Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We're arguably the only club in the comp that chose not to have a mature back up ruck option.

The first game English missed, we didn't turn to Darcy or Lobb. We threw a kid to the wolves.

I don't think Emmett would have rucked more than Lobb over the course of the season.

In fact, in the Essendon game itself, Lobb went into the ruck before Croft did - we were happy to use Lobb in that situation. It's just that Lobb also went off in the 4th quarter.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

We're arguably the only club in the comp that chose not to have a mature back up ruck option.

The first game English missed, we didn't turn to Darcy or Lobb. We threw a kid to the wolves.

I've already spoken my thoughts enough over the past two weeks so I'll keep this brief. I can only assume that Sam Power saw Lobb as the English cover and he and Bevo weren't on the same page with it. Probably begs the question though that if you see Lobb as the only English cover (and potentially Darcy cover) and knowing he is a first choice key defender then why wouldn't you recruit a seasoned key defender to cover Lobb. I refuse to believe that he thinks Gardner is the answer to any AFL related questions coming into 2026

I thought the best option ahead of the Hawthorn game was to bring in Busslinger and move Lobb but I could at least understand the gamble knowing that the defense has been working and see if you can get away with two non rucks and try to read the Hawthorn taps. It was quite clear from early on that we couldn't get away with it and the only time we looked decent was when Lobb spent a real extended period in the third quarter rucking and we starting evening up the clearance battle. So the Geelong game I really don't understand. I can't imagine anyone with a sound mind watched that game and could convince themselves that an Emmett/Croft pairing was an option again. Even if Bevo thought it was the best idea, surely the assistants would push back and common sense would prevail

 

[Mojorisin]

I didn't watch the game but Marshall's stats look good from last night. Looks like he split the ruck with DeKoning closer to 50/50

 

[Mutt]

I didn't watch the game but Marshall's stats look good from last night. Looks like he split the ruck with DeKoning closer to 50/50

Last night Marshall looked exactly like the ruckman we need to support Tim.

 

[Marsy]

The thing I saw tonight, and it is something I notice in a lot of games, is how selfish our players can be. The amount of times I see opposition players shepherd in marking contests, when giving the ball, or when allowing a team mate to get the ball is crazy, then we have our team, and I just don't see it. Barring a few players, there is no mongrel, no desire to do the hard things that aren't glamorous because that's what the team needs. Freo did that a lot tonight, particularly over that 7 goal run.

Shepherding is something I wish our players would do more of. I have really noticed that our players will run next to a teammate to get the ball, but don’t even think to shepherd the opposition.

 

[Libbaaaa]

I didn't watch the game but Marshall's stats look good from last night. Looks like he split the ruck with DeKoning closer to 50/50

He is completely out performing de Koning. The 3 goals a bit flukey though, he’s a terrible forward.

 

[Chalky White]

Why? All of Buku, O'donnell, Coffield, Selwood, Williams, Jacques, Walker, and Cleary can play that role. We need an actual competent key defender to free up some of those guys to play that role.

They can attempt to play that role. Being successful at it is a far different thing

 

[VitalDread]

Cant remember if we have a 2026 draft thread
I wouldn't be shocked if Dogs bid on Swans or Lions academy players this year

 

[doggiesin08]

Cant remember if we have a 2026 draft thread
I wouldn't be shocked if Dogs bid on Swans or Lions academy players this year

Reason for thinking this? Players in mind we like or some other agenda?

 

[Mofra]

Cant remember if we have a 2026 draft thread
I wouldn't be shocked if Dogs bid on Swans or Lions academy players this year

With what though?

Possible Butters trade, El Souki bids, etc.

 

[BomToydd]

They can attempt to play that role. Being successful at it is a far different thing

Well not really because half of them are playing as undersized key position players. I wouldn't be bringing in any more medium defenders unless we get rid of some of them. We have other holes on our list too and there's only so many list spots.

 

[Unorth]

Significant amount of work to be done after this season, have to make up for years of list management malpractice.

Lost too much talent for nothing in return. Not saying Dunkley, Smith and Jamarra leaving is anyone’s fault, but ultimately we didnt get back anything close to what we lost. That kind of talent bleeding alone makes it difficult. Spilt milk now, but the impacts are being felt. You can’t really continually reset your list like this and expect to stay competitive against the sides making more serious moves.

Then there’s our failed attempts to chase key defenders. We knew what the issue was and went for Hail Mary attempts, probably because we know that Bevo would rather throw inadequate players that fit his vision to the wolves, rather than play someone that he was never on board to sign in the first place. And we protected Lobb, JoD and Buku as much as we could until the wheels fell off. The right idea, but even then, we only had to play that way because of how bad that trio is in a vacuum.

Then there’s relying on Emmett and Smith as backup rucks, but once again, what would the point of signing Mason Cox

18

Mason Cox

Age

35

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

have been? Bevo would never select him. We saw this for years when a young Tim was getting ragdolled every week. He’ll persist with his guys every time. When we flirted with, and decided against, the notion of Crossley last year for a reason.

And we didn’t necessarily have to sign a backup ruck with Lobb and Darcy on the list - but our paper thin depth made moving them into that position so difficult they barely count as ruck depth. Any one injury to Lobb, Darcy or English would have been (and was) to critically disrupt everything we were doing…unfortunately it ended up being all 3.

I do think we should throw whatever it takes at Butters. He’s that good, you don’t say no thanks to that calibre of player because you have needs elsewhere. He’s also a need anyway - our midfield is awfully slow aside from Ed, and looks really shaky without Libba (we shouldn’t be so reliant on Libba with his age and concussion/knee history, but we are).

We had a really solid run with Dalrymple then Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

43

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

bursting on to the scene with some incredible moves - it’s hard to understate the impact he had when he quickly brought in Treloar, Bruce, Martin, Keath and Duryea. Unfortunately that momentum slowed right down after 2021 and we’ve been very content to be stuck in a perpetual semi-rebuild that keeps us just competitive enough to avoid disaster but not ambitious enough to win even a single final. A couple of decent moves since but not enough to offset what we’ve lost.

It’s been said for the last couple of years really, and hasn’t happened, but when do we get aggressive around trying to get Bont some help?

With the Wilkie attempt we basically just wrung our hands and shrugged the shoulders knowing we were walking into a really perilous situation with our KPD stocks. If the Butters thing flames out and he goes to Geelong I hope it isn’t a repeat. There still so much work to be done on this list, sadly at this point there can’t be much confidence in how the club is approaching our lack of results. Culturally I think a big change within the club is required unless everyone is happy being the Ninthmond of the 2020s.

 

[Mojorisin]

Ran into an old player manager friend at the VFL today.
As I do I tried to get some info out of him!
He said he hasn't heard much on the dogs front except that we are throwing out a few hail Mary's at clubs best Key defenders again, namely Weitering. He also mentioned that Khamis likely leaves a contract decision until around trade period and will likely stay unless we get a top line defender across. Essendon we currently the club most interested in Khamis.

 

[bigbulldog67]

I've already spoken my thoughts enough over the past two weeks so I'll keep this brief. I can only assume that Sam Power saw Lobb as the English cover and he and Bevo weren't on the same page with it. Probably begs the question though that if you see Lobb as the only English cover (and potentially Darcy cover) and knowing he is a first choice key defender then why wouldn't you recruit a seasoned key defender to cover Lobb. I refuse to believe that he thinks Gardner is the answer to any AFL related questions coming into 2026

I thought the best option ahead of the Hawthorn game was to bring in Busslinger and move Lobb but I could at least understand the gamble knowing that the defense has been working and see if you can get away with two non rucks and try to read the Hawthorn taps. It was quite clear from early on that we couldn't get away with it and the only time we looked decent was when Lobb spent a real extended period in the third quarter rucking and we starting evening up the clearance battle. So the Geelong game I really don't understand. I can't imagine anyone with a sound mind watched that game and could convince themselves that an Emmett/Croft pairing was an option again. Even if Bevo thought it was the best idea, surely the assistants would push back and common sense would prevail

Yep pretty simple stuff, play the key defender we have on the list who is actually decent in Busslinger, when needed.

For some reason were so ****ing scared of playing Busslinger when he’s only ever played decent at afl level, that’d we’d rather ruck Emmett.

It’s just ****ing madness, Bevo is genuinely useless.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Significant amount of work to be done after this season, have to make up for years of list management malpractice.

Lost too much talent for nothing in return. Not saying Dunkley, Smith and Jamarra leaving is anyone’s fault, but ultimately we didnt get back anything close to what we lost. That kind of talent bleeding alone makes it difficult. Spilt milk now, but the impacts are being felt. You can’t really continually reset your list like this and expect to stay competitive against the sides making more serious moves.

Then there’s our failed attempts to chase key defenders. We knew what the issue was and went for Hail Mary attempts, probably because we know that Bevo would rather throw inadequate players that fit his vision to the wolves, rather than play someone that he was never on board to sign in the first place. And we protected Lobb, JoD and Buku as much as we could until the wheels fell off. The right idea, but even then, we only had to play that way because of how bad that trio is in a vacuum.

Then there’s relying on Emmett and Smith as backup rucks, but once again, what would the point of signing Mason Cox have been? Bevo would never select him. We saw this for years when a young Tim was getting ragdolled every week. He’ll persist with his guys every time. When we flirted with, and decided against, the notion of Crossley last year for a reason.

And we didn’t necessarily have to sign a backup ruck with Lobb and Darcy on the list - but our paper thin depth made moving them into that position so difficult they barely count as ruck depth. Any one injury to Lobb, Darcy or English would have been (and was) to critically disrupt everything we were doing…unfortunately it ended up being all 3.

I do think we should throw whatever it takes at Butters. He’s that good, you don’t say no thanks to that calibre of player because you have needs elsewhere. He’s also a need anyway - our midfield is awfully slow aside from Ed, and looks really shaky without Libba (we shouldn’t be so reliant on Libba with his age and concussion/knee history, but we are).

We had a really solid run with Dalrymple then Sam Power bursting on to the scene with some incredible moves - it’s hard to understate the impact he had when he quickly brought in Treloar, Bruce, Martin, Keath and Duryea. Unfortunately that momentum slowed right down after 2021 and we’ve been very content to be stuck in a perpetual semi-rebuild that keeps us just competitive enough to avoid disaster but not ambitious enough to win even a single final. A couple of decent moves since but not enough to offset what we’ve lost.

It’s been said for the last couple of years really, and hasn’t happened, but when do we get aggressive around trying to get Bont some help?

With the Wilkie attempt we basically just wrung our hands and shrugged the shoulders knowing we were walking into a really perilous situation with our KPD stocks. If the Butters thing flames out and he goes to Geelong I hope it isn’t a repeat. There still so much work to be done on this list, sadly at this point there can’t be much confidence in how the club is approaching our lack of results. Culturally I think a big change within the club is required unless everyone is happy being the Ninthmond of the 2020s.

Interesting analysis but I disagree with the bolded bit above - the perpetual nature of being in a semi-rebuild wasn't exactly how we approached the 2020-22 period.

A team that brings in Mitch Hannan, Stefan Martin, Adam Treloar, Anthony Scott, Tim O'Brien, Robbie McComb, Rory Lobb, Liam Jones and Oskar Baker across a 3-year period isn't rebuilding. It is by this logic that our overall list in 2022 was the 2nd oldest in the league, 2nd only to Geelong's infamous aging retirement home meme that won them the flag that year via their experience.

The fact that we've dropped to 8th oldest in the league in the 4 years since is more of a rebuild than that period.

We've plain and simply turned over a lot of younger players on our list since 2022. O'Donnell, Busslinger, Clarke, Gallagher, Poulter, Sanders, Croft, Freijah, Smith, O'Driscoll/Rypstra, Hynes, Jacques, Dolan, Kennedy, Sellwood, Walker, Carmichael, Emmett, Darcy is a big list of players that are young that we've turned over on the list, which has seen our average age drop like it has.

The theoretical upside to these younger players is that you should be a better team over the 3-10 year window rather than turning over your list. Someone like Harmes did a job for us over the short term in a 2 year window, but once they're gone, you're replacing them with an end-of-draft selection (Lewis). On the other hand, you're hoping that any one of the 18 year olds we drafted end up playing better than just what Harmes can provide.

We have list weaknesses now, but you have to take on weaknesses in the short term for a level of sustainability into the future. While it sucks now, we're always a small club that can't afford to get ourselves in the Marvel Tenant hole that has befallen the 4 other Marvel clubs over 15 years. Power and Bevo have set us up more in 7 year's time, for the 2033 flag, where they might not even be at the club at that stage.

 

[Pencil case]

I don’t condone tanking, but if there’s ever a year to finish lower on the ladder, it’s this year. Getting both El Souki and Butters will be impossible unless we finish bottom 10.

 

[Bald]

I don’t condone tanking, but if there’s ever a year to finish lower on the ladder, it’s this year. Getting both El Souki and Butters will be impossible unless we finish bottom 10.

I'm opting to exist in an impossible universe where we acquire Butters as a free agent, draft El Souki and swap our draft assets for a key defender.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I don’t condone tanking, but if there’s ever a year to finish lower on the ladder, it’s this year. Getting both El Souki and Butters will be impossible unless we finish bottom 10.

Trade our future first and our 2028 1st for Butters (plus a bunch of other junk 2nd/3rd round picks and a player or two). Keep the 2027 1st for a deficit for El Souki wherever the bid comes.

Not all that hard

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

I don’t condone tanking, but if there’s ever a year to finish lower on the ladder, it’s this year. Getting both El Souki and Butters will be impossible unless we finish bottom 10.

There is an important consideration to have that Butters' supposed infatuation with the club may not be enough if we miss finals. He is one of the competition's best, in his prime - why move to a team that can't deliver?

 

[Pencil case]

Trade our future first and our 2028 1st for Butters (plus a bunch of other junk 2nd/3rd round picks and a player or two). Keep the 2027 1st for a deficit for El Souki wherever the bid comes.

Not all that hard

Port would laugh at us if that’s all we offered.

 

[Guido]

and swap our draft assets for a key defender.

Why pay when you can get Butts for free?

Surely he's our #1 priority as far as KPDs go, rather than multiple firsts/seconds for a contracted or non free agent KD option (picks which we may not have depending on how the Butters situation plays out).

Unfortunately, as a FA KD Butts is looking at a bidding war, given his start to the season, whereas last season could have probably picked him up for $600k-$700k (with the cost of a first rounder though).

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Port would laugh at us if that’s all we offered.

And then do what? Send him to the draft?

Just like we were prepared to send Dunkley and Smith to the draft, right?

 

[TheHound]

What are the chances Port doesn’t match the bid on butters do we think? Or is it basically a certainty they do

 

[Distinctive_]

Assuming no discounts, and just to give a rough estimate

IF El-Souki is bid on at pick 10
We'd need picks 22 and 24

IF El-Souki is bid on at pick 15
We'd need picks 28 and 29

IF El-Souki is bid on at pick 20
We'd need picks 32 and 34

Id addition new rules state

• The allowable draft deficit will be reduced to 412 DVI points in 2026. To access this deficit, a club will need to hold a first-round pick in the following year’s draft. Any deficit accrued, regardless of where the bid is placed, will be deducted from the club’s first-round pick in the following year’s draft.

Will make bringing in both Butters and El-Souki a big big task for Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

43

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

and team.

 

[Bald]

What are the chances Port doesn’t match the bid on butters do we think? Or is it basically a certainty they do

Read my username.

The same chance I’ll wake up with hair tomorrow.