AFL 2017 - AFL Round 1

[MAGA]

Another 5U on Richmond. I think they are a gift.

Also .5U on QClash being the closest match of the round at $9

Get around me

 

[Oraz]

Any thoughts on today's games?


North v West Coast

Many expecting a big eagles win here, perhaps a bit of a trap (are north that bad? will their young players take the game on/put up a fight?)

Adelaide vs GWS

Was leaning Adelaide but the hot weather may give GWS a slight advantage (due to greater midfield depth?)

Freo v Geelong

Line coming in, Freo now +8.5

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Any thoughts on today's games?


North v West Coast

Many expecting a big eagles win here, perhaps a bit of a trap (are north that bad? will their young players take the game on/put up a fight?)

Adelaide vs GWS

Was leaning Adelaide but the hot weather may give GWS a slight advantage (due to greater midfield depth?)

Freo v Geelong

Line coming in, Freo now +8.5

A day of upsets yesterday, makes it hard to back up today with any real confidence. Not sure the North vs. WC game is as cut and dry as it seems either. Cam McCarthy looked "on" in the JLT, kicking several goals. He's good for 2 or 3 today. The either under 39.5 in all three games (multi) is a bet that should get up, albeit, quite short. Good luck!

 

[The_Big_Ship]

WCE 40+
GWS o 15.5
Frem 1-39

@ 21.44

 

[Keystone agony]

North matchup well on the eagles and Goldstein in half form gives them ruck control over Vardy. Both have hard nosed midfielders.

I still think eagles pretty easy expecting guys like Shuey + Yeo to cut them up and smaller forwards like Lecras, Hill, Cripps to have fairly big days.

Can AA ST and Robbie Tarrant contain Darling and Kennedy? great battle ahead.


Can certainly see Freo and Adelaide winning today but it is hard to see so many upsets in the one week.

 

[Keystone agony]

Anyone done some wicked arbs for me with disposals like i did for them?

 

[Oraz]

0.5u North Qtr Time Line +4.5 @ 1.97
1u GWS @ 1.85
1u Freo +14.5 @ 1.95

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Anyone done some wicked arbs for me with disposals like i did for them?

having a bit of a look now, havent found much like the earlier games but if u wanna take a small risk u can take Laird 30+ on bet365 @3.35 and Laird under 28.5 on SB @1.87 and hope he doesnt hit 29

 

[GoodesStuff]

Can certainly see Freo and Adelaide winning today but it is hard to see so many upsets in the one week.

Yesterday's results don't make Freo or Adelaide winning today any more or less likely.

 

[ricardogp]

Very blustery here in Perth. Not sure what the expected total is between Freo & Geelong on a normal day but conditions are expected to continue into the afternoon.

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[targett]

having a bit of a look now, havent found much like the earlier games but if u wanna take a small risk u can take Laird 30+ on bet365 @3.35 and Laird under 28.5 on SB @1.87 and hope he doesnt hit 29

you would be surprised how often this occurs.Twice last year for me.No Go Zone

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Hrovat <75.5 DT 1.87 (Crown)
0.5U Motlop <87.5 DT 1.87 (Crown)
0.5u M.Johnson >69.5 DT 1.87 (Crown)
1U Hampton <22.5 1.87 (Sports)

$134 S.Hill 25 club 1.87 (BET365)
$116 S.Hill <26.5 2.15 (Sports)

 

[Keystone agony]

Yesterday's results don't make Freo or Adelaide winning today any more or less likely.

Never said it did

 

[Keystone agony]

GWS having this 'great midfield depth' and quality is so over rated.

They're weakness this year is lack of depth.

With Coniglio, Deledio and Whitfield all out for long periods of time. They have D.Shiel, Ward and Kelly which as a starting onball brigade is mediocre in comparison to many others. They are then using an out of form Scully and 1st gamer starting the wings in Taranto. Their backups after that are Griffen(Last legs) and M.Kennedy who has played 3 games, D.Smith who is more of a forward and not spent much time midfield at AFL level. Greene can go in there but is important forward and hasnt played midfield for a while.

Everyone IMO is getting carried away with this GWS side it isnt as good as what people think especially when Deledio, Whitfield and Coniglio out. Dont get me wrong its an awesome best 22 when all playing and up and about. Wilsons also another best 22 been left out due to not enough match time.

 

[benno_]

Anyone done some wicked arbs for me with disposals like i did for them?

Its usually hard for multiple people to get on arbs, especially with disposal markets. I've noticed the markets price is very sensitive with fairly large bets and once 1-2 people bet heavily on it, it changes pretty fast.

 

[benno_]

Fyfe over 26.5 disposals @1.67 (topsport)

 

[Keystone agony]

Fyfe over 26.5 disposals @1.67 (topsport)

Ill have to look at Topsport now didnt realise they did disposal markets

I put 3-400 on a few yday and they didnt move but i guess once the next person gets on they get sussed and drop price.

Also some subscribers also rely on arba to make a profit cant remember which one i was with for free for a wek but thats all they relied on and some inside horse tips

 

[Robo87]

anyone fancy lead changes during the GWS v Adel? i rekon its going to be a fluctuating game.
1u wire to wire 'any other result' @2.10 SB

Also Walker is a late out for Adelaide

 

[Macpotata]

Crows to win for me. One unit. Eddie b to have a blinder.

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Adelaide +6.5 @ $1.97, 1u

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[ricardogp]

1u Adelaide with Tabtouch special @ $2.27


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[Macpotata]

.15 units on crows 40+ at 8.50
.15 units freo 40+ vs cats

 

[mookieb]

Yeah because a sample size of 4 can definitely be extrapolated out

Can certainly see Freo and Adelaide winning today but it is hard to see so many upsets in the one week.

Thinking their might be some similarities between Hawks and Geelong. Hawks got killed on the spread and fast moving possession game and think Geelong after a lacklustre pre-season might struggle as well with their game plan. Don't rate Freo, but Geelong have a bit of an ordinary team named. Ended up just hedging the game with all the promo's and hoping for a close game (and over 60 points each).

 

[Oraz]

GWS look cooked, struggling with the heat i think

2u Live bet Adelaide @ 1.60

 

[benno_]

Fyfe most DT points Group 1 $9.5 (Lux)

Group 1 is Fyfe, Dangerfield, Neale, Selwood, Duncan, Hill, Mundy, Blicavs.

Fyfe is more a Supercoach player, but definitely overs at that price, will come down to him and Danger imo.