Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII

[swuzzlebubble]

Depends on where Cody is likely to fall. Given they have devalued all picks, it would take a lot more second rounders to pay for a high bid.

As an example a bid at #5 in the new system would need picks 18, 36 and 54

 

[swuzzlebubble]

That’s an interesting concept:

Are the better looking AFL players paid better and more wanted by fans in comparison to their peers who perform at the same level.

Do fans generally want better looking players in their side? …. My wife seems to think so!

Yes I'd have had an AFL career if not for this situation

 

[Monty1978]

Stupid but genuine question: if TDK was the exact same player, but didn’t look like a mythical Norse god, would there be as much hype around him? I’ll be honest: part of the reason I don’t want to lose him is aesthetics.

My first thought was maybe , then a split second later thought Clayton Oliver

 

[Broadside]

I don't know who is Han Solo yet who came to the rescue at the last minute in that movie...Carlton love a single person solution

Chewbacca not getting a medal from Princess Leia was the worst thing I’ve seen since Woewodin beating Kouta for the Brownlow. Still upsets me.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

As an example a bid at #5 in the new system would need picks 18, 36 and 54

#5 = 1795

#18 = 836
#36 = 317
#54 = 14

If the 20% discount is applicable, we'd still be short.

 

[dangertroy]

Stupid but genuine question: if TDK was the exact same player, but didn’t look like a mythical Norse god, would there be as much hype around him? I’ll be honest: part of the reason I don’t want to lose him is aesthetics.

The St Kilda offer is just a smoke screen. He's secretly being courted by Marvel to replace Chris Hemsworth.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

The St Kilda offer is just a smoke screen. He's secretly being courted by Marvel to replace Chris Hemsworth.

I was going to take it to a much darker place and suggest the Aryan Brotherhood, but yes .. let’s go with Marvel.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

#5 = 1795

#18 = 836
#36 = 317
#54 = 14

If the 20% discount is applicable, we'd still be short.

Is it changing 2025 v 2026?

Under the new draft value index and with a smaller discount, Brisbane would need to match a bid at Pick 5 with 1615.5 points - an increase of 113.1 points.

A bid for Pick 5 this year would mean the Lions would need a package close to Picks 18, 36 and 54 (the last selections of the first three rounds), which totals 1707 points, giving them 91.5 points leftover (approx. Pick 65 in return).

AFL Draft: The increased cost clubs will need to pay for father-son and Academy bids in 2025

Just how much more will clubs be forking up in draft bids this year? We break it down for you👇

www.zerohanger.com

 

[Wickzki]

That’s an interesting concept:

Are the better looking AFL players paid better and more wanted by fans in comparison to their peers who perform at the same level.

Do fans generally want better looking players in their side? …. My wife seems to think so!

This reads like an old Starchamber comment.

 

[Coops93]

My goodness then some negativity people around.

While somewhat fair, we are living in a salary cap league. We're already so top heavy it exposes our bottom 6, so getting further top heavy isn't exactly ideal. We need to balance out somehow.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

#5 = 1795

#18 = 836
#36 = 317
#54 = 14

If the 20% discount is applicable, we'd still be short.

Ok that article I linked seems to have used 2024 points table for the matching values which is wrong

 

[Schoonerman]

Stupid but genuine question: if TDK was the exact same player, but didn’t look like a mythical Norse god, would there be as much hype around him? I’ll be honest: part of the reason I don’t want to lose him is aesthetics.

I’m with you on this
It’s a stupid question

 

[DangerousD]

#5 = 1795

#18 = 836
#36 = 317
#54 = 14

If the 20% discount is applicable, we'd still be short.

You are talking about being short by a few places in the draft, like moving from pick 10 to 13, i think i worked out if Cody went 5 and we finished 9th, we’d have enough points, being short of points isn’t a problem, we still get the player.

 

[DangerousD]

Stupid but genuine question: if TDK was the exact same player, but didn’t look like a mythical Norse god, would there be as much hype around him? I’ll be honest: part of the reason I don’t want to lose him is aesthetics.

Nah not stupid, studies have shown good looking people get favourable deals across jobs, court sentencing and others.

One of the perks i guess

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Stupid but genuine question: if TDK was the exact same player, but didn’t look like a mythical Norse god, would there be as much hype around him? I’ll be honest: part of the reason I don’t want to lose him is aesthetics.

If anything, the wispy blonde locks are a drawback for me. Possibly jealous, but he doesn't put the fear of god into me, looking like he's about to sing Mmm Bop on stage.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

One has to stretch the reality to say Pitto is a "solid backup".

He got thrashed by an out of form Grundy...

Maybe he was better once, but he's a very limited ruckman.

Time to give HOK a run with the big boys....

So the years of Pitto as our main ruck count for nothing? There wouldn't be many teams in the league with a better back up ruck than Pitto when healthy

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

You are talking about being short by a few places in the draft, like moving from pick 10 to 13, i think i worked out if Cody went 5 and we finished 9th, we’d have enough points, being short of points isn’t a problem, we still get the player.

Not if we traded the first rounder.

 

[HaydossJ]

Alright, I'm stuck in a loop on this TDK decision, and I need to hash it out.

TDK isn't worth the monster deal the Saints threw at him. If keeping him means matching that kind of coin or coming close, I'm running for the hills. But if we can lock him in for the $850-950k per year that was floating around a few weeks back, then we’ve got a real decision to make. Let’s break it down.


Internal Options: Not Inspiring Confidence

• Pittonet: Look, he held his own early against Grundy in that Swans game, and Grundy’s been patchy this year. But when the heat was on, Pitto just couldn’t keep up. You could argue a full preseason and a good run of games might fix that, but his injury history is becoming a red flag for that to realistically happen. He’s a solid backup, but as a starting ruck? Nah, we’re not really competing with him.
• HOK: If Harry O’Keeffe was further along and we knew his floor was at least a starting AFL ruck, I’d be more open to letting TDK go. But realistically, even in a best-case scenario, he’s not ready for starting ruck duties in 2026. Too raw, too far off. Potential long-term.
• Lemmey: He’s even further behind. He’s more of a long-term project, maybe a secondary key forward and backup ruck if McKay moves on or gets injured. Not someone we’re building plans around.

Internal Summary: At best, we’ve got a decent backup in Pitto, but no one who screams “2026 starting ruck.” That’s a worry.


External Options: Slim Pickings


We’ve proper stuffed ourselves here. Trading away our first-rounder means we’re hamstrung at the trade table, and we need to keep a first-round pick for Cody Walker in next year’s draft. Free agency? If we want decent compo for TDK, we can’t be splashing cash on another player so we're out of that market.

The ruck market isn’t exactly bursting with talent either. Quality uncontracted rucks aren’t just sitting there waiting for a bargain deal.

• West Coast: Bailey Williams and Matthew Flynn are solid enough. Neither are close to TDK’s level, but they’d be an upgrade on Pitto. The Eagles also have younger rucks coming through who’ll need game time, so they might be open to a deal. Worth a look, but not exactly game-changers.
• Freo: Sean Darcy’s name keeps popping up. He’s quality when fit, but those knee issues are a massive concern. Are they degenerative? Just bad luck? No idea, but he’s on $750k+ a season, and Freo would know how desperate we are for a ruck when we let TDK walk. They’re not eating any of his contract in a trade to help us out, so we’d be copping the full hit. Big risk for not much discount compared to TDK’s reported offer.
• Elsewhere: Ned Moyle at the Suns is being groomed as Witts’ heir, and he’s already knocked back Vic clubs to stay put. Other options around the league are either meh or no better than Pitto. Not exactly inspiring.

External Summary: The market’s thin. Darcy’s the best bet skill-wise, but his knees and price tag ($100-150k less than TDK’s offer) make me nervous. Williams and Flynn are safer but not elite. We can’t afford to slide back into the dark days of trotting out the likes of Mott, French, Ackland, DeLuca, etc.


So, Where Does That Leave Us?


If TDK’s deal is in that $850-950k range, I’m leaning towards keeping him over gambling on someone like Darcy, who’s got injury clouds, or settling for a tier-down option like Williams or Flynn. The alternatives just don’t stack up, and the last thing we need is another decade of ruck woes.

There are other options.

ROB is OOC at the end of this season. Could we offer him a modest 2-years and then hope HOK is ready for 2028? Jordon Sweet hasn't played in the past month. Soldo?

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Maybe doesn’t want to play on a Sunday afternoon at 4.40 in front of 13k people

Yeah, but he really misses out on the chance to really know those 13,241 people intimately.

Culchor.

 

[BlueBlood15]

If TDK stays (and let’s be honest it’s a big if given he’s unsigned at the bye and the media appear to have him out the door), I’d expect another of our top liners to go.

We’ve had no real capacity to bring in quality since Cerra and Hewett at the end of 2021. 2022 was Acres on $1m over 3 years (under league average wage) after he was lowballed by Freo. 2023 was Elijah on a 1 year bargain basement deal. 2024 ditto for Haynes.

We’ve also shed depth players over the past 3 years, presumably at least partially to balance out the salary cap.

Clearly our salary cap is tight and it only gets tighter if TDK re-signs, so something has to give if we want to improve the list.

For what it’s worth, losing another star over TDK might actually work better for us as we could aim for more than a single first rounder in the compromised 2025 draft and push for picks in the stronger 2026 draft.

 

[Stamos]

As an example a bid at #5 in the new system would need picks 18, 36 and 54

You would also need pick 30 to match.

 

[Stamos]

#5 = 1795

#18 = 836
#36 = 317
#54 = 14

If the 20% discount is applicable, we'd still be short.

10% discount now.
We would need another 2nd rounder.

 

[Jatz]

TDK staying would (funnily enough) throw a bit of a spanner in the works cap wise.

Hopefully the club hadn't given up as much hope of keeping him as we had

 

[Blue__Balls]

Oh really? I'm going to have to stop my copium criticisms of him then.

Still, no first rounders. No Miles Bergman because we need our first rounder for Cody Walker next year. How do we get quicker?

Bit of a shake-up of roles and structure - forget names and salaries, just put blokes where they'll provide the best fit for the team.

Send Williams back to half back whenever he's fit.
Release the shackles on Cowan and entrust him to play more as a rebounding defender.
Saad slowing down a bit to play more lock-down with the occasional run.
Walsh to a permanent wing position and used as an outlet target laterally from the contest.
Smith into the midfield mix.
Cottrell back into the side as a half forward/wing rotation.
Gov moved forward to add another marking target and reliable set shot.
Young into the mix - maybe fighting Lij for a spot.
Acres/Hollands to fight it out for the second wing spot.
Wait and see on Kemp.

Doc done.
Fantasia done unless he plays out the rest of this year and plays well.
Evans done.
Fogarty depth.
Boyd depth.
Binns depth, maybe gone.
Cincotta depth, strong sub candidate.
Motlop depth, strong sub candidate.

Campos, O'Farrell, O'Keeffe, Carroll, Charleson, Lemmey, Moir, Wilson developing - selection encouraged unless one of the "depth" guys is absolutely killing it. If output in the ressies is similar, then preference the kid if a spot opens up.

FB: Haynes, Weitering, JSOS
HB: Williams, Cowan, Saad
C: Walsh, Hewett, [Acres/Hollands]
R: TDK, Cripps, Smith
HF: [Hollands/Young], McKay, Cottrell
FF: Durdin, Curnow, McGovern
I/C: Newman, Cerra, Lord, White
Sub: [Motlop/Cincotta]

A little more dash off half back, and some very good disposal still.

Use the wings in a more offensive manner. Coming out the front of the stoppage is all well and good, but not if we just bomb it in. Use the width of the ground, play a more possession-based game and be more considered with our forward 50 entries. The chaos entry should be reserved for fast breaks when we're able to get a numbers advantage.

Midfield similar, but Smith should add a different dimension. Tempering expectations, not expecting 30+ a game, but I'm confident the touches he does get will release teammates in good position more often than not.

Strong running and marking at HF, and a preference for guys who have shown they can look for and hit smart targets.
Move away from the fleet of defensive smalls, and retool the forward line with another goal-kicking tall in Gov.

Bench can be debated a bit, but I'd start with Newman over any of the kids for now, but with an open mind about someone like Wilson or Carroll if their preseason form and fitness warrants it. Cerra and Lord I think make the most sense for bench mids, both good enough users and have shown they can get involved in transition play. White my preference for the forward bench spot, but could easily be any of the other forward options, or even a utility like Kemp.

 

[RAPPA]

All of those heavy, long-term, high dollar deals on players that have not given an equal return on output, is starting to hurt. I don't expect some of those contracted players to voluntarily forfeit a portion of their salary to fund retaining others / acquiring other talent. But fmd, with the money we are paying to Harry, Charlie and Walsh (for example), we are not seeing a comparable return. And yes, well aware of money burnt on the likes of Williams and Gov too.