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Preview 2016 Round 12 Swans v GWS Preview

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Who Will Win


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FreeAgent1

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Well after the soaring heights set by swansfan51, I liken it to goal of the year being decided in round 8, nevertheless I shall contribute my preview for round 12 entitled "Alleviate the Apathy"

Who: Swans v GWS
What: Sydney's biggest rivalry*
When: 4:40pm Sunday 12 June
Where: Spot-less
Why: To grow the Sydney grudge match

The Rivalry
All real rivalries in sport are grown, not made. From the deeply sewn community differences like the union strikes separating Millwall v West Ham to religious differences for Rangers V Celtic, rivalries are born from either hate, or an indescribable feeling of disapproval. Here is where the afl has always fallen down, this has never been a real rivalry, as we have never really hated GWS, they have always just been to irrelevant to care about, their mediocrity deserved APATHY!!! This.is.no.longer.true.

Despite "battle for the bridge" is the most oxymoronic moniker ever given to a game**, I now do care. In all seriousness with the age and strength of both lists this could be a finals fixture that we continue to see for the next 5 years.

'Why should I care' you ask:

1-This will be the easiest away fixture to get to all season!
2-Neither team will get favoured by the umpires, who will get confused over which side's loss helps which VFL teams chances more....cancelling out any favouritism, ironically resulting in consistency.
3-This will genuinely be a good game! As the clash earlier this year showed, GWS can really play!
4-Its long weekend, so you can celebrate the win long into the night after the win***
5-Sam Reid will return, guaranteed****

Past encounters
RD 3 2016 @SCG- Swans by 25
RD 21 2015 @ SPO - Swans by 89
RD 3 2015 @ SCG - Swans by 21
RD 15 2014 @ SCG - Swans by 46
RD 1 2014 @ SPO - GWS by 32
RD 16 2013 @ SCG - Swans by 129

The Stats
There are some important stats that you would like to know about this game, analytically summarising differences between the teams. I would also like this. Alas, you cant have everything you want*****

Key Matchups
THE MIDFIELD- The likes of a super hot Hanners, Parker, JPK and Mitchell run into the silky smooth, Shiel, Ward, Coniglio and the young bull of J Hopper.

Sydney is the competitions benchmark for inside footy, they are clean, they are consistent and they are ferocious. The reason sydney often win, is not a wonderful conversion rate for I50 entries, but merely that the midfield win the bal...ALOT.

Rampe & Reg vs Cameron & Patton- If their mids can get it inside 50, to advantage, under no pressure, we loose this battle every time, we are just giving away too much size/power. If we have a manic level of pressure on the ball carrier, then it is bombed into these two all day, we will work it out consistently.

Sam Reid+newly attached hamstrings vs Interchange official No4- Must watch

Summary
The round 3 clash was a great appetiser, it showed that if the Swans keep the ball inside and apply pressure so manic it boarders on harassment, then no side can stand up to this, and we win by 4 goals. GWS showed their freakish running ability/capacity. If they get outside too much and get over the back...expect.bad.bad.things.

Score estimate- Swans by 2 goals


*Definitely not the biggest! Maybe a top 10.
**Sydney has 1 bridge that anyone cares about, ask anyone from VIC who doesn't follow the swans which bridge that we are talking about....the ANZAC Bridge? lunacy.
***Any celebrations are not recommended at Homebush, Go directly to the city, dont pass go, collect the 4 points.
****Not guaranteed.
*****Unless your Newbold or Eddie and play the no equalisation trump card on all other agenda items.
 
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Good stuff FreeAgent1

With a view merely to secure the 4 pts, and despite the horrible spectacle of last night and a miserable weekend here, it probably suits us for the rain to just keep tumbling down for another week :(

Think we have their measure, but on the back of two straight losses, GWS will throw everything at us. Great test of where we really stand
 
Selection will be very interesting. Hewett is obviously in danger of missing so if indeed he does, if it was like for like Towers, Papley (if fit) and maybe Brandon Jack would be in contention. It would be unfortunate for Hewett to miss as I think he could play on Heath Shaw and at least make him vaguely accountable. We need someone for that job, that's for sure. We can't allow him to run his own race.

However with Cameron, Patton and Lobb in the GWS side (they kicked one between them yesterday incidentally) the coaches might be tempted to bring Reid back into the side to play on one of them, despite barely doing a thing in his reserve time so far. Or Aliir maybe.
 

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Great write-up. We'll need to be at our peaks to win this. That Tippett beating Mumford; that means our midfield winning more of the ball, applying more pressure on their ball carriers, and stopping their outside run which is hectic; that means Heeney getting the dukes out, Buddy bombing them accurately, McGlynn, Rohan etc putting on the defensive pressure inside 50; that means Grundy and Sir Dane of House Rampe suffocating Cameron and Patton, Laidler & Mills taking intercepting their entries, and McVeigh and Jones being classy rebounding out of defence; and it means fringe guys like Lloyd, Cunningham, Hewett, Sinclair etc gotta stand up and continue to remind Horse why they're best 22.

A lot needs to go right, but a lot has to go right for the Giants as well. Never gonna be an easy game, but a loss after playing in the Tsunami wouldn't be a disaster. If we get even some of those criteria ^ right, we'll have a red hot chance.
 
Gws are the umps pet, still get the new kids umpiring

I think they are a finals team
But the hype is over the top, not a top 4 team and i expect a solid win
 
Geelong won free's count 29 to 13 to GWS.....with some "interesting" 50s


Count means nothing, its where, when and whats paid

Gws are aggressive and undisciplined at times

Just my opinion

We smashed them last time at spotless, that would be good again, suspect they wont allow that again
 
In: Mills
Out: Hewett (injury)

That's only real change I'd make- Rose was good, I wouldn't bring Reid in for this game give him a week in the two's and than maybe bring him in next week. Reid's end of last season form is good but not straight into the firsts good after such a long layoff.
 
Game on , this is a big test imo

There spread at spotless could cause is trouble

Stop sheil please and not with Cunningham

Cunningham out and papley in if fit

Can see reid playing maybe for marsh and a switch of position for rohan maybe


Danger game?
 
This will be tough, GWS are a 5 goal better team at Spotless and we're coming off a very hard slog in tough conditions.

In: Mills
Out: Hewett (if injured)

Rose stays in for mine, gave no reason to drop him. Cunningham would be on notice but most likely stays in, brings enough in tackling and pressure.
 

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I will assume Papley is good to go so he comes for George and Rose makes way for Mills.

Personally I would release Mills up the field a bit, or angry man Jones, and keep everything else the same. Not much point fixing what ain't broke.

As it stands Mills is better back than Jones and probably better in the midfield so pick your poison.

McBabe needs to look over the shoulder a bit as well. He has been doing some good things but some dumb things regularly and seems to be running around in circles a lot. Much prefer Papley and George to him at the moment but that is just me and not this week obviously.
 

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Game on , this is a big test imo

There spread at spotless could cause is trouble

Stop sheil please and not with Cunningham

Cunningham out and papley in if fit

Can see reid playing maybe for marsh and a switch of position for rohan maybe

Is Cunningham the new whipping boy of the week?

Not a chance he comes out.
 
GWS run very hard offensively. Not so much the other way. You can get behind them and find space to run into. Their key defenders are really good though. Well led, and work well. It's their midfield not pushing back that exposes them a bit.

They are not to be trifled with.
 
In: Mills
Out: Hewett (injury)

That's only real change I'd make- Rose was good, I wouldn't bring Reid in for this game give him a week in the two's and than maybe bring him in next week. Reid's end of last season form is good but not straight into the firsts good after such a long layoff.

Reid has played the last two games in the ressies. Hasnt torn them apart but if his inclusion brings us a structural advantage then i see no reason not to bring him in. Rohan played 2 ressie matches without ripping it up at look what he did on his return
 
Reid has played the last two games in the ressies. Hasnt torn them apart but if his inclusion brings us a structural advantage then i see no reason not to bring him in. Rohan played 2 ressie matches without ripping it up at look what he did on his return


If they see Reid as best 22 he will play

They just will use reserves for match fitness

Reid has never been expected to tear games apart, or get touches of the footy or have an impact.

If he ran around a bit and got a couple of touches then he is ready
 
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