AFL 2017 - AFL Round 1

[Russian Demon]

Thought this game might be a real toss up (as the odds indicate), but now not growing really positive on the Saints. Finished last season 10W 4L vs Melbourne 6W 8L in the same timeframe. Included in this streak is an 8W 2L record at Etihad. While the Saints are very hard to beat at Etihad, Melbourne have been historically very poor at this venue. Last two games in 2016 at Etihad vs Dees the Saints won by around 6 goals both times.

Both teams recruited well (Saints - Stevens, Steele + Carlisle back) and Melbourne (Hibberd - injured and Lewis). So potentially 3 new inclusions to 1 for the first round.

I think Gawn dominating was a feature in many of the Dees wins last year. However, Hickey is very underrated and nullified Gawn's influence very well in the two matchups last year.

I can't disagree. Solid value.

 

[Keystone agony]

Both teams should make the 8. Hibberd, J.Lewis and Melksham added for dees and saints as you mentioned also very nice additions.

Boy are Sydney struggling.

Losing game experience for 2016 here:
Lewis Jetta (traded to West Coast)
Craig Bird (traded to Essendon)
Adam Goodes (retired)
Rhyce Shaw (retired)
Mike Pyke (retired)

Then losing 4/6 starting forwards from the grandfinal for round 1 in T.Mitchell, X.Richards, Papley, Mcglynn for 2017. Now they could also be without Mcveigh, Jack, Heeney is certain out as is Rohan who was meant to also play forward.

Theyre on their bare knuckles at the moment, can Port cause an early upset or will Sydney continue to prove huge losses doesnt matter as its all about process/system at the club.

 

[targett]

Both teams should make the 8. Hibberd, J.Lewis and Melksham added for dees and saints as you mentioned also very nice additions.

Boy are Sydney struggling.

Losing game experience for 2016 here:
Lewis Jetta (traded to West Coast)
Craig Bird (traded to Essendon)
Adam Goodes (retired)
Rhyce Shaw (retired)
Mike Pyke (retired)

Then losing 4/6 starting forwards from the grandfinal for round 1 in T.Mitchell, X.Richards, Papley, Mcglynn for 2017. Now they could also be without Mcveigh, Jack, Heeney is certain out as is Rohan who was meant to also play forward.

Theyre on their bare knuckles at the moment, can Port cause an early upset or will Sydney continue to prove huge losses doesnt matter as its all about process/system at the club.

If melb and saints make the 8 ...who goes out ? North ? And

 

[Keystone agony]

If melb and saints make the 8 ...who goes out ? North ? And

Well i dont rate the crows but they always prove me wrong.

Maybe Geelong could drop aswell. It is the question that i get asked but IMO they have sides that are real quality and belief now after the dogs.

GWS, Dogs, WCE, Hawks, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide, Melb, Stkilda (clear top 9 for me)

Brisbane/Carton (clear 17th-18th for me)

Richmond, GC Suns, North, Essendon, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide (10-16th group)

Thats how i see it so i will change my statement to 'top 9'

 

[MAGA]

Getting on the Tiges now, will start at $1.20

 

[puntking]

I can't disagree. Solid value.

and the trend will continue

 

[targett]

and the trend will continue

Cant open your images

 

[Youdy]

If melb and saints make the 8 ...who goes out ? North ? And

For the regular season, here's my worthless opinion

1. a fit Sydney/GWS a step above, have the most complete sides.

A step behind

2. Dogs/Cats (Cats due to the ?'s on consistency, dropped a lot of games to poor teams last year & Dogs due to ??'s on their ability to score)

3. Adelaide/West Coast/Hawthorn/Saints/Melbourne in a big bundle of teams with obvious flaws.


Port? Only 2 wins away from the 8 last year and they were putrid at times.
Pies? Top 4 level midfield, everything else looks a bit questionable.
GC? Possibly, they looked good before the midfield imploded last season.
Bombers? Think the returning players will be too out of touch

 

[srobbo]

What's the theory on Brisbane? I'm expecting them to be just as shit as usual.

Was shocked by the Hawks line (-10.5). Is anyone else predicting a Hawks decline that severe that we are expected to sneak past Essendon? I think the Hawk additions should make the team stronger than last year and expecting some first up rust by some Essendon players. Hawks forward line is A grade vs a D grade Ess backline.

Hawthorn $1.62 is a gift. Will crush us...4-5 goals atleast. Your small fwds will have a picnic.

 

[mookieb]

Hawthorn $1.62 is a gift. Will crush us...4-5 goals atleast. Your small fwds will have a picnic.

Yeah I just posted on the Ess board in case I was missing anything...

Leuenberger out is a massive blow given our ruck weakness. Any reason Hooker and Hocking were virtually unsighted in JLT series?

 

[srobbo]

Yeah I just posted on the Ess board in case I was missing anything...

Leuenberger out is a massive blow given our ruck weakness. Any reason Hooker and Hocking were virtually unsighted in JLT series?

Hooker's had hammy issues & being cotton wooled. Playing a VFL game friday. Hocking no idea.

 

[mookieb]

Had another look at NM vs WC and jumped on WC -15.5. NM team from last year has been gutted (Harvey, Firrito, Dal Santo, Petrie and Wells gone), but also will miss Jacobs, Anderson, Cunnington and Wood. Brown a chance to miss and if not will be underdone. All to be replaced by youth.

On paper this could get ugly and there is a massive mismatch between the two midfields.

 

[benno_]

Had another look at NM vs WC and jumped on WC -15.5. NM team from last year has been gutted (Harvey, Firrito, Dal Santo, Petrie and Wells gone), but also will miss Jacobs, Anderson, Cunnington and Wood. Brown a chance to miss and if not will be underdone. All to be replaced by youth.

On paper this could get ugly and there is a massive mismatch between the two midfields.

Agree, I really like the -15.5 and even the @1.42 H2H (should be much lower imo). I think it could get very ugly for the Kangaroos, even tempted to have a nibble at 40+ @3.75

Only thing making me a bit iffy is it being an away game and Goldstien's impact, but the Eagles have them covered easily in most areas and I think they should still win comfortably.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I really like Freo h2h against Geelong

 

[free at last]

I really like Freo h2h against Geelong

Prefer the +14.5

 

[targett]

Had another look at NM vs WC and jumped on WC -15.5. NM team from last year has been gutted (Harvey, Firrito, Dal Santo, Petrie and Wells gone), but also will miss Jacobs, Anderson, Cunnington and Wood. Brown a chance to miss and if not will be underdone. All to be replaced by youth.

On paper this could get ugly and there is a massive mismatch between the two midfields.

Jack Ziebell March 16, 2017 4:44 PM

"I think we've only got two or three guys now who will miss round one through injury.

 

[Zevon]

Extremely keen on West Coast, probably the safest bet of the round. Can't see North winning more than a handful of games this year; think the margin could really blow out in that game so the 40+ looks a solid option.

Collingwood, Port and Fremantle could all cause problems for their more fancied opponents. Port is the most speculative/riskiest selection of that lot but they are overs at $4.30. At the very least the lines look attractive for all three of those games.

Not really keen to touch anything else in week 1; happy just to watch the other games and take on board what happens for future weeks.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Extremely keen on West Coast, probably the safest bet of the round. Can't see North winning more than a handful of games this year; think the margin could really blow out in that game so the 40+ looks a solid option.

Collingwood, Port and Fremantle could all cause problems for their more fancied opponents. Port is the most speculative/riskiest selection of that lot but they are overs at $4.30. At the very least the lines look attractive for all three of those games.

Not really keen to touch anything else in week 1; happy just to watch the other games and take on board what happens for future weeks.

I can see Collingwood causing an upset...

 

[free at last]

I can see Collingwood causing an upset...

Considering it's at the 'G' too....

 

[mookieb]

Jack Ziebell March 16, 2017 4:44 PM

"I think we've only got two or three guys now who will miss round one through injury.

I think Jacobs, Wood and Anderson will miss and are all best 22. I guess he is speculating that Ben Brown will play, but if he does then highly likely to be underdone.

The big miss will be Cunnington (suspension) who is their best ball winner leaving little opposition to Mitchell, Shuey, and Priddis.

 

[targett]

I think Jacobs, Wood and Anderson will miss and are all best 22. I guess he is speculating that Ben Brown will play, but if he does then highly likely to be underdone.

The big miss will be Cunnington (suspension) who is their best ball winner leaving little opposition to Mitchell, Shuey, and Priddis.

West Coast's 1/5 record in Melbourne last season is a concern.There only win being against the lowly placed Carlton by 7 points.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Jack Ziebell March 16, 2017 4:44 PM

"I think we've only got two or three guys now who will miss round one through injury.

At full strength they are shithouse.

 

[X_box_X]

Considering it's at the 'G' too....

Being at the 'G helps the Dogs.

If it was at Etihad, different story.

 

[free at last]

Being at the 'G helps the Dogs.

If it was at Etihad, different story.

How so?

 

[X_box_X]

How so?

It's a myth that the Bulldogs perform best at Etihad. That is definitely not the case at all.

Last year we went 9-4 at Etihad Stadium.
Last year we went 4-0 at the MCG.

We also struggled in a few of our wins at Etihad, only just falling over the line in games against Richmond and Collingwood.

All four wins we had at the MCG were around 4-6 goal victories, two of them in finals.

The Bulldogs rely heavily on their defensive pressure, and that pressure can often lead to the opposition throwing the ball on their boot, pressuring them into a turnover. Those turnovers become even more prevalant when you add the outside elements of the weather. Playing under a closed roof makes it less likely of a pressured kick resulting in a turnover.