2007 Departures?

[Vader]

With the 2006 senior list delistings now apparently completed (though no OFFICIAL notification has been given regarding the fate of our three remaining rookies) let us cast our eyes forward 12 months to see who we expect to be leaving then.

I know I'm going to get comments like "it's far too early to be starting these kinds of threads", but let's face it - it's not like there's a whole lot of discussion going on here this week anyway.

By the end of the 2007 season we will have seven players aged 30+ - Ricciuto (32), McLeod (31), Edwards (31), Bassett (30), Goodwin (30), Torney (30), Biglands (30). Brett Burton will be 29, with another five players aged 28.

Port showed us in 2005 that going into a new season with such an old list is fraught with dangers. Ideally, we would like to see at least two (if not three) of these players retire. Not so ideal is the fact that these are our best players and have been for a decade.

Retirements
Mark Ricciuto - The language coming from the club, both from him at the Club Champion dinner and Johncock in a subsequent interview, indicates that he will be approaching 2007 as if it were his last year. He will be remembered as Adelaide's greatest ever player. One can only hope that his departure is managed with greater dignity than Ben Hart's. The fact that Roo appears to be already accepting the situation would indicate that this will be the case.

Rhett Biglands - This is a big call, especially considering the fact that he won't even play in 2007 due to his knee injury. To a certain extent, his fate is now out of his hands and will be determined by the performances of Maric and Meesen next year. Should they cement their positions in the side, then there would be no place left for Biglands (other than "backup" ruckman) and he (and the club) would have to consider his position on the list. He is contracted for 2008, but this would not be an issue if he were to retire (rather than being pushed).

Jason Torney - His departure would be driven more by his inability to consistently get on the park, owing to the fact that he is one of Adelaide's most injury prone players. Certainly his 2006 form (when he did play) showed no reason for him to retire. Adelaide would be loathe to hang on to players aged 30+ who have a long history of injury.

Last Chance Saloon
These are the players who are playing for their careers in 2007. Fail and they could be out on their ear.

Scott Welsh - The club has made his position clear. He has to get his body right and play consistently well in 2007 in order to keep his position. In his favour is the lack of young forward talent coming through - though that could well change after next month's draft.

Luke Jericho - Most of us can't believe he's still on the list. The only defence I've ever heard for his retention is "12 months ago we were all calling for the head of players X,Y and Z - look how wrong we were". This pea hearted player has got to be on his last chance. So far he's had 4 years on the list for only 15 games (all of which were played in 2004). It's better than Matthew Smith's record, but not by much.

Kris Massie - Despite playing well at times this year, he is still only a fringe member of the team. I suspect that from now on he will always be only one bad season away from being delisted.

John Hinge - Many on this board were calling for his blood at the end of this season. It didn't happen. Hart's departure, together with Torney's history of injury, indicates that Hinge may well get a chance this year. Should he fail to seize this opportunity then he may well be shown the door.

Have I missed anyone? Feel free to discuss.

 

[*PAF]

Never realised that Burton was older than Tredrea and considerably older than Cornes.

 

[CrowMagnum]

Rhett Biglands - This is a big call, especially considering the fact that he won't even play in 2007 due to his knee injury. To a certain extent, his fate is now out of his hands and will be determined by the performances of Maric and Meesen next year. Should they cement their positions in the side, then there would be no place left for Biglands (other than "backup" ruckman) and he (and the club) would have to consider his position on the list. He is contracted for 2008, but this would not be an issue if he were to retire (rather than being pushed).

Don't think it's that big a call. After an ACL reco, it takes another year to fully recover and even then most players drop a notch. As a rule great players become good players (Rehn, Primus, Barrie Robran), good players become average, and average players become history. Rhett has been good to average at best, his age is against him and he never did have a good leap even before he did his knee - that's only going to get worse.

Another smokey to retire is Hentshell. I'd be amazed if he ever plays any meaningful football again after what he's been through. And even if he did, it would cripple him in middle age. It might be time to think of his future rather than the present.

 

[Vader]

Don't think it's that big a call. After an ACL reco, it takes another year to fully recover and even then most players drop a notch. As a rule great players become good players (Rehn, Primus, Barrie Robran), good players become average, and average players become history. Rhett has been good to average at best, his age is against him and he never did have a good leap even before he did his knee - that's only going to get worse.

Can't argue with anything there. I was one of the proponents of delisting Biglands this year, using some similar arguments. Guess the cost of delisting someone who had just signed a 2-year contract was prohibitive.

Another smokey to retire is Hentshell. I'd be amazed if he ever plays any meaningful football again after what he's been through. And even if he did, it would cripple him in middle age. It might be time to think of his future rather than the present.

I think they'd want to see what Hentschel is capable of before delisting him. Expect him to be given a 1-year contract and delisted at the end of 2008 if it becomes evident that he will no longer be capable of playing AFL footy. Tragic end to his career if it turns out that way.

 

[marvin]

As a rough and ready guide to how secure the players might be feeling about their place in the system, below is an average of B+F votes per game for everyone who played one or more matches in 2006:

Player                  Games                Votes/Game
Simon Goodwin 	24		8.1
Andrew McLeod 	20		7.2
Tyson Edwards 	22		7.2
Brett Burton 	16		7.0
Graham Johncock 24		6.5
Nathan Bassett 	22		6.5
Matthew Bode 	23		5.6
Nathan Bock 	7		5.4
Mark Ricciuto 	17		5.3
Robert Shirley 	24		5.3
Ben Rutten 	24		5.2
Trent Hentschel 19		5.1
Michael Doughty 23		5.0
Scott Stevens 	18		4.9
Martin Mattner 	22		4.8
Jason Torney 	8		4.8
Scott Thompson 	23		4.3
Brent Reilly 	24		4.3
Ken McGregor 	19		3.9
Ben Hart           13		3.8
Nathan van Berlo 19		3.8
Ian Perrie 	8		3.8
Rhett Biglands 	23		3.6
Kris Massie 	20		3.5
Matthew Clarke 18		3.5
Jason Porplyzia 11		3.3
Richard Douglas 3		2.3
Scott Welsh 	6		1.7
Ivan Maric 	8		1.3
Chris Knights 	10		1.1
Bernie Vince 	4		1.0
Hayden Skipworth 6		0.5

If you look towards the bottom of that list, allow some slack for those with room for improvement and those whose seasons were curtailed by injury, Massie and Biglands stand out as vulnerable, and the reason Welsh was offered a reduced contract is fairly clear.

 

[Vader]

Going by those stats, you'd have to say that Perrie is looking vulnerable too. At least he would, IF Adelaide had anyone to replace him.

 

[Dale Didak #134]

Can you give the Pies Meesen?

 

[bluesfan]

With the 2006 senior list delistings now apparently completed (though no OFFICIAL notification has been given regarding the fate of our three remaining rookies) let us cast our eyes forward 12 months to see who we expect to be leaving then.

I know I'm going to get comments like "it's far too early to be starting these kinds of threads", but let's face it - it's not like there's a whole lot of discussion going on here this week anyway.

By the end of the 2007 season we will have seven players aged 30+ - Ricciuto (32), McLeod (31), Edwards (31), Bassett (30), Goodwin (30), Torney (30), Biglands (30). Brett Burton will be 29, with another five players aged 28.

Port showed us in 2005 that going into a new season with such an old list is fraught with dangers. Ideally, we would like to see at least two (if not three) of these players retire. Not so ideal is the fact that these are our best players and have been for a decade.

Retirements
Mark Ricciuto - The language coming from the club, both from him at the Club Champion dinner and Johncock in a subsequent interview, indicates that he will be approaching 2007 as if it were his last year. He will be remembered as Adelaide's greatest ever player. One can only hope that his departure is managed with greater dignity than Ben Hart's. The fact that Roo appears to be already accepting the situation would indicate that this will be the case.

Rhett Biglands - This is a big call, especially considering the fact that he won't even play in 2007 due to his knee injury. To a certain extent, his fate is now out of his hands and will be determined by the performances of Maric and Meesen next year. Should they cement their positions in the side, then there would be no place left for Biglands (other than "backup" ruckman) and he (and the club) would have to consider his position on the list. He is contracted for 2008, but this would not be an issue if he were to retire (rather than being pushed).

Jason Torney - His departure would be driven more by his inability to consistently get on the park, owing to the fact that he is one of Adelaide's most injury prone players. Certainly his 2006 form (when he did play) showed no reason for him to retire. Adelaide would be loathe to hang on to players aged 30+ who have a long history of injury.

Last Chance Saloon
These are the players who are playing for their careers in 2007. Fail and they could be out on their ear.

Scott Welsh - The club has made his position clear. He has to get his body right and play consistently well in 2007 in order to keep his position. In his favour is the lack of young forward talent coming through - though that could well change after next month's draft.

Luke Jericho - Most of us can't believe he's still on the list. The only defence I've ever heard for his retention is "12 months ago we were all calling for the head of players X,Y and Z - look how wrong we were". This pea hearted player has got to be on his last chance. So far he's had 4 years on the list for only 15 games (all of which were played in 2004). It's better than Matthew Smith's record, but not by much.

Kris Massie - Despite playing well at times this year, he is still only a fringe member of the team. I suspect that from now on he will always be only one bad season away from being delisted.

John Hinge - Many on this board were calling for his blood at the end of this season. It didn't happen. Hart's departure, together with Torney's history of injury, indicates that Hinge may well get a chance this year. Should he fail to seize this opportunity then he may well be shown the door.

Have I missed anyone? Feel free to discuss.

Mark Ricciuto - I agree with you, I think that 2007 will be Roo's last. He has been one of my favourite players for a very long time and from my perspective, he is one of the best, most professional and legend of football not only of the game but with the Adelaide Footy Club. I think that he should play FF for you guys in 2007 and dominate in that area.

Rhett Biglands - It's a very unfortunate situation that Rhett is in. In fact, it is very similar to what Hudson did in the 2005 finals. Hopefully for his sake that he can come back as good as ever but there would be reason for concern with others stepping up - Meeson, Maric, Hudson and the developing Griffin.

Jason Torney - I think that Jason is in the same situation as Mark (Ricciuto). There is no doubt that he has had some terrific games this year when he's played. The trouble with him is that, like many, is injury-prone. I believe that he is one of the most underrated players in the competition. The former Tiger will replace Ben Hart's position in the backline in 2007.

Scott Welsh - I find the former Roo a very frustrating player. 2005 was a breakthrough year for him but again fell down with injury this year (2006) which started way back in the pre-season. But when he's hot, he is a very good player but when he's cold and out, he is very average. Must agree with your point that he would benefit with another big, powerful forward though. I would suggest that Perrie will play a huge role in 2007.

Luke Jericho - Like many, I would've thought he was the first to get delisted. I think that he should have. It's similar to the Luke Livingston situation at my club, Carlton. I think that they should've got rid of him at the end of last year (2005), but they decided to give him a new contract!!! I was furious!! I just didn't know what on earth they saw in the bloke, they play him as a FB but he's not even big enough for FB. Jericho must go, it's as simple as that. By the way, just to let you know that getting rid of first-year tall Alan Obst is a joke by your club.

Kris Massie - The former Blue had a fairly decent year by my observations but I don't know whether he can back that up in 2007. Injury and form can really hampen him. My gut feeling is that he'll be at the crossroads coming into 2007and if he doesn't improve on 2006 he will be gone at year's end.

John Hinge - Don't know enough about him but sounds like a good developing prospect for you guys.