Autopsy Round 3 - Saints v Lions

[Saintbloke]

We have completely butchered this list build and it’s not something that’s an easy fix.

Who has a weaker midfield than st Kilda, just have a think about where you rate our mids. Imo if it’s not bottom 4 at best maybe take another look.

We have some very good players, we bring effort and we’re well coached but you can’t overcome that glaring hole in the middle.

We played the defending champs, butchered a chance to jump them early, brought genuine effort and pressure until the inevitable happened. A great midfield got a hold of us and put us to the sword.

We’ll beat teams with less skill and resolve than Brisbane but we’re not going far without adding a couple of genuine A grade mids.

Going back to when we lost the elimination final to GWS in 2023, there was an obvious need to build a stronger, classier midfield to go up the ladder, but in 2026, it looks worse than then. Right at the start in our pre season games I could see our midfield wouldn't trouble many teams. Recruiting, development and coaching have been found wanting. I'm not looking forward to another treading-water season, or at worse, dropping a rung or two by the season's end.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Brisbane did the same though.

Don't tell me you didn't look at that and think it will cost us.

 

[pluggeranddoc]

We keep fooling ourselves that the snake oil salesman will sprinkle hus fairy dust and we will be a top 4 side!
How is his win rate this time round compared to Ratten's?

 

[ScrappyDo]

We keep fooling ourselves that the snake oil salesman will sprinkle hus fairy dust and we will be a top 4 side!
How is his win rate this time round compared to Ratten's?

Who cares..

 

[Sully111]

We keep fooling ourselves that the snake oil salesman will sprinkle hus fairy dust and we will be a top 4 side!
How is his win rate this time round compared to Ratten's?

Ross coached really well as far as game plan went.

It's just composure.

If we were a more composed team we could be 4 zip right now.... at least 3-1.

 

[saintbill]

Yea who cares they get access to a top 5 mid every year. What planet are you living on, is that you Fagan

I don't care. The system is the system. Maybe we should spend a little less time complaining and more time training.

The 2 games I have been to live this year, we have been dead on our feet 10 minutes into the last.

Is that the AFL's fault as well? We have plenty of talent and high end draft picks on the list, yet we remain miles off the pace. Sick of excuses.

We have no overlap run at all, our forward line is so unbelievably stagnant it is staggering watching it live. It's real basic under 12s footy.

Most of our goals are just luck through sheer persistence and effort. It's completely unsustainable.

 

[bergholt]

Coaches votes are a far more reliable indicator of who's valuable than AA.

I trust current coaches to understand who the best players are.

The AA selection panel includes:

- AFL execs who haven't even played AFL

- Ex players from the media. They're paid to entertain listeners, but some haven't been involved in the game in a playing or coaching capacity for decades.

- Female players. It's not sexist to note that AFLW is a very different game to AFL.

AA is better than the Brownlow but it's not comparable to coaches votes as a guide to the best players.

In 2024 Ro had 48 coaches votes, but missed the AA squad, while Xerri (37) and Cameron (26) made it.

Ro's had 195 coaches votes over his career, average 1.23 per game. Which demonstrates he's been a good ruckman over a long period.

yeah I agree about coaches votes and completely agree that he's been good over a long period.

but I think he's only been a borderline A grader, not clearly in the AA or best ruck in the comp conversation.

highest coaches votes years for rucks:

95+: Gawn 2018 (97)
90+: Gawn 2025 (92)
85+:
80+: Grundy 2018 (82), Grundy 2019 (82), Lade 2006 (80)
75+: Grundy 2025 (77), Sandilands 2010 (75)
70+: Goldstein 2015 (73), Xerri 2025 (72), Naitanui 2021 (70), Gawn 2019 (70)
65+:
60+: Gawn 2016 (63), Gawn 2021 (63), Blicavs 2022 (60), Cox 2011 (60)
55+: Sandilands 2009 (59), Jackson 2023 (58), Naitanui 2020 (56), McIntosh 2007 (56), Gawn 2024 (56)
50+: Marshall 2023 (54), Naitanui 2015 (53), Gawn 2022 (53), Goldstein 2016 (51), Jackson 2025 (50)
45+: Everitt 2005 (49), Kreuzer 2017 (48), Marshall 2024 (48), Sandilands 2012 (47), Darcy 2021 (46), Clark 2009 (45)

he was definitely thereabouts and probably should have been AA in 2023 but English had a good year (though barely got any coaches votes).

anyway, I was responding to the OP who said he should be pushing for AA. I just don't think he's ever been seriously and consistently in that conversation.

 

[pluggeranddoc]

Ross coached really well as far as game plan went.

It's just composure.

If we were a more composed team we could be 4 zip right now.... at least 3-1.

Same excuse trotted out after 09 GF, surely in sixteen years a new excuse can be offered!

 

[Sully111]

Same excuse trotted out after 09 GF, surely in sixteen years a new excuse can be offered!

It was valid then too.

 

[thekizzler]

To me it looks like we're primed for mid-table finishes for the foreseeable future. We'll probably finish around 10th this year, then maybe improve a little next year but then the decline of Wilkie/Sinclair/Marshall/Hill/Wood will counter a good amount of the natural improvement that we get from our younger players, who mostly look like becoming solid contributors rather than stars.

Hall and Nas should be elite players for a long time, though who knows if Nas will still be around after next season. I think Tauru will be very good. Windy and Owens will both play 250 games and have plenty of top 10 B&F finishes but they're not going to be AA level. Pou is starting to be a bit of a worry - I've thought that he could be a real difference maker but he needs to start producing soon. Unfortunately I think we aren't getting much return from a couple of first round picks in Collard and Travaglia.

Having somewhere between 2.5-3 mil per year tied up in a forward who doesn't play and a ruck who isn't top 5 in the comp for many years to come is going to heavily restrict what we can do with the list moving forward.

No

 

[ScrappyDo]

Preseason l had us pencilled in as 1-3 at this point, winning against only Melbourne.
Clearly we're performing below our ability with obvious issues that can be corrected which isn't a bad place to be, since as those issues are remedied it should elevate our results.
The coaches see past the problems and so do many in the media and many supporters. Some however can, and will only ever see the problems.

 

[Now is the time]

Ala most of the past 15 years

Well, over that 15 years we have not been successful as a Club because we have not had competition level class players.

Prior to that we Drafted the likes of Riewoldt and Kos, recruiting Gehrig and Hammill to give them cover over their initial seasons and we were successful (apart from premierships)

Over the 15 years you refer to we have not had that luxury so those we have Drafted have been charged with the responsibility of influencing the results of games from Game 1 minus the support of established "star" players (think Geary as Captain!!).

The side we put on the park yesterday included 12 of the 23 with less than 100 games of experience.

Windhager (78), Wanganeen-Milera (89), Flanders (92), Owens (75), Stocker (85), Carroll (27), Wilson (44), Phillipou (47), Tauru (13), Garcia (33), Hall (26) and Sharman (73).

And Stocker and Carroll were bought to the Club for depth, both out of Contract at Carlton so not traded for.

Versus, when it comes to Collingwood, GWS and Brisbane, all finalists from last season (and Brisbane off a bye)?

Then you look at the experience of those who appeared at VFL level (and Boxshall as the "carryover" player).

There is the problem we are working thru not only by Drafting BUT by recruiting the required experience (and class).

I particularly noted Lyon's reference to the Bye and that players will be available after the Bye - and in context of what I contribute.

So Macrae, Clark and who else?

Noting Howard got thru the game and did his job (but was on the pine for the last 15 minutes so hopefully that was cautionary because that is when Brisbane "got us" also with Sharman off).

The lack of height forward of centre was telling - so how far off is King because he is vital?

Then there is the class of Henry, which is sorely missed.

Which leads back to my conclusion that our first choice 23 is more than adequate, but after that there is no established depth to call on (and probably at most Clubs).

So we just cannot afford injuries to our best 23, not only for talent but also for structure.

I do not include Wood or Butler in my best 23 so there is required experience dropping back to the VFL for leadership.

Wilkie looked very ordinary at ground level, so hopefully that is down to injury which will improve.

And Garcia will be schooled over watching a ball cross the boundary line, which it did not costing us a goal.

 

[SG34]

Found it very interesting how we played the first two games compared to today. We were very safe coming out of defence and never really took it on. It was chip and switch if we had it on, or long to a contest. Clear direction change.

I think we've got ahead of ourselves with Nas a bit. He was still good today, but he's not having that game winning ability the way we are using him. We need to remember he's only had about 10 games as an out and out mid. He was AA half back for a reason. I'd like to see much more of a 50/50 split with him on half back. We so desperately miss his run and those one two links.

I was wondering about this very thing- would we see a more conservative and disciplined and structured game.

As for NAS, we were caught in a perfect storm last year, I think it can still work out.

We are feeling the fixture too.

First home game ant Marvell in the fourth week. Against the premiers. And then both Adelaide teams in adelaide? What a tough start.

 

[thekizzler]

Going back to when we lost the elimination final to GWS in 2023, there was an obvious need to build a stronger, classier midfield to go up the ladder, but in 2026, it looks worse than then. Right at the start in our pre season games I could see our midfield wouldn't trouble many teams. Recruiting, development and coaching have been found wanting. I'm not looking forward to another treading-water season, or at worse, dropping a rung or two by the season's end.

The same midfield that won clearances and contested footy against Collingwood, Melbourne and GWS.

Some of the diatribe on here is incredible. You would think we have the worst midfield ever seen.

I understand clearances and contested footy isn't the be all and end all of midfield play, but they are going okay.

I'm definitely not saying it can't be improved but your post is just spew, tbh.

Our main issue is quality of entry inside 50 - which the entire team is culpable for. We have struggled for quality entries in nearly all games.

Our second issue is not winning enough big moments in games. On countless occasions in the three games we have lost we got around 10 points up but couldn't extend that lead further.

Our third issue is conversion. We manage to not convert situations or dominance into scoreboard pressure... and then the opposition break our spirit with a goal or two.

Skill errors and decision making are at the core of all three issues. It's concerning that it doesn't seem to be getting better because that will stop us succeeding.

 

[puppy_dog7]

I will say this.

In 2024 Hawthorn started the season:
Rd 1 - 24 pt loss to Essendon
Rd 2 - 55 pt loss to Melbourne
Rd 3 - 36 pt loss to Geelong
Rd 4 - 5 pt loss to Collingwood
Rd 5 - 53 pt loss to GC
Rd 6 - 45 pt win over North
Rd 7 - 76 pt loss to Sydney

They were sitting 17th with a percentage of 69%

By Round 22 they were back in the 8, ended up finishing 7th and won a final against Bulldogs.

They were a young team getting belted and all of a sudden scraped a few close wins to get going and haven’t looked back.


I see a lot of similarities with us this year and our young core group. Playing well in patches and in all of our games up to our eyeballs, but ultimately falling short. It will click at some point for us. But it may not be til mid-year, possibly even late in the year or next year. But it will click.

 

[PJays]

anyway, I was responding to the OP who said he should be pushing for AA. I just don't think he's ever been seriously and consistently in that conversation.

Well I think Marshall should've been AA in 2023.

And he's had 2 other years where he was clearly one of the best rucks in the comp and should've in the AA conversation although not necessarily the final team- 2019 and 2024.

These were the 3 years before and after Ryder, which provides the basis for people's views that he's better off as sole #1 ruck. Makes you wonder if we'd never signed Ryder, could Marshall have been AA (or at least AA squad) another couple of times.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Working too hard for too little reward. It's not a fitness issue, it's a score conversion issue.

Fair. We certainly seem to favour working hard over working smart.

This approach from Lyon worked when he waltzed into clubs with mature elite lists already built for him but I don't know if his approach works without those pieces already put in place.

Our forward entries are just mind boggling. We consistently lose to teams who kick to leading forwards, meanwhile we just bomb it long and try to lock it in. But most of the time we're so predictable that an opposition defender takes and uncontested intercept mark

 

[AirWinmar]

He’s been playing with injury for about the last 3 years straight lol

But never been given a chance to get his body right. Even now when we have TDK and he is doing sfa forward

 

[Saintbloke]

Ross coached really well as far as game plan went.

It's just composure.

If we were a more composed team we could be 4 zip right now.... at least 3-1.

So a highly paid experienced coach doesn't do composed teams, just does a gameplan ?

 

[Miha]

I don’t mind the club’s approach up to now. Plan was to hit the draft for 4 years from 2021 then hit some FA targets to fill in the gaps.

The issue with that period of drafting is that we never had real top end picks to use in those 4 years. Looks like we’ve nailed the Nas pick, the rest we’re still waiting for some uplift. A little tank in a couple of those years, especially 2024 would have been handy

 

[Diehard Saint]

No sharman
No king

With a terrible tall fwd line

Absolutely no chance of happening

Sharman will hopefully be back for our next game. Bye next round.

 

[bergholt]

Fair. We certainly seem to favour working hard over working smart.

This approach from Lyon worked when he waltzed into clubs with mature elite lists already built for him but I don't know if his approach works without those pieces already put in place.

Our forward entries are just mind boggling. We consistently lose to teams who kick to leading forwards, meanwhile we just bomb it long and try to lock it in. But most of the time we're so predictable that an opposition defender takes and uncontested intercept mark

I actually think that's barely happened in the last couple of weeks. The first two weeks I agree, we were conceding a lot of uncontested marks to opposition defenders, but I think our entries have been way better since then. Deeper and more dangerous. I'd still personally prefer if we actually tried to hit a guy on the lead sometimes but I can see the rationale behind the current gameplan.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Don't tell me you didn't look at that and think it will cost us.

The exact same could of have been said for Brisbane.

It was 1.7 to 0.5 at QT.

 

[Hawker399]

Actually we're the 8th most experienced and 9th oldest list this year.

In other words, there are 10 opponents with a less experienced list and 9 teams with a younger list.

Some Saints fans are stuck in 2024/25. We went out and recruited older guys. We're not young.

 

[kosifantutti]

Harsh on a young guy but wow Tauru had a stinker. Missed from 15m out on a slight angle.

Then with all the momentum in the last, basically spoils our own player (couldn’t remember who) and they turn over goal.

For the life of me… I can’t understand why we don’t swap Pou & Hall. Pou can give us something forward and Hall needs more involvement in the game l, he’s a genuine gun.

Pretty frustrating loss, should’ve been up big early and then just collapsed in the last. Could easily be 4-0, but are 1-3. Sick of honourable loses, I’d be hoping we beat Port over there and build from that!

“Slight angle”. He was almost on the boundary. How did Coleman go from the same spot?