Review 2017 in Review

[wayToGo_]

I don't think it takes a genius analyst to identify the reasons we didn't perform that well this year but after running some statistical comparisons against the other AFL teams and movement across the past 5 years I've noticed some things that people may be interested in. Firstly looking at the 2017 season:

• The top 6 teams (on the ladder) were also the 6 teams that gave away the most free kicks. Think this gives some indication of how these teams play. Geelong were also given the most frees, and Adelaide 3rd but Brisbane was 2nd for frees for so it probably doesn't tell us a lot. We were 2nd worst for Frees For (Hawthorn had the fewest of all! #nofreekickhawthorn).
• Contested football is still a massive indicator for success in football. Most of the teams in the top half were the best ball winners, whilst those down the bottom the worst ball winners. We were 2nd bottom! This trend is pretty similar for the past 5 seasons - the best teams are often the best contested ball winners and vice versa.
• The best uncontested teams on the other hand were grouped very much in the middle portion of the ladder this season with those at the top and bottom being fairly poor comparatively. Interestingly the top teams also generally had higher than average clangers (the frees against would account for most of that) and lower than average marks (they don't appear to be over using it).
• Unsurprisingly those at the top had the most average goals but Adelaide did smash everyone else (15.9), averaging almost two more goals per game than the next best teams (Geelong and Essendon). Freo was right at the bottom of goals per game (10.5).
• Adelaide also smashed goal assists, averaging 11.1 per game with Port the next best on 9.6. We were the clear worst at goal assists with 6.8 (Carlton 2nd worst with 7.3)
• Port and Adelaide also led inside 50s whilst we were 3rd worst. As mentioned previously, our marks inside 50 and efficiency inside 50 was the worst of all teams.
• We were also in the bottom 3 teams for tackles
• We were in the top 4 teams for hit-outs but only managed to be middle of the pack for both centre clearances and stoppages.

We finished top 4 in 13-15 and bottom 5 in 16-17. So what's changed?

• Our contested possession numbers have plummeted. What used to be a strength has become our biggest weakness for the past two seasons.
• We've remained ok at centre clearances but far poorer at winning stoppages.
• We've dropped 2-3 goals per game from our '13-'15 seasons whilst giving up far more than this to our opponents. We've also dropped 2-3 goal assists per game, and our marks inside 50 are also down by 2-3 per game.
• Our disposal efficiency was actually better the past two seasons but we made 8-10 more clangers per game (not free kicks!).
• Our rebound 50s and uncontested numbers haven't moved dramatically but we've had far less bounces from mid 2015 onwards than in previous seasons.
• Efficiency inside 50 has hit rock bottom this season. Supply (inside 50s) has been down but not by that much relatively.

What does it mean for 2018?

• We need to get back to contested football. If we win the ball the opposition doesn't.
• We need to be far more efficient inside 50. Our ball winners need to get rewarded for their hard efforts, not have it rebound back over their heads.

 

[Admiral Byng]

Sadly there is not a stat for skills. The one that counts for contested possessions is what I would call "first touch, first possession", similar to what they call a "one-touch player" in soccer. So often for us and other teams at the bottom of the ladder it is first touch = fumble and second touch = (contested) possession most often to the opposition.

My theory is that contested possession is not just a matter of effort, it is a matter of skill.

Getting away that quick handpass in the half/second window before touching the ball and being tackled. Slight fumble means tackle or smother. We pinball the ball around the pack with nobody quite being able to get a clean touch, until it lands in the hands of an opposition player who can, then it is gone.

There is not a stat for it. But IMHO this is what separates the top teams from the bottom teams.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think everyone will agree with me on here that everyone enjoyed this season compared to at year. 2017 was better than 2016 but not by a lot.

In 2016, we scored 1576 points at 71.6 points a game. Conceded 2119 points at 96.3 points a game with a % of 74.3% with an ageing squad.

In 2017, we scored 1560 points at 70.9 points a game. Conceded 2160 points at 98.1 points a game with a % of 74.4% with a much younger squad.

In hindsight 2016 and 2017 was no different % wise. The main difference was Freo won some close games. In which a few people enjoyed here. I still say the Round 3 game vs the Bulldogs at Subi was not only one of our best wins but one of those psychological wins we needed.

After being belted by Geelong by 40 points in round 1 and thumped by 89 points in round 2 vs Port, That 16 point win vs The dogs was a massive turn around. We carried that form in beating the demons by 2 points at the mcg the next week and beat North by 5 points playing the kids.

here some games that disappointed me such as the lions loss at Brisbane. Then Again, the lions loss wasn't a bad trade off as Freo beat the Demons and tigers the MCG, plus North at Docklands, All by under a goal.

Going to be realistic, I don't see freo getting a spot in the 8 next year. Another 5-8 wins next season is what I see freo getting unless we recruit and trade well.

 

[wayToGo_]

Sadly there is not a stat for skills. The one that counts for contested possessions is what I would call "first touch, first possession", similar to what they call a "one-touch player" in soccer. So often for us and other teams at the bottom of the ladder it is first touch = fumble and second touch = (contested) possession most often to the opposition.

My theory is that contested possession is not a matter of effort, it is a matter of skill.

Getting away that quick handpass in the half/second window before touching the ball and being tackled. Slight fumble means tackle or smother. We pinball the ball around the pack with nobody quite being able to get a clean touch, until it lands in the hands of an opposition player who can, then it is gone.

There is not a stat for it. But IMHO this is what separates the top teams from the bottom teams.

Yeah I also think teams are becoming far smarter about working defensively around stoppages. They set up to block outlet passes rather than all get drawn into contesting the ball (ie zone around the ball/cover the potential receivers). In contrast it infuriated me how often our players would get drawn too far toward the ball leaving an outlet pass over the top resulting in an easy clearance and score against. Plenty of teams also mastered sharking the tap. If you watch Richmond at a f50 stoppage, you'll notice they often don't even nominate a ruck and instead just spread around the opposition ruck to shark it instead - which they scored plenty from with their small forward line.

I'm pretty sure there is a first possession stat but it isn't released publicly. My gut feel is our first possession numbers are also down on previous years. From memory, Neale was one of the best (if not the best) first possession player in the AFL a couple of years back. When he's not at the stoppage to win the hard ball/first possession I think we suffer (likewise with no Mundy and Barlow to cover the slack like in previous years). We need others to step up. There was also some articles a couple of years back about how the contested possession stat is misleading, based on some things the late Phil Walsh and the founder of Champion Data said about it consisting of too many different types of possessions (they also talked about skills like you mention). And if you look at that one stat in isolation I'd agree with that but we weren't that bad for contested marks, free kicks against etc so I'd be surprised if our first possessions and hard ball gets aren't way down in the past couple of years - so I think it is a fair indicator for us - so it's a combination of both skills and effort imo.

Anyway I think we can all agree we need to be far better at stoppages. Perhaps no coincidence we said goodbye to our stoppages coach. Let's hope our other coaches are on to it for 2018.

 

[Unique Name]

Now this might sound silly..... but I can't believe that we're only 4-5 goals a game off top 4 level scoring. We have been genuinely horrendous at times this year. I thought the gap would be bigger.

 

[G Mus]

Sadly there is not a stat for skills. The one that counts for contested possessions is what I would call "first touch, first possession", similar to what they call a "one-touch player" in soccer. So often for us and other teams at the bottom of the ladder it is first touch = fumble and second touch = (contested) possession most often to the opposition.

My theory is that contested possession is not a matter of effort, it is a matter of skill.

Getting away that quick handpass in the half/second window before touching the ball and being tackled. Slight fumble means tackle or smother. We pinball the ball around the pack with nobody quite being able to get a clean touch, until it lands in the hands of an opposition player who can, then it is gone.

There is not a stat for it. But IMHO this is what separates the top teams from the bottom teams.

Assisted metres gained is a good one for assessing the true quality of a cp -> effective clearance to a player able to do damage

Tom Mitchell is the king

 

[Admiral Byng]

Assisted metres gained is a good one for assessing the true quality of a cp -> effective clearance to a player able to do damage

Tom Mitchell is the king

Do you know where we rank on that stat?

I'm guessing it is bottom 4 or 5...

 

[G Mus]

Do you know where we rank on that stat?

I'm guessing it is bottom 4 or 5...

Not sure, it's not public that I can see
Interestingly it only counts when your teammate recieves the ball uncontested

 

[Freomaniac]

Now this might sound silly..... but I can't believe that we're only 4-5 goals a game of top 4 level scoring. We have been genuinely horrendous at times this year. I thought the gap would be bigger.

well in the last seasons we are averaging around 71 points or 10 goals 11 behinds a game and around 97 points a game or 14 goals and 13 behinds a game.

As I said, the difference between this yea and last year was this year was we won a few close games.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

Yeah I also think teams are becoming far smarter about working defensively around stoppages. They set up to block outlet passes rather than all get drawn into contesting the ball (ie zone around the ball/cover the potential receivers). In contrast it infuriated me how often our players would get drawn too far toward the ball leaving an outlet pass over the top resulting in an easy clearance and score against. Plenty of teams also mastered sharking the tap. If you watch Richmond at a f50 stoppage, you'll notice they often don't even nominate a ruck and instead just spread around the opposition ruck to shark it instead - which they scored plenty from with their small forward line.

Yes!
My daughter and I commented at Subi this year how often there would be a core of purple at the ball at a stoppage that then a circle of the oppo's colour on the outside of the stoppage. Its like they were Indians circling our wagons in some games.
Our stoppage work seems a bit naive at times: a little bit "see ball, get ball" instead of being about trying to make life difficult for the opposition.
I'm sure that we were trying to do something different but, for whatever reason, it wasn't getting through.

 

[FreoMonocle]

A shame the stats aren't broken down for the areas where they happen (?). But it would presumably confirm that tackles, turnovers and other indicators were woeful in our forward line, that it didn't look as bad for midfield and defence.

 

[Belnakor]

Interestingly the top teams also generally had higher than average clangers (the frees against would account for most of that) and lower than average marks (they don't appear to be over using it).

Clangers are hugely correlated to number of disposals. Top teams have more clangers because they have more kicks. iirc one year the number of clangers had Ablett Ranked no.1. Probably close to the most useless stat in the game the way they calculate it. Turnovers causing goals / opponent meters gained would be a better stat

 

[theGav56]

Regarding the contested stats, I am hoping/expecting Blakely becomes a midfield fixture for us to help address this.

Actually I am quite happy with how he is being developed, and especially spending time at hb. Builds him nicely and gives some opportunity for him to physically develop. But he is a midfield beast at heart.

 

[wehavethepassion]

I don't think it takes a genius analyst to identify the reasons we didn't perform that well this year but after running some statistical comparisons against the other AFL teams and movement across the past 5 years I've noticed some things that people may be interested in. Firstly looking at the 2017 season

• We need to get back to contested football. If we win the ball the opposition doesn't.
• We need to be far more efficient inside 50. Our ball winners need to get rewarded for their hard efforts, not have it rebound back over their heads.

With Blakely, Fyfe and Neale getting to sony, bennell and Hill Bros there is enough elite kicks there to land it on chests or kick to advantage in our forward 50.

 

[LeftFootBanana]

Some less stat driven observations:

• We found a bloke who can replace Sandi as a genuinely dominant number one ruckman;
• We found a defender who has the kicking and marking skills to fill the void that Duffield left;
• Hamling is developing into Elvis Mk II;
• Bennell finally got on the park and showed he's every bit as skilled as we remembered;
• B Hill is a running machine - some ropey disposal but still adds a lot to the midfield;
• Sonny is a gun midfielder;
• Tabs has improved from twelve months ago and still has serious upside;
• We got games into Tucker, Hughes, Grey, Weller;
• Cox can take a grab;
• Blakely is becoming a genuine gun;
• Fyfe is back;
• Some of our performances on the road were encouraging;

It wasn't s great season but we probably now have the core of a team for the next five or six years. Yes we probably still need to find a power forward and some more midfield depth but we DO have some decent talent on our list.

If we trade and draft well next year will be OK.