🌀 🌀 Tropical Cyclone Alfred 🌀 🌀 QLD / NSW

[rdhopkins2]

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now expected to make landfall in southeast QLD near Brisbane and is also likely to heavily impact north east NSW.

Given this area doesn’t typically see cyclones make landfall, it is imperative residents and visitors are on alert and should look to take appropriate precautions.

Currently a category 2 cyclone expected to make landfall at earliest Tuesday or more likely Wednesday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

If you have family or friends living or visiting the area please ensure they are following this.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/expert-warns-tropical-cyclone-alfred-to-make-landfall-near-brisbane-this-week/news-story/20867f59be12243e78c534626236f4d9

 

[Shell]

AFL to make an announcement about the season opener tomorrow

Probs play it in Round 3

Or swap with KP Round 15

 

[BigVic]

AFL needs to have contingency plans for Thursday

 

[Big Sauce 21]

AFL to make an announcement about the season opener tomorrow

Probs play it in Round 3

Or swap with KP Round 15

Round 3 would work. Unsure if they'd swap. Would have to jet out earlier than they would

 

[Shell]

Round 3 would work. Unsure if they'd swap. Would have to jet out earlier than they would

I want the season opener tho

 

[Gough]

 

[the_interloper]

I find it weird when people claim climate change is real or not real based on singular weather events.

 

[Gough]

I find it weird when people claim climate change is real or not real based on singular weather events.

How many "once in a hundred years" weather episodes have we had in the last decade?

 

[rdhopkins2]

Insurance is becoming harder for many in Australia. Some companies won’t cover areas at all (eg don’t cover an entire suburb or postcode) and others will will exclude things like flood, cyclone & fire etc. So it pays to sue your due diligence when looking at moving location.

Latest from BOM on TC Albert is that it’s likely to hit the Sunshine Coast or Brisbane on Thursday. That said, things can change.

Above all, I hope things people take the necessary precautions, and they are only that; precautions. I definitely hope they aren’t actually required as a cyclone event in an area not used to cyclones will not be pretty.

Fully expecting complacency here (these people will be the first to whinge for help), massive storm damage to housing and infrastructure. If it strikes it will be a total mess. At least in FNQ they are used to cyclones and people are more likely to take precautions, listen to advice, evacuate early or shelter in cyclone shelters. I love Brisvegas, the Sunny Coast & Gold Coast and it would be devastating to see those areas harshly impacted by forces of nature, compounded by those with a ‘it won’t happen to me’ attitude.

 

[the_interloper]

How many "once in a hundred years" weather episodes have we had in the last decade?

I'm really not sure, that sounds like a headline from the media though.

Weather trends are examined over years, decades and centuries, you can't just take one event and use it as definitive evidence.

 

[rdhopkins2]

I'm really not sure, that sounds like a headline from the media though.

Weather trends are examined over years, decades and centuries, you can't just take one event and use it as definitive evidence.

I agree that closer examination is warranted.
Have we had more cyclones/ floods/ fires than normal, in areas where said events are rare or never occurred before?

That said if we wait too long for evidence linking global warming to catastrophic weather related events, it could be too late to reverse the effects. I believe action is warranted now.

It only takes one major event for your insurance to skyrocket anyhow.

Eg if claims in Brisbane go from $400m to $3b, who will wear the cost of that. Home owners (building insurance), renters (contents), car, caravan, business owners in those areas predominantly. Or insurance companies deciding they can’t risk another claims hit in the area and not insuring areas at all or excluding specific events.

Anyway let’s get back to discussing TC Albert.
The global warming and insurance risks are worthy of their own thread though.

Mate of mine lives near Caloundra and they are preparing for a direct hit. Hope they are okay it goes without saying but their story will be interesting to hear. Hope the baked beans go down ok & they have good ventilation.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

I'm really not sure, that sounds like a headline from the media though.

Weather trends are examined over years, decades and centuries, you can't just take one event and use it as definitive evidence.

You can look at the sea temp graph over decades, it's getting warmer. That's why this cyclone was able to intensify from cat 1 to cat 2 this far south. Hopefully it doesn't go cat 3!

 

[rank and file]

I'm really not sure, that sounds like a headline from the media though.

Weather trends are examined over years, decades and centuries, you can't just take one event and use it as definitive evidence.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Those lines also show the path after the cyclone has weakened into a tropical low or rain depression. A bit misleading.

 

[the_interloper]

You can look at the sea temp graph over decades, it's getting warmer. That's why this cyclone was able to intensify from cat 1 to cat 2 this far south. Hopefully it doesn't go cat 3!

Fair enough, happy to hear about data based over longer amounts of time than one day.

So many internet dickheads using this event to push whatever climate agenda they have, it's so unimaginative.

 

[Frank Bunn]

I'm really not sure, that sounds like a headline from the media though.

Weather trends are examined over years, decades and centuries, you can't just take one event and use it as definitive evidence.

The 'event' ie Brisbane getting smashed by a cyclone hasn't even happened yet! It's a bit early to be talking about climate change. Hopefully it follows the path of most cyclones and dissipates as it reaches land.

If you are looking at sea temperatures and levels you need to look across thousands or even millions of years.

 

[the_interloper]

The 'event' ie Brisbane getting smashed by a cyclone hasn't even happened yet! It's a bit early to be talking about climate change. Hopefully it follows the path of most cyclones and dissipates as it reaches land.

If you are looking at sea temperatures and levels you need to look across thousands or even millions of years.

You'd think so wouldn't you, well brace yourself for plenty of rhetoric in the media doing exactly that.

 

[SparklingAle69]

Apparently south of the storm eye are going to be hit hardest by wind and rain. Looks like the Gold Coast and Northern NSW are in for a pounding.

 

[rank and file]

You'd think so wouldn't you, well brace yourself for plenty of rhetoric in the media doing exactly that.

Media vultures flocking in already,it's still 600kms off the coast.
Going to be a big event on TV.
Have a drink every time you see a reporter on the beach,with an angry sea in the background.
You'll be drunk till Friday afternoon.

Best case models I've seen are 45knts min 55knts max crossing the coast,roughly 85/105kmhr,still cause a lot of havoc but only Cat 1.
Flooding will most likely be of the charts.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

 

[rank and file]

View attachment 2240491

Storm chasers with the worst case scenario.
US navy met site that hasn't been gutted by
DOGE.
Fairly accurate.
Still 530ks off the coast.
Hopefully it keeps drifting south a bit and dies in the arse over the ocean.


Last sentence very scary,wherever it hits those people are going to get blasted.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Storm chasers with the worst case scenario.
US navy met site that hasn't been gutted by
DOGE.
Fairly accurate.
Still 530ks off the coast.
Hopefully it keeps drifting south a bit and dies in the arse over the ocean.
View attachment 2240548

Last sentence very scary,wherever it hits those people are going to get blasted.

Prepare for the worst case, hope for the best.

Both BOM and ZOOM track maps are now predicting direct hit for Brisbane.

 

[revo333]

I was on the Gold Coast for the end of year storms and floods in 2023.

Thought I'd be brave and try to watch some of it on the beach but lasted about 10 seconds and scampered back to my accomodation.

Interesting to go on reddit and read how people are preparing for it.

It's weird because if it ends up being a fizzer then people will complain that the predictions were not true and how dare the football got cancelled.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Media vultures flocking in already,it's still 600kms off the coast.
Going to be a big event on TV.
Have a drink every time you see a reporter on the beach,with an angry sea in the background.
You'll be drunk till Friday afternoon.

Best case models I've seen are 45knts min 55knts max crossing the coast,roughly 85/105kmhr,still cause a lot of havoc but only Cat 1.
Flooding will most likely be of the charts.

I remember them all flocking to Cairns for Yasi only for it to hit around Tully, Cardwell. The disappointment on their faces and in their voices was noticeable.

 

[Shell]

I was on the Gold Coast for the end of year storms and floods in 2023.

Thought I'd be brave and try to watch some of it on the beach but lasted about 10 seconds and scampered back to my accomodation.

Interesting to go on reddit and read how people are preparing for it.

It's weird because if it ends up being a fizzer then people will complain that the predictions were not true and how dare the football got cancelled.

Nah I won't be complaining whatsoever. Better to be safe than sorry for sure