With the lottery coming up in a few days on May 22nd, draft fever is looming. With 1 of the strongest draft fields in recent memories, the lottery will help to shape the future of the league. The odds for the lottery are below:
TEAM LOTTERY CHANCES (out of 1,000)
Memphis (250)
Boston (199)
Milwaukee (156)
Atlanta (119) (To Phoenix unless top 3)
Seattle (88)
Portland (53)
Minnesota (53)
Charlotte (19)
New York (19) (To Chicago)
Sacramento (18)
Indiana (8) (To Atlanta)
Philadelphia (7)
New Orleans (6)
LA Clippers (5)
1) Are there any teams that people particularly hope do or don't get 1 of the top picks in the draft? As I'm a Phoenix supporter, obviously I hope Atlanta doesn't land a top 3 pick, but other than that, I guess I hope that Charlotte, Boston and Milwaukee land the top 3 picks. Charlotte because they are probably my 2nd favourite team, Boston because itd be great to see 1 of the sports major powers back with a bit of respectability, and Milwaukee do give Bogut a better chance to do well (although Oden wouldnt be good for him).
Having said that itd be best for Phoenix if Memphis landed the other top 3 pick instead of Charlotte, just so Phoenix get the number 4 pick, but I think I'll be happy with any pick from 4-7 for Phoenix (theyre the only picks that are possible).
2) Without knowing the results of the lottery, it's hard to gauge who will be picked where. However, the top 2 picks are obvious. Oden and Durant are well above the rest of the group and will shape the futures of whichever franchise drafts them. I have a feeling most teams will draft Brandon Wright with number 3, although there may be a few that disagree have other needs that need to be addressed other than a PF. Particularly Al Horford will be a great addition to any team at C, and Jianlian is also rated highly and may be favoured over Wright by some teams.
My analysis of the main chances for the lottery picks in the draft is:
G. Oden (C) (likely number 1 - best big-man prospect since Duncan)
K. Durant (SF) (definite top 2 - had 1 of the best years as a freshman ever)
B. Wright (PF) (biggest upside outside the top 2 - likened to Garnett because of his lanky frame and he is only a freshman)
A. Horford (C) (had a huge NCAA tournament)
Y. Jianlian (PF) (great international prospect who could be better than Yao)
C. Brewer (SG-SF) (very good defender whos also improved his offence, had a good tournament)
J. Noah (PF) (dropped off a bit this year but a great inside defender)
J. Green (SF) (great versatility and doesn't have many weaknesses in his game)
M. Conley Jr (PG) (was Oden's PG at college who had a great first season)
J. Wright (SF) (likened to a more aggressive Diaw with good passing skills)
R. Hibbert (C) (very strong big man who had a good tournament)
S. Hawes (C) (young big man with great passing ability)
A. Law (PG) (good PG with amazing clutch ability in the last quarter)
A. Thornton (SF-PF) (athletic and strong player who can run like a guard)
T. Young (SF) (very young and raw but may be worth it)
I see it happening in about that order, although a lot may change with the lottery.
3) The thing I'm intrigued about is whether some of these players can have an immediate big impact on the team they're drafted to. Before the 2003 draft, could anyone have predicted the type of impact LeBron, Carmelo, Wade and Bosh would have on the league so early in their careers. All 4 are now among the elite in the league, have brought their teams from the bottom right back into the playoffs, and in Wade's case won a championship in his 3rd year.
Could anyone from this draft have this type of impact so quickly? If this draft is a good as it has been touted, then it will. Oden and Durant have the chance to become superstars as soon as they enter the NBA, and I have no doubt that their teams will be back in the playoffs quickly. If Wright can adjust to the NBA and continue to mature, then he's also got the chance to have a major impact, and probably anyone else in the lottery will have a big opportunity to become a star.
What do you think?
TEAM LOTTERY CHANCES (out of 1,000)
Memphis (250)
Boston (199)
Milwaukee (156)
Atlanta (119) (To Phoenix unless top 3)
Seattle (88)
Portland (53)
Minnesota (53)
Charlotte (19)
New York (19) (To Chicago)
Sacramento (18)
Indiana (8) (To Atlanta)
Philadelphia (7)
New Orleans (6)
LA Clippers (5)
1) Are there any teams that people particularly hope do or don't get 1 of the top picks in the draft? As I'm a Phoenix supporter, obviously I hope Atlanta doesn't land a top 3 pick, but other than that, I guess I hope that Charlotte, Boston and Milwaukee land the top 3 picks. Charlotte because they are probably my 2nd favourite team, Boston because itd be great to see 1 of the sports major powers back with a bit of respectability, and Milwaukee do give Bogut a better chance to do well (although Oden wouldnt be good for him).
Having said that itd be best for Phoenix if Memphis landed the other top 3 pick instead of Charlotte, just so Phoenix get the number 4 pick, but I think I'll be happy with any pick from 4-7 for Phoenix (theyre the only picks that are possible).
2) Without knowing the results of the lottery, it's hard to gauge who will be picked where. However, the top 2 picks are obvious. Oden and Durant are well above the rest of the group and will shape the futures of whichever franchise drafts them. I have a feeling most teams will draft Brandon Wright with number 3, although there may be a few that disagree have other needs that need to be addressed other than a PF. Particularly Al Horford will be a great addition to any team at C, and Jianlian is also rated highly and may be favoured over Wright by some teams.
My analysis of the main chances for the lottery picks in the draft is:
G. Oden (C) (likely number 1 - best big-man prospect since Duncan)
K. Durant (SF) (definite top 2 - had 1 of the best years as a freshman ever)
B. Wright (PF) (biggest upside outside the top 2 - likened to Garnett because of his lanky frame and he is only a freshman)
A. Horford (C) (had a huge NCAA tournament)
Y. Jianlian (PF) (great international prospect who could be better than Yao)
C. Brewer (SG-SF) (very good defender whos also improved his offence, had a good tournament)
J. Noah (PF) (dropped off a bit this year but a great inside defender)
J. Green (SF) (great versatility and doesn't have many weaknesses in his game)
M. Conley Jr (PG) (was Oden's PG at college who had a great first season)
J. Wright (SF) (likened to a more aggressive Diaw with good passing skills)
R. Hibbert (C) (very strong big man who had a good tournament)
S. Hawes (C) (young big man with great passing ability)
A. Law (PG) (good PG with amazing clutch ability in the last quarter)
A. Thornton (SF-PF) (athletic and strong player who can run like a guard)
T. Young (SF) (very young and raw but may be worth it)
I see it happening in about that order, although a lot may change with the lottery.
3) The thing I'm intrigued about is whether some of these players can have an immediate big impact on the team they're drafted to. Before the 2003 draft, could anyone have predicted the type of impact LeBron, Carmelo, Wade and Bosh would have on the league so early in their careers. All 4 are now among the elite in the league, have brought their teams from the bottom right back into the playoffs, and in Wade's case won a championship in his 3rd year.
Could anyone from this draft have this type of impact so quickly? If this draft is a good as it has been touted, then it will. Oden and Durant have the chance to become superstars as soon as they enter the NBA, and I have no doubt that their teams will be back in the playoffs quickly. If Wright can adjust to the NBA and continue to mature, then he's also got the chance to have a major impact, and probably anyone else in the lottery will have a big opportunity to become a star.
What do you think?
