AFL 2018 - AFL Round 1

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$1.20|$1.22|$1.20|$1.22|$1.22|$1.20
\Carlton |$4.60|$4.35|$4.65|$4.25|$4.35|$4.60
\|line:28.5|line:26.5|line:29.5|line:26.5|line:27.5|line:28.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$2.10|$2.05|$2.11|$2.20|$2.10|$2.10
\Adelaide |$1.75|$1.78|$1.74|$1.67|$1.75|$1.73
\|line:4.5|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:7.5|line:4.5|line:5.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$1.28|$1.31|$1.28|$1.28|$1.30|$1.28
\Brisbane |$3.75|$3.50|$3.75|$3.65|$3.60|$3.65
\|line:24.5|line:22.5|line:24.5|line:25.5|line:22.5|line:24.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$1.22|$1.32|$1.26|$1.22|$1.25|$1.28
\Fremantle |$4.30|$3.44|$3.90|$4.25|$4.00|$3.65
\|line:25.5|line:21.5|line:24.5|line:27.5|line:24.5|line:24.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$1.86|$1.85|$1.85|$1.85|$1.85|$1.87|$1.80
\North Melb. |$2.00|$1.95|$1.97|$1.95|$1.95|$2.00
\|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:2.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Hawthorn |$2.00|$1.87|$2.00|$1.95|$2.00|$1.85
\Collingwood |$1.80|$1.93|$1.82|$1.85|$1.82|$1.95
\|line:C3.5|line:H0.5|line:C2.5|line:C1.5|line:C2.5|line:N/L

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.40|$1.45|$1.44|$1.44|$1.44|$1.42
\West.Bulldogs |$3.00|$2.75|$2.80|$2.80|$2.80|$2.85
\|line:16.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:16.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$2.25|$2.35|$2.20|$2.35|$2.30|$2.20
\Geelong |$1.65|$1.60|$1.68|$1.60|$1.62|$1.65
\|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:6.5|line:9.5|line:8.5|line:7.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast |$2.45|$2.60|$2.50|$2.50|$2.55|$2.35
\Sydney |$1.55|$1.50|$1.54|$1.53|$1.52|$1.57
\|line:10.5|line:12.5|line:10.5|line:12.5|line:11.5|line:12.5

ODDS AT 23.15 ON 4/3/18

 

[puntking]

hawkes overs imo always beat pies

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah I'm a little surprised the Hawks aren't faves too - back half too last year was actually pretty good in the end wasn't it?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Yeah I'm a little surprised the Hawks aren't faves too - back half too last year was actually pretty good in the end wasn't it?

Was about to say the same thing, we generally play well against the pies, although blew a 35 point half time lead last year.

I think we are value for sure.

 

[Jugada]

Hawks have a good recent record against pretty much everyone. Wouldnt be going back further than last year for H2H stats with them though given the list changes.

Both teams fully fit id have the Pies as favourites though

 

[Jugada]

Geelong, Bulldogs, Adelaide and North the early value for me

 

[capperscap]

What are peoples thoughts on eagles v swans?

Eagles, playing at home, new ground, will be super motivated for this game. Sydney always seem to start the year slowly. HOWEVER, on paper Sydney looks like such a superior team.
Who wins here?
My early leans

Adelaide -5.5 at Essendon
Hawthorn -0.5 v Collingwood
Bulldogs +14.5 at GWS
Melbourne +8.5 v Geelong

 

[Jugada]

Both teams will be equally motivated to win. Not really any point weighing thst into your decision

 

[langdon19]

West coast get a 4 goal ump advantage

 

[iluvparis]

Hawks have a good recent record against pretty much everyone. Wouldnt be going back further than last year for H2H stats with them though given the list changes.

Both teams fully fit id have the Pies as favourites though

Squiggle starting position has the Pies a few points ahead of the Hawks so price is probably reasonably fair.

I just don't rate Collingwood ever and think the Hawks were better than people gave them credit for last year.

 

[HeathySure]

The Hawks are a good thing. We have no forward line and our spine is terrible. Don't fall for this good list thing we are are a rabble and will be as long as that man is coach

 

[Macpotata]

Bombers vs Crows will be high scoring. I like the Bombers, but can't bet against the crows. Take the over. Will be a shootout.


Based on what? Based on **** you I said so.

 

[2nd_2_None]

Bombers vs Crows will be high scoring. I like the Bombers, but can't bet against the crows. Take the over. Will be a shootout.


Based on what? Based on **** you I said so.

Well that esculated quickly...didnt even make it to a response post

 

[mookieb]

Yeah I'm a little surprised the Hawks aren't faves too - back half too last year was actually pretty good in the end wasn't it?

Back half was outstanding with multiple players out (Rioli, Frawley, Birchall etc). Beat Syd twice and Ade away. Drew with GWS and Danger had a monster game forward and they still only won by 3. Mind you Coll finished in some better form towards the end, but with a dysfunctional forward line and a few injury concerns I would have the Hawks ahead.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Back half was outstanding with multiple players out (Rioli, Frawley, Birchall etc). Beat Syd twice and Ade away. Drew with GWS and Danger had a monster game forward and they still only won by 3. Mind you Coll finished in some better form towards the end, but with a dysfunctional forward line and a few injury concerns I would have the Hawks ahead.

Hawks should be 3 goals faves.
Jumping all over that, Crows will beat Bombers..

Nice little 2 leg multi to start the year off.

 

[PHX]

Bombers vs Crows will be high scoring. I like the Bombers, but can't bet against the crows. Take the over. Will be a shootout.


Based on what? Based on **** you I said so.

Listen pal, I'll tell you based on what.

Adelaide have scored 171, 143, 153 and 123 in their last 4 games against the Dons.

The Adelaide over could be safer than the Total over.

 

[langdon19]

First round usually produces higher scores
Last year the bookies accounted for this

 

[Macpotata]

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-afl-finals-week2.1176565/page-2#post-52404496



BOOM!!!!!!!


I retired long ago.

 

[chrisdon16]

First round usually produces higher scores
Last year the bookies accounted for this

This^

I remember vividly Round 1 last year nearly all games covered the over comfortably. But I don't think the books accounted for it last season. The only game I can remember off the top of my head was Carlton Richmond was around 176.5. Will be interested to see what they do for R1 this season.

 

[capperscap]

What are people's thoughts on north v suns? at suns

edit: at Cairns

 

[mookieb]

Danger injured today and Ablett injured previously so not an ideal preparation for Geelong. They're performance also tends to be worse at the MCG compared to SS so jumped on Melb +8.5.

Edit: Danger confirmed out round 1 with a hammy and Melb now +3.5.

 

[mookieb]

What are people's thoughts on north v suns? at suns

edit: at Cairns

GC for me is the bet of the round so I jumped on awhile ago at +1.5. It's closer to a home game for GC and hopefully it's nice and hot and humid.

I consider NM likely for the spoon and GC with a new coach to be better than most punters expectations. I certainly think they have a significantly better top 22. NM have been thrashed in both JLT games and are leaking goals against GC who thrashed a weak Geel and lineball with Bris.

Unfortunately though Martin and Hanley are injured today so that takes a bit of gloss off.

 

[maskmcgee]

Richmond -29.5
St. Kilda -23.5
GWS -14.5
Sydney -12.5
Hawthorn -0.5
Port Adelaide -22.5
Melbourne WIN

= $94.09

Surley the odds should be shorter than that?
0.1U

 

[capperscap]

Richmond -29.5
St. Kilda -23.5
GWS -14.5
Sydney -12.5
Hawthorn -0.5
Port Adelaide -22.5
Melbourne WIN

= $94.09

Surley the odds should be shorter than that?
0.1U

Like.
Only concern is St Kilda.
I have a feeling brisbane will be super competitive in that game.

 

[Hellboy101]

Port and swans to win multi. First bet for round 1. Odds of $2 at Neds.