Have Richmond passed North and west coast

[txbyhull]

1: draft position

Who gives a shit?

A lot of people, it’s not a guarantee but if you look at a guy that was potential pick 1 for 2 years and a guy that went undrafted and got picked up 18 months afterwards, obviously 1 frames better than the other.

Surely upside is at least partially what someone shows after they are drafted.

You’re ignoring the fact he wasn’t drafted in the first place?

I assume this upside for CDT is based on him becoming the best ruckman in the afl? Maybe he gets there. Maybe he doesn’t.

The upside for CDT in terms of being a ruck is based on the trend of the position the last few years. The “Luke Jackson archetype”.

But to reach this possible upside you’re all talking about we are talking max Gawn or dean cox levels of performance.

The 2 greatest ruckman of all time? No one is saying that.

Gawn was pick 34 and Cox a rookie.

So I don’t see why draft position should have any bearing on “upside”. Josh Fraser was pick 1, Leunberger pick 4 etc.

All draft position does it confirm bias.

No one is arguing that great players cannot come from any pathway, but history does show a general correlation between draft position and AFL success. Are you seriously trying to argue the likelihood of getting an AA player from Pick 4 as the Rookie draft?

2 - CDT is 22 months younger. Again, so what? What does that have to do with “ceiling”. They are both kids with unknown upside. I’m not comparing their onfield returns yet, as Trembath is basically playing a different sport to CDT at present.

What a horrendous take. A 200cm 18 year old is going to perform worse in key position than a 20 year old. An 18 year old generally will perform worse than a 20 year old, solely down to physical maturity. What are we doing here?

3 - CDT is 200cm plus and Trembath is “only” 195cm with a prodigious leap. So a taller player automatically has a higher upside? Does Taylor Goad have a higher upside than CDT because he is 208cm and the fastest player on norths list?

another stinker. No one is saying the reason his upside is higher is because he’s taller. It’s the skill set for the height, it’s not something you see every day if ever. Being better at ground level than Luke Jackson as a junior ruckman is going to get noticed, given as I said before, “The Luke Jackson Mould” is all clubs want from their rucks these days. Harry Van Hattum is top 3 in the upcoming draft. Why? Because of his non-traditional ruck traits at 205cm. It’s not because of the height, it’s the traits in spite of it.

4 - CDT is a good runner.

Elite runner*

Great, I’d hope he’d be if I gave up pick 2 for him. So are lots of talls. I don’t know how his running compares to Trembath now but I can’t see it being enough to sway “ceiling” heights

You’re not looking hard enough then lol. 6:21 2km time trial, while it’s not top 10 every year, was for his cohort, not to mention running a 2.922 20m. Are you seriously trying to argue that he is not an exceptional athlete, or at least has an exceptional athletic point of difference, amongst rucks.

5 - CDT looks exceptionally promising no doubt. Trembath currently looks orders of magnitude better. There is a strong chance CDT ends up better. There’s a strong chance he doesn’t.

This “ceiling” crap comes down to 1 thing.

Draft position (as per your first point).

And that in no way determines anything long term

While it generally does, you’re only saying the ceiling talk is crap because it says your player doesn’t come out on top. It’s a fruitless discussion, as you’ve shown to ignore quite a lot of common sense and consensus.

 

[Mighty Eagles]

Anyone got a first or second round pick they're willing to trade? Asking for a friend.

 

[the big lebowski]

A lot of people, it’s not a guarantee but if you look at a guy that was potential pick 1 for 2 years and a guy that went undrafted and got picked up 18 months afterwards, obviously 1 frames better than the other.

You’re ignoring the fact he wasn’t drafted in the first place?

The upside for CDT in terms of being a ruck is based on the trend of the position the last few years. The “Luke Jackson archetype”.

The 2 greatest ruckman of all time? No one is saying that.

No one is arguing that great players cannot come from any pathway, but history does show a general correlation between draft position and AFL success. Are you seriously trying to argue the likelihood of getting an AA player from Pick 4 as the Rookie draft?

What a horrendous take. A 200cm 18 year old is going to perform worse in key position than a 20 year old. An 18 year old generally will perform worse than a 20 year old, solely down to physical maturity. What are we doing here?

another stinker. No one is saying the reason his upside is higher is because he’s taller. It’s the skill set for the height, it’s not something you see every day if ever. Being better at ground level than Luke Jackson as a junior ruckman is going to get noticed, given as I said before, “The Luke Jackson Mould” is all clubs want from their rucks these days. Harry Van Hattum is top 3 in the upcoming draft. Why? Because of his non-traditional ruck traits at 205cm. It’s not because of the height, it’s the traits in spite of it.

Elite runner*

You’re not looking hard enough then lol. 6:21 2km time trial, while it’s not top 10 every year, was for his cohort, not to mention running a 2.922 20m. Are you seriously trying to argue that he is not an exceptional athlete, or at least has an exceptional athletic point of difference, amongst rucks.

While it generally does, you’re only saying the ceiling talk is crap because it says your player doesn’t come out on top. It’s a fruitless discussion, as you’ve shown to ignore quite a lot of common sense and consensus.

So in summary. CDT upside is better because

• he was rated higher before getting on a list.
• he runs like 200cm nik cox
• he subjectively moves better than Luke Jackson (whose not even the best ruckman in the league let alone best player)

Now that I think about it, his upside is probably higher than Trembath.

I mean he’s taken 1 contested mark in 6 games, kicked 2 goals and gets less hitouts than Trembath, so I guess he’s all upside

As an aside, Trembath ran a 6:20 2km this preseason.

Taking 2 mins off his combine result

 

[Shueygod]

I mean he’s taken 1 contested mark in 6 games, kicked 2 goals and gets less hitouts than Trembath, so I guess he’s all upside

How was Trembath going in the AFL at 18?

 

[txbyhull]

So in summary. CDT upside is better because

• he was rated higher before getting on a list.
• he runs like 200cm nik cox
• he subjectively moves better than Luke Jackson (whose not even the best ruckman in the league let alone best player)

Now that I think about it, his upside is probably higher than Trembath.

I mean he’s taken 1 contested mark in 6 games, kicked 2 goals and gets less hitouts than Trembath, so I guess he’s all upside

As an aside, Trembath ran a 6:20 2km this preseason.

Taking 2 mins off his combine result

horrific rage bait, not believable enough

 

[Cyber_punk]

Richmond's current year is unfolding like our 2022/23 seasons. We had a reasonable second half of 2021 only to fall off an even worse cliff once the remaining senior players either left or were cooked.

They won 5 games last year, hard to see them getting close to that in 2026

 

[Cool Kangas]

Nope

 

[_DBF_]

Richmond's current year is unfolding like our 2022/23 seasons. We had a reasonable second half of 2021 only to fall off an even worse cliff once the remaining senior players either left or were cooked.

Hard to play 4 quarters against 27.

Happy with the effort considering the injury list and the deadset cheats in green

 

[My Tilly]

They chose to hit the draft hard thinking there were plenty of gems but it's not looking as rosy as what they predicted.

Lalor & Trainor look future 300 gamers but question marks starting to linger on a few.

 

[Former Decathlete]

They chose to hit the draft hard thinking there were plenty of gems but it's not looking as rosy as what they predicted.

Lalor & Trainor look future 300 gamers but question marks starting to linger on a few.

Trainor is playing VFL. He's just a maybe..

The list is diabolical. They are miles off it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

No Brendan Gale no Richmond

They are back to being a rabble again

 

[Former Decathlete]

Richmond's current year is unfolding like our 2022/23 seasons. We had a reasonable second half of 2021 only to fall off an even worse cliff once the remaining senior players either left or were cooked.

They won 5 games last year, hard to see them getting close to that in 2026

Teams always manage to win a game...

But id be surprised if they win two...

 

[north_lad]

Tbh I think they'll be fine, the sooner they phase out all the old bastards the better. Maybe shrewdly recruit a few old heads that have a bit left to give and guide the cubs through getting belted. The talent is there

 

[BrodeeKF]

Have Richmond passed North & West Coast?

No.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Watching your team lose by big margins each week would suck. But watching guys like Ryan and Ralphsmith run around must be soul destroying.

The biggest problem with Richmond's rebuild is that it's being run by the same guy that has Samson Ryan still contracted for next year.

 

[lalorGOAT]

Trainor is playing VFL. He's just a maybe..

The list is diabolical. They are miles off it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

No Brendan Gale no Richmond

They are back to being a rabble again

I bet you were whinging about how much better we were than the rest of the comp when we were winning flags for fun.

Now equalisation does its job and we are a rabble? Spare me.

 

[johnnymossop]

The way Dimma and Gale left the list is shocking. The Tigers are an embarrassment

 

["The Roar Is Back"]

The kids we have available can’t run hard enough long enough and the experienced players are plodders .
Our biggest concern is selection and coaching .
Balta being played in defence without being played forward and/or in the ruck for 3 years is mind boggling . Likewise hopper still getting a game ( despite injury list )
I think we’ll be ok if we can find a lynch replacement when the time is needed and some of the injured kids get a run at it .

 

[Chip Scab1]

Tbh I think they'll be fine, the sooner they phase out all the old bastards the better. Maybe shrewdly recruit a few old heads that have a bit left to give and guide the cubs through getting belted. The talent is there

We have more talent yet to debut. So no, the talent is not there.

They are a good club (these days) so around 2035, they'll be on the way back.

 

[sabso]

Tbh I think they'll be fine, the sooner they phase out all the old bastards the better. Maybe shrewdly recruit a few old heads that have a bit left to give and guide the cubs through getting belted. The talent is there

Mihocek was right there

Mason Cox approached us apparently to be a backup ruck on minimum chips and we knocked him back

Way better options than Naismith and koschitzke were, and we had a chance to make up for it by cutting our losses with the long term injuries and weak ass spuds

 

[Gavin Excell]

I didnt think Tigers were completely awful last night v Melb
Classic case of a young side running out of gas second half. Were competitive until then.
Not that hes a superstar, but Tigers are really missing the presence of Nank

 

[sabso]

I didnt think Tigers were completely awful last night v Melb
Classic case of a young side running out of gas second half. Were competitive until then.
Not that hes a superstar, but Tigers are really missing the presence of Nank

Fair assessment. Nank and balta would have been some combo vs Heath and a slightly crook Gawn.

 

[Rich01]

Tbh I think they'll be fine, the sooner they phase out all the old bastards the better. Maybe shrewdly recruit a few old heads that have a bit left to give and guide the cubs through getting belted. The talent is there

Phase out the old bastards but recruit more old bastards? Nah.

They need to find a way to fix their strength and conditioning and get players on the park. The best sort of ability is availability at the moment.

We had 5 players on our list available as emergencies last night (of which two of these are coming back from injury and will play reduced game time today). Get games into the kids. CBAS for our younger players in Lalor, Cumming and Macaulife are starting to increase.

We need to recruit more run through the middle of the field and of course a mature ruckman. Ryan is uncompetitive at the level.

But get the players healthy first and foremost.

 

[Frank Thring]

Y

Media has zero sympathy for Richmond.

Yeah I find this strange considering they've won 3 flags in the last 10 years and lost quality players over the last 2 years. Made the tough decision to rebuild so at least they know where they're at. My only criticism is that I would have spilt up all their first rounders a couple of seasons ago over 2 drafts.

 

[JackOutback]

Phase out the old bastards but recruit more old bastards? Nah.

They need to find a way to fix their strength and conditioning and get players on the park. The best sort of ability is availability at the moment.

We had 5 players on our list available as emergencies last night (of which two of these are coming back from injury and will play reduced game time today). Get games into the kids. CBAS for our younger players in Lalor, Cumming and Macaulife are starting to increase.

We need to recruit more run through the middle of the field and of course a mature ruckman. Ryan is uncompetitive at the level.

But get the players healthy first and foremost.

Getting the right mix of old bastards is as much an art as drafting the right kids.

 

[Rich01]

Getting the right mix of old bastards is as much an art as drafting the right kids.

Yup, I’d be ok with ponying up some draft collateral for a 23-25 year old experienced ruck but that’s about it.

I liked West Coasts strategy of using extra list spots on delisted retreads. A shotgun approach to get one contributor should be the aim. We should ask for this sort of assistance and do similar.