Opinion Non-Crows AFL 8 - Daddy Donuts Delivers Dream Drubbing

[Pilchard_Adams]

They are 6-1 on the road and won 12 games in a row.

I am not sure how you can be anymore convincing!?!?!?!

Easy. By winning games by more than a kick. That kind of stuff is sliding doors moments. 1 missed shot on goal is the difference. 1 accurate shot rather than a miss from the opposition. Those games are a flip of the coin and eventually the coin won't land in the powers favour.

2 of the wins relied on shots after the siren.

12 wins is brilliant. If they had won them by more than an average of 17 points it would be more convincing.

 

[FR0GGY]

Easy. By winning games by more than a kick. That kind of stuff is sliding doors moments. 1 missed shot on goal is the difference. 1 accurate shot rather than a miss from the opposition. Those games are a flip of the coin and eventually the coin won't land in the powers favour.

2 of the wins relied on shots after the siren.

12 wins is brilliant. If they had won them by more than an average of 17 points it would be more convincing.

And collingwood have won 6 by under 12 points, not convinced on them either?

 

[Mutineer]

Reckon we use to be like that some years ago. Dominated everywhere except on the scoreboard.

Melbourne seems to lack balance.

That balance has a name...Clayton Oliver.

 

[George CantStandYa]

Easy. By winning games by more than a kick. That kind of stuff is sliding doors moments. 1 missed shot on goal is the difference. 1 accurate shot rather than a miss from the opposition. Those games are a flip of the coin and eventually the coin won't land in the powers favour.

2 of the wins relied on shots after the siren.

12 wins is brilliant. If they had won them by more than an average of 17 points it would be more convincing.

And collingwood have won 6 by under 12 points, not convinced on them either?

It’s bizarre isn’t it. If we had Ports record I reckon the same posters would be convinced

 

[El Doederino]

What would be an AFL equivalent of the Bairstow dismissal?

Something totally within the rules but spirit of the game and all that?

 

[GameofSloanes]

It’s bizarre isn’t it. If we had Ports record I reckon the same posters would be convinced

They'd be telling everyone how we're gonna win the flag
Make no mistake port are an extremely good chance of being premiers. I've seen nothing that makes me think they can't win it

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

And collingwood have won 6 by under 12 points, not convinced on them either

When?

They beat Adelaide by 1 and by 2, beat Saints by 6. Lost to Melbourne by 4.

Collingwoods average winning margin is over 5 goals.

These power ranking models have them sitting 4th best this season


And Squiggle has them behind Brisbane here

 

[footy4ever]

That balance has a name...Clayton Oliver.

Who of course will be back and in full fight when we play them.

 

[FR0GGY]

When?

They beat Adelaide by 1 and by 2, beat Saints by 6. Lost to Melbourne by 4.

Collingwoods average winning margin is over 5 goals.

These power ranking models have them sitting 4th best this season
View attachment 1727901

And Squiggle has them behind Brisbane here
View attachment 1727902

Sorry I counted their loss to Melbourne as one and must have counted their 13pt win vs essendon.
Tell you what I’m even less convinced by Melbourne and Brisbane.
In the end you only have to win.
That graph seems pretty useless if Sydney is at 6.
Sydney’s average winning margin is 63, it’s a bit misleading the average winning margin.
Even take out their 171pt win and it’s still over 5 goals.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

It’s bizarre isn’t it. If we had Ports record I reckon the same posters would be convinced

12 in a row points to near unbeatable, premiership favourites. I dont think Port are anywhere near that. I'd have Port in a pack of 5 teams who could win the flag. Geelong being one of them if they make finals. Bulldogs on their day are capable.

Like I said before, Houstons kick made it by 30cm. Swans kick to win it fell just short. Bombers, Melbourne, Saints decided by a kick.

Every other contenders 50/50 close games have gone closer to 50% win loss. Port, while a good side, are not next Level good.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Sorry I counted their loss to Melbourne as one and must have counted their 13pt win vs essendon.
Tell you what I’m even less convinced by Melbourne and Brisbane.
In the end you only have to win.
That graph seems pretty useless if Sydney is at 6.
Sydney’s average winning margin is 63, it’s a bit misleading the average winning margin.
Even take out their 171pt win and it’s still over 5 goals.

Sydney are inflated with the WC win, they had dropped from 3rd ranked at the start of the season to 8th before the WC game.

 

[George CantStandYa]

12 in a row points to near unbeatable, premiership favourites. I dont think Port are anywhere near that. I'd have Port in a pack of 5 teams who could win the flag. Geelong being one of them if they make finals. Bulldogs on their day are capable.

Like I said before, Houstons kick made it by 30cm. Swans kick to win it fell just short. Bombers, Melbourne, Saints decided by a kick.

Every other contenders 50/50 close games have gone closer to 50% win loss. Port, while a good side, are not next Level good.

No one is suggesting they are premiership certainties, but they are right up there and a real threat.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is how they get themselves in positions to still give them a chance to win. They aren’t being blown away and every game they’ve been in a chance to win. Plenty of these games they could easily have lost but they’ve got the belief and the ability to stay in it, recover from a deficit and pull off wins.

The teams below them can’t claim to have that. All have been flaky to some regard. I consider only Brisbane to be a legitimate contender and that’s if they can win at the G. Melbourne and Bulldogs too flaky. I’d consider us more of a threat especially if we can get a home final.

 

[Bearded Clam]

What would be an AFL equivalent of the Bairstow dismissal?

Something totally within the rules but spirit of the game and all that?

Bairstow left his crease and got stumped..

Umpires declared him out. The Aussies didnt.

Bairstow himself actually tried to get Labuschagne out in exactly the same way just two days ago..

Was it within the spirit of the game when Bairstow tried it?.. if Bairstow happened to be successful would the england team have said “nah, thats wrong let Labuschagne stay at the crease”.. Fxxk no..

its hilarious the pommy flogs are squaling like stuck pigs now…

Hypocricy at its finest.

Fxxk em.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Some scurrilous whispers going around that [PLAYERCARD]Clayton Oliver[/PLAYERCARD] has a Buddy Franklin calf injury

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

No one is suggesting they are premiership certainties, but they are right up there and a real threat.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is how they get themselves in positions to still give them a chance to win. They aren’t being blown away and every game they’ve been in a chance to win. Plenty of these games they could easily have lost but they’ve got the belief and the ability to stay in it, recover from a deficit and pull off wins.

The teams below them can’t claim to have that. All have been flaky to some regard. I consider only Brisbane to be a legitimate contender and that’s if they can win at the G. Melbourne and Bulldogs too flaky. I’d consider us more of a threat especially if we can get a home final.

Yeah I agree with that. I'm just an odds person and can't help but think some of these games port won were perhaps decided by a shot that hit the post.

By the same regard we have let games slip. Losing with more scoring shots is the ultimate footy crime. We actually should have a firm chance of 4th place had we not stuffed up in 3 or 4 games.

If the crows managed to sneak into 4th some how and port lose their home ground advantage for the final that would be pretty juicy.

 

[FR0GGY]

Sydney are inflated with the WC win, they had dropped from 3rd ranked at the start of the season to 8th before the WC game.

Even without their win they still have a 5 goal winning margin and they won’t make finals, it’s about as useless stat as you get.
Wins gets you to finals.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

What's would be an AFL equivalent of the Bairstow dismissal?

Something totally within the rules but spirit of the game and all that?

Perhaps the Owen's shot on goal that clipped the flag holder on the back of the post being called a behind.

 

[SugarShane]

When?

They beat Adelaide by 1 and by 2, beat Saints by 6. Lost to Melbourne by 4.

Collingwoods average winning margin is over 5 goals.

These power ranking models have them sitting 4th best this season
View attachment 1727901

And Squiggle has them behind Brisbane here
View attachment 1727902

Always worth remembering if the squiggle was reliable we'd have about 2 more flags.

 

[FR0GGY]

What would be an AFL equivalent of the Bairstow dismissal?

Something totally within the rules but spirit of the game and all that?

Gotta laugh that bairstow did exactly the same thing a few days earlier, he just missed.

 

[SugarShane]

What would be an AFL equivalent of the Bairstow dismissal?

Something totally within the rules but spirit of the game and all that?

Footy doesn't have a lot. I'd almost go with the Selwood type ducking as being the most similar though it's still not quite the same.

Luckily footy exists in the real world where it's not frowned upon to try and win by following the rules.

 

[brucetiki]

I just had a look - Their away games this year

Collingwood - Lose by 71 points
Sydney - Win by 2 points
St Kilda - Win by 7 points
North Melbourne - Win by 70 points
Richmond - Win by 10 points
Western Bulldgs - Win by 22 points
Essendon - Win by 4 points

Not very convincing tbh

Sure, we're pretty bad ourselves, but that's not the form of a top 2 team.

Good sides know how to have luck on their sides when it comes to winning.

Both the reigning men's and women's SANFL premiers are examples of this.

On the flip side, Centrals last season won 4 games and lost a further 4 by under a goal.

 

[Crow till I die]

No one is suggesting they are premiership certainties, but they are right up there and a real threat.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is how they get themselves in positions to still give them a chance to win. They aren’t being blown away and every game they’ve been in a chance to win. Plenty of these games they could easily have lost but they’ve got the belief and the ability to stay in it, recover from a deficit and pull off wins.

The teams below them can’t claim to have that. All have been flaky to some regard. I consider only Brisbane to be a legitimate contender and that’s if they can win at the G. Melbourne and Bulldogs too flaky. I’d consider us more of a threat especially if we can get a home final.

The flip side to that coin is that sides are always generally in it and a chance against port in the number of close wins they have had. Winning is winning and they have been able to keep finding a way, but we are not yet at finals and port have a 3 game stretch coming up that will present a big test to this winning streak.

Melbourne have been without Oliver, Collingwood without De Goey and Sidebottom but will get them back at some point, port have had a clean bill of health in the middle just about all year - what would losing Rozee or Butters do to their midfield dominance? we are yet to find out and we may not. Lots of unknowns yet to come

 

[MarcusP2]

Gotta laugh that bairstow did exactly the same thing a few days earlier, he just missed.

And Marnus was on to it and got back.

 

[SugarShane]

Good sides know how to have luck on their sides when it comes to winning.

Both the reigning men's and women's SANFL premiers are examples of this.

Exactly. At some point winning close games isn't luck. It's execution. And luckily it's irrelevant if you win a finals match by 1 or 100.

Dom Sheed sure is lucky that ball came off his foot perfectly in 2018, and West Coast sure are lucky that Collingwood stopped playing after kicking the first 5. Bet the flag still felt good though.

 

[George CantStandYa]

And Marnus was on to it and got back.

I didn’t see it, but given Marnus bats a fair way out of his crease, I’m guessing Bairstow was a legitimate stumping attempt.

Bairstow was in his crease, thought the ball was dead and moved out. He was silly but at the same time, when’s the last time you’ve seen a dismissal under similar circumstances? Reckon it was a bit smelly.