List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[chrisso crow]

not in the first half v us when the game was in the balance - what a leg up Richmond were given..remember

I've never watched that before, brings up too many bad memories, but whilst some of them were correct decisions, some of them are incredibly bad. Even the commentators noticed them, but the umps..................

We all know how biased BT is towards the Vic teams, but even he called them out on an obvious one not paid to us in the goal square.

And the one's where the guernsey is held/pulled is paid 99 times out of 100, yet we didn't get 2 in the same game!

Anyway, nothing can be done about it now.

 

[Crow till I die]

I've never watched that before, brings up too many bad memories, but whilst some of them were correct decisions, some of them are incredibly bad. Even the commentators noticed them, but the umps..................

We all know how biased BT is towards the Vic teams, but even he called them out on an obvious one not paid to us in the goal square.

And the one's where the guernsey is held/pulled is paid 99 times out of 100, yet we didn't get 2 in the same game!

Anyway, nothing can be done about it now.

Remember the lead up to the grand final. Cotchin and Edwards? both should have been rubbed out from reportable incidents in the prelim but somehow got off. Then it was all about the fairytale of a Richmond flag (forgetting the crows lost Phil Walsh only a year earlier) and that was the entire media narrative. Then from memory 3 x victorian umpires were selected for the match and then that disgraceful first half and as I said, had we had a fair umpiring display, maybe we would have gone in 4 or 5 goals up at half time and then who knows. That is why having the umps in your back pocket like Richmond did helped them win the flag that day. That we fell off the cart in the second half was on us..but to me it is always a huge ? of what might have been had things been umpired fairly that day.

 

[Thetrader15]

Rather than take away the right to match picks for NGAs in the draft, the AFL should have just taken away the 20% discount. You want him, you pay full points value for the pick particularly for the 1st round.

That would be fair enough for identifying and developing a high draft pick.

It seems reasonable that cases such as Borlaise got weeded out from the NGA process - he never should have been an NGA by a quirk of his Egypt birthplace On the contrary, African or Asian migrants/refugees, who are relatively new to game, are what it should be about. Ditto Irish or US try outs and obviously country-based indigenous kids.

I don't know why there's a discount anyway. The benefit they get it being able to match the bid.

 

[Thetrader15]

You can choose to try and dispute the facts and logic with BS red herrings and ignore all the information.
So who won the flag and norm smith medal?
Trying to compare to Greenwood and CEY pick 64 ands a rookie to top end draft picks shows how desperate you are to keep your views and that's your choice. Never let facts get in the way of a good story.

For all the smaller midfielders they are poorly represented on GF day with the Norm Smith and that's highly likely to continue this year.
Interesting GAJ isn't there but 2 of his bigger mates are.

View attachment 1188822

So 1 midfielder over 185cm has won the NS since 2012.

The stats are hardly compelling.

How do Brownlow results look? Probably 50:50.

 

[Sanders]

So 1 midfielder over 185cm has won the NS since 2012.

The stats are hardly compelling.

How do Brownlow results look? Probably 50:50.

Unsurprisingly you’re missing the point.

He’s identified clear & discernible patterns in certain teams drafting approach; whereas there appears no overriding philosophy in ours - which might explain our mixed results

I’m even less fussed about the efficacy of these approaches, more the existence and in turn absence in certain cases

Assuming it’s true, I’m blown away by WB’s taking 21 players in a row over a certain height. That’s unlikely to be accidental

And a far more likely example of a moneyball approach than spurious claims about every recycled, reclamation project.

 

[WeeBlake]

Unsurprisingly you’re missing the point.

He’s identified clear & discernible patterns in certain teams drafting approach; whereas there appears no overriding philosophy in ours - which might explain our mixed results

I’m even less fussed about the efficacy of these approaches, more the existence and in turn absence in certain cases

Assuming it’s true, I’m blown away by WB’s taking 21 players in a row over a certain height. That’s unlikely to be accidental

And a far more likely example of a moneyball approach than spurious claims about every recycled, reclamation project.

I agree it was an interesting post. Especially re cats getting cheap mature agers. But in fairness he said the dogs drafted lots players in a row over an *average* height of 192, which is not really meaningful. One of them could have been Caleb Daniel!

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

We are getting beaten up

We're a small team not just in terms of height. Have some slightly built guys out there

 

[Crow till I die]

for those who may not have seen any of Josh Goater, here is a tid bit. A guy that you would think will be right around the mark of our 1st

 

[Sanders]

I agree it was an interesting post. Especially re cats getting cheap mature agers. But in fairness he said the dogs drafted lots players in a row over an *average* height of 192, which is not really meaningful. One of them could have been Caleb Daniel!

Sure, but an average of 192 *is* pretty high. Certainly over 21 players.

Couldn’t have been including Caleb Daniel though, as he was 2014 draft.

Thing is, which ever pattern you find most interesting, the fact that there are such patterns is the really interesting bit

 

[pjcrows]

for those who may not have seen any of Josh Goater, here is a tid bit. A guy that you would think will be right around the mark of our 1st

Moves like Duursma.

 

[jackster83]

Moves like Duursma.

Are you saying he's going to drop the premiership cup?

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Are you saying he's going to drop the premiership cup?

gravitates towards underage girls?

 

[Grenville]

Sure, but an average of 192 *is* pretty high. Certainly over 21 players.

Couldn’t have been including Caleb Daniel though, as he was 2014 draft.

Thing is, which ever pattern you find most interesting, the fact that there are such patterns is the really interesting bit

Found it interesting also & went digging - came across a new site (new to me anyway) that collates pick history by club so we can replace speculation with data:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/western-bulldogs

The pattern looks overstated, though they did go noticeably tall between 2015-2017. Not going to bother with the aggregation.

Have been wondering if the 4/5 SA picks last year is the start of our pattern, with state of origin moving from talent tie-breaker to some greater weighting in the draft order? Time will tell, but not sure how I feel about that.

 

[DaKids]

Found it interesting also & went digging - came across a new site (new to me anyway) that collates pick history by club so we can replace speculation with data:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/western-bulldogs

The pattern looks overstated, though they did go noticeably tall between 2015-2017. Not going to bother with the aggregation.

Have been wondering if the 4/5 SA picks last year is the start of our pattern, with state of origin moving from talent tie-breaker to some greater weighting in the draft order? Time will tell, but not sure how I feel about that.

I’ve found the possibility it’s a pattern quite interesting too. If the Crows end up with say pick 4 and pluck Matty R, who is a Crows supporter, it will certainly start to look a pattern. List will start looking like a Crows cheer squad.

 

[conVINCEd]

Dogs have gone hard after left footers in recent years, which I assume stems from the Hawks doing similar while Beveridge was there.

They’re stacked with them now.

Macrae, Bont, Hunter, Libba, Crozier, Bruce, Naughton, Keath, Duryea, Ugle-Hagan, Richards, Schache, and just let Suckling go last year.

 

[Jirkago75]

Found it interesting also & went digging - came across a new site (new to me anyway) that collates pick history by club so we can replace speculation with data:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/western-bulldogs

The pattern looks overstated, though they did go noticeably tall between 2015-2017. Not going to bother with the aggregation.

Have been wondering if the 4/5 SA picks last year is the start of our pattern, with state of origin moving from talent tie-breaker to some greater weighting in the draft order? Time will tell, but not sure how I feel about that.

It shows we had quite a few lean years until 2018. For whatever reason, development or poor talent identification. We did nothing in those years before. Also as all have been saying, we haven’t had one star come out for years

 

[Grenville]

It shows we had quite a few lean years until 2018. For whatever reason, development or poor talent identification. We did nothing in those years before. Also as all have been saying, we haven’t had one star come out for years

Couple of years without draft picks and only 3x top 10 picks (7,8,9) in history of the club prior to the last two years makes it pretty hard to produce stars.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Found it interesting also & went digging - came across a new site (new to me anyway) that collates pick history by club so we can replace speculation with data:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/western-bulldogs

The pattern looks overstated, though they did go noticeably tall between 2015-2017. Not going to bother with the aggregation.

Have been wondering if the 4/5 SA picks last year is the start of our pattern, with state of origin moving from talent tie-breaker to some greater weighting in the draft order? Time will tell, but not sure how I feel about that.

Yep I reckon the SA thing is part of the new strategy

Of course only works if there is good SA talent

 

[StonesThrow]

From eDPS

 

[DJ75]

for those who may not have seen any of Josh Goater, here is a tid bit. A guy that you would think will be right around the mark of our 1st

Going to need a haircut. Manbuns are so 2010.

 

[Crow till I die]

Going to need a haircut. Manbuns are so 2010.

Just the sides then he has a 2021 mullet

 

[Scorpus]

Good news everyone.

Key defender Josh Gibcus has moved into the #6 spot in Cal Twomey's rankings.

Prepare yourself

 

[DJ75]

Good news everyone.

Key defender Josh Gibcus has moved into the #6 spot in Cal Twomey's rankings.

Prepare yourself

It's all good. We can trade McAsey and pick 35 to St. Kilda for pick 7. Draft a mid at pick 4, then get Gibcus at pick 7.
Sorted...

{edit} - this is a joke btw.

 

[Betts are off]

for those who may not have seen any of Josh Goater, here is a tid bit. A guy that you would think will be right around the mark of our 1st

Looks highly physically developed for a 18 year old kid. Also has great co-ordination, agility and burst for a kid that size.

Colour me intrigued!

 

[Golumless]

Why do you say that ? ......I can't see any reason Laird and Keays wouldn't play out their careers as Mids

The question ? are on Gollant and O'Connor ....can they step up next year ....O'Connor made some good first steps this year & followed a typical rookies path by getting a couple of games

I can see Jones moving back into the midfield in a couple of years times, and we also have Milera to add into that midfield

I'm normally in the camp of saying clubs take a player type in drafts ......but I do think this year, we'll take the best Mid available, irrespective of attributes

I can see both ending up as part-time midfielders, being the 5th-7th player in the queue getting midfield minutes. That said, I doubt you'd want either as a long term midfield option, getting the lion share of it. Both are ball winners without a genuine point of difference.

Pick 1 to me has to be all about finding the 4th midfielder to the Schoenberg, Berry, and Pedlar rotation. Another inside mid with a point of difference to their game, whether they're a classy ball user or they have explosiveness. Ideally both.

It's highly unlikely Milera will ever be a midfielder seeing he's now missed two years to LTIs. We've firmly entered "get whatever you can out of him" territory. Jones I can see getting another shot as a midfielder in the latter half of next year.

Gollant I have as very likely to step up to AFL football, that kid could be something special. On the other side, I don't see O'Connor making it, but I'd like another preseason in him before I cement myself to that position.