List Mgmt. 2013 List Assessment

[winty]

In the 2012 AFL Prospectus, they assessed every team's list as they relate to Champion Data points according to position. They then grouped the players in 7 different categories - elite, above average, average, below average, poor, <5 games and rookies. Elite players were judged as those in the top 10% of position, above average in the top 35% of position, average as the middle 30% of position, below average as the bottom 35% of position, and poor was judged as the bottom 10% of position.

According to the 2012 Prospectus, those still on the current list (plus our 3 recruits) were rated in the following categories prior to the start of last season:

Elite - Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson, Enright, Taylor (6)

Above Average - Kelly, Corey, Podsiadly, Mackie, Stokes, Hawkins, Lonergan, Rivers, McIntosh (9)

Average - Varcoe, J.Hunt, Menzel (3)

Below Average - Christensen, Duncan, West, Vardy, T.Hunt (5)

Poor - Motlop (1)

<5 games - Simpson, Brown, Guthrie, Cowan, Murdoch, Smedts, Schroder, Horlin-Smith, Kersten, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Caddy (13)

Rookie - Bathie, Sheringham, Blicavs, Stringer, Burbury, Walker, Eardley (7)

I know none of us will have access to the CD rankings until the new AFL Prospectus is released, but how would you rate our list going forward?

For mine, I'd go like this:

Elite - Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson, Enright, Taylor, Lonergan, Hawkins (8)

Above Average - Kelly, Corey, Podsiadly, Mackie, Rivers, McIntosh (6)

Average - Varcoe, J.Hunt, Menzel, Stokes, Christensen, Duncan, West (7)

Below Average - Vardy, T.Hunt, Guthrie, Murdoch, Smedts, Caddy, Motlop (7)

Poor - Horlin-Smith, Brown (2)

<5 games - Simpson, Cowan, Schroder, Kersten, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Thurlow, Hartman, Stringer (10)

Rookie - Bathie, Sheringham, Blicavs, Burbury, Eardley, Walker (6)

 

[kilgour]

any system that has kelly non-elite is crap
he is the competition's best controller
whether the cats are trying to close the game up or attack is down to kelly

stokes' classification is even worse
stokes is the best clutch player in the league
his ability to score goals against the run of play is second to none

 

[winty]

any system that has kelly non-elite is crap
he is the competition's best controller
whether the cats are trying to close the game up or attack is down to kelly

stokes' classification is even worse
stokes is the best clutch player in the league
his ability to score goals against the run of play is second to none

I agree that their system of rating players is pretty flawed, but they tend to rate players over several seasons rather than just one for some reason. I was staggered that they rated Duncan and Christensen as below average last year, when both players played key roles in us winning the 2011 flag, but since Duncan played a handful of games in 2010 and Christensen didn't play any, both of them were marked down a fair bit.

I guess any system that rates Ben Reid as elite, but Lonergan as only above average is flawed, but I can see a reason why Champion Data have used statistics to rate players against others in the same position. Reid averaged 79 CD points a game in 2011, Lonergan only 53, but I know which player I'd prefer.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Before I think about the rankings, Horlin-Smith has had <5 games, and Stringer has had more.

 

[James1970]

any system that has kelly non-elite is crap
he is the competition's best controller
whether the cats are trying to close the game up or attack is down to kelly

stokes' classification is even worse
stokes is the best clutch player in the league
his ability to score goals against the run of play is second to none

Wha...? Matty Stokes? The little fella with the big heart? Love him, but he ain't elite, and is far from the best 'clutch' player in the league. To quote John Lennon about Ringo "he's not even the best drummer in The Beatles!"

On the past couple of seasons I'd have him where Winty has him placed - average.

 

[DanA]

My opinion would be in order of performance (left to right):

Elite - Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor, Bartel, Johnson, Enright (6)

Above Average - Kelly, Chapman, Mackie, Lonergan, Duncan, Christenson, Podsiadly, Rivers, McIntosh, Varcoe (9)

Average - J.Hunt, Menzel, Corey, Stokes (4)

Below Average - West, Vardy, T.Hunt, Motlop (4)

Poor - Simpson, Brown (2)

 

[Partridge]

For mine, I'd go like this:

Elite - Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson, Enright, Taylor, Lonergan, Hawkins (8)

Above Average - Kelly, Corey, Podsiadly, Mackie, Rivers, McIntosh (6)

Average - Varcoe, J.Hunt, Menzel, Stokes, Christensen, Duncan, West (7)

Below Average - Vardy, T.Hunt, Guthrie, Murdoch, Smedts, Caddy, Motlop (7)

Poor - Horlin-Smith, Brown (2)

<5 games - Simpson, Cowan, Schroder, Kersten, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Thurlow, Hartman, Stringer (10)

Rookie - Bathie, Sheringham, Blicavs, Burbury, Eardley, Walker (6)

I wouldn't have Lonergan elite; above average would be about right. In reality we probably don't have 8 elite players now. Hawkins, Selwood, Taylor and Enright are the four best to me, then the remainder.

I've bolded my main disagreement - no way is Taylor Hunt level with Vardy or Murdoch or Caddy, and below Stokes. He should be in the "Average" category. Not sure Rivers or McIntosh are automatically "Above Average" either - they've got to prove themselves first.

Otherwise, Horlin-Smith should be in those less than 5 games shouldn't he?

 

[DanA]

I wouldn't have Lonergan elite; above average would be about right. In reality we probably don't have 8 elite players now. Hawkins, Selwood, Taylor and Enright are the four best to me, then the remainder.

I've bolded my main disagreement - no way is Taylor Hunt level with Vardy or Murdoch or Caddy, and below Stokes. He should be in the "Average" category. Not sure Rivers or McIntosh are automatically "Above Average" either - they've got to prove themselves first.

Otherwise, Horlin-Smith should be in those less than 5 games shouldn't he?

Rough on Johnson who was again in AA consideration not to be considered elite.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I know none of us will have access to the CD rankings until the new AFL Prospectus is released, but how would you rate our list going forward?

For mine, I'd go like this:

Elite - Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson, Enright, Taylor, Lonergan, Hawkins (8)

Above Average - Kelly, Corey, Podsiadly, Mackie, Rivers, McIntosh (6)

Average - Varcoe, J.Hunt, Menzel, Stokes, Christensen, Duncan, West (7)

Below Average - Vardy, T.Hunt, Guthrie, Murdoch, Smedts, Caddy, Motlop (7)

Poor - Horlin-Smith, Brown (2)

<5 games - Simpson, Cowan, Schroder, Kersten, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Thurlow, Hartman, Stringer (10)

Rookie - Bathie, Sheringham, Blicavs, Burbury, Eardley, Walker (6)

Lonergan down to Above Average
THunt up to Average
Horlin-Smith down to <5
Stringer up 2 steps to Below Average

 

[Partridge]

Rough on Johnson who was again in AA consideration not to be considered elite.

If he plays a full season as a midfielder in 2013, and keeps his brain in place, he'll definitely be elite. Less smartarse, more basics please.

 

[FredLeDeux]

If he plays a full season as a midfielder in 2013, and keeps his brain in place, he'll definitely be elite. Less smartarse, more basics please.

What you get from Johnson is the icing of brilliance on top of the often unacknowledged basics.
He sometimes crosses the fine line between the brilliant and the smartarse, but personally I'm prepared to wear that because the overall payoff is worth it.

 

[Partridge]

What you get from Johnson is the icing of brilliance on top of the often unacknowledged basics.
He sometimes crosses the fine line between the brilliant and the smartarse, but personally I'm prepared to wear that because the overall payoff is worth it.

For look away handpasses in general traffic, that's no problem at all, most hit their target and when it doesn't work it generally isn't too detrimental.

But - trying snap shots from 30 metres out DIRECTLY IN FRONT that don't make the distance is unforgivable. It has a percentage of about 1% compared to a drop punt which has 99%. That is nothing more than playing to the crowd. That has to be eradicated.

 

[FredLeDeux]

For look away handpasses in general traffic, that's no problem at all, most hit their target and when it doesn't work it generally isn't too detrimental.

But - trying snap shots from 30 metres out DIRECTLY IN FRONT that don't make the distance is unforgivable. It has a percentage of about 1% compared to a drop punt which has 99%. That is nothing more than playing to the crowd. That has to be eradicated.

Yes, agree that we can do without that trick, because it doesn't work.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Yes, agree that we can do without that trick, because it doesn't work.

I am an advocate of Johnson playing % football , especially when he is up the ground where turnovers can hurt big time.
The snap in question looked very ordinary as he didn't strike it well - BUT it was accurate as it was marked in the square.
He hits it better and it's another 6 points.
SJ is a very ordinary drop punt goalkicker - have seen him miss plenty of gimmes.
I can actually understand the snap , after all we marvel at it when he snags them from similar distances from acute angles.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I am an advocate of Johnson playing % football , especially when he is up the ground where turnovers can hurt big time.
The snap in question looked very ordinary as he didn't strike it well - BUT it was accurate as it was marked in the square.
He hits it better and it's another 6 points.
SJ is a very ordinary drop punt goalkicker - have seen him miss plenty of gimmes.
I can actually understand the snap , after all we marvel at it when he snags them from similar distances from acute angles.

Yes, the problem he seems to have had consistently over the years is with the straight-on 30 metre shots. He has repeatedly missed them or had them drop short with snaps, mongrels and drop punts. He seems to always steer them rather than kick them.

 

[SJ]

Actually I would say Johnson is one of the best drop punt shots at goal from within 40 metres in the last decade at the club, if not the best.

 

[porksy]

2013

Elite - Selwood, Chapman, Johnson, Hawkins, Lonergan, Taylor, Kelly (7)

Above Average - Bartel, Podsiadly, Mackie, Rivers, McIntosh, Enright, Varcoe, J. Hunt, Duncan (9)

Average - Menzel, Corey, Christensen, West, Motlop, Caddy, Stringer (7)

Below Average - Vardy, T.Hunt, Stokes, Guthrie (4)

Poor - Murdoch, Smedts, Brown (3)

<5 games - Simpson, Cowan, Schroder, Horlin-Smith, Kersten, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews (9)

Rookie - Bathie, Sheringham, Blicavs, Burbury, Walker, Eardley (7)

2015 and beyond

Elite - Selwood, Hawkins, Mackie, Lonergan, Taylor, Duncan, Christensen (7)

Above Average - Menzel, Caddy, Vardy, Johnson, Varcoe, West, T Hunt, Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, Stringer (10)

Average - Bartel, McIntosh, Motlop, Smedts, Murdoch, Simpson, Brown, Cowan, Kersten, Bathie, Walker (11)

Below Average - Sheringham, Eardley (2)

Poor - Burbury (1)

<5 games - Hamling, Bews, Blicavs

Rookie - ????

 

[FredLeDeux]

porksy
You have Motlop in 2 different rankings for 2013, would you say he should be Average, Below Average or Poor?
Also, Stringer's not a Rookie, and Brown is not <5 games.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Actually I would say Johnson is one of the best drop punt shots at goal from within 40 metres in the last decade at the club, if not the best.

Well SJ, I'm only going on impressions and memories, but it seems to me that a lot of his 30-40 metre shots end up short because he tries to be too careful - as I said, steering rather than kicking. But perhaps it's just his mongrel punts rather than his drop punts.

 

[porksy]

porksy
You have Motlop in 2 different rankings for 2013, would you say he should be Average, Below Average or Poor?
Also, Stringer's not a Rookie, and Brown is not <5 games.

I know, I didn't bother changing the bottom sections from the original post.


Re Motlop, I think he will be average in 2013

 

[FredLeDeux]

I know, I didn't bother changing the bottom sections from the original post.


Re Motlop, I think he will be average in 2013

Personally, I think you're a bit optimistic (at least on exposed form) about some of your 2015 Above Average and Elite ratings, but it's all a matter of opinion.
I am interested, however, to know why you think Mackie will jump to the Elite level over the next 2 seasons, as he moves into his 30s.

 

[porksy]

Personally, I think you're a bit optimistic (at least on exposed form) about some of your 2015 Above Average and Elite ratings, but it's all a matter of opinion.
I am interested, however, to know why you think Mackie will jump to the Elite level over the next 2 seasons, as he moves into his 30s.

As other players retire, Mackie will become our most important back IMO. He is the type of player to grab that opportunity with both hands, and his body rarely lets him down nowadays. Still as fresh as a teenager at this rate, he should be fine in his 30s.

 

[catswhiskers]

Actually I would say Johnson is one of the best drop punt shots at goal from within 40 metres in the last decade at the club, if not the best.

I think Steve has lost confidence in the drop punt up to 40m out. Watching a few replays of the early season games games 2012 he missed a couple then he turned to the snap in the same situations. He seems much more comfortable going around the corner now.

The issue is will the umpires enforce the 5m rule allowing snaps to be used. The further the season went last year the more umpires allowed the goal shooter (Hawkins/Johnson etc ) no lee way and the player off the mark to move as soon as the kicker lent forward.The call should not occur until the first step (foot) is planted.

Another conspiracy! and I hope the GFC have got clarity on this one for this year.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I think Steve has lost confidence in the drop punt up to 40m out. Watching a few replays of the early season games games 2012 he missed a couple then he turned to the snap in the same situations. He seems much more comfortable going around the corner now.

The issue is will the umpires enforce the 5m rule allowing snaps to be used. The further the season went last year the more umpires allowed the goal shooter (Hawkins/Johnson etc ) no lee way and the player off the mark to move as soon as the kicker lent forward.The call should not occur until the first step (foot) is planted.

Another conspiracy! and I hope the GFC have got clarity on this one for this year.

We need to persuade the umps that it's Johnno's "natural arc".

 

[you pick one]

Any one considered Johnsons body,he has Hip Knee and Ankle injuries on top of running like a crab all his life,may be just may be kicking across the body is what's most comfortable now and helping to keep him on the track,a player not possessing his natural talent may have been already forced into retirement.
Short 3/4 distance kicks across the body is all I could manage for the last 3 years of my footy.