Opinion Are we a "legitimate" chance of winning the flag in 2025?

[kirky]

The fairy tale ending for us this year is to play Collingwood in the Grand Final.

And belt them.


Tex takes the mic when getting his Premiership Medal and announces his retirement.

The footy gods screwed us in 2017, two years after Phil’s death, but it is time for us to shine 10 years later.

Lets do it.

 

[kirky]

And I’ll add - there have been 68 quarters each team has played so far. We are leading, Collingwood second.

 

[SugarShane]

The footy gods screwed us in 2017, two years after Phil’s death, but it is time for us to shine 10 years later.

Lets do it.

Whoever wrote that script was a douchebag hollywood edgelord who thought happy endings were lame. Screw that guy.

 

[Dangarman]

We've also spent more game time in front and less time trailing than any other club.

That second quarter record is sizzling. 157%!
Only dropped that quarter to GWS (1.1 to 0.3) and Melbourne (5.1 to 3.5).

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Adelaide are the number one team for scoring from turnover (Collingwood very close) and number one for scoring from back half (Collingwood are close and then it’s massive daylight to 3rd). Funnily enough the Suns are bottom 4 in this, they rely heavily on clearance.

18 of the last 19 premiers are top 3 in this stat, Melbourne are the major outlier. Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood are top 3 in turnover stats and to no surprise are top 3 on the ladder and the premier comes from these 3 imo. I don’t think any other team are capable of winning it with their game style.

I know Geelong got us in Gather Round after we ran out of legs off a 5 day break from GC, but I think we comfortably beat them if we meet in finals.

 

[PCORF]

Adelaide are the number one team for scoring from turnover (Collingwood very close) and number one for scoring from back half (Collingwood are close and then it’s massive daylight to 3rd). Funnily enough the Suns are bottom 4 in this, they rely heavily on clearance.

18 of the last 19 premiers are top 3 in this stat, Melbourne are the major outlier. Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood are top 3 in turnover stats and to no surprise are top 3 on the ladder and the premier comes from these 3 imo. I don’t think any other team are capable of winning it with their game style.

I know Geelong got us in Gather Round after we ran out of legs off a 5 day break from GC, but I think we comfortably beat them if we meet in finals.

Does this mean a Collingwood vs Adelaide Grand Final?

I still think Adelaide lacks the experience compared to Collingwood or Brisbane so based on experience in a final Collingwood probably beats us, Brisbane has a better chance at beating Collingwood.

The Suns are still a huge test, but if we can beat the Suns and Port going into the Hawthorn game 2 weeks from now that will be huge. So far we have defended the home ground well this season losing just once at home.

I think finishing in the top 4 and avoiding Collingwood in the finals will help (we get the other side of their draw).

I expect us to win 4 of the last 6 games, with losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood. Gold Coast is a 50/50 and we should win the others. So a win over Hawthorn will be a huge bonus.

One week at a time, all it takes is one sudden defeat (outside of the Hawthorn and Collingwood games) and it's back to the drawing board.

Brisbane won it from 5th last year, but they had the hunger and belief from their past experience the year before. It drove them.

We do have a few weaknesses such as giving away goals from free kicks.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Adelaide are the number one team for scoring from turnover (Collingwood very close) and number one for scoring from back half (Collingwood are close and then it’s massive daylight to 3rd). Funnily enough the Suns are bottom 4 in this, they rely heavily on clearance.

18 of the last 19 premiers are top 3 in this stat, Melbourne are the major outlier. Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood are top 3 in turnover stats and to no surprise are top 3 on the ladder and the premier comes from these 3 imo. I don’t think any other team are capable of winning it with their game style.

I know Geelong got us in Gather Round after we ran out of legs off a 5 day break from GC, but I think we comfortably beat them if we meet in finals.

Suns being clearance kings whilst we are a horrible clearance team worries me for this weekend.

 

[Golumless]

Does this mean a Collingwood vs Adelaide Grand Final?

I still think Adelaide lacks the experience compared to Collingwood or Brisbane so based on experience in a final Collingwood probably beats us, Brisbane has a better chance at beating Collingwood.

The Suns are still a huge test, but if we can beat the Suns and Port going into the Hawthorn game 2 weeks from now that will be huge. So far we have defended the home ground well this season losing just once at home.

I think finishing in the top 4 and avoiding Collingwood in the finals will help (we get the other side of their draw).

I expect us to win 4 of the last 6 games, with losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood. Gold Coast is a 50/50 and we should win the others. So a win over Hawthorn will be a huge bonus.

One week at a time, all it takes is one sudden defeat (outside of the Hawthorn and Collingwood games) and it's back to the drawing board.

Brisbane won it from 5th last year, but they had the hunger and belief from their past experience the year before. It drove them.

We do have a few weaknesses such as giving away goals from free kicks.

Don't sleep on Brisbane, they're looking uber-dangerous at the moment.

 

[Cromulant]

Don't sleep on Brisbane, they're looking uber-dangerous at the moment.

They have significant lapses within games still, bit like us.

Will be interesting to see where they end up.

 

[pjcrows]

Brisbane for the flag IMO.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Don't sleep on Brisbane, they're looking uber-dangerous at the moment.

They have a tough finish and may have to try and win it from outside top 4 again.

 

[PCORF]

They have a tough finish and may have to try and win it from outside top 4 again.

But if we drop 3 games (Suns, Hawks and Pies) it may make it more interesting. And also don't forget about Geelong. Right now the top 4 is probably COL, BL, ADE, GEE. But teams have been getting knocked out in straight sets over recent years.

 

[Peter Doherty]

But if we drop 3 games (Suns, Hawks and Pies) it may make it more interesting. And also don't forget about Geelong. Right now the top 4 is probably COL, BL, ADE, GEE. But teams have been getting knocked out in straight sets over recent years.

Wouldn't be surprised if Geelong finish with the best percentage.

 

[kirky]

But if we drop 3 games (Suns, Hawks and Pies) it may make it more interesting. And also don't forget about Geelong. Right now the top 4 is probably COL, BL, ADE, GEE. But teams have been getting knocked out in straight sets over recent years.

If we drop three games at home, we don’t deserve to finish top 4. End of story.

All the indicators suggest that we will likely to win two of those three.

We currently have a 8-1 record at home.

We win this week and we are probably a lock for top 4.

 

[MrBarry]

Brisbane for the flag IMO.

Last 5 games against them 2 wins each and a draw.

Would 100% back us in against them on the G.

 

[pjcrows]

Last 5 games against them 2 wins each and a draw.

Would 100% back us in against them on the G.

Steady on.

 

[1990crow]

Steady on.

I wouldn't be terrified. Still think we'd lose, but I'd give us a chance.

 

[pjcrows]

I wouldn't be terrified. Still think we'd lose, but I'd give us a chance.

Based on a fairly significant assumption that we make the Grand Final.

 

[1990crow]

Based on a fairly significant assumption that we make the Grand Final.

Lol yeah. I'm optimistic for once! Big 3 weeks coming up for us.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Suns being clearance kings whilst we are a horrible clearance team worries me for this weekend.

We may need our defence to hang tough again if we lose the midfield.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

They have significant lapses within games still, bit like us.

Will be interesting to see where they end up.

They have lapses, but they also have the ability to score quickly.

 

[Cromulant]

They have lapses, but they also have the ability to score quickly.

Much like us.

Personally I think our defence is better

 

[NSolis]

I'm still in the 'no' camp due to having no finals experience to speak of in the group, but if we win this weekend it starts to look fairly reasonable that we could win all of the three after and go into the home game against Collingwood 16-5 for a top 2 clash, which would be pretty great and at least mean we are firmly in the window.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Suns being clearance kings whilst we are a horrible clearance team worries me for this weekend.

Doesn’t worry me one bit, Suns have the same profile as the Bulldogs. We defend clearance very well and are the best at scoring from it.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Much like us.

Personally I think our defence is better

Our defence is better but their midfield is better.