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2014 Reality Check

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kelvin_sheedy

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I think we've been hoodwinked by a few good games and some Bomber love on TV in the early rounds. If we break it down and look at how we've gone then we are bottom 6 material.

NAB - 3 poor losses.
North - Scott got outcoached and let us chip all game and hold the ball. Would't happen tomorrow
Hawks - Poor first half, Ryder subbed, small faster forward structure and then we start to play a bit better.
Carlton - Good win but the Blues could barely get out of a job at this stage. Carlsise ruck, small forward line,
Freo - We got smashed
Saints - We we embarrassed by the wooden spoon favourites.
Collingwood - Started well, but then stopped for the rest of the game. Kicked 3 goals in 3 quarters
Doggies - Held on for dear life against a bottom 4 side and couldn't get a goal for over a quarter
Brisbane - Held on for dear life against a bottom 4 side and couldn't kick 10 goals.

Our results,form, attitude and everything so far this year is bottom 6 footy. I cannot share optimism by Bomber that we'll come good in the second half of the year.

There is no way known we can have a slow big forward line in the modern game. We've only had 1 decent game this year (North) with Daniher and Carlilse forward. Add Goddard, chapman, Winderlich and there is no pace or manic pressure.

If we continue with the same structure we won't win more than 8 games this year.
 
In the off-season, I hoped we'd build on our strong first-half of 2013 and make it more into a full season and maybe go a couple of weeks into finals, finishing between 3-7.

In the pre-season, I thought we looked horrible but didn't give it much attention, as it is pre-season, but pushed down negative thoughts of how poor forward transitions were.

Within the first three rounds, ignoring the first half against the Hawks, I thought we looked like Top 4 material, with some blokes to come in the side and a few debutants looking great.

By last week, I had certainly lost hope of Top 4 and only thought of pinching 8th...maybe.

Today, I feel that we haven't fired our last shots for 2014 - as it would've been easy to capitulate to the Swans and lose by 100 with all the adjudication favouring the opponent and lacking run. I think the bye will be very useful for us, and we can freshen up for an assault on the second half of the season, which is signifcantly assisted by the fixture we have coming up. There are no 'easy' wins for us at this stage, but the draw in the next 5 weeks is as good as you could ask for. 4-5 is not fatal, though a bit precarious. The lack of consistency from basically everyone bar Port Adelaide means we are still in the hunt, though particularly North's slip-up to GC, and Coll's loss to Adelaide. Of couse, it means GC and Adelaide are also in the hunt. But better for us a logjam from 4-10 than us chasing a pack of teams from 4-7 that have a few wins in hand over us.

Now is not the time to lose hope, but to reload and cheer for a Brisbane 2001 run to finish the season. Or North in 2012 or whenever it was they charged home.
In terms of gameplay, we've shown when we're on we can actually match it with Hawthorn and Sydney, and can put away teams (North, Carlton). We seem to have limped through to the bye, which may have been the plan all along - rather than limping into finals.

That said, I have to concede that my justifiably lofty early-season expectations are now somewhat diminished, and I accept that we are not at the level I hoped we were at. If we were, we would not lose by 50 to Sydney, and would comfortably account for Saints, Dogs and Brisbane, given their relative form and states. This is the reality check. We are not good enough to just 'will' the win as Geelong have done for so long, and we don't have that aura or psychology of certain success that is required - and mentioned by another on another thread.

If the players were sooking on the field, showing disinterest and no self-belief, then I would be throughly incensed and upset. Given they are sticking to the task for now, albeit in an unfashionable manner (not necessarily a jibe at Hurley's hair), I will hold out some while longer and stay the course. But we are due for a substantial turn of form, and we saw an increase against the Swans, but the next month will tell all about 2014.
 
18 of our 32 quarters this year have seen us score 2 goals or less. Something must change in the forward line
 

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The world isn't ending. We shouldn't have lost to St. Kilda, but other than that, what are the bad losses? To the reigning premiers? To the other Grand Finalist? To two sides that will be challenging for top 4? We all expected to lose comfortably to Sydney, and we did, last week we weren't saying that we'll miss out on finals. An expected loss. We'll win our next 4 and all of you will be eating your words
 
where's the reality check? Didn't everyone know that our forward line had serious issues coming into the season?

I'll admit it's been worse than i expected, but get it working and we just straight into the top 4
 
Bomber is either putting us through the hardest training load imaginable - and keeping it secret - or we are a dreadful team with a predictable game plan. They are the only two ways to justify the way we play football right now.

To the extent that there has been a reality check it would come from the fact that we won a disproportionately high number of close games last season that could have gone either way. Based on that you could argue that our record flattered us and we were close to being a 50 per cent team.

The improve - if it is to come - must originate through the midfield. We need to be more proactive, with greater spread from the contest, blocking for teammates and faster ball movement. For all the talk that our forward line has been poor - and make no mistake it's been ordinary - there is very little discussion about the extent to which a well-functioning forward line depends on a well-functioning midfield.

Our next four games should be regarded as winnable so we could put ourselves in a good place before playing Geelong in round 15. But on present form we are no certainty to beat any team.
 
Some people STILL need a further reality check unfortunately. Booking the next 4 games in as wins at this point in time is some seriously delusional shit and very concerning. Are they winnable? YES... Are they certainties NO. Crap performances against Saints, Dogs, Lions, Pies and the Swans.. and people are still treating other teams with no respect. So sad.
 

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calyam said:
Bomber is either putting us through the hardest training load imaginable - and keeping it secret - or we are a dreadful team with a predictable game plan. They are the only two ways to justify the way we play football right now.

To the extent that there has been a reality check it would come from the fact that we won a disproportionately high number of close games last season that could have gone either way. Based on that you could argue that our record flattered us and we were close to being a 50 per cent team.

The improve - if it is to come - must originate through the midfield. We need to be more proactive, with greater spread from the contest, blocking for teammates and faster ball movement. For all the talk that our forward line has been poor - and make no mistake it's been ordinary - there is very little discussion about the extent to which a well-functioning forward line depends on a well-functioning midfield.

Our next four games should be regarded as winnable so we could put ourselves in a good place before playing Geelong in round 15. But on present form we are no certainty to beat any team.
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Including the four emotion charged victories against West Coast, Freo and Carlton x 2 as any indicator of our quality tends to mislead.
 
Putrid. Weak. Insipid. Heartless. Pathetic. :rainbow:Essendon 2014:rainbow: $$Don the Cash$$
 
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I wouldn't be hitting the panic button just yet. We've played some really good footy and some really woeful footy. The two obvious issues are our forward line and general intensity around the contest. Yet to see us play a game this season with our hearts on our sleeve all or nothing approach and that was when we played our best footy last year.
 

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Jack Package said:
where's the reality check? Didn't everyone know that our forward line had serious issues coming into the season?

I'll admit it's been worse than i expected, but get it working and we just straight into the top 4
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This. We all knew our forward line was our biggest problem.
 
Meh - I think we're well placed now.

Fully expect to win 12+ as a minimum.
 
Jade said:
Meh - I think we're well placed now.

Fully expect to win 12+ as a minimum.
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Yep, I have us gettinga 13-9 record. FWIW:

Tigers W, Demons W, GWS W, Crows 50/50 (W due to at home), Cats L, PA 50/50 (due to our good recent record, but L), Pies 50/50 (L due to poor record), Dogs W, Swans L, Tigers W, WC W (due to poor away record), GC 50/50 (W due to them tapering out possibly), Carlton W.
 
Let's be honest, scraping into the finals and not losing by more than 12 goals in an EF would be greater progress than the last decade.

Whoever mentioned it earlier is right though, the next month will go a long way to determining Essendon's fortunes for 2014.
 

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