Is it too early to be doing one of these? I haven't done my AFL ladder yet because i am still waiting on the drafts etc, but most of the NRL teams are fairly settled, and I don't think the draw will influence things too much (you only play 4 teams once, and the rest twice). So here is my prediction:
1. Melbourne Storm - can't see much change here after finishing 8 points clear of second in 2006. Inglis will probably be moved closer to the action, which is great for all concerned. They have lost a couple of players, but look at who left last year. The most disciplined and well-coached side in the comp.
2. Canterbury Bulldogs - once again, i can't see too much changing at the top. The dogs also finished 8 points clear of 3rd, even with their problems in the halves through the year. A fully fit trio of Mason, Shrek, and SBW is frightening to all other packs. If Sherwin gets back to his 2004 form, they will be very hard to beat.
3. North Queensland Cowboys - they had a poor season - no one can dispute that. However, i think the addition of Smith is a huge bonus. He is one of the smartest play-makers in the game and will help Thurston out immensely. They looked unbeatable half way through the year, and i think they will handle the State of Origin demand a lot better this year. The loss of Billy Johnstone is a massive blow, but if Webb, Tronc, O'Donnell, Thurstan, Smith and Bowen all stay injury-free - they will win a lot more games than they lose.
4. Brisbane Broncos - even though they won the comp, i dropped them one place. They somehow found an answer to overcome their end of year "slumps" so it was difficult to place them this low. But Webcke is a huge loss, and i think they will take a bit of time to adjust. I predict they will be leading the comp before origin, before dropping down the ladder, but finding some form at the end of the year.
5. Paramatta Eels - another interesting one to pick. Will not play like they did at the start of the year under Hagan. Mark Riddell would be one of my least favourite sportsmen in the world, and frankly i hope the eels do not get close just for his benefit.
6. Manly Sea Eagles - losing Kennedy is a blow, but Manly are well and truly on their way back (to the disgust of all league fans barring Manly supporters). The inclusion of Jamie Lyon is the biggest of season 2007. I can't wait to see them play Paramatta.
7. New Zealand Warriors - who knows with this team? They could be minor premiers or wooden spooners, and few would raise an eyebrow. They have a very solid side on paper, with match winners. They had quite a good season in 2006 when you consider they lost those 4 points. They never seemed to recover from that set-back, even though they won a lot of games, and never really got thumped. Could be the surprise packets.
8. St George Illawarra - The last two places of the top 8 could have gone to a few teams. I have picked the dragons, although they could quite easily fit into the top 4 again. I just have a feeling, even with all their class over the ground, the loss of Barrett and Bailey will hurt this club.
9. Newcastle Knights - just have them missing the finals which may be a little harsh. I liked how they played without Joey last year in those couple of games, however if he misses large portions of the season, look out. Middle of the range team IMO.
10. Wests Tigers - they were the hardest team for me to place. They won't make the top 4, but without Prince, their side looks definately less potent. They desperately need Benji to stay on the paddock. It would not surprise me to see them in the bottom 4.
11. Gold Coast Titans - maybe a little too high but they have impressed me already with the way they have gone about business. If you want to play football on the coast, you will play football - it is not a retirement village or party venue. The acquisition of Billy Johnstone is evidence of that. Cartwright is a great man to have as your first coach as well. The concerns i have with this club is the fact their depth is not great, and if they lose a couple of key players (ie. Prince and Bailey), they could be in a bit of trouble. Also, unity may be an issue at the start of the year.
12. Penrith Panthers - another team i don't rate all that highly, but they definately have the stars to win games of football. Gower and Priddis are the keys to their season.
13. Sydney Roosters - I think this team is vastly overrated. I don't think season 2006 was an aberration at all. Anasta is a cat, they have too many cooks spoiling the broth in the play maker positions, and Gould still has too much influence. I have never really rated Anderson that highly as a coach, even though he has done some very good things. The return of Michiello is a bonus (that guy never plays a bad game), but i can't see them playing finals.
14. Cronulla Sharks - having a look at their playing list, i can't see where they are going to get their points from. Kimmorley and Vagana are overrated and they just don't have the strike power out wide. Their finish to the season was pathetic, and if the death of a favourite son at the start of the season doesn't inspire you to dig deep, nothing will.
15. South Sydney - for the past couple of years i have predicted the rabbits to finish around 12th because surely there is some improvement somewhere. I'm not making the same mistake this year (even with all of their new inclusions). They are an absolute basket-case and really need a culture change at the club. I can't wait until the bunnies play finals again, but that looks to be a long way away. There is always some team from the bottom that surprises everyone, however this team will not be it.
16. Canberra Raiders - i had them at the bottom of the ladder last year as well. They were the huge surprise packets of the season (there are always a couple), largely due to their ability to grind out a match for 70-75 minutes before escaping with a win just before full time or in Golden Point. Once again, i'm going against my heart and have them down the bottom. They have just lost too many quality players.
All in all, that was a very hard ladder to predict. I honestly believe teams 3-13 could finish anywhere on the ladder. Melbourne, bulldogs, Brisbane, Parramatta, and Manly will all play finals, whereas Cronulla, South Sydney and Canberra will miss out in 2007.
1. Melbourne Storm - can't see much change here after finishing 8 points clear of second in 2006. Inglis will probably be moved closer to the action, which is great for all concerned. They have lost a couple of players, but look at who left last year. The most disciplined and well-coached side in the comp.
2. Canterbury Bulldogs - once again, i can't see too much changing at the top. The dogs also finished 8 points clear of 3rd, even with their problems in the halves through the year. A fully fit trio of Mason, Shrek, and SBW is frightening to all other packs. If Sherwin gets back to his 2004 form, they will be very hard to beat.
3. North Queensland Cowboys - they had a poor season - no one can dispute that. However, i think the addition of Smith is a huge bonus. He is one of the smartest play-makers in the game and will help Thurston out immensely. They looked unbeatable half way through the year, and i think they will handle the State of Origin demand a lot better this year. The loss of Billy Johnstone is a massive blow, but if Webb, Tronc, O'Donnell, Thurstan, Smith and Bowen all stay injury-free - they will win a lot more games than they lose.
4. Brisbane Broncos - even though they won the comp, i dropped them one place. They somehow found an answer to overcome their end of year "slumps" so it was difficult to place them this low. But Webcke is a huge loss, and i think they will take a bit of time to adjust. I predict they will be leading the comp before origin, before dropping down the ladder, but finding some form at the end of the year.
5. Paramatta Eels - another interesting one to pick. Will not play like they did at the start of the year under Hagan. Mark Riddell would be one of my least favourite sportsmen in the world, and frankly i hope the eels do not get close just for his benefit.
6. Manly Sea Eagles - losing Kennedy is a blow, but Manly are well and truly on their way back (to the disgust of all league fans barring Manly supporters). The inclusion of Jamie Lyon is the biggest of season 2007. I can't wait to see them play Paramatta.
7. New Zealand Warriors - who knows with this team? They could be minor premiers or wooden spooners, and few would raise an eyebrow. They have a very solid side on paper, with match winners. They had quite a good season in 2006 when you consider they lost those 4 points. They never seemed to recover from that set-back, even though they won a lot of games, and never really got thumped. Could be the surprise packets.
8. St George Illawarra - The last two places of the top 8 could have gone to a few teams. I have picked the dragons, although they could quite easily fit into the top 4 again. I just have a feeling, even with all their class over the ground, the loss of Barrett and Bailey will hurt this club.
9. Newcastle Knights - just have them missing the finals which may be a little harsh. I liked how they played without Joey last year in those couple of games, however if he misses large portions of the season, look out. Middle of the range team IMO.
10. Wests Tigers - they were the hardest team for me to place. They won't make the top 4, but without Prince, their side looks definately less potent. They desperately need Benji to stay on the paddock. It would not surprise me to see them in the bottom 4.
11. Gold Coast Titans - maybe a little too high but they have impressed me already with the way they have gone about business. If you want to play football on the coast, you will play football - it is not a retirement village or party venue. The acquisition of Billy Johnstone is evidence of that. Cartwright is a great man to have as your first coach as well. The concerns i have with this club is the fact their depth is not great, and if they lose a couple of key players (ie. Prince and Bailey), they could be in a bit of trouble. Also, unity may be an issue at the start of the year.
12. Penrith Panthers - another team i don't rate all that highly, but they definately have the stars to win games of football. Gower and Priddis are the keys to their season.
13. Sydney Roosters - I think this team is vastly overrated. I don't think season 2006 was an aberration at all. Anasta is a cat, they have too many cooks spoiling the broth in the play maker positions, and Gould still has too much influence. I have never really rated Anderson that highly as a coach, even though he has done some very good things. The return of Michiello is a bonus (that guy never plays a bad game), but i can't see them playing finals.
14. Cronulla Sharks - having a look at their playing list, i can't see where they are going to get their points from. Kimmorley and Vagana are overrated and they just don't have the strike power out wide. Their finish to the season was pathetic, and if the death of a favourite son at the start of the season doesn't inspire you to dig deep, nothing will.
15. South Sydney - for the past couple of years i have predicted the rabbits to finish around 12th because surely there is some improvement somewhere. I'm not making the same mistake this year (even with all of their new inclusions). They are an absolute basket-case and really need a culture change at the club. I can't wait until the bunnies play finals again, but that looks to be a long way away. There is always some team from the bottom that surprises everyone, however this team will not be it.
16. Canberra Raiders - i had them at the bottom of the ladder last year as well. They were the huge surprise packets of the season (there are always a couple), largely due to their ability to grind out a match for 70-75 minutes before escaping with a win just before full time or in Golden Point. Once again, i'm going against my heart and have them down the bottom. They have just lost too many quality players.
All in all, that was a very hard ladder to predict. I honestly believe teams 3-13 could finish anywhere on the ladder. Melbourne, bulldogs, Brisbane, Parramatta, and Manly will all play finals, whereas Cronulla, South Sydney and Canberra will miss out in 2007.
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