2016 AFL - Round 7

[2006_Eagles]

Crazy value. Thinking cats will probably win by 40+ in this one

Some great value to be had here.

12.5 are you kidding me

I would have it about 30.5

 

[2006_Eagles]

Who do we like from Gold Coast and Melb?

My gut says GC at home but they are in pretty bad shape at the moment.

 

[2006_Eagles]

Im guessing..

Never lost against GWS ever, GWS never won in Perf ever ...etc etc

These are valid points. GWS did well away from home two weeks ago.

This may be the week they break the hoodoo.

Freo with a head start for me.

 

[chrisdon16]

These are valid points. GWS did well away from home two weeks ago.

This may be the week they break the hoodoo.

Freo with a head start for me.

Giants defeated hawks by 75 points last week. Just sayin'

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Massive call. Can you explain your reasoning?

my model said Freo were value hah. not that it's worked overly well for me this year.

Think there's a bit much "freo lost to carlton, gws beat hawks" factored into the market

 

[free at last]

Some great value to be had here.

12.5 are you kidding me

I would have it about 30.5

Subi & SS are similar in size I can see their GP working effectively at SS.I'm calling the game will be tight contest IMO.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Who do we like from Gold Coast and Melb?

My gut says GC at home but they are in pretty bad shape at the moment.

I backed the Dees yesterday when they were $2.05, IMO they are simply a better side than GC (who have been extremely poor since the loss to Brisbane, back to last years form) and match up very well with them.... Melb now into favourites at CB @ $1.86.

But remembering, expectation and Melbourne isnt a good thing...

Dees record as favs 4-13 over the past 17 games. Its all so confusing.

Here's hoping the fact that they didnt open favs means something and they win as they should.

 

[2006_Eagles]

Subi & SS are similar in size I can see their GP working effectively at SS.I'm calling the game will be tight contest IMO.

Same sized ground can't make up for the lopside in talent.

 

[2006_Eagles]

Giants defeated hawks by 75 points last week. Just sayin'

A big head start

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

It's just a joke which you're very familiar with.

I'm happy you won it alldat.

Onwards!

So long as you know im just playing back ... I dont want to see anyone carded, really. I know there are certain people who would love nothing more than to see me carded though. Im a very good salt miner if i dont say so myself.

I enjoy poking, prodding and arguing about nothing more than anything else in this world. It makes me happy.

 

[bombersbackyard]

2016 AFL record 3-3 -.4U

a game like this only comes around once every 3 years. I see a lot of motivation for one team, and a team that is belly up with it's season done. Hawthorn scraping those 3 close wins together finally caught up with them and the young stallion overtook the old bull, this loss is good for us and will act as a mini reset to Hawthorn, as you could see they well and truly put the cue in the rack at half time on the weekend. Now everyone is saying Hawthorn are done but we are all smarter to know that they aren't, they aren't certainties to win the premiership but they are certainties to respond against Richmond this weekend. Clarkson stated that "the season is still well and truly alive for us," so those can fade Hawthorn at their own peril. Hawthorn are a proud football club and they definitely don't like losing, the last time they lost by more then 60 points (Richmond 3 years ago), they destroyed North Melbourne by 100+, as a previous poster mentioned they had a very good success rate ATS after a loss last year. This year when they lost to Geelong they out played the eagles the next week, we saw a very switched on hawks unit that we are accustomed to seeing.

Richmond's culture is a culture of losing and underachieving, they came into this season with high hopes, hoping to one up their recurring elimination finals losses. The only team they have beaten this year was Carlton and that was in round 1, it was very unconvincing. They choked away a 3 goal lead to Collingwood (who are pretty bad themselves), they were never in it against Adelaide. a few people thought that Ivan Maric's mullet had magical powers and with him back in the team they would start to pick up form. They got pantsed by the eagles, and Melbourne. A lot of pressure was on Hardwick and Richmond to deliver with their season on the line in a very very winnable game against Port Adelaide's B team and they were terrible, if you don't have the talent at least show some heart but they showed nothing. Fair enough you can't expect deledio to change the game for you, AFL is a team sport and you need all 22 pulling their weight which brings me to Richmond's list. Chaplin, Morris, Batchelor, Hampson; just to name a few shows you how bad this list is. Cotchin and Rance; Two of their better players are out this week which is good for us I guess. I'm thinking about Bruest, Cyril, Puopolo and Gunston matching up against the hawks defenders and it looks like it's gonna get ugly.

Now to the odds, If you got on Hawthorn earlier at -33.5 then that's great, if you want to get on now it's on -42.5 at Crown and I think -44.5 at Sportsbet. I'm not scared of the high line, I think they'll be covering it at the half. With all of the public on this game I think this will inflate to 50ish by the bounce so if you want to get on, i'd get on now. Port Adelaide B team beat this team by 35, and Melbourne by 33, I will take my chances with a motivated hawks team beating them by 43+

The game is at the MCG which is great for us, no team plays the MCG better then the hawks, it's a Richmond home game but Richmond have no homeground ADV as displayed last week against port, the crowd barely got into it. The weather looks like it'll be fine which is good for us, as we saw last week the hawks game plan goes to shit in the wet. The game is on Friday night which is good for us as well as most of the footy world will be watching. Both Teams are coming off a 6 day break.

Now we're all aware that Richmond have a decent record against the hawks recently but I just can't see how the team they will put out on Friday will keep it close with the hawks. The List advantage goes to Hawthorn, the hawks have more talent on every line and the coaching advantage definitely goes to Hawthorn; Hardwick is a fraud.

So we have a championship team that was embarrassed by an young up and coming team who were definitely up and about, returning home for redemption against a team that has no talent and shows no heart.

2U Hawthorn -22.5 half time line
2U Hawthorn -42.5 FG
1U Hawthorn -63.5 @ $2.95

Best of luck to whoever decides to tail

 

[free at last]

Same sized ground can't make up for the lopside in talent.

You've got a defence that should be able to handle Geelong's front six plus your front six is pretty good.
Your midfield some how has to try and break even with Selwood & danger.

 

[2006_Eagles]

Hawthorn -34.5 (365) ......FU 365 and your slow to react markets, i swore i would never bet with you ever again.

 

[chrisdon16]

Think there's a bit much "freo lost to carlton, gws beat hawks" factored into the market

May be true, but Freo didn't just lose to Carlton at home (which is embarrassing) but they've lost every game, been rotten all year. To suggest they break out of it against this GWS outfit is very brave. Think giants not only win but cover the line pretty easily. Hope I'm wrong for your sake

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

huh, i see your Samuel L and raise you my hero and #1 all time acting goliath Gary Sweet.

"odds boost" "bet better" etc etc

check mate, mate.

 

[2006_Eagles]

"Should I f*cken cash out on the Bunnies or...

...yeah f*ck it"

 

[2006_Eagles]

Rusty C says everyone chill the **** out

 

[Chism]

Rusty C says everyone chill the **** out

This x100.

The more clean ups, the more deletes etc with little reporting while people are happy to go at each other is seeing Infractions soon and board bans.

After this has happened feel free to start a Punting thread on Bay 13 and go for your lives but it will not be tolerated here much longer.

 

[chrisdon16]

Yeah c'mon men, I see enough drama watching Kardashian's at home with the Mrs, don't want it here too. This board is great, let's not ruin it

 

[AFLFootyChick]

A massive mistake on the high/low double (Sportsbet). See attached. It's not THIS bet that you want, it's the reverse, Hawthorn/Freo at 51-1! Overs? Ahhh, ya think?!

 

[AFLFootyChick]

A massive mistake on the high/low double (Sportsbet). See attached. It's not THIS bet that you want, it's the reverse, Hawthorn/Freo at 51-1! Overs? Ahhh, ya think?!

High/low double, odds should be reversed...showing 15-1 for Freo/Hawks and 51-1 for Hawks/Freo...

 

[Boxhead182]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Sydney
GWS
$2000 at $2.01

Collingwood
Adelaide
$1000 at $2.47

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Sydney
GWS
$2000 at $2.01

Collingwood
Adelaide
$1000 at $2.47

That's some serious coin man, good luck. Can't see how that multi won't get up, but then again it's AFL football

 

[Boxhead182]

That's some serious coin man, good luck. Can't see how that multi won't get up, but then again it's AFL football

Yeah it is man, been going ok this year with my bigger bets just sometimes don't get around to posting every week on here.
Just about picking the right time of the year to unload I guess

 

[Navyblues83]

Watched freo live on sat and they weren't terrible all be it very inaccurate... GWS due for a let down after a big month so +24.5 looks value for freo unless mundy is injured or something