Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Happy to put up Patrick Cripps.

Eagles need at least 1 good player.

Hasn’t played a good final in his life, you can keep him

 

[Daka]

Not sure how strong this draft is assuming it's pretty weak on the top end talent considering Harley Reid is all i keep hearing about...
If i had the number #1 pick, I'm not trading it.

In saying that number #1 picks rarely become the best player of the draft their will be plenty of sleepers/steals in this draft.

 

[naysayer]

Hasn’t played a good final in his life, you can keep him

That's pretty funny.

If WC want Reid they should take him, this flight risk stuff is not worth considering. What is worth considering is that they could use the enormous value of this single pick they hold to get a raft of elite young players, and speed up the process of climbing out of the hole they're in. A Roughead/Franklin/Lewis type draft could be on offer here. That's what I would aim for if I was their list manager: 3 picks in the first round. A deal like Picks 1, 19 to a club in exchange for picks 3, 9 and 17.

 

[The acurate one]

Didn’t you get the 5kg bag of spuds the year earlier in Coleman-Jones?

He actually a decent game against Sydney his first is six years. Crikey

 

[Mostyn]

Reigning Brownlow Medallist .......... hardly "banged up".

He's having a very mediocre year, and has taken a lot of contact.

Last year might just be an outlier.

It would be ridiculous for WCE to take him.

 

[Dockeroo]

Eddie McGuire confirmed tonight they will be picking Reid at number one if they stay last.
Of course they will. These campaigners arent stupid unfortunately

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

The dees will have pick 7-12 (freo) plus 2 very late 1sts outside 15 (2023 and 2024) that goes nowhere near being worth pick 1.

Gc will have pick 7-8ish (and the eagles will want to stay inside 5 imo if they trade down) and no guarantee of a their fr1 being top 5. Sharp adds no value as hes a 4th rounder or psd for wce. Gc arent getting pick 1 unless they add someone like powell to the 2 1sts (which they wont).

North and hawks work because they can give the eagles a pick inside 4 this year as well as a future 1st likely in the top 5. I cant see anyone outside those 2 clubs trading for pick 1.

GC not likely to be trying for Reid here. They will be looking for as much value as possible from their first to help with academy points. Might need to match 3 inside the top 20-25. Will also be interested in moving picks to next year if possible as there are more academy picks coming (at least at this stage)

 

[FB19]

GC not likely to be trying for Reid here. They will be looking for as much value as possible from their first to help with academy points. Might need to match 3 inside the top 20-25. Will also be interested in moving picks to next year if possible as there are more academy picks coming (at least at this stage)

Plenty of options to get multiple late first and second round picks for it from crows swans etc they will easily get enough points for all 3. Depends how aggressive they want to get I still think they could get pick 2 or 3 from north hawks to get ahead of Walter for their first and still orchestrate enough points. Would mean losing their f1 though. North better placed to deal given they have ports first than us.
They already have around 1700 with their next 3 picks and probably only need another 1700 worst case for all 3 which would equate to crows 20 and 23 as an example. Suns first for those picks plus something future would surely work and suits crows given where they are at to bring in 1 high end talent.

 

[tombomb]

Eddie McGuire confirmed tonight they will be picking Reid at number one if they stay last.
Of course they will. These campaigners arent stupid unfortunately

He didn't really confirm that though.

He said West Coast will take Reid unless a team makes an offer that is too good to refuse. Which is the sought of quality you'd usually get from someone like Tom Browne.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

That's pretty funny.

If WC want Reid they should take him, this flight risk stuff is not worth considering. What is worth considering is that they could use the enormous value of this single pick they hold to get a raft of elite young players, and speed up the process of climbing out of the hole they're in. A Roughead/Franklin/Lewis type draft could be on offer here. That's what I would aim for if I was their list manager: 3 picks in the first round. A deal like Picks 1, 19 to a club in exchange for picks 3, 9 and 17.

They could also land the next Jimmy Tompos, Paddy Dow, Hunter Clark, Lachie OBrien, Will Setterfield, Petrevski Seton, Jack Bowes, Aaron Francis etc When you have a locked in elite talent you take it.. If he wants to leave in 2 years' time you cash in at the trade table, there is already a precedent with Jorne Francis.

 

[TheBoss]

If the asking price is a top 5 + top 10 + F1 then it is a hard to pass for me.

For that kind of currency I would be expecting a top 5 player in the league with. I’d be surprised if Melbourne would get such an offer if Oliver was on the trade table.

Harley Reid might become that player in time, but it’s way too much to pay for an unproven kid.

Plenty of consensus #1 picks have not lived up to expectations. Remember the pre-draft hype for Tom Scully

21

Tom Scully

Age

34

Ht

181cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

12.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

5.1

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.1

2star

CL

0.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.8

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

3.8

5star

?

 

[LordLucifer]

Eddie McGuire confirmed tonight they will be picking Reid at number one if they stay last.
Of course they will. These campaigners arent stupid unfortunately

McGuire also said they are saving up a huge warchest to go hard at Free Agency with, in other words, mature-age players.

It's why I suggested a trade to the Eagles of some players who can play seniors from the get-go.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

McGuire also said they are saving up a huge warchest to go hard at Free Agency with, in other words, mature-age players.

It's why I suggested a trade to the Eagles of some players who can play seniors from the get-go.

Maguire has been proven to be FOS, often framing his opinion as having substance behind it.. Remember the front-page HS articles he wrote about the grand final during covid and all the crazy things he come up with so that the MCG could still host it, turned out to be just a brain fart in Eddies head and had the backing of nobody.

 

[Obeanie1]

Curtain isnt flying as much this year

GWS currently have picks 4 and 5

It isnt set in stone Curtain is top 3 right now, plenty of challengers and more to come with the champs to determine alot

Feel if they trade 1 they will want pick 4 or 5 as a must plus two other 1sts.

Pick 4 would likely land one of Curtin or Watson.

They would want one pick to use on a top end talent in the top 5.

 

[Obeanie1]

McGuire also said they are saving up a huge warchest to go hard at Free Agency with, in other words, mature-age players.

It's why I suggested a trade to the Eagles of some players who can play seniors from the get-go.

Stop peddling old players you want to see go and think they will land pick 1.

It's a fantasy.

Bar Cripps the rest are only worth late 2nds and 3rd round picks. Similar mature role players can be picked up easily without trading pick 1.

 

[moond0g]

If the asking price is a top 5 + top 10 + F1 then it is a hard to pass for me.

For that kind of currency I would be expecting a top 5 player in the league with. I’d be surprised if Melbourne would get such an offer if Oliver was on the trade table.

Harley Reid might become that player in time, but it’s way too much to pay for an unproven kid.

Plenty of consensus #1 picks have not lived up to expectations. Remember the pre-draft hype for Tom Scully?

Scully didn't live up to the hype, granted. But tbf he also had very serious injury issues.

Even so, Scully was a good AFL player. there are plenty of top 10 picks who are very poor and end up playing <20 AFL games, for example. Pick 1 doesn't always end up the best player in the draft, or a guaranteed superstar. But they're generally always an AFL quality player.

If you trade out pick 1 and end up with someone who plays a handful of games it would be horrible.

 

[jdstorm]

Personally I think (although I’m bias) that Essendon should be considered the front runners for a trade for Reid should it happen.

This is for a few reasons
1. Essendons new CEO Craig Vosso used to work at West Coast so they have people with enough existing relationships to get the job done
2. Reid was training there last summer by choice and has and existing relationship with some of the players
3. They are a big Melbourne club and that has some advantages when recruiting ie you get to play Anzac Day and Dreamtime
4. If there’s any team dumb enough to pay significant overs for a player it’s Essendon
5. Essendon has enough cap space that they can leverage into assets for Reid via either salary dump or paying a significant amount of a players contract that they send to west coast via trade and still replace them with a decent player via Free Agency.
6. Essendon have a real need at Mid/HF where Reid will play

 

[Keystone agony]

Feel if they trade 1 they will want pick 4 or 5 as a must plus two other 1sts.

Pick 4 would likely land one of Curtin or Watson.

They would want one pick to use on a top end talent in the top 5.

If Reid says hes happy to go to GWS

Then they imo will offer picks 4, 5 and F1 for him

 

[Obeanie1]

If Reid says hes happy to go to GWS

Then they imo will offer picks 4, 5 and F1

Then sign us up.

Not sure if the kid would say he'd be happy going there though.

 

[Keystone agony]

Then sign us up.

Not sure if the kid would say he'd be happy going there though.

Thats the issue but hes close to the border so who knows

 

[Makeshift Park]

Personally I think (although I’m bias) that Essendon should be considered the front runners for a trade for Reid should it happen.

This is for a few reasons
1. Essendons new CEO Craig Vosso used to work at West Coast so they have people with enough existing relationships to get the job done
2. Reid was training there last summer by choice and has and existing relationship with some of the players
3. They are a big Melbourne club and that has some advantages when recruiting ie you get to play Anzac Day and Dreamtime
4. If there’s any team dumb enough to pay significant overs for a player it’s Essendon
5. Essendon has enough cap space that they can leverage into assets for Reid via either salary dump or paying a significant amount of a players contract that they send to west coast via trade and still replace them with a decent player via Free Agency.
6. Essendon have a real need at Mid/HF where Reid will play

As things stand at the moment, Essendon doesn't have the draft capital to even be considered part of the race.

West Coast aren't going to give pick 1 to the Bombers for your single first rounder - likely to be around pick 9 or 10 - and a future first. Which is about all the serious capital you can offer. Let alone any talk of you paying "overs".

You'd have to ship Merrett off for a first rounder before you'd even be in the conversation.

 

[Keystone agony]

As things stand at the moment, Essendon doesn't have the draft capital to even be considered part of the race.

West Coast aren't going to give pick 1 to the Bombers for your single first rounder - likely to be around pick 9 or 10 - and a future first. Which is about all the serious capital you can offer. Let alone any talk of you paying "overs".

You'd have to ship Merrett off for a first rounder before you'd even be in the conversation.

Yep, trade would have to include Nic Martin imo

Between North, Hawks Suns, GWS, Melb as they only really have the draft pick capital at this stage. Even Melbourne are probably starting to be pushed out of it

I think North/Hawks will have to offer more than 2 first though

 

[jdstorm]

As things stand at the moment, Essendon doesn't have the draft capital to even be considered part of the race.

West Coast aren't going to give pick 1 to the Bombers for your single first rounder - likely to be around pick 9 or 10 - and a future first. Which is about all the serious capital you can offer. Let alone any talk of you paying "overs".

You'd have to ship Merrett off for a first rounder before you'd even be in the conversation.

Obviously.

But draft capital isn’t the only “football asset” teams have. It’s easy enough to get draft picks.

If two teams want to make a deal they will work it out.

Essendons big asset is cap space (and potentially a priority pick for Darcy Parish)

Let’s assume Parish stays and Essendon is in the 10-12 range for draft pick this year.

10-12 + F1 is about half the price needed. So what other assets do they have ?

Rumoured about 3M in cap space which means they can do things like the Jack Bowes Sallary dump for more draft assets.

They can also pay a huge amount of salary for experienced useful players and ship them off to other teams.

Ie what Pick do you think a team would give up for 2 years of Dylan Sheil for free? Or a Jake Kelly perhaps

Probably a mid first

Then there’s the fact that Essendon have been bad so long that they have a young list with some decent prospects on it.

Throw in a Nick Bryan (21 yr old Ruck project) or a Jai Caldwell or another decent young player.

3 firsts in the top 15 seems to be the going rate, they should be able to get there + 1-2 useful players

 

[HirdsTheWord]

That's pretty funny.

If WC want Reid they should take him, this flight risk stuff is not worth considering. What is worth considering is that they could use the enormous value of this single pick they hold to get a raft of elite young players, and speed up the process of climbing out of the hole they're in. A Roughead/Franklin/Lewis type draft could be on offer here. That's what I would aim for if I was their list manager: 3 picks in the first round. A deal like Picks 1, 19 to a club in exchange for picks 3, 9 and 17.

it absolutely 100% is worth considering. You would be absolutely stupid and inept at your job if you didn't consider it when recruiting the #1 pick from another state.

That doesn't mean you dont take the risk, but you certainly consider it.

if WC recruiters aren't talking to Reid and doing their due diligence about his intentions about moving away from Victoria they should be sacked on the spot.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Obviously.

But draft capital isn’t the only “football asset” teams have. It’s easy enough to get draft picks.

If two teams want to make a deal they will work it out.

Essendons big asset is cap space (and potentially a priority pick for Darcy Parish)

Let’s assume Parish stays and Essendon is in the 10-12 range for draft pick this year.

10-12 + F1 is about half the price needed. So what other assets do they have ?

Rumoured about 3M in cap space which means they can do things like the Jack Bowes Sallary dump for more draft assets.

They can also pay a huge amount of salary for experienced useful players and ship them off to other teams.

Ie what Pick do you think a team would give up for 2 years of Dylan Sheil for free? Or a Jake Kelly perhaps

Probably a mid first

Then there’s the fact that Essendon have been bad so long that they have a young list with some decent prospects on it.

Throw in a Nick Bryan (21 yr old Ruck project) or a Jai Caldwell or another decent young player.

3 firsts in the top 15 seems to be the going rate, they should be able to get there + 1-2 useful players

I like your optimism mate, but none of that says to me that Essendon should be considered the front runner for Reid.