AFL 2017 - AFL Round 4

[Special Agent Utah]

Have had a good start to the year but had a nightmare round last week.

Thursday

West Coast @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)
West Coast @ $1.33 (Crown Bet Points Pile Up)
Sydney @ $3.60 (Tab Touch 60 Points and Lose Money Back)

Franklin -7.5 Fantasy Vs Lecca @ $1.88
Yeo under 90.5 @ $1.88
Lloyd under 95.5 @ $1.77
Mark LeCras 3 or more goals @ $2.75
Gaff more disposals than Josh Kennedy @ $1.70
D Hanners over 28.5 @ $1.90

 

[benno_]

Not seeing too much I like tonight for serious betting, so chucking this long shot Multi on for a bit of fun while watching the game:

0.2U @251
Buddy Most Goals/Parker Most Disposals/Eagles 1-39

EDIT: Also going to put 0.5U on just the Parker Most disposals @23

 

[free at last]

Same here... Wasn't necessarily going to load up on it but don't see where this bullishness on gold coast is coming from. Carlton were pretty competitive against Melbourne weren't they (In dry weather) and Melbourne are a better side than gold coast. What's the justification for losing to Brisbane? I know they had alot more inside 50s but they must not have been very good entries as Brisbane have probably one of the worst defences in the league. Carlton have been good for 2/3 weeks whereas Gold Coast 1/3 weeks and I tend to rate consistency alot more. I'll probably lay off the side and just take the under

Probably by the way GC totally thrashed Hawthorn....The suns were pretty good early last year too then the injuries just smashed them........Having swallow back who is a dead set gun is pretty handy.On talent,GC should win this game quite comfortably.

 

[karaoke]

FYI - topbetta doing player disposals o/u

 

[Hu$tler]

Thoughts on tonight's game....

Found $2.10 1-39 eagles win sounds decent....

 

[jwint43]

how many times do you think I can get away with putting $50 on the roughie in that tabtouch special and doing no other bets with them before they ban my account?

 

[benno_]

2U @5 (Ladbrokes player bets)
T.Lynch 3+ goals/J.Riewoldt 3+ Goals

Same multi would be paying $2.20 at SB. Riewoldt vs Brisbane and Lynch vs Carlton, both should have the opportunity to snag a few.

 

[Jugada]

how many times do you think I can get away with putting $50 on the roughie in that tabtouch special and doing no other bets with them before they ban my account?

Probably twice more as they are binning the promo after this round

 

[Special Agent Utah]

how many times do you think I can get away with putting $50 on the roughie in that tabtouch special and doing no other bets with them before they ban my account?

This is the last round and they only offer 2 games per round so probably not an issue now

 

[jwint43]

Probably twice more as they are binning the promo after this round

I see. I'm not surprised that they are ending it.

 

[wizzard400]

Not much I like tonight other than West Coast 1-39

Other bets I'm thinking for the weekend:
Carlton H2H @ 2.25
Western Bulldogs line -23.5 @1.92

Probably need to have a good look at the other games before I decide on anything else.

EDIT: liking GWS line now too.

 

[Vhaluus]

how many times do you think I can get away with putting $50 on the roughie in that tabtouch special and doing no other bets with them before they ban my account?

I've done it every game I've been able to this year and am still betting. I know others that got banned in less than a week.

 

[Oraz]

$50 West Coast @ 1.80 (lad brokes)
$22-$23 on Sydney @ 3.84 (boosted odds - sportsbet)

Guaranteed $16-$17 profit, not much but something you could use on a multi or to build your bank roll.

 

[Vhaluus]

My gut instinct for Port vs GWS was that GWS were going to steamroll.

but the more I think about it the more I think Port might not be bad value.

GWS struggled against the Crows because the Crows tackled and pressured. Port win their games off pressure and contested football.

Will be interesting to see if GWS have it in them to win tough, only time I can really recall them doing so was the final vs Sydney last year.

 

[Oraz]

Plays so far

GC -4.5
Essendon +37.5

Will wait for final teams before deciding on magpies v saints

 

[Jugada]

All over the Swans tonight both H2H and at the line.

Swans form isn't as bad as people make out. Game was in the balance halfway through the last quarter vs the Dogs 2 weeks ago when they were a man down from the 1st quarter. Got jumped by the Pies but i rate Collingwood this year so that loss isn't that bad anyway for me. Eagles have not been anything special - lost to Richmond last week and played awful and were lucky to escape with the W in the last quarter against the Saints the week before

 

[benji21]

Any thoughts on Gaff for most disposals and 35+, Hes $3.6 and $2.8 for each of those

 

[mookieb]

All over the Swans tonight both H2H and at the line.

Swans form isn't as bad as people make out. Game was in the balance halfway through the last quarter vs the Dogs 2 weeks ago when they were a man down from the 1st quarter. Got jumped by the Pies but i rate Collingwood this year so that loss isn't that bad anyway for me. Eagles have not been anything special - lost to Richmond last week and played awful and were lucky to escape with the W in the last quarter against the Saints the week before

I'm the opposite. Think they have a really weak squad (for them) and now lose Naismith as well as Tippett. Papley surely will be underdone.

Eagles are 16 from 17 regular season games and often they will be average away and fantastic at home. On paper they have a far superior squad. Swans have a great record against WC though and the line has blown out so partially hedged with a potential middle and went for the unders as I think it's a good bet, but far more likely if Swans play well. Also a bit concerned about the 5 day break.

2u WC -10.5
2u WC -11.5
1u Syd +22.5
1u WC vs Syd under 179.5
20 BB WC over 3.5 goals per quarter $16
0.25 Mitchell 30 Buddy 3 goals $4
0.5u WC + Gaff 29.5 - $3.25

Plus the TT and TAB promo's on WC.

IF you like the Swans $4.30 for 1-39 seems a good price.

 

[benji21]

apparently mcgovern may be swung forward, hes 34 dollars WCE FGS with ladbrokes

 

[langdon19]

apparently mcgovern may be swung forward, hes 34 dollars WCE FGS with ladbrokes

43 tabtouch

 

[benji21]

43 tabtouch

damn all good they don't like me

 

[benno_]

0.5U Gov FGS @41 (tabtouch)

 

[X_box_X]

$385 Sydney +7.5 second half at $2.33 w Pinny (+19.5)
$500 WCE -18.5 at $1.90 w Bluebet

19 point win please.

 

[targett]

$385 Sydney +7.5 second half at $2.33 w Pinny (+19.5)
$500 WCE -18.5 at $1.90 w Bluebet

19 point win please.

So is this -18.5 + 19.5 second half

 

[X_box_X]

So is this -18.5 + 19.5 second half

full time.