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Sport 2015 Punters Lounge

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10lana said:
Can't be bothered making another account, but that seems like a great type of bet.
Click to expand...
I joined them last season (under their former name) as they had a Friday night NRL/afl special where they'd blow out the odds for Friday night. So eg Manly + Hawthorn might have been $2.50 but they'd give you $4.00

Made a bit of cash on it last year.
 
Didn't post the bet before it started, so i'll post a screen shot. It's a "bonus bet" equivalent to 20% of my starting pool. I'm not sure how that effects the payout. But I might actually win something. All I need is for Freemantle to do it's job tomorrow.

aaa.png
 

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If you'll forgive the ignorance of a minnow punter, could someone tell me what ever happened to the old TAB footy quad?
I've only ever had an account with them (it's got whiskers on it) and I've searched everywhere on the site.
They advertise a footy quad on google, but the vid only takes you to how to place a quarter bet.
Am I missing it, or should I open an account somewhere else?
Thanks.

PS Well done Port backers. I'll bet there was a few scratch marks in the couch leather in Bobby's house tonight.
 
10lana said:
Didn't post the bet before it started, so i'll post a screen shot. It's a "bonus bet" equivalent to 20% of my starting pool. I'm not sure how that effects the payout. But I might actually win something. All I need is for Freemantle to do it's job tomorrow.

View attachment 125653
Click to expand...
The Crows V Demons game was a bit of a worry early on, always thought Adelaide would struggle covering the line, i had a fair bit on the Crows as you can see below but only at 15.5+, so was a relief to see them kick away.
bet_zpsszplevau.jpg


I think multi's are stacked in betting exchange's favour and rarely take them but you should get your multi, Freo should be too good for the Eagles.
 
Play it Sam said:
If you'll forgive the ignorance of a minnow punter, could someone tell me what ever happened to the old TAB footy quad?
I've only ever had an account with them (it's got whiskers on it) and I've searched everywhere on the site.
They advertise a footy quad on google, but the vid only takes you to how to place a quarter bet.
Am I missing it, or should I open an account somewhere else?
Thanks.

PS Well done Port backers. I'll bet there was a few scratch marks in the couch leather in Bobby's house tonight.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen the footy quad for ages so i'd say it's been scrapped by the TAB and i'm not sure if others have it
 
abet said:
The Crows V Demons game was a bit of a worry early on, always thought Adelaide would struggle covering the line, i had a fair bit on the Crows as you can see below but only at 15.5+, so was a relief to see them kick away.
bet_zpsszplevau.jpg


I think multi's are stacked in betting exchange's favour and rarely take them but you should get your multi, Freo should be too good for the Eagles.
Click to expand...

I can't see how they are stacked anymore then all of the other bets, the prices and (associated risk) you get is just probability.
 
10lana said:
I can't see how they are stacked anymore then all of the other bets, the prices and (associated risk) you get is just probability.
Click to expand...

No when betting on multi's the bookmaker has the advantage.

Singles vs. Multi's

Wagering on single events is the professional and profitable approach to sports betting. However, sometimes you may want to bet more events on the same betting slips, thus making a multi bet.

Many punters believe that betting on multi's of three or four events with low odds gives a better chance of winning then wagering on an event with odds 2.00 (just an example). This is dead-wrong. In fact, multi bets are the bookmakers dream. The thing is that when you are going with this type of bet, you need multiple bets to be successful all at once for you to win. No matter how good your analysis is and no matter how solid the bets look individually, it`s extremely hard for something not to happen wrong in those games. In a multi of 4 games you need all 4 to win. Think about how many outcomes are possible for those 4 events together . Only one of those outcomes will bring you profit!

Besides this, if you are betting multiple events you are giving away value. Bookies apply their “juice” for every odd. With a single bet, that`s not so bad, but with a combo, the “juice” multiplies by 2,3,4 and so on, depending on the number of events. For example, you can end up having odds 2.10 for a multi that ideally should have odds 2.50. That doesn't sound too good, does it? And the discrepancies can be sensibly bigger than showed in this example.

Nobody can say you musn't bet multi's at all, but it`s not a good idea to rely on these kind of bets. They can be profitable sometimes, but money in sports betting is earned betting singles.

***************************************************************************************************************


SINGLE BET VS MULTI BET


Introduction

Even before we have made a bet, the bookmakers are already with “advantage”. The reasons are so many... The main one is the margin rates. We have to learn and get better – this is the only solution. It comes with the using of the different approaches for money management, using techniques like Asian Handicap etc., not only the experience.

Risk of multiple bets

The main reason for using single bets is the amount of the risk – it is significantly less when you bet on single bets. The pure Math shows this – if we have possibilities of several events, then the probability of guessing and winning all of them is calculated this way: We multiply the possibilities by each one. In other words, 2.00 odd is approximately 50% possibility, as we know. If I have 3 games with 2.00 odd then the possibility of my bet to be winning on multiple bet “falls” on 12.5%. The risk is quite different and complex category and you are going to need an actuary to calculate it. But one thing we know for sure – using multiple bets increases your risk couple of times. The risk here can be considered as usual probability – if both games have possibility to be “guessed” 50 percent, than their combination does not give 25 percent possibility. The risk on multiple bets rises exponentially! In this case, it depends on subjective factors, as well. Most of all, how you will choose to combine your bets/games. Simple example is when you have 6 games and combine them in 3 ‘doubles’ – you get 4 games. Then, you are going to have 1 winning bet or 2 losing if we look at the biggest possibility. Until on single bets 4 of 6 games means win. The fact is this:

The risk of using multi's is complex and rises exponential which means that the percent of your winning and winning bets reduces by several times compare with using single bets.

The bookmakers’ margin

As any other product that have added value from which the company has a win (understand that it is a value over the price about the producing of the product or service), the bookmakers has its own, too. The most common situation varies about 7-13% (10% is taken for a middle value) which means that for every set 100$, the bookmaker wins 10$. By using a double bet the margin of the bookmaker automatically becomes double – 20$! As we mentioned above, the risk rises much more and the possibility ‘falls’ so the bookmakers has an opportunity to add more margin than the usual one by multiple (parlay) bets. It is not accidentally that some bookmakers give bonuses and greater win on big bets and even double it if their ‘clients’ use double, triple or quad etc. bets

Limiting to one Bookmaker

Using multiple bets automatically means using only one bookmaker and how we have written about it before – if you want to optimize your strategy and wins, you need to use the best bookmakers; using only one of them means “missed benefits”. This way, you lose better odds which some of the bookmakers could offer in some cases. The best solution here is to use 3-4 Top Bookmakers and use the competition between them. We are going to play and bet in one of them but there will be cases in which other bookmaker will give you higher odds and you just have to get the benefits of it in one click. Nowadays, it is really easy to open accounts in several bookmakers so comments like “This is too confusing or complicated” are not an apology at all.

Here is some Math to defend our thesis:

Let’s imagine that you make a bet at Bookmaker A. You decide to bet for Geelong and Gold Coast (just for example). You calculate that the value at Geelong odd is 6% (so the risk is worth it because it is bigger than the risk) but the odd for Gold Coast is too low (usually the margin of the bookmakers is 10% and I will get it here for an example). What is happening to your value if you use double bet at Bookmaker A:

1.06 * 0.9 = 0.95

Not only you lose your value but the bookmaker still has its margin – the only thing you do is to decrease the margin but it is away from reasonable.


Let’s have another case now – we use 4 bookmakers – A, B, C and D. We still have a value at Geelong bet at Bookmaker A but this time you find an odd which gives you value for Gold Coast, as well – no matter if it is 3-4-5% - it is important that you have a chance to use both odds with value. And all of this is because you are not limited by one Bookmaker or multiple bets.

Psycho aspect

The main reason for people to use multiple bets is the fact that they are looking for fast and huge wins. You cannot think that you can win lots of money easy by this gambling. Unfortunately, people are obsessed of the odds of the bigger bets (10, 15, 30 games) and that hide the reality from them. The truth is that the wins from football, basketball, tennis etc. bets come with a huge discipline, constancy and professionalism. The aim here is to ‘take’ a regular form of wins with constant and smart bets, with good management of money and risk – this cannot be reached by multiple bets!

Conclusion

The main idea in all our articles is to look at the bets more like investments but gambling. This approach could sounds fondly to many people but this is the most secure and disseminated one for everyone who takes this kind of things more seriously. We have always paid attention to elements like Optimizing the wins, higher ROI, Value at the bets, management of the money and others which are all included at the investments.

The truth is one and only –you can use better all elements of the above by single odds. Singles are the way to optimize your win, to increase it and most important – insurance of permanent and increasing flow of revenue by perseverance and controlled risk. Single is one of the most important elements to good return of the investment.

Use Singles!
 
abet said:
No when betting on multi's the bookmaker has the advantage.

Singles vs. Multi's

Wagering on single events is the professional and profitable approach to sports betting. However, sometimes you may want to bet more events on the same betting slips, thus making a multi bet.

Many punters believe that betting on multi's of three or four events with low odds gives a better chance of winning then wagering on an event with odds 2.00 (just an example). This is dead-wrong. In fact, multi bets are the bookmakers dream. The thing is that when you are going with this type of bet, you need multiple bets to be successful all at once for you to win. No matter how good your analysis is and no matter how solid the bets look individually, it`s extremely hard for something not to happen wrong in those games. In a multi of 4 games you need all 4 to win. Think about how many outcomes are possible for those 4 events together . Only one of those outcomes will bring you profit!

Besides this, if you are betting multiple events you are giving away value. Bookies apply their “juice” for every odd. With a single bet, that`s not so bad, but with a combo, the “juice” multiplies by 2,3,4 and so on, depending on the number of events. For example, you can end up having odds 2.10 for a multi that ideally should have odds 2.50. That doesn't sound too good, does it? And the discrepancies can be sensibly bigger than showed in this example.

Nobody can say you musn't bet multi's at all, but it`s not a good idea to rely on these kind of bets. They can be profitable sometimes, but money in sports betting is earned betting singles.

***************************************************************************************************************


SINGLE BET VS MULTI BET


Introduction

Even before we have made a bet, the bookmakers are already with “advantage”. The reasons are so many... The main one is the margin rates. We have to learn and get better – this is the only solution. It comes with the using of the different approaches for money management, using techniques like Asian Handicap etc., not only the experience.

Risk of multiple bets

The main reason for using single bets is the amount of the risk – it is significantly less when you bet on single bets. The pure Math shows this – if we have possibilities of several events, then the probability of guessing and winning all of them is calculated this way: We multiply the possibilities by each one. In other words, 2.00 odd is approximately 50% possibility, as we know. If I have 3 games with 2.00 odd then the possibility of my bet to be winning on multiple bet “falls” on 12.5%. The risk is quite different and complex category and you are going to need an actuary to calculate it. But one thing we know for sure – using multiple bets increases your risk couple of times. The risk here can be considered as usual probability – if both games have possibility to be “guessed” 50 percent, than their combination does not give 25 percent possibility. The risk on multiple bets rises exponentially! In this case, it depends on subjective factors, as well. Most of all, how you will choose to combine your bets/games. Simple example is when you have 6 games and combine them in 3 ‘doubles’ – you get 4 games. Then, you are going to have 1 winning bet or 2 losing if we look at the biggest possibility. Until on single bets 4 of 6 games means win. The fact is this:

The risk of using multi's is complex and rises exponential which means that the percent of your winning and winning bets reduces by several times compare with using single bets.

The bookmakers’ margin

As any other product that have added value from which the company has a win (understand that it is a value over the price about the producing of the product or service), the bookmakers has its own, too. The most common situation varies about 7-13% (10% is taken for a middle value) which means that for every set 100$, the bookmaker wins 10$. By using a double bet the margin of the bookmaker automatically becomes double – 20$! As we mentioned above, the risk rises much more and the possibility ‘falls’ so the bookmakers has an opportunity to add more margin than the usual one by multiple (parlay) bets. It is not accidentally that some bookmakers give bonuses and greater win on big bets and even double it if their ‘clients’ use double, triple or quad etc. bets

Limiting to one Bookmaker

Using multiple bets automatically means using only one bookmaker and how we have written about it before – if you want to optimize your strategy and wins, you need to use the best bookmakers; using only one of them means “missed benefits”. This way, you lose better odds which some of the bookmakers could offer in some cases. The best solution here is to use 3-4 Top Bookmakers and use the competition between them. We are going to play and bet in one of them but there will be cases in which other bookmaker will give you higher odds and you just have to get the benefits of it in one click. Nowadays, it is really easy to open accounts in several bookmakers so comments like “This is too confusing or complicated” are not an apology at all.

Here is some Math to defend our thesis:

Let’s imagine that you make a bet at Bookmaker A. You decide to bet for Geelong and Gold Coast (just for example). You calculate that the value at Geelong odd is 6% (so the risk is worth it because it is bigger than the risk) but the odd for Gold Coast is too low (usually the margin of the bookmakers is 10% and I will get it here for an example). What is happening to your value if you use double bet at Bookmaker A:

1.06 * 0.9 = 0.95

Not only you lose your value but the bookmaker still has its margin – the only thing you do is to decrease the margin but it is away from reasonable.


Let’s have another case now – we use 4 bookmakers – A, B, C and D. We still have a value at Geelong bet at Bookmaker A but this time you find an odd which gives you value for Gold Coast, as well – no matter if it is 3-4-5% - it is important that you have a chance to use both odds with value. And all of this is because you are not limited by one Bookmaker or multiple bets.

Psycho aspect

The main reason for people to use multiple bets is the fact that they are looking for fast and huge wins. You cannot think that you can win lots of money easy by this gambling. Unfortunately, people are obsessed of the odds of the bigger bets (10, 15, 30 games) and that hide the reality from them. The truth is that the wins from football, basketball, tennis etc. bets come with a huge discipline, constancy and professionalism. The aim here is to ‘take’ a regular form of wins with constant and smart bets, with good management of money and risk – this cannot be reached by multiple bets!

Conclusion

The main idea in all our articles is to look at the bets more like investments but gambling. This approach could sounds fondly to many people but this is the most secure and disseminated one for everyone who takes this kind of things more seriously. We have always paid attention to elements like Optimizing the wins, higher ROI, Value at the bets, management of the money and others which are all included at the investments.

The truth is one and only –you can use better all elements of the above by single odds. Singles are the way to optimize your win, to increase it and most important – insurance of permanent and increasing flow of revenue by perseverance and controlled risk. Single is one of the most important elements to good return of the investment.

Use Singles!
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting this article but it won't change my habits.
1) I'm not going to use more then one bookmaker, so i'm not concerned about that opportunity cost
2) I'm happy to shoulder the risk of losing the entire bet if I get 1 leg wrong as my bet size isn't large enough to be concered about protecting the bet, If i was betting 1k per bet I wouldn't be going for this strategy.
3) The second the money went into my betting account I assumed that I threw I glued it to outside of a moving train, which is a risky strategy if you want any return.

I'll give you an example

Lets say I have a multi
Team A pays 1.1
Team B pays 1.3
Team C pays 1.5
Team D pays 1.7

i bet four units for a pay off of 3.65 per dollar for a total 14.6
Start 4
End-wwww 14.6
End-wwwl 0

if I beat them head to head with 1 unit per bet, if i win all I get a pay off of 1.6

Start 4
End-wwww 5.6
End-lwww 4.5
End-wlww 4.3
End-wwlw 4.1
End-wwwl 3.8
End-llww 3.2

Though I do admit that you are right.
 
10lana said:
Thanks for posting this article but it won't change my habits.
1) I'm not going to use more then one bookmaker, so i'm not concerned about that opportunity cost
2) I'm happy to shoulder the risk of losing the entire bet if I get 1 leg wrong as my bet size isn't large enough to be concered about protecting the bet, If i was betting 1k per bet I wouldn't be going for this strategy.
3) The second the money went into my betting account I assumed that I threw I glued it to outside of a moving train, which is a risky strategy if you want any return.

I'll give you an example

Lets say I have a multi
Team A pays 1.1
Team B pays 1.3
Team C pays 1.5
Team D pays 1.7

i bet four units for a pay off of 3.65 per dollar for a total 14.6
Start 4
End-wwww 14.6
End-wwwl 0

if I beat them head to head with 1 unit per bet, if i win all I get a pay off of 1.6

Start 4
End-wwww 5.6
End-lwww 4.5
End-wlww 4.3
End-wwlw 4.1
End-wwwl 3.8
End-llww 3.2

Though I do admit that you are right.
Click to expand...

That's good, i'm glad you get it.

Yes i used to be like that with throwing it away once bet but have got a bit wiser and don't get me wrong i still have a multi or two but that's just for fun and for small amounts.

It's the same as value in a bet, i used to think if a bet was going to win then back it no matter if it is or isn't value, now days unless it's value i don't bet regardless if i think it's going to win.
 
10lana said:
We'll hopefully it's time for some redemption, after last rounds poor showing
Current Balance 80%

Bets this round

Bet 2

Carlton v Essendon: Essendon to win 1.19
WCE v Freemantle: Freemantle -5.5 1.41
Hawthorn v WB: Hawthorn -19.5 1.28
Geelong v GC: Geelong to win 1-39 2.4
Pays 5.15
Bet 10%

Bet 3

Collingwood v St Kilda: St Kilda to win 3
Carlton v Essendon: Essendon to win 1.19
WCE v Freemantle: Freemantle -5.5 1.41
Hawthorn v WB: Hawthorn -19.5 1.28
Geelong v GC: Geelong to win 1-39 2.4
Pays 15.46
Bet 10%

Start 80%

Possible end of round results
Win both- 286.1%
win 2 lose 3 121.5%
lose both 60%

0-1
Click to expand...

10lana said:
Didn't post the bet before it started, so i'll post a screen shot. It's a "bonus bet" equivalent to 20% of my starting pool. I'm not sure how that effects the payout. But I might actually win something. All I need is for Freemantle to do it's job tomorrow.

View attachment 125653
Click to expand...

Week two debrief

I made three bets this weekend, 2 bets were variants of the same bet, 10% each on a multi with one adding a St kilda over Collingwood. Even if Nick wasn't a late withdrawal, this was clearly a bad bad and is the cause of my lesson 2 and cost me a 40% return. Of the other legs, Geelong was the riskiest leg and we just got over by less than 12.

The third be was a "bonus bet" which got off to a nervous start with Melbourne jumping Adelaide and GWS's inaccurate kicking. They both cleared the line but due to the way the bonus bet works, I got a lower return then expected(20%) .

Lesson 1-Carlton are always worse than you think they are.
Lesson 2-Don't get greedy

Overall it's good to be in the positive.
Current reserve 170.9%

2-2
 
Last edited by a moderator:

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didn't post but had a couple of wins in the NBA today which was good. Managed to now get my balance up to a reasonable amount so this is when it becomes tough to hold back as you really want to start punting on sports you don't usually have any interest in (soccer).

I'm going to look over some NBA games for tomorrow. So far, Clippers look really enticing. Might wait and see if the lines moves at all.
 
abet, I was on the Rockets first game, took the moneyline though as I risked a fair bit and didn't wanna get moosed.
I'm really liking the prop bet for James Harden. I really believe he will score about 35 points so will happily take the over 27.5 points currently on offer.
$500 on that one, good luck if you decide to take the Rockets -5.5.
 
I just can't pull the trigger myself. Game one was one of the most strangest games I have seen for a long time. There was very little intensity or fight from Dallas, even the Rockets were quite average and still maintained a 5-10 point lead throughout. If anything, I kind of lean toward the Mavericks winning this one which is why I'm going to risk my money on Harden trying to swing the tide in his teams favor during the 4th quarter.
Monta Ellis should have a much better night offensively as well.

Good luck though abet, will be rooting for you
Peace_5.gif
 
well done abet, I lost my $500 on the Harden prop. After a loss like this, you can be tempted putting on another large bet to try and win back your losses so I think it would be wise for me to stay clear of the NBA and focus on the upcoming footy this weekend. Some ripping games on, and even better odds currently on display.
North Melbourne look really tempting. Only getting a goal as well, and given how poor Geelong's midfield is, you wonder how long they can hang in the game before the inevitable occurs.
 

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Bobby_ said:
well done abet, I lost my $500 on the Harden prop. After a loss like this, you can be tempted putting on another large bet to try and win back your losses so I think it would be wise for me to stay clear of the NBA and focus on the upcoming footy this weekend. Some ripping games on, and even better odds currently on display.
North Melbourne look really tempting. Only getting a goal as well, and given how poor Geelong's midfield is, you wonder how long they can hang in the game before the inevitable occurs.
Click to expand...

I put some bets on the game(though I probably shouldn't have since I know nothing about NBA). I didn't understand what abet meant about DOUBLE MAX PLAY.

I did a line bet of -5.5 and another for the Rockets to be ahead at both halves. 5% on each, getting me a return 18.9%. I got lucky this time.

10lana's lesson 3 don't bet on sports you know **** all about.

I can't bet against Geelong(i tip them every week) Though you'd think that North would be pretty safe.

At this stage I'm betting 10% on a multi

Richmond v Melbourne: -11.5 1.51
St Kilda v Carlton: -11.5 1.63
Essendon v Collingwood: -11.5 1.7
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide: -11.5 1.47
paying $6.15

Current reserve 170%

I'd say the match of the round has to be Essendon getting over Collingwood. I might make an extra handicap of that match with a -19.5 line of 10%.
But i'll wait for teams before going for that one.

I try to minimize risk by having similar sized bets, so that no loss to too much bigger than any other. This stops one big loss countering many big gains.
 
Bobby_ said:
well done abet, I lost my $500 on the Harden prop. After a loss like this, you can be tempted putting on another large bet to try and win back your losses so I think it would be wise for me to stay clear of the NBA and focus on the upcoming footy this weekend. Some ripping games on, and even better odds currently on display.
North Melbourne look really tempting. Only getting a goal as well, and given how poor Geelong's midfield is, you wonder how long they can hang in the game before the inevitable occurs.
Click to expand...
Thanks Bobby, shame you didn't get yours, would have been great if both of us won.

Yeah don't go chasing, it's something that brings you undone.
 
10lana said:
I put some bets on the game(though I probably shouldn't have since I know nothing about NBA). I didn't understand what abet meant about DOUBLE MAX PLAY.

I did a line bet of -5.5 and another for the Rockets to be ahead at both halves. 5% on each, getting me a return 18.9%. I got lucky this time.

10lana's lesson 3 don't bet on sports you know **** all about.

I can't bet against Geelong(i tip them every week) Though you'd think that North would be pretty safe.

At this stage I'm betting 10% on a multi

Richmond v Melbourne: -11.5 1.51
St Kilda v Carlton: -11.5 1.63
Essendon v Collingwood: -11.5 1.7
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide: -11.5 1.47
paying $6.15

Current reserve 170%

I'd say the match of the round has to be Essendon getting over Collingwood. I might make an extra handicap of that match with a -19.5 line of 10%.
But i'll wait for teams before going for that one.

I try to minimize risk by having similar sized bets, so that no loss to too much bigger than any other. This stops one big loss countering many big gains.
Click to expand...

The person i get the tips from in Vegas calls his bets plays. Normally he has 20 units on his plays but he was so confident on this one that he made it a Double Max Play which means a 40 unit bet, so he's virtually doubled his bet and as it turns out he was on the ball as usual. So if i ever list his plays on here you all should use them to advantage because he's bloody good.
 

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