

Age doesn't matter for elite sportsmen... Right?

Yeah, that’s what I said....

 

[jackcass]

What the hell happened in 2017?

Only played 16/22 games.

 

[jackcass]

How do we know it is a very good draft? Other clubs did not seem to regard it as highly as us, and let's face facts, we had to regard it highly given the situation we were in because of our poor financial management of the list. We really won't know if our draftees are any good for a year or so. Personally I agree with Knightmare in terms of assessing where we stand in relation to other teams. I doubt that any of our recruits are going to be as talented or productive as Treloar or Stephenson, though I will be more than happy to be proved wrong.

Did other clubs not rate the draft or just take because of list reductions, existing lists, and targeted recruits?

 

[jackcass]

I am not suggesting our draftees are no good but rather that only time will tell if the players we have drafted are going to be good players. We did not have a top 10 pick so can't expect players of the quality of Treloar or Stephenson who were high draft picks.

At a minimum, hopefully our draftees are better users of a footy by foot than Treloar and Stevo.

 

[Knightmare]

On clubs rating/not rating the draft.

It wasn't a draft that was highly rated and weren't going to pay too much to be involved in. Clubs even aside from list size reductions wanted to minimise involvement and maximise flexibility going forward given there was no Victorian exposure last year, and the odds as overagers a few of these guys will step up and look good this season as midseason draft options.