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2015 - AFL Round 20
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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csnody
Team Captain
- Jul 10, 2015
- 329
- 314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
This is easy money. May as well put all my money on it. All $400 of my centrelink money on it.
Invincible_X
Draftee
- Aug 13, 2015
- 14
- 2
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Hi guys,
I'm new with these betting rules, basically playing H2H and over/under.
I saw total 5way option for Hawthorne and cats match something like
1-150 4.5
150-175 3.0
Is this total score of both teams?
If yes then is it wise to place $200 on first two options.
I know am a noob so any help will be appreciated.
I'm new with these betting rules, basically playing H2H and over/under.
I saw total 5way option for Hawthorne and cats match something like
1-150 4.5
150-175 3.0
Is this total score of both teams?
If yes then is it wise to place $200 on first two options.
I know am a noob so any help will be appreciated.
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Without looking im sure you could get better odds for just under 175.5 some where
But yes its the total for both teams combined
Invincible_X
Draftee
- Aug 13, 2015
- 14
- 2
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I just wanted to be sure if I understand it correctly, first two options look good to me.
Attachments
Outlay of $400
Even if you win and the final score is 170 your return is $600. You are only getting odds of $1.50 on under 175.5.
The line total (Under 180.5) is $1.88.
Actually I think you might be trolling, Hawthorne?
If I was rich I'd put a lot on them, yes
Adding Swans Pies under 169.5
Why dont you put some of your money on the mighty bombers? Might as well if they have a chance of winning
Are you putting anything on Essendon? Surely you are, they're a chance to win this week
i am, but that's neither here nor there (and i expect adelaide to win, just think essendon are a >25% chance)
if you have a 100% chance of something happening and you get offered $1.29 for it and don't take it, you are a fool
so either you are a fool or essendon are not "0 chance" to beat adelaide
You expect Adelaide to win, but your putting money on Essendon?
correct, is this concept difficult for you
Yeah it is to be honest
i see, not super surprising
back to the original question, are you confirming you are a fool, are you confirming you are putting everything have on adelaide at $1.29, or are you confirming your "essendon are 0 chance" post was misguided
Where's Manila? Only way this thread could get any worse right now.
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It's essentially this strategy:
Who you think is going to win should not make the slightest difference to who you bet on.
That isn’t to say you should never bet on who you think is going to win, it means that you shouldn’t bet on a team just because you think they will probably win. Consider tossing a biased coin. It lands heads 90% of the time, and tails the other 10%. Now if I offer you some odds, do you know which way you will bet? If your answer is anything but “I can’t make a decision until I see the odds”, then you should think twice about gambling.
In order to profit from gambling we need to bet on the team which has favourable odds. As discussed above, this is not necessarily the favourite – in fact, a lot of the time the model will suggest betting on the underdog. For this strategy to work, bets and bet sizes must be chosen carefully. The way to choose how much to bet is,
Bet on the team with odds that will make profit in the long-run.
For instance, suppose Essendon are playing Carlton. Essendon have been traveling well, while Carlton are struggling to find form. The model gives Essendon a 70% chance to win the match, and Carlton a 30% chance. The bookmakers, however, think Essendon are an even better chance than that. They will only pay $1.22 for an Essendon win, and $4.88 for a Carlton win. In this case it is more favourable for us to bet on Carlton, even though we think Essendon will likely win. This is because if Carlton win this match 30% of the time, we will make a profit in the long-term by betting on them (0.3*4.88 – 1 > 0). However, if we bet on Essendon, we will lose in the long-term (0.7*1.22 – 1 < 0). This logic follows to even when teams are rank-outsiders. If Greater Western Sydney are only a 5% chance to win, but are paying $30, you can imagine that a very small bet on GWS is worth-while.
Hey, this forum is no place for that kind of talk mate.
Obviously they have more than 0% chance, but when you look at what is currently happening, form wise and everything else, there's absolutely no way Essendon are 25% chance to beat Adelaide, forget about all the mathematical outcomes of a game of football, everyone knows they are a mathematical chance of winning a game. You seem to be a good bloke who enjoys his footy, so no more arguments. I'll put up the white flag, Essendon are a chance to win.
good, glad the lesson of "don't think in absolutes in punting" has been learned
i'd be very much inclined to take the entirety of what Zealbee has to say in his post above and continue to learn