Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[Sean_09]

If you play around with the ladder predictor, even if we win against Collingwood we still finish 7/8th depending on if the other results go our way (and my predictions are optimistic).

View attachment 2372137

I don't see us dropping to Port at Adelaide, they're almost done for the season at this stage

 

[wakojako]

I don't see us dropping to Port at Adelaide, they're almost done for the season at this stage

My optimistic prediction is 4/6. Imo we are closer to winning 3/6 then 5/6 next games which is why I'm predicting somewhere in the middle (4 wins) as my optimistic prediction. It all comes down to the Collingwood game.

 

[BeinPurplenGreen]

We lose to any of West Coast, Carlton or Port we don't deserve finals.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Bulldogs look to be the team to drop out of finals, they need to beat GWS at home to get to 14 wins by round 23 and then they play us in round 24.

Hawks should easily get to 14 wins, the other games are vs Crows in Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane in Brisbane. They are the other team that could only get to 14 wins.

The next 3 games are pretty easy for Freo. Win all 3 we get to 15. Then if we can get one of the last 2, we are a good chance of 16 wins.







Brisbane Lions - 13 wins

Round 19 – Fri 18 July vs. Western Bulldogs @ The Gabba
Round 20 – Fri 25 July vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
Round 21 – Sat 2 August vs. Collingwood @ MCG
Round 22 – Fri 8 August vs. Sydney @ The Gabba
Round 23 – Fri 15 August vs. Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
Round 24 – Fri 22 to Sun 24 August vs. Hawthorn @ The Gabba (day/time TBC)


5 50/50 games. They will get to 15, they are playing great football.

Geelong Cats - 11 wins


Round 19 (July 20) vs. St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
Round 20 (July 26) vs. North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
Round  21 (Sun 3 Aug) vs. Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
Round 22 (Aug 8) vs. Essendon @ GMHBA Stadium
Round 23 (Aug 17) vs. Sydney Swans @ SCG
Round  24 (Fri 22 – Sun 24 Aug) vs. Richmond Tigers @ MCG (exact day/time TBC)


Clearly have an easy run. Should easily get to 15.

Gold Coast Suns - 11 wins + bonus round


Round 20 (July 26) vs. Brisbane Lions @ People First Stadium
Round 21 – Saturday, 2 August 2025 vs. Richmond Tigers @ People First Stadium, 4:10 PM AEST
Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. GWS Giants @ People First Stadium
Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. port Adelaide away.
Rescheduled Opening‑Round match vs. Essendon @ People First Stadium (date/time TBC)

4 easy games. Getting a bit tight, but they should get to 15.

Hawthorn Hawks - 12 wins

Round 20 (July 24) vs. Carlton @ MCG
Round  21 – Friday, 1 August 2025 vs. Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide Oval, 7:40 PM AEST
Round 22 (Aug 7) vs. Collingwood @ MCG
Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Melbourne Demons @ MCG
Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs.Brisbane

2 easy games left, and 3 very tough games. Hawks are definitely a chance to only get 14 wins.

GWS Giants - 12 wins

Round 20 (July 25) vs. Sydney Swans @ ENGIE Stadium
Round 21 (July 31) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. North Melbourne @ Manuka Oval
Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. St Kilda @ ENGIE Stadium

3 games vs bottom 9 sides. 3 50/50 games

Win the easy games and they get to 15

Western Bulldogs - 10 Wins

Round 20 • Friday, 25 July — Essendon vs Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium, 7:20 pm
Round 21 • Thursday, 31 July — Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium, 7:30 pm
Round 22 • Sunday, 10 August — Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG, 3:20 pm
Round 23 • Sunday, 17 August — Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles @ Marvel Stadium, 4:40 pm
Round 24 • Saturday, 23 August — Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium (time TBC)

They look to be the team that will only get to 14 wins. Expect them to win vs Essendon, Melbourne and West Coast. If they beat GWS, then they will need to beat us in the last round.

It may come down to round 24, to see who makes it.


Fremantle Dockers - 11 wins + round 19


Round 20 – Saturday 26 July 2025 vs. West Coast Eagles @ Optus Stadium, 4:15 PM AEST
Round 21 – Sunday 3 August 2025 vs. Carlton @ Optus Stadium, 5:10 PM AEST
Round 22 – Saturday 9 August 2025 vs. Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval, 8:10 PM AEST
Round 23 – Friday 15 August 2025 vs. Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium, 8:20 PM AEST
Round 24 – Aug 22–24 (TBC) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium—time yet to be confirmed


The next 3 games are all pretty easy. Must win all 3.

Then we will need to win 1 of the last 2.

 

[go_the_dockers]

2024 Ladder

 

[PurpleEyes]

if we perform well enough to win against Collingwood next week, I fully expect us to cop the wrath of bias anti-Freo umpiring to dampen our run home to September finals. The AFL are not going to want to see just 3 Vic based teams in the Top 8 and Freo have history of being treated like cannon fodder when in this position previously.

After watching the umpiring in today's game against the Pies, just imagine how bad the umpiring will be come our final round vs the bulldogs ... get ready to grab your torches and pitchforks.

Freo administration should be asking the AFL for some please explains now after today's win so we are not easily dismissed as a team of whinging sore losers.

 

[eastfreo75]

We just need to smash a few teams like West Coast and Carlton.

Replicate that last quarter and we will bury teams. It was the best I've seen us play this year.

I agree but our coach and players play safe.

 

[Madas]

I agree but our coach and players play safe.

 

[eastfreo75]

View attachment 2373552

What race? Maybe an ultra marathon.

 

[stax on the mull]

I agree but our coach and players play safe.

Weren't a couple of those game we won against bottom half teams played in wet or slippery conditions which tends to produce lower scores.

 

[Madas]

What race? Maybe an ultra marathon.

Just saying I trust his method overall

 

[BStaff17]

Now this isnt my prediction this is basically every team beating the bottom 8 sides.

So there are only 13 games left that involves both teams based in the top 10.

I have included the Swans in these games despite the fact they won't make the 8. They will be competitive.

So if every home team winning the games between 1 & 10. This is what the ladder looks like.

We beat the Lions but lose to the Dogs



Now this is the ladder if the team currently higher up on the ladder wins those 13 games

So in this one we lose to Brisbane but Beat the Bulldogs

 

[BStaff17]

Now this isnt my prediction this is basically every team beating the bottom 8 sides.

So there are only 13 games left that involves both teams based in the top 10.

I have included the Swans in these games despite the fact they won't make the 8. They will be competitive.

So if every home team winning the games between 1 & 10. This is what the ladder looks like.

We beat the Lions but lose to the Dogs

View attachment 2374227

Now this is the ladder if the team currently higher up on the ladder wins those 13 games

So in this one we lose to Brisbane but Beat the Bulldogs

View attachment 2374244

On this i reckon we need 17 wins to make Top 4 which will mean 5/5 & win out.

4 wins should get us a home final 5th/6th.

But the reality is the bottom half is the worst of the modern era. So any slip up is going to be very costly for any side.

Expecting any of those 33 games where a Top 10 side loses to a bottom 8 side are going to be very rare.

So any upset win that doesn't involve us is very crucial but as we have seen the past 2 weeks its unlikely there will be many.

 

[mattis117]

The Sydney Geelong game is huge, Sydney could open up their top 4 spot by beating Geelong, and I'd have that game as 50/50 right now.

 

[mattis117]

Now this isnt my prediction this is basically every team beating the bottom 8 sides.

So there are only 13 games left that involves both teams based in the top 10.

I have included the Swans in these games despite the fact they won't make the 8. They will be competitive.

So if every home team winning the games between 1 & 10. This is what the ladder looks like.

We beat the Lions but lose to the Dogs

View attachment 2374227

Now this is the ladder if the team currently higher up on the ladder wins those 13 games

So in this one we lose to Brisbane but Beat the Bulldogs

View attachment 2374244

Those images show how crucial percentage is going to be. If we drop both games to Lions and Dogs we can still finish 9th despite having 15 wins.

It would be nice for the Hawks to drop the extra game along the way. Also possible the suns will drop one.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yeah I started looking at key games yesterday but there was still more than I thought there would be. Long story short is basically Go Swans and GWS beating Dogs guarantees finals if we dont slip.

 

[freo84]

Lol all these scenarios are so complicated....

We should just win every game! Guaranteed finals!

 

[mattis117]

Yeah I started looking at key games yesterday but there was still more than I thought there would be. Long story short is basically Go Swans and GWS beating Dogs guarantees finals if we dont slip.

It would be great if the dogs could lose once more so we could relax on this topic lol.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

It would be great if the dogs could lose once more so we could relax on this topic lol.

Haha yeah, would be so nice to hit the last two weeks knowing it's locked up and we are playing for home finals, not finals fullstop

 

[freo84]

Haha yeah, would be so nice to hit the last two weeks knowing it's locked up and we are playing for home finals, not finals fullstop

We'll be playing for a top 4 spot.

A heart and soul player in Sam Docherty just retired. Surely the Blues get up and about for him and beat the Hawks.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

We'll be playing for a top 4 spot.

A heart and soul player in Sam Docherty just retired. Surely the Blues get up and about for him and beat the Hawks.

Blues, like us are a bit of a boggy side for them as well I think PLUS the Tassie slog and 6 day break for Hawks. Half a chance there for Carlton

 

[freo84]

Blues, like us are a bit of a boggy side for them as well I think PLUS the Tassie slog and 6 day break for Hawks. Half a chance there for Carlton

Will Day is more than likely back for the Hawks as well...Dang

Vomit***Go**vomits again****Go......Blooo...Bloooo....Bloooooo....

Nah can't do it...

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Will Day is more than likely back for the Hawks as well...Dang

Vomit***Go**vomits again****Go......Blooo...Bloooo....Bloooooo....

Nah can't do it...

Meh I hate Carlton but I’ll absolutely cheer for them against the Hawks. I got enough joy out of their season capitulating so bad that they have 2 whole months of dead rubbers.

Also I’ve learnt my hate for neutral teams is pretty fleeting, and when that little worm Nick Watson tries to duck into his first tackle 2 mins into the game wearing that shit faced grin it’ll be a reminder that my hate is shifting back to Hawthorn anyway lol.

 

[BStaff17]

Meh I hate Carlton but I’ll absolutely cheer for them against the Hawks. I got enough joy out of their season capitulating so bad that they have 2 whole months of dead rubbers.

Also I’ve learnt my hate for neutral teams is pretty fleeting, and when that little worm Nick Watson tries to duck into his first tackle 2 mins into the game wearing that shit faced grin it’ll be a reminder that my hate is shifting back to Hawthorn anyway lol.

Carlton also have GC at Marvel in a few weeks.

Might be cheering them on there again

 

[FreoRicci]

12-6.
Next 3 weeks
West Coast
Carlton
Port

If this team is serious, then should be winning all of those.

West Coast will go crazy at the players this week.

Cant go in giving 50% against these types of teams .