AFL 2017 - AFL Round 4

[mookieb]

Added another unit on GWS vs Port. Ryder is out who is arguably Port's most important player. Hombsch is out as well which will cause problems with Patton likely to come in + Cameron and Lobbe.

It was a pretty hyped Showdown with alot on the line so a letdown wouldn't hurt, but it will be pretty hard to get within 4 goals of GWS at home regardless.

 

[mookieb]

Swans line out to +17.5 (SB)...Do the swans have more injuries?

Tippett is a chance to return, but i'm speculating that Sydney might not rate their chances of victory that highly and give players like Papley and Rohan a week in the NEAFL and then have a massive crack against GWS in the Derby the following week.

They have a ton of inexperienced players and WC while they lost kicked very poorly and looked good before the rain came down in the 2nd half.

It's a 5 day break for WC, but Sydney only get a 5 1/2 day break and have to fly out so can't see any great advantage to Sydney in that regard.

I'm on WC -10.5 and -11.5 and think they will win easily.

 

[Jugada]

Im leaning heavily towards Swans at the line. Eagles haven't looked that great to start the year either really

 

[benji21]

Which games?

Think Adelaide and Gws games looks good.
also wouldn't surprise me if the Melbourne game goes over now Freo are playing with a little more aggression think its 179.5 at ladbrokes

 

[wizzard400]

I like the Bulldogs line of -23.5 @ 1.92

Need to have a good look at the other games before I decide whether they're punt worthy I think

 

[Lensen]

strange logic to suggest a 0-3 team would not give everything to stop being 0-4

 

[Johanpetro]

Am I crazy for liking the Fremantle +23.5 line A LOT?

No Gawn, Lewis and Hogan against a Freo team who just knocked off the reigning premiers.

Any input on this? Cheers.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Am I crazy for liking the Fremantle +23.5 line A LOT?

No Gawn, Lewis and Hogan against a Freo team who just knocked off the reigning premiers.

Any input on this? Cheers.

Lewis and Hogan weren't a factor last week against Geelong, and Gawn was gone fairly early in that game, yet the game was in the balance for a long way. Poor kicking lost the game for Melbourne. Geelong have been fairly lucky to get over the line in their wins. They haven't played four solid quarters. When Gold Coast can get done by 100 points one week and come out and knock off Hawthorn by 80+ points the next, well, consistency isn't playing a part in results - yet! Freo are in the same boat. They get slaughtered one week and come out and play like a totally different team the next. Six changes were made, but they were kids. No one expected them to beat the Bulldogs. It could all swing back the other way again this week. The let down after Freo's win, together with the travel factor, puts Melbourne in good stead, I reckon, even without three of their stars playing.

 

[CarterS]

Im leaning heavily towards Swans at the line. Eagles haven't looked that great to start the year either really

Am I crazy for liking the Fremantle +23.5 line A LOT?

No Gawn, Lewis and Hogan against a Freo team who just knocked off the reigning premiers.

Any input on this? Cheers.

Agree with the above poster!

It's all down to opinion but mine is to be wary of the 'bounce back factor' in these games. Situation seems ripe to me for WC to fill up and build a bit of confidence against a young team who has been poor.

Melbourne looked very good on the weekend and were probably the better team vs a top 4 contender. Freo caught the Dogs off guard but Melbourne will be preparing for them at their best.

I am on WC line and probably no bet in the other game.

 

[wizzard400]

strange logic to suggest a 0-3 team would not give everything to stop being 0-4

I'm not suggesting that at all.

I'm talking about the Bulldogs on their home deck coming off a loss. They'll be hungry and want to rebound quickly and adamantly.

This is a top 4 side going up against a team a lot of people were tipping to finish bottom 4. North haven't exactly set the world on fire, but hey, if you rate them that's your prerogative and I've got nothing against it.

I just don't see them coming close to the Dogs.

 

[free at last]

Think Adelaide and Gws games looks good.
also wouldn't surprise me if the Melbourne game goes over now Freo are playing with a little more aggression think its 179.5 at ladbrokes

CB at 177.5....I reckon this game might go over too.

 

[Lensen]

I'm not suggesting that at all.

I'm talking about the Bulldogs on their home deck coming off a loss. They'll be hungry and want to rebound quickly and adamantly.

This is a top 4 side going up against a team a lot of people were tipping to finish bottom 4. North haven't exactly set the world on fire, but hey, if you rate them that's your prerogative and I've got nothing against it.

I just don't see them coming close to the Dogs.

wasn't talking about your post, the swans one

 

[Oraz]

Some terrific value in this weeks games

Might be bias here but really like essendon at the line (+38.5)
I think the market has overreacted to Essendon's loss last week. If the conditions were dry last Sunday, Essendon would be coming into this game undefeated and the line would be a lot shorter. Crows without McGovern and Jenkinson and are also coming off a showdown - might be susceptible here.


Also Really like the saints especially if they get Steven and Armitage back - lot's of value here.

Also liking Hawthorn at the line and Brisbane Lions against the Tigers

 

[JHF1870]

I reckon WC are an absolute shoe in for this game, double it up with Essendon on the line.


Thinking of giving this a go. $1000 probably too much to invest for 3bn, but might go for $1.00 to win a cool 3mil

 

[CarterS]

Some terrific value in this weeks games

Might be bias here but really like essendon at the line (+38.5)
I think the market has overreacted to Essendon's loss last week. If the conditions were dry last Sunday, Essendon would be coming into this game undefeated and the line would be a lot shorter. Crows without McGovern and Jenkinson and are also coming off a showdown - might be susceptible here.


Also Really like the saints especially if they get Steven and Armitage back - lot's of value here.

Also liking Hawthorn at the line and Brisbane Lions against the Tigers

Definitely see where you are coming from but I could see something like this happening: Adelaide up by about 3 goals all night and then kicking a bunch in junk time and covering the line with an after the siren throw-away goal

Agree on St Kilda, Hawks and Brisbane. Always reluctant to back my own team as I think I am bias but my best win of the year so far was 4-1 on us to beat GC Round 1.

I don't usually get very fancy but I am looking at maybe Hawks to lead at Qtr-time and then lose, $4.50. I think they will come out firing but whether they can lead at quarter time is another thing.

Brisbane have gone above 3-1 in the betting while Kangas have come under 4-1. Looks like Majak will be back.

 

[mookieb]

strange logic to suggest a 0-3 team would not give everything to stop being 0-4

I'm sure Sydney would love to win and go 1-3 but can they? WC have won 16 of their last 17 regular season games and tend to destroy average teams (which Sydney are currently) by an average of 60 points last year. They just lost at home to a Collingwood team missing several stars and most pundits wouldn't have Collingwood in the top 8.

Now Sydney could rush back Papley, Rohan and Tippett and try and pinch an unlikely win and deal with potential issues with soreness and the travel or play some guys in the ressies for some fitness and go all out for the Derby at home. I know what I would do.

 

[langdon19]

Think Adelaide and Gws games looks good.
also wouldn't surprise me if the Melbourne game goes over now Freo are playing with a little more aggression think its 179.5 at ladbrokes

Don't forget mgovern and jenkins out, ess are playing ok.

 

[TheScream]

Just waiting on the hawks line to blow out to 20 points plus and taking them. Everyone will remember the suns smashing but they took it up to the crows (one of, if not the best team in the comp) and were leading for much of that game. They also had the same amount of scoring shots as essendon in round 1. Last season the hawks were 2nd in accuracy, so expect this trend of inaccuracy to reverse at some point. In terms of contested possession, which they got smashed in last week, they equaled adelaide in round 2, who are one of the best contested ball sides. Geelong are kicking insanely accurately atm (64.7%) that's unsustainable, they were only kicking at 50% last season which was not even in the top half. Hawks off an embarassing loss, how many times has this happened in the past where they were written off and they rebounded hard? Granted it's a different team but most of these players were champion players not that long ago. Add to that these games are usually tight, hawks +20 seems the contrarian pick of the round for me this week.

Also like the Saints, Carlton and the North line. How are the suns favoured? The only away game they have played this year they got belted by 102 points plus they've lost to the lions!

 

[mookieb]

Not sure its the Saints 65% sr at Etihad last year but more about Pies 1/7.The pies have struggled there in recent times.The inclusion of Elliot this week and Daniel Wellls 50/50 is a nice boost combined with a 9 day break.

Am I the only one who rates the Saints? Lost to Melbourne week 1 and seemed to have fallen out of favour even though they almost beat WC in Perth without Roo and Armitage.

They finished the season winning 8W 2L at Etihad only losing to top 8 teams NM and Syd. Went and picked up Steele, Brown, Stevens and get Carlisle back.

Their midfield has struggled a bit but with Steven and Armitage returning think they should win this one.

I'm on for 1u for the win and 1u +2.5.

 

[big_bazza]

You can, but the markets aren't usually available until late in the week. Normally comes out on Friday morning I think

**** yeah i thought they must have stopped doing it, what banner is it under do you know mate? i thought it would be in player markets but it wasnt in there when i looked on the weekend.

 

[maskmcgee]

WC on a 5 days break travel back from Victoria. If the lines get out to 20pts then Sydney is worth a bet.

I fail to see why people think Sydney are going to lose this game. West Coast beat one team that hasn't won a game, almost lost to St. Kilda in perth and lost to Richmond. Sydney got beaten narrowly by Port who are clearly much better than the last two years, lost to the reigning premiers, and lost by a point to Collingwood. West Coast sure haven't beaten anyone of note in any convincing fasion. In fact if St. Kilda kicked straight they'd be 1-2 now. If anything Sydney's done better. They just haven't got a win for it.

 

[TheScream]

I fail to see why people think Sydney are going to lose this game. West Coast beat one team that hasn't won a game, almost lost to St. Kilda in perth and lost to Richmond. Sydney got beaten narrowly by Port who are clearly much better than the last two years, lost to the reigning premiers, and lost by a point to Collingwood. West Coast sure haven't beaten anyone of note in any convincing fasion. In fact if St. Kilda kicked straight they'd be 1-2 now. If anything Sydney's done better. They just haven't got a win for it.

Put the house on it mate. They're due.

 

[TheScream]

I fail to see why people think Sydney are going to lose this game. West Coast beat one team that hasn't won a game, almost lost to St. Kilda in perth and lost to Richmond. Sydney got beaten narrowly by Port who are clearly much better than the last two years, lost to the reigning premiers, and lost by a point to Collingwood. West Coast sure haven't beaten anyone of note in any convincing fasion. In fact if St. Kilda kicked straight they'd be 1-2 now. If anything Sydney's done better. They just haven't got a win for it.

1. Not so sure 28 points is a narrow loss
2. The reigning premiers that just got pumped by fremantle?
3. Collingwood was also winless, before they played sydney
4. It's round 3, how the fk can you bring strength of schedule into it? In fact the Eagles have had one of the harder fixture lists imo.
5. You could also say had the eagles kicked straight they would've beaten Richmond.

Confirmation bias at its finest.

 

[iluvparis]

Some terrific value in this weeks games

Might be bias here but really like essendon at the line (+38.5)
I think the market has overreacted to Essendon's loss last week. If the conditions were dry last Sunday, Essendon would be coming into this game undefeated and the line would be a lot shorter. Crows without McGovern and Jenkinson and are also coming off a showdown - might be susceptible here.

 

[TheLP]

Am I the only one who rates the Saints? Lost to Melbourne week 1 and seemed to have fallen out of favour even though they almost beat WC in Perth without Roo and Armitage.

They finished the season winning 8W 2L at Etihad only losing to top 8 teams NM and Syd. Went and picked up Steele, Brown, Stevens and get Carlisle back.

Their midfield has struggled a bit but with Steven and Armitage returning think they should win this one.

I'm on for 1u for the win and 1u +2.5.

I agree.

I am surprised Collingwood are rated the favourites for that game.