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Teams 2026 Rate My Pre-Season Team

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Here's my effort. I fully expect that this won't change in the slightest before the first ball-up of the season. $17.3k in the bank.

1766207004517.png
 
Jiska said:
Dunks at 621k seems overs.

Wasting trades on Rucks seems self defeating.
Click to expand...

New Ruck rules means I don't wanna pay the big bucks for rucks
 

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1766291004520.png

Very unusual structure; probably requires a lot of half-sideways/half upgrades. If it comes off, it could be spectacular, but is the balance of cash generation vs clogging the list good enough? I like the fact I have nearly $200k in the bank, and that I think this year, there are precious few absolute top price must pick premiums and rookies, which allows me to search for value.

Last year, defenders in the $450k ish range were mostly failures. Is this year any different. I don't think I'll nail every one. If they all hit 100+, is that a win? I think I calculated that to get enough points to win Supercoach, I'd need 109 points per scoring position. I still haven't worked out the 'mathematical best way to balance value versus points versus cash generation', even theoretically.
 
This is only the second time I have looked at team picker so far. Made a couple of changes the biggest is Bont>Steele which allowed me to upgrade a rookie to Draper.


1766290645536.png
 

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Eagling said:
View attachment 2499724

Very unusual structure; probably requires a lot of half-sideways/half upgrades. If it comes off, it could be spectacular, but is the balance of cash generation vs clogging the list good enough? I like the fact I have nearly $200k in the bank, and that I think this year, there are precious few absolute top price must pick premiums and rookies, which allows me to search for value.

Last year, defenders in the $450k ish range were mostly failures. Is this year any different. I don't think I'll nail every one. If they all hit 100+, is that a win? I think I calculated that to get enough points to win Supercoach, I'd need 109 points per scoring position. I still haven't worked out the 'mathematical best way to balance value versus points versus cash generation', even theoretically.
Click to expand...


Mathematically the best way to do it is as many reliable rookies as possible. Hence the long used phrase Rookies determine structure.

If a rookie is priced at 20 and scores 60 you’re looking at 3x value. Sometimes more.

Beyond that it’s about expected value per line and getting as close to that as possible.

Ruck line will be about 250
Defense about 650
Forwards more likely 530 (F6 replaced by flex)
Mids about 920
Flex 115-120 whatever R3 or M9 scores

Captain hopefully 140.

The other part is trade management.
Premium players score the most points and you want them to fill your team at years end but at the start they typically have neutral value at best.

However load your team up with midpricers where the value is and you likely won’t have enough trades to get a premium in every spot so it’s worth starting with a few so you don’t give up 10 points per player once teams are complete and your forced to keep a player from that next tier of guys
 
Dazzzler12 said:
What's your take on your Sheldrick pick?

I have him in my team as well.

Think he can Improve his TOG?

Can you see Fletcher over Mckercher being a better pick as POD?
Click to expand...
In two minds about Sheldrick. I doubt he’ll last in my side long TBH. Would prefer GnR.

McK’s role changed a few times which was annoying last year. Ideally I’d have both, really depends on if there’s enough rookies up forward.
 
jdstorm said:
Mathematically the best way to do it is as many reliable rookies as possible. Hence the long used phrase Rookies determine structure.

If a rookie is priced at 20 and scores 60 you’re looking at 3x value. Sometimes more.

Beyond that it’s about expected value per line and getting as close to that as possible.

Ruck line will be about 250
Defense about 650
Forwards more likely 530 (F6 replaced by flex)
Mids about 920
Flex 115-120 whatever R3 or M9 scores

Captain hopefully 140.

The other part is trade management.
Premium players score the most points and you want them to fill your team at years end but at the start they typically have neutral value at best.

However load your team up with midpricers where the value is and you likely won’t have enough trades to get a premium in every spot so it’s worth starting with a few so you don’t give up 10 points per player once teams are complete and your forced to keep a player from that next tier of guys
Click to expand...

The big structural quadary for me is - do I go a rookie + $300k versus a Jordan Ridley type; do that twice over, and suddenly I have enough money for a rolled gold premium - only, my perspective is that there are maybe one or two players in that $575k+ bracket worth starting (overall, they might be decent picks for the entire season, but I'm not going to pick one of the plethora of early bye midfield premiums when they'll miss a game, and a down game could see a $50-75k saving.

Add to that the no sub rule, 23 on field (do teams now pick a dedicated R/F), new ruck rules - there are so many changes. Do I absolutely want to pick Sean Darcy? No, but he could be good value, at least to begin with (it wouldn't surprise me if I made a heap of ruck trades - I think Xerri's fixture is really good to begin with, so if I'm spending up, it's probably for him. Jackson and English are nice because I think the jumping rule helps, as well as English being good around the ground. Gawn might benefit from sitting behind play and intercepting, because players might kick more to keep the ball in play.

How much cash generation and spare cash is worth offsetting lost points. Of course, if a rookie outscores a midpricer, then that's an instant win. If I start more rookies than anyone, does that improve my chances of hitting all the winners

If I'm picking on a philosophy of

1: I'm aiming to have an average of 110+ for defence, midfield and ruck keepers, and 100+ for forwards.
2: I'm trying to limit early bye exposure as much as possible.
3: If I'm paying up, I need to have a geniune reason for doing so.
4: If no other parameters are fulfilled, I have to be reasonably confident that, barring injury, I'll make at least $150K+ from the pick;

Then a team structure looks something like this:

1766311068329.png
Now, the big difference is between my earlier lineup, with McKercher, Houston, Newman, Bergman and Ridley all missing. I think the six fall in that 95-110 range, with various issues with health and role. They could all feasibly work out and sit in that high 100's range, which probably puts them at least breaking even, even if someone like Nas goes at 115ish, just because of the savings. Serong I see as okay value, but am I certain he breaks over 110 again? No - normally I'd take him on value though. LDU is another option, but I like Wardlaw as a breakout option who I have the feeling will take over the mantle as the #1 mid at the Roos. Sean Darcy is cutting things close. Will he be a full ruck share with Jackson, or will Jackson be a utility. Can Darcy stay healthy? Is Sam Draper going to be the #1 ruck at Brisbane? In the forward line, there is a bit more leeway to gamble. For instance, I could put Sid Draper and Treloar in the midfield, and pick up Max King (STK) (even though he's injured until Janurary, and Todd Marshall (defence but concussion risk I think), just because of Job Security and Role benefits. I could maybe take a risk on one of McKercher/Houston etc, and try to weigh up who I think has the best chance of hitting 110+? Jordan Clark is another safe, get what you pay for over the course of the season, 105 avg player. Could you get him cheaper? Probably. How much is that solid role, solid average pick worth, even if he's not going to be top 6 by average in all likelyhood? I don't know.

I think if you're picking an early bye premium player, you have to be reasonably confident that they'll outscore a similarly priced non-bye player by about 10 ppg over the first six weeks, to offset the extra rookie score you'll be taking on. Obviously, best 18 mitigates the risk somewhat, but generally speaking, everyone will have the best rookie scores anyway, barring outliers like a missed selection or benching the wrong rookie.

Knowing all this, can one genuinely look at a team like this, 1766311904354.png and think - yes, I can envisage creating a winning team from this structure. There'll be early pain, but by the time upgrade season comes along, there will be no stopping things, because not only with the cash generation outstrip everyone else in the competion, the cash reserves will be the highest, and the available options will be endless, because not only have we skipped the early bye, but we'll take advantage of an early blip in scoring because of settling in to the season, the magic number has adjusted, pushing prices down.

Say with the cash remaining, one could grab 3 more premiums off the bat. And say you nail the worst rookies, the ones that make $100k, and say that the premiums you pick end up falling about $50k - so you lose about $450k of extra value, on top of spending most of your cash reserve. But the benefit is - about 1000 extra points over the first six weeks (3*195 + 3*130), assuming you're picking bye-effected players who will score 115ppg. The question is, can you make up those lost 1000 points, over the remaining 18 rounds of the season, if your team value is $2m higher than anyone else. I think the mid-season byes hurt a little bit, if you get consistency. If you nail the ceiling options, like the rucks, maybe that warchest helps you instead. And just for clarity - 19 out of the top 25, and 22 of the top 30 most expensive players, have that early bye. The outliers are:

Gawn - he's up there in age now. New ruck changes - I don't think he's definitively going to be hamstrung, but I'm reluctant to spend up on someone with his profile.

Xerri - probably the ruck I'd be willing to spend up on, just due to the fixture - because I think targeting ruck fixtures are a gold mine.

Butters - gold early fixture. Helps that there's just about no other uberpremium midfield option around him without that early bye.

Brayshaw - who knows who gets the lion's share out of the Freo midfield. Young comes in. Does Serong bounce back? Does Jackson eat up some of the pie? Does Sean Darcy, indirectly?

Dawson - I like him, but he drops stinkers. His three lowest scores were between Rounds 5 to 9; prime for cheap upgrade; and he was decent value at $550k - $610k is too steep.

Jackson - I think the ruck rules probably help, but so many other question marks over role, ruck share. If Darcy goes down, I probably pick him though.

Zerrett - who knows; could be a 115 player, or could languish in that 105-110 range after the disappointment of not getting an off-season move.

Sheezel - everyone serious is picking him. No point discussing.

Even looking at the bye options, can I see anyone going 10ppg higher than their starting priced to average; over the first 6 weeks? Barring an outlier 170+, probably not. Maybe Jack Sinclair or Tim English could hit a 120 average early; but I think the most likely thing is that these players come into their own in the middle of the season, and that's when they hit their stride.
 
Eagling said:
Even looking at the bye options, can I see anyone going 10ppg higher than their starting priced to average; over the first 6 weeks? Barring an outlier 170+, probably not. Maybe Jack Sinclair or Tim English could hit a 120 average early; but I think the most likely thing is that these players come into their own in the middle of the season, and that's when they hit their stride.
Click to expand...
love your thinking. was a great read. makes sense what youre trying to do. my only issue is, that by the time you're hitting your strides, youre too far behind the pack..

I dont envisage a scenario where youre pumping out 2700+ scores that early on to make up for the early loss of points.

good idea but. theres some merit in what youre thinking. as much as the price changes and cash gen matter, this game is about scoring the most points possible. that much cash sitting dormant in the bank account, is fast outweighing the benefits of investing it into your team.
 
v1.3.5

1766322800323.png

starting with bont and butters feels like the right play. its a scary pair to go up against. let alone the gax ruck combo. nas and nd are the nice little kicers, with ex-uber reborn premo mid trac, and one of my newest favourite players in fletcher.

lawlah is my sneaky pod.
 
Eagling said:
The big structural quadary for me is - do I go a rookie + $300k versus a Jordan Ridley type; do that twice over, and suddenly I have enough money for a rolled gold premium - only, my perspective is that there are maybe one or two players in that $575k+ bracket worth starting (overall, they might be decent picks for the entire season, but I'm not going to pick one of the plethora of early bye midfield premiums when they'll miss a game, and a down game could see a $50-75k saving.

Add to that the no sub rule, 23 on field (do teams now pick a dedicated R/F), new ruck rules - there are so many changes. Do I absolutely want to pick Sean Darcy? No, but he could be good value, at least to begin with (it wouldn't surprise me if I made a heap of ruck trades - I think Xerri's fixture is really good to begin with, so if I'm spending up, it's probably for him. Jackson and English are nice because I think the jumping rule helps, as well as English being good around the ground. Gawn might benefit from sitting behind play and intercepting, because players might kick more to keep the ball in play.

How much cash generation and spare cash is worth offsetting lost points. Of course, if a rookie outscores a midpricer, then that's an instant win. If I start more rookies than anyone, does that improve my chances of hitting all the winners

If I'm picking on a philosophy of

1: I'm aiming to have an average of 110+ for defence, midfield and ruck keepers, and 100+ for forwards.
2: I'm trying to limit early bye exposure as much as possible.
3: If I'm paying up, I need to have a geniune reason for doing so.
4: If no other parameters are fulfilled, I have to be reasonably confident that, barring injury, I'll make at least $150K+ from the pick;

Then a team structure looks something like this:

View attachment 2499864
Now, the big difference is between my earlier lineup, with McKercher, Houston, Newman, Bergman and Ridley all missing. I think the six fall in that 95-110 range, with various issues with health and role. They could all feasibly work out and sit in that high 100's range, which probably puts them at least breaking even, even if someone like Nas goes at 115ish, just because of the savings. Serong I see as okay value, but am I certain he breaks over 110 again? No - normally I'd take him on value though. LDU is another option, but I like Wardlaw as a breakout option who I have the feeling will take over the mantle as the #1 mid at the Roos. Sean Darcy is cutting things close. Will he be a full ruck share with Jackson, or will Jackson be a utility. Can Darcy stay healthy? Is Sam Draper going to be the #1 ruck at Brisbane? In the forward line, there is a bit more leeway to gamble. For instance, I could put Sid Draper and Treloar in the midfield, and pick up Max King (STK) (even though he's injured until Janurary, and Todd Marshall (defence but concussion risk I think), just because of Job Security and Role benefits. I could maybe take a risk on one of McKercher/Houston etc, and try to weigh up who I think has the best chance of hitting 110+? Jordan Clark is another safe, get what you pay for over the course of the season, 105 avg player. Could you get him cheaper? Probably. How much is that solid role, solid average pick worth, even if he's not going to be top 6 by average in all likelyhood? I don't know.

I think if you're picking an early bye premium player, you have to be reasonably confident that they'll outscore a similarly priced non-bye player by about 10 ppg over the first six weeks, to offset the extra rookie score you'll be taking on. Obviously, best 18 mitigates the risk somewhat, but generally speaking, everyone will have the best rookie scores anyway, barring outliers like a missed selection or benching the wrong rookie.

Knowing all this, can one genuinely look at a team like this, View attachment 2499875and think - yes, I can envisage creating a winning team from this structure. There'll be early pain, but by the time upgrade season comes along, there will be no stopping things, because not only with the cash generation outstrip everyone else in the competion, the cash reserves will be the highest, and the available options will be endless, because not only have we skipped the early bye, but we'll take advantage of an early blip in scoring because of settling in to the season, the magic number has adjusted, pushing prices down.

Say with the cash remaining, one could grab 3 more premiums off the bat. And say you nail the worst rookies, the ones that make $100k, and say that the premiums you pick end up falling about $50k - so you lose about $450k of extra value, on top of spending most of your cash reserve. But the benefit is - about 1000 extra points over the first six weeks (3*195 + 3*130), assuming you're picking bye-effected players who will score 115ppg. The question is, can you make up those lost 1000 points, over the remaining 18 rounds of the season, if your team value is $2m higher than anyone else. I think the mid-season byes hurt a little bit, if you get consistency. If you nail the ceiling options, like the rucks, maybe that warchest helps you instead. And just for clarity - 19 out of the top 25, and 22 of the top 30 most expensive players, have that early bye. The outliers are:

Gawn - he's up there in age now. New ruck changes - I don't think he's definitively going to be hamstrung, but I'm reluctant to spend up on someone with his profile.

Xerri - probably the ruck I'd be willing to spend up on, just due to the fixture - because I think targeting ruck fixtures are a gold mine.

Butters - gold early fixture. Helps that there's just about no other uberpremium midfield option around him without that early bye.

Brayshaw - who knows who gets the lion's share out of the Freo midfield. Young comes in. Does Serong bounce back? Does Jackson eat up some of the pie? Does Sean Darcy, indirectly?

Dawson - I like him, but he drops stinkers. His three lowest scores were between Rounds 5 to 9; prime for cheap upgrade; and he was decent value at $550k - $610k is too steep.

Jackson - I think the ruck rules probably help, but so many other question marks over role, ruck share. If Darcy goes down, I probably pick him though.

Zerrett - who knows; could be a 115 player, or could languish in that 105-110 range after the disappointment of not getting an off-season move.

Sheezel - everyone serious is picking him. No point discussing.

Even looking at the bye options, can I see anyone going 10ppg higher than their starting priced to average; over the first 6 weeks? Barring an outlier 170+, probably not. Maybe Jack Sinclair or Tim English could hit a 120 average early; but I think the most likely thing is that these players come into their own in the middle of the season, and that's when they hit their stride.
Click to expand...

What you describe at the start is what people commonly refer to as midprice madness.

It’s the risk reward of what if I can get a premium keeper massively underpriced. If it works they are the best value picks in the game.

If it doesn’t your either burning 2 trades to upgrade them or being stuck with 10ppp less then other teams at full premium.

In general you want as much money on the field as possible. Cheap bench rookies and all 9M on the field. Cash gen doesn’t typically offset early season losses fast enough to be worth keeping too much in the bank. 100-200k is about the max you want left over for corrections if you have more then that pick another premium

Now I love a good midprice team. Just need to make sure you count out how many trades you will need to use to fully upgrade your team. Typically 2 for regular premiums and 3 for 120+ guys

If you can get to full premium with about 10 trades left for injury it’s looking good.
 

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